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Government Foresight:
Towards a Maturity Index for Abu Dhabi Police, UAE
Research Proposal for DBA Thesis
Sulaiman Alkaabi
Cohort 13
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Table of Contents
1. Introduction.................................................................................................................3
1.1 Importance of the Study....................................................................................3
1.2 Background........................................................................................................3
1.3 Aim and Objectives...........................................................................................4
2. Literature Review........................................................................................................5
2.1 Strategic Foresight Concept..............................................................................6
2.2 Strategic Foresight in the Government..............................................................6
2.3 Practicing Strategic Foresight in the Government..............................................7
3. Research Questions and Hypotheses.........................................................................7
4. Conceptual Model........................................................................................................8
4.1 Independent Variables......................................................................................8
4.1.1 Demographic.........................................................................................8
4.1.2 Administrative.....................................................................................10
4.1.3 Awareness...........................................................................................11
4.1.4 Foresight Framework Understanding.................................................12
5. Methodology...............................................................................................................14
5.1 Data Collection Instruments............................................................................14
5.2 Population and Sample....................................................................................15
5.3 Limits to Generalisation..................................................................................15
5.4 Data Analysis...................................................................................................15
4.4.1 Statistical Techniques.......................................................................16
4.4.2 Validity and Reliability....................................................................16
6. Pilot Testing and Measuring Validity......................................................................17
7. Ethical Issues..............................................................................................................17
8. Contributions.............................................................................................................18
9. Summary....................................................................................................................18
10. Research Time Plan.................................................................................................19
References......................................................................................................................20
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1. Introduction
Strategic foresight is an action-oriented instrument for policy-making aimed at
supporting strategic thinking and decision-making by considering alternative futures that
might affect today’s decisions (Voros, 2003). It is characterised by a long-term,
interdisciplinary, participative, and communicative perspective (Habegger, 2010). Rohrbeck
(2010) identified strategic foresight attempts that enable organisations to detect changes
early, interpret the consequences, and respond quickly and effectively to emerging threats and
opportunities. Rohrbeck and Schwarz (2013) further defined several key drivers suggesting
that strategic foresight should attract government policymakers and help them through an
enhanced capacity to perceive change, interpret and respond to change, propose responses,
influence other actors, and promote organisational learning. Strategic foresight programmes
are often motivated by the need to understand the potential implications of emerging
technological trajectories and overcome any limits to preparing for an unknown future
(Tsoukas & Shepherd, 2004). Vecchiato and Roveda (2010) also suggested that uncertainty is
one of the main generic motivations for conducting strategic foresight work.
The term “foresight” emerged in the late 1980s to describe activities informing
decision-makers about improving the inputs for an organisation’s long-term future (Keenan,
Abbott, Scapolo, & Zappacosta, 2003). Dreyer and Stang (2013) showed that various
foresight methodologies, tools, and techniques—both quantitative and qualitative—have been
used, individually or in combination, to enhance the capacity of systematic and rigorous
foresight. Foresight commonly uses practices such as horizon scanning and trend analysis.
1.1 Importance of the Study
This study evaluates government foresight practices in the UAE and develops
appropriate frameworks for the Abu Dhabi Police (ADP) to enhance and increase their
foresight maturity and practices. It is one of few studies to evaluate foresight practices and
determinants in the Arab region and the first to evaluate the applicability of this model in a
government entity.
1.2 Background
Current usage of foresight techniques is limited (Jissink, Huizingh, & Rohrbeck,
2014), and existing literature is fragmented and not appropriately integrated (Iden, Methlie, &
Christensen, 2017), with the exception of Grim (2009). The FFM model (questionnaire) was
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designed to evaluate private, not governmental organisations, but it has not been translated
into other languages (except Polish by Kononiuk & Sacio-Szymańska, 2015); thus, it is not
suitable for application in the UAE, where Arabic is the native language, and many
government leaders do not speak English. Grim’s (2009) model does not give participants
additional options in the questionnaire as it identifies specific possible answers from which to
choose. The current FFM questionnaire (Grim, 2009) is limited to only one person familiar
with the organisation’s strategies and projects; it does not include others, regardless of their
jobs at the organisation. The scientific foresight terms used in the FFM questionnaire (e.g.,
weak signals, wild card, horizon scanning) are new in the Arab world and thus
incomprehensible to most employees in the UAE, which will lead to incorrect and inaccurate
answers from participants. The questionnaire is difficult to understand in general and contains
a large number of questions that are general, do not apply to the Arab society environment,
and are not in line with the state’s governmental institutions.
