VALE - Not a 'Buy' in the Short Term

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  • 7/30/2019 VALE - Not a 'Buy' in the Short Term

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    October 18, 2012 | Flash News

    Please refer to page 4 of this report for important disclosures, analyst certifications and additional information. Ita BBA does and seeks to dobusiness with Companies covered in this research report. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest thatcould affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the sole factor in making their inv estment decision.

    Read this report in:

    4 min: Full

    Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. is the securities arm of Ita Unibanco Group. Ita BBA is aregistered mark used by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A.

    Marcos Assumpo, CFA+55-11-3073-3021marcos.assumpcao@itaubba.com

    Andr Pinheiro, CNPI+55-11-3073-3028andre.pinheiro@itaubba.com

    STEEL & MINING TEAM

    ValeBrazil | Market Perform

    Not a Buy in the Short Term

    More conservative short-term view on Vale = weak results + negative earnings revision + fair

    valuation. We are downgrading Vale to market perform with a new target price of USD 21/ADR or

    BRL 42/share. Our more conservative view is based on: i) weak short-term results given the recent

    decline in iron ore prices and lower-than-expected volumes we estimate 3Q12 EBITDA to reach

    USD 3.2 billion; ii) trimming our EBITDA estimates for 2012 to USD 17.7 billion (from USD 20 billion) and

    for 2013 to USD 20.2 billion (from USD 23.4 billion) we expect consensus to follow suit; and iii) Vale is

    trading at 6.4x EV/EBITDA 2013E, a fair valuation considering the increased volatility in iron ore prices.

    The main reasons behind our more-negative short-term view on Vales stock price are:

    Weak 3Q12 results: we expect Vales recurring EBITDA to reach USD 3.2 billion (-42% QoQ) on

    lower iron ore prices, soft iron ore volumes and weak base-metals performance (lower sequential

    copper and nickel volumes on seasonally weaker demand);

    Negative earnings revision: We revised our model to a more cautious commodity outlook for 2013:

    i) lower iron ore fines prices (USD 87/ton vs. USD 92/ton previously); ii) lower iron ore volumes (315

    million tons vs. 320 million tons previously) and iii) reduced copper volumes (320k tons vs. 360k tons

    previously). Weak 3Q12 results could trigger investors to revise downwards Vales earnings;

    Limited short-term volume growth: Even though Vales main growth projects (Serra Sul and

    Moatize) will likely add value to the company, they will not affect results materially before 2015;

    Base-metals business continues to pressure short-term results: heavy past investments mainly

    in the nickel business (VNC and Ona Puma) continued to negatively impact results through pre-

    operational expenses and are adding small volumes to the company;

    Dividends will likely decline in tandem with free-cash-flow generation: We estimate 2013

    EBITDA to reach USD 4 billion, below the USD 6 billion distributed in 2012;

    Regulatory environment remains risky: We do not expect Vale to solve its most important past

    tax litigation (income tax on foreign subsidiaries worth USD 15 billion) in the short term;

    Limited positive surprise on capex: We expect capex to total USD 18 billion in 2012 and USD 16

    billion in 2013, as Vale will likely conclude projects under development and invest in priority projects.

    That said, we see limited room for investors to be surprised with lower-than-expected 2013 capex;

    Risks to our conservative view = China + global growth recovery + solution of tax issue . Our

    cautious view on Vale could be wrong if: i) stronger-than-expected stimulus is thrown into the Chinese

    economy, boosting steel and iron ore demand and prices; ii) a faster-than-expected recovery in the

    global economy should occur, leading to stronger global steel consumption and iii) Vale is able to solve

    its past tax litigations under favorable conditions, thus reducing regulatory risk.

    Continue to prefer Vale over steels. Despite our more conservative near-term view on the stock, we

    continue to prefer Vale over steels on: i) relatively attractive valuation and ii) lower leverage risk.

