Wander Jager

Wander Jager

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An updated conceptual framework for integrated modelling of human decision

making: The Consumat II

2Jacob van Ruisdael (1628/29–1682), Sailing Vessels in a Thunderstorm

Social Complex Systems• Ability to learn and adapt• Communication is essential• Forecast affects outcome

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Sometimes turbulent periods, where prediction is difficult, but management critical

Social environmental problems

• Farming• Fisheries• Transportation• Waste• Energy use• Air quality

Simulation Models

• Can help in understanding the dynamics of social environmental systems

• May serve as a testbed for developing policy

• Behaviour often is the cause but also the solution of problems

• There is a need to include behaviour in environmental models that

- captures some essential behavioural processes - connects behaviour with policy tools

Social simulation

• The key challenges are

- Developing valid rules for agent behaviour based on sound theory

- Parameterise models on the basis of empirical data

- Validation using e.g. micro-level process data (life histories)

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Consumat model

Human Needs• Subsistence

• Social

• Personality8

Satisfaction of needsDiscount function:

  NyOxt = Σ t..t=n f(t) * (UyOxt) In which: - NyOxt = Need satisfaction of need y (one of the three) for using opportunity Ox at the current time step t- t..t=n is the time frame considered- f(t) describes the decay function if decreased weighting of utility over time-UyOxt = Utility for need y of opportunity x at time t-Uncertainty about future outcomes

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Decision Making

• Repetition: consider only the behaviour that one is performing now.  

• Imitation: consider all behavioral options performed by peers (strong links).  

• Inquiring: consider all behaviour performed by all other agents (weak links).

• Optimising: consider all possible behavioural options available. Here also opportunities are considered that are not yet used by other agents.

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repetition optimising

imitation inquiring

Satisfaction (involvement)

Uncertainty

(much information)

high

high

low

lowIndividual strategies

Social strategies

Low cognitive Effort

High cognitive Effort

Decision Making

Communication in simulation models

• Communication is critical - With whom: social networks, in- and outgoing

influence similarity, expertise - How: observation, norms, information, various

channels - When: involvement, uncertainty, social relevant outcomes

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Networks are critical, and can be seen as emerging from interactions.

Influencing processes in networks (management) requires an understanding of these interactions, and hence the communication between people

Model implications

• Emergent and dynamic networks based on similarity

• Innovation theory is implicit: low importance social needs results in stronger tendency to try new behavioural options.

• Heterogeneity in needs importance is relevant in describing different types of personalities and/or cultures

• Simple set of rules that can be applied to many situations

Management

• In turbulent times classical prediction becomes risky, yet management is essential.

• Serious gaming: exploring managerial strategies.

• Flightsimulator: not predicting where you land (or crash) but learning how to navigate to a goal and foresee (early warning) and adapt to threats and chances

• Changing the attributes of behavioural options and communication strategies

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A future for policy gaming?A simulation model parametrisized on the basis of empiricaldata to represent a particular system, e.gSocial-ecological

Each player is assigned a role (stakeholder), and faces the challenge to reach his/her goal using available strategies

http://www.rug.nl/gcscs

Management of social complex systems

Adaptive policy may help in preventing problems!

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