1.3 Aim and Objectives
The main aim of this study is to develop an Arabic version of a foresight maturity
index to evaluate foresight maturity among ADP police, considering the most important
disciplines—namely, leadership, framing, scanning, futuring, visioning, designing, and
adopting (Hines & Bishop, 2006, 2013). The major objectives of this study are to:
evaluate existing literature regarding foresight in the government by conducting a
literature review;
develop a foresight maturity index to measure foresight capabilities and practices in
government organisations;
study the relationship between foresight maturity and familiarity of foresight in
different ADP departments;
evaluate the foresight maturity level and application of foresight in different ADP
departments; and
examine the influence of various factors on foresight maturity among the ADP and
evaluate the strength of association for each independent factor.
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2. Literature Review
The literature frequently depicts anticipation as an analytic and strategic process
(Cunha, Palma, & Costa, 2006), where the spotlight is on techniques, methodologies, or
frameworks created and applied in different settings (sectorial, organisational, national, and
regional), contingent upon the context of a particular anticipation exercise. In this manner,
strategic anticipation/foresight is a field experiencing critical change, as associations centre
around the present by creating flexible and intelligent organisational procedures overseen by
outward-looking supervisors who search for novel arrangements attempting to escape from
the perpetuating acclimated patterns of thinking and acting (Cunha et al., 2006). Major, Asch,
and Cordey-Hayes (2001) stated that foresight has greatly advanced separate from the
literature on business systems. Vecchiato and Roveda (2010) and Major et al. (2001)
emphasised foresight’s relationship to the core competence perspective of procedure.
Prahalad and Hamel (1990) identified how small organisations acquire and learn new
information to evaluate their insights into the national UK foresight programme and to assess
human capability concepts of foresight. They concluded that individual administrators play a
significant role in foresight, claiming that their managerial attitudes towards the future are the
incentive for organisations’ foreknowledge feelings. Bootz (2010) expressly related
organisational learning with organisational foresight. Bootz’s poll highlighted that the effect
of foreknowledge in terms of organisational learning is based on the reasoning qualities of the
foresight attitude, which encourages the questioning of individual demonstrations. Bootz’s
(2010) investigation underscored that lone works concentrating on arranging key situations
(Shell’s approach) manage organisational learning in an unambiguous way.
The aim of the current study is based on Kononiuk’s (2014) research results from a
sample of 134 companies from the Podlaskie region in Poland. The research was conducted
to assess the familiarity and application of foresight research as well as foresight maturity
with reference to the components Grim (2009) identified. Kononiuk and Sacio-Szymańska
(2015) assessed the foresight maturity of companies based in the Podlaskie province, one of
the least developed regions in Europe. Their survey research was preceded by a bibliometric
analysis and a literature review to examine current tendencies in foresight research in
organisations. Their model, in addition to traditionally associated foresight components such
as environmental scanning, considered such aspects as leadership, collective vision building,
and planning. The pilot survey found that the companies had low foresight maturity levels;
hence, based on their literature review, the researchers suggested two management concepts
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to increase companies’ foresight maturity levels. Kononiuk and Sacio-Szymańska (2015)
confirmed that individuals’ roles are pivotal to building a company’s competitive advantage
based on foresight as one of its core competences. Obviously, this does not mean that
company managers’ or staff’s intrinsic motivation will suffice to implement a successful
foresight orientation paradigm in an organisation.
2.1 Strategic Foresight Concept
Strategic foresight is characterised by a long-term, interdisciplinary, participative, and
communicative perspective that attempts to enable the organisation to detect possible changes
early, predict and interpret consequences, and respond quickly and effectively to emerging
threats and opportunities (Habegger, 2010; Rohrbeck, 2010). The concept of strategic
foresight applies to policing because it could be used to determine the strategies that could be
implemented in practice to promote efficacy and safety before an event occurs.
2.2 Strategic Foresight in the Government
Several drivers encourage policymakers’ application of strategic foresight as part of
regular governmental operations. First, almost all organisations, including government
agencies, continue to face unprecedented interdependencies among the social, technological,
environmental, economic, and political (STEEP) changes that influence the organisational
environment (Constanzo, 2004). This helps policymakers acquire an enhanced capacity to
perceive, change, interpret, and respond to change and propose interventions to accomplish
the change and influence other actors (Rohrbeck & Schwarz, 2013).
Second, the use of strategic foresight allows for the greater use and expansion of
sophisticated technology on a global scale (Rogers, 2015). Strategic foresight programmes’
implementation is often motivated by the need to understand the potential implications of
emerging technological trajectories, which can enable organisations to surpass barriers
(Tsoukas & Shepherd, 2004).
A third factor motivating the enactment of strategic foresight is that these plans
account for uncertainty and its related risk (Vecchiato & Roveda, 2010). Events such as the
Al-Qaeda-led terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 represent a failure to monitor critical
signs of danger that, if detected, could reduce harm and increase safety. Organisations aim to
mitigate the effects of these surprise events or avoid these events altogether (Kuosa, 2011).
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2.3 Practicing Strategic Foresight in the Government
Initially, most strategic foresight work focused on issues of national defence, security,
and intelligence, thereby incorporating a strong military and foreign policy orientation. Many
governments subsequently realised that a single-issue focus is not sufficient for dealing with
emerging threats and opportunities (Habegger, 2010). Hence, the scope of strategic foresight
activity expanded to include most domestic as well as security issues. Gradually, the study
and practice of future studies—investigations to predict and prepare for future outcomes—
spread across the globe. Academics use the term “future studies” to describe this process
whereas the practitioner community uses “foresight” to refer to the same subject.
3. Research Questions and Hypotheses
This study aims to answer the following research question: To what extent can a
foresight maturity index assess maturity among the employees in Abu Dhabi Police, UAE?
The research question will be addressed by testing the following hypotheses:
Hypothesis 1: The ADP’s foresight maturity level is limited.
Hypothesis 2: Knowledge of foresight is limited in ADP departments.
Hypothesis 3: Participants’ personal characteristics affect their responses on the
development of foresight maturity in the ADP.
Hypothesis 4: The ADP’s current status of strategic foresight does not have a positive
impact on the development of its foresight maturity.
Hypothesis 5: A positive relationship exists between foresight maturity and the
familiarity of foresight in the organisation.
Hypothesis 6: A positive relationship exists between the current training programmes
delivered in the ADP and the performance development and familiarity of foresight.
Hypothesis 7: A positive relationship exists between the leadership’s support of
foresight and the development of foresight maturity in the ADP.
Hypothesis 8: A positive relationship exists between the leadership’s awareness of
foresight and the foresight maturity in the ADP.
Hypothesis 9: A positive relationship exists between the understanding of the
foresight framework and the foresight maturity in the ADP.
4. Conceptual Model
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This research will examine both independent and dependent variables, with the major
concern being the dependent variable of “foresight maturity”.
4.1 Independent Variables
4.1.1 Demographic
The demographic independent variables include age, work experience, academic
qualification, and the administrative level. To date, several studies have addressed the
relationship between demographic characteristics and leadership behaviour, highlighting the
importance of demographic characteristics (Ibrahim et al., 2011; McMurray et al., 2013).
Education level is positively associated with receptivity to innovation (Bantel & Jackson,
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Figure 1: Conceptual model
Foresight Maturity
Foresight framework understanding
Framing, scanning, futuring, visioning, designing, adopting
AwarenessEmployees' familiarity with foresight, leadership's familiarity and support
AdministrativeToolkit, training programmes, future function or teamwork, financial support
DemographicAge, education level, work experience, administrative level
1989; Finkelstein & Hambrick, 1996; Hambrick & Mason, 1984; Wiersema & Bantel, 1992)
and has the greatest influence on leadership behaviour (Alenazi, Muenjohn, & McMurray,
2017). Sebaa, Wallace, and Cornelius (2009) found that prospector managers have, on
average, higher educational status than defender managers, with alignment of several
demographic characteristics with strategic orientation leading to enhanced performance.
Age negatively correlates to receptivity to change (Wiersema & Bantel, 1992),
innovativeness and innovation (Bantel & Jackson, 1989), willingness to take risk (Hambrick
& Mason, 1984), and organisational growth (Ellis & Child, 1973). These advantages are
naturally inherent in corporate foresight.
Managerial characteristics and behaviour are also related to managerial behaviour and
tenure (Bantel & Jackson, 1989; Ellis & Child, 1973; Hambrick & Mason, 1984; Thomas et
al., 1991; Wiersema & Bantel, 1992). Hambrick and Mason (1984) argued that managers
who have long worked for one organisation tend to have limited perspectives and avoid
radical changes. Longer tenure is also associated with a conservative, more risk-averse
outlook (Ellis & Child, 1973). Meanwhile, short-tenured executives are more likely to pursue
prospector strategies (Thomas et al., 1991). Figure 2 shows the relationship between
demographic independent variables and the dependent variable.
Figure 2. Relationship between demographic independent variables and dependent variable
4.1.2 Administrative
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Foresight Maturity
Age
work experience
education
Administrative level
The administrative independent variables comprise the approved foresight toolkit,
training programmes, future function or foresight team, and financial support for the future
foresight projects and programmes. Training has a positive and significant impact on
productivity (Colombo & Stanca, 2014). Within the police context, Garner (2005) found that
police training—involving unique experiences, new skills, and potentially important new
group influences—can have a powerful impact on attitudes. Direct experience, such as
intensive police training, can play a significant role in effecting attitude change. Attitudes are
reliable predictors of future behaviour (Azjen, 2005).
As effective training can help change people’s hearts and minds, it could be used to
address potential challenges deeply affecting foresight activities and diminishing its
applicable usage, such as cultural assumptions regarding foresight, the client’s state of mind,
and fear of engaging with the outside world and the future (Burt & van der Heijden, 2004).
Vecchiato and Roveda (2010) found that graduate training and certified practice are lacking
in the field of foresight; therefore, additional training opportunities in foresight methods and
approaches are necessary (Fuerth & Faber, 2012). According to Kononiuk and Sacio-
Szymańska (2015), business coaching would be instrumental in introducing a high-impact
learning culture model and attaining the desired level of foresight maturity. The coaching
method can increase effectiveness of entire companies, optimize decision-making processes,
and generate more effective change management (Besser & Wilson, 2012). Such advantages
interrelate with the concept of corporate foresight.
The availability of resources is a key variable to succeed with strategic foresight. In
their analysis of foresight activities in 23 developed and developing countries, Dreyer and
Stang (2013) showed that mostly developed countries engage in foresight. Countries with
large and well-resourced governments can pursue foresight activities (Havas et al., 2010),
which constitute only a small portion of total spending. Mietzner and Reger’s (2009) multiple
case study identified a lack of resources as a reason for not applying strategic foresight in
firms. Dreyer and Stang (2013) recommended developing consistent, long-term sources of
funding and cooperation with other agencies, both domestically and internationally. The size
of the government organisation also matters. Militaries, which often make up a large portion
of government budgets, are more likely to have established and well-resourced foresight
programmes (Dreyer & Stang, 2013).
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In addition, lacking a coherent code for the established and certified practice is one of
the reasons for not applying strategic foresight (Vecchiato & Roveda, 2010). Daheim and
Uerz (2008) and De Smedt, Borch, and Fuller (2013) argued that tailoring the method and
process to companies’ needs is one success factor for foresight. Therefore, the foresight
toolkit might be essential for achieving foresight maturity. Kononiuk and Sacio-Szymańska
(2015) called for more research to develop the foresight maturity model, which could involve
the means of equipping company employees with skills to search for, interpret, and use the
acquired futures knowledge through, for example, coaching methods and the use of already
available training foresight toolkits adapted to specific national or regional requirements.
Figure 3 shows the relationship between administrative independent variables and the
dependent variable.
Figure 3. Relationship between administrative independent variables and dependent variable
4.1.3 Awareness
The independent variables related to foresight awareness comprise staff familiarity
with future foresight and its programmes in the organisation and leadership familiarity with
foresight and the extent to which leaders support it. Kononiuk and Sacio-Szymańska (2015)
argued that individuals’ role is pivotal in building a company’s competitive advantage based
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Foresight Maturity
Foresight toolkit
Training programmes
Future function OR Team work
Financial support
on foresight as one of its core competences. Therefore, senior management involvement and
support are crucial success factors in strategic foresight (e.g., Daheim & Uerz, 2006; Iden et
al., 2017; Nick, 2008). Without such support, as Fuerth and Faber (2012, p. 25)
acknowledged, there would be ‘little incentive within the bureaucracy to produce foresight
and integrate it with current analysis, and staff will revert to the routine of crisis
management’. In Singapore the policy elites appear to have created a political culture that
values and respects long-term, future-oriented thinking.
Müller (2006, cited by Daheim & Uerz, 2006) suggested that organisational and
political barriers are the biggest challenges to strategic foresight in corporations; however,
organisational and political barriers could be resolved by senior management support
(Wippel, 2014). Furthermore, senior management commitment also helps authorize and
legitimize strategic foresight results (Nick, 2008). As such, strategic foresight is often
considered an executive responsibility (Daheim & Uerz, 2006).
Figure 4. Relationship between awareness independent variables and dependent variable
4.1.4 Foresight Framework Understanding
Hines and Bishop (2006) defined six sequential categories that mirror the phases of
strategic foresight activity: framing, scanning, futuring and future alternatives, visioning,
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Foresight Maturity
Employees' Familiarity of
foresight
Leadership's familiarity
and support
designing, and adopting. This framework focuses on those aspects of strategic foresight that
the Association of Professional Futurists’ (APF) Professional Development team deemed
most critical for success in 2004 and 2005. Based on this framework, Grim (2009) developed
the Foresight Maturity Model (FMM) by relying on six disciplines to define the best practices
for the foresight field: leadership, framing, scanning, forecasting, visioning, and planning.
Framing helps identify and solve the right challenge whereas scanning aims to develop a mix
of fundamental driving forces that suggest the most likely future. Forecasting aims at
generating both the baseline future (present trends continued) and alternative futures.
Visioning helps imagine the preferred future. Planning is bridge between the vision and
action; it contains guidelines that develop the strategy and options for carrying out the vision.
Lastly, acting helps organisations translate what they have learned about the futures into
managerial actions; therefore, acting contains guidelines communicating the results,
developing action agendas, and institutionalizing strategic thinking and intelligence systems
to influence the future.
Figure 5. Relationship between foresight framework understanding independent variables and dependent variable
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Foresight Maturity
Framing
Scanning
Futuring
Visioning
Designing
Adopting
5. Methodology
5.1 Data Collection Instruments
A quantitative approach will be used through self-completed questionnaires. Using
surveys will save the researcher’s and participants’ time and will enable the researcher to
obtain accurate, correct, and adequate answers. In addition, this approach will enable the
researcher to coordinate a larger sample size of study participants while ensuring that the
study remains well-organised (Smith, Thorpe, & Jackson, 2012).
The purpose of the survey is to evaluate the determinants of foresight maturity and
examine the potential relationship between foresight maturity and the ADP’s familiarity with
foresight. The questionnaire will be developed in consideration of the examples from
previous literature (Grim, 2009) and in consultation with a field expert. The electronic
questionnaire will be used as a standout between the most kinds of global research systems.
This method saves time and is one of the more reasonable procedures in terms of cost while
covering a wide geographical region.
The questionnaire will be developed according to the foresight framework in the
Thinking about the Future framework (Hines & Bishop, 2006, 2013) and Grim’s (2009)
FMM. The researcher will consider the Oxford University methodology, the methodology of
the Turku University in Finland, the Singapore methodology, and the Houston methodology
to support thoughts and ideas. The questionnaire will be divided into four main sections (see
Appendix 1):
First section: Collect background demographic data and information on respondents’
status (e.g., age, level of education).
Second section: Examine impact of administrative organisation to improve foresight
maturity in the ADP.
Third section: Measure the extent of ADP employees’ and top management’s
awareness to improve foresight maturity.
Fourth section: Measure the extent of understanding and applying future foresight
framework in ADP and their impact on foresight maturity. This section will be
divided into six axes: framing, scanning, futuring and future alternatives, visioning,
designing, and adopting.
The sections will use a 7-point Likert scale (strongly disagree = 1 to strongly agree =
7) to evaluate the determinants of foresight maturity and examine the potential relationship
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between foresight maturity and familiarity of foresight. Saunders, Lewis, and Thornhil (2009)
indicated that Likert-type questions are very useful for gathering specific data or seeking
facts or opinions; they should be presented in a straight line.
Closed-ended questions will be used to enable the researcher to collect extensive data
from many people in a short period of time (Popper, 2002). People are familiar and
comfortable with this format (Alkaabi, 2013), making it useful for the current study. Bryman
and Bell (2011) noted additional advantages of closed questions: (a) they can be pre-coded,
(b) they facilitate the relationship between the variables and comparisons between
respondents, and (c) they are easy for respondents to complete and for researchers to clarify
the meaning of.
5.2 Population and Sample
The research will distribute surveys to a randomly selected sample from a known list
of ADP employees. Thus, this research will implement probability sampling—namely, a
simple random sampling through a convenience sample (Saunders & Lewis, 2009). The ADP
has approximately 35,000 employees, and the population for the survey will be ADP’s top
organisational leaders, which includes the general director, deputy of general director,
directorate, deputy of directorate, department director, deputy of department director, and
section heads, totalling 272 managers.
5.3 Limits to Generalisation
Because of the study’s sample and intent, the findings will be generalisable only to the
ADP in the UAE because any finding can be generalised only to the population from which that
sample was taken and not beyond when the sample is not sufficient. In addition, the research
design does not treat the ADP as a random variable itself, but rather a fixed choice. One could
potentially generalise findings to other police departments with similar characteristics, but such
generalisations are not necessarily the purpose of this study. On the other hand, the questionnaire
developed by the researcher could be generalised to other organisations, especially in the UAE
government.
5.4 Data Analysis
Analysing data is the most important part of any quantitative study (Muijs, 2011).
Statistical tests will be applied to achieve the study’s aim and objectives. A quantitative
analysis will be applied to questionnaire data using the statistical program SPSS for
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Windows. Descriptive statistics will be conducted on the demographic data, including
frequency and percentages for nominal (age, gender) and ordinal scales (current management
positions, degree, number of training courses) as well as means/standard deviations for
continuous (interval/ratio) data (Donald, 2011).
5.4.1 Statistical Techniques
A 7-point Likert-type scale, ranging from extremely disagree to extremely agree and
extremely dissatisfied to extremely satisfied, will be employed to explore respondents’
opinions and behavioural variables. Moreover, statistical tests will be applied, starting with a
Cronbach’s alpha test for reliability of data and descriptive test (mean, standard deviation)
measures of variation, a correlation analysis (Spearman’s rank calculator), and statistical
hypothesis tests, such as analysis of variance t-test and one-way ANOVA tests, to test the
hypotheses and answer the research question (Alkaabi, 2013).
5.4.2 Validity and Reliability
Reliability and validity are the most important criteria for any business and
management research (Bryman & Bell, 2011). To decrease the possibility of achieving
incorrect results while enhancing the findings’ credibility, it is necessary to ensure the
research instrument’s validity and reliability (Saunders et al., 2009). The Cronbach’s alpha
test coefficient can be used for questionnaires using rating scales; the alpha should fall within
a range of 0.70 to 1.00 (Sun et al., 2007). Black (1999) defined the most convenient and
reasonable index for questionnaires is through the application of scales such as rating. If the
Cronbach’s alpha values exceed the accepted lower limit of 0.7, the scales used in the
instrument are reliable.
Whereas “reliability is concerned with the question of whether the results of the study
are repeatable”, “validity is concerned with the integrity of the conclusions that are generated
from a piece of research” (Bryman & Bell, 2011, p. 67). The literature discusses several types
of validity testing, including criterion validity, to ensure measurement validity (Hair et al.,
2006; Sekaran, 2003). Content validity, the most important type of validity, is concerned with
the extent to which a measurement scale reflects what is supposed to be measured (Sekaran,
2003). Construct validity shows how well the findings derive from employing the measure
that fits the theories and theoretical assumptions around which the test is designed (Sekaran,
2003). The current study follows many procedures to achieve questionnaire validity—
namely, an extensive literature review is linked to the topic of study and the study
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questionnaire will be assessed and refereed by many people with sufficient, knowledgeable
experience in the study area.
6. Pilot Testing and Measuring Validity
To create the survey, the researcher will use the information collected from the
literature review to prepare an initial draft of the questionnaire (see Appendix 1). He will then
pre-test the survey instrument informally by checking its face validity with a small group of
the researcher’s colleagues in the foresight field. These colleagues will review the questions
for clarity, simplicity, and ambiguity (Robson, 2002). This will lead to the development of a
modified version of the questionnaire. The researcher will then conduct a pilot study by
sending copies of the modified first draft to 10 individuals from the population sample to
validate the questionnaire. Larossi (2006) noted that pilot tests aim to (1) evaluate the
competency of the questionnaire, (2) estimate the length of the survey or time needed to take
the survey, and (3) collect comments or recommendations for making the questionnaire better
(Lease, 2005). The researcher will continue to repeat this iterative process until the survey
demonstrates usability and validity.
7. Ethical Issues
All research will be conducted by following Bradford University’s ethical guidelines.
No substantive additional ethical issues surround this research. The researcher will:
Provide a relevant information letter to participants, which will include information
about the study and its objectives;
Secure the full and informed consent of all participants by having them complete the
consent form;
Ensure the anonymity of all participants and case study organisations, if
required/requested; and
Respect the confidentiality of all participants and privileged data documents of
participants.
To maintain confidentiality and information security, participants will not be required to
submit any personally identifying information.
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8. Contributions
The questionnaire will collect data according to the foresight framework in the
Thinking about the Future framework (Hines & Bishop, 2006, 2013) and FMM
(Grim, 2009).
Once completed, this will be the first foresight study applied to a governmental
organisation in the UAE (i.e., ADP).
The study will help with the possibility of using the questionnaire to measure the
ADP’s capabilities and foresight practices as well as proposing ideas to raise the
ADP’s maturity in the future.
The foresight maturity index developed will be used to measure the future of
government institutions in the Arab world.
9. Summary
Strategic foresight is important to the organisation as it attempts to enable the
organisation to detect change early, interpret the consequences, and respond quickly and
effectively to emerging threats and opportunities (Rohrbeck, 2010). This study aims to
prepare a sophisticated Arabic version of the FMM to evaluate foresight maturity among
ADP officers and study the relationship between foresight maturity and familiarity of
foresight in different ADP departments. The study will employ a non-experimental
quantitative approach using self-completed questionnaires distributed to a randomly selected
sample from a list of known ADP employees. The population for the survey will be top
organisational leaders, totalling 272 individuals. This study will follow a deductive approach
to evaluate the impact of various determinants on foresight maturity for police employees.
The questionnaire data gathered will be analysed using descriptive statistics in order to test
hypotheses and answer the research question.
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10. Research Time Plan
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