    Estimates and Valuation

    Years 2010a 2011a 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e

    Net revenues (USD m) 45,293 58,990 44,274 48,506 50,496 52,040EBITDA (USD m) 26,116 35,272 17,661 20,185 21,997 23,332Net income (USD m) 17,264 22,885 8,861 9,981 10,730 11,424Net debt (USD m) 15,966 19,612 28,349 33,187 35,616 36,509EPS 3.4 4.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2EV/EBITDA 4.3 3.2 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.7

    P/E 5.3 4.0 10.4 9.2 8.6 8.1FCF yield (%) -1.3 8.6 -3.7 -0.8 1.7 3.7DPS (USD) 0.6 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8Dividend yield (%) 3.3 13.0 6.5 4.3 4.1 4.3P/BV 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9

    Source: Ita BBA

    Ticker (ADR) VALE.P

    Target Price (YE13) USD 21.0

    Ticker (Local) VALE5

    Target Price (YE13) BRL 42.0

    Stock Data

    Current price USD 17.9

    Upside (YE13) % 17.3

    52 Week high/low USD 25.73/15.53

    Shares outstanding th 5,153,375

    Market capitalization USD m 92,297

    3-mth avg daily vol. USD m 144.6Performance (%) 1m 12m

    Absolute -3.3 -20.9

    Vs. SPX -2.5 -33.4

    Company Performance

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    Oct-11

    Nov-11

    Dec-11

    Jan-12

    Feb-12

    Mar-12

    Apr-12

    May-12

    Jun-12

    Jul-12

    Aug-12

    Sep-12

    VALE.P Source: Ita BBA

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    Vale October 18, 2012

    Ita BBA

    2

    Challenging ST Scenario, But We Like The Companys LT Strategy

    We continue to like Vales asset base and long-term strategy. We acknowledge that Vale will face a

    challenging scenario in the short-term given an expected deceleration in Chinese GDP and steel

    demand growth coupled with a fragile global steel demand outlook. However, we continue to like Vales

    high quality, long life and low cost reserve base (mainly in the iron ore business). We believe the

    companys management is paving the way for the companys future growth, is prioritizing best returnprojects and is focused on returning value to shareholders. These expansion projects will likely yield

    positive returns in the medium-term, but investors are unwilling to pay for those benefits in the short-term

    given the present scenario of limited visibility and higher uncertainties. We also praise management

    initiatives of streamlining capex, divesting from non-core activities and engaging in specific joint ventures

    projects to reduce capex needs and accelerate growth in a challenging environment.

    Model Update

    New target price of USD21/VALE.P (BRL42/VALE5) = more conservative view on volumes and

    realized prices. We fine-tuned our Vale model mainly to embed slightly lower Chinese commodity

    demand growth and lower realized iron ore prices. The main changes to our model were: i) we inputed

    Ita BBAs new macroeconomic assumptions, ii) we lowered Vale average realized iron ore prices (to

    account for lower price premiums), iii) we reduced our 2012-14E iron ore volume growth (+30 milliontons vs. previous +40 million tons) and iv) we delayed nickel and copper project ramp-ups. As a result,

    our 2012E and 2013E EBITDA estimates dropped to USD17.7 billion (-12%) and USD20.2 billion (-

    14%), respectively, and we arrived at a new target price of USD21/VALE.P (BRL 42/VALE5).

    Vale Old vs. New Estimates Vale - Ita BBA vs. Consensus

    New Old % Chg New Old % Chg

    Net Revenues 44,274 47,011 -5.8% 48,506 51,952 -6.6%

    EBITDA 17,661 20,031 -11.8% 20,185 23,432 -13.9%

    EBITDA Mg 39.9% 42.6% -2.7p.p. 41.6% 45.1% -3.5p.p.

    Net Income 8,861 9,385 -5.6% 9,981 1 2,130 -17.7%

    FV (USD/ADR) 21.0 24.0 -12.5%

    (USD Million)2012E 2013E

    Ita Mkt vs.Mkt Ita Mkt vs.Mkt

    Net Revenues 44,274 46,455 -4.7% 48,506 50,711 -4.3%

    EBITDA 17,661 20,516 -13.9% 20,185 23,668 -14.7%

    EBITDA Mg 39.9% 44.2% -4.3p.p. 41.6% 46.7% -5.1p.p.

    Net Income 8,861 12,299 -28.0% 9,981 12,046 -17.1%

    FV (USD/ADR) 21.0 22.0 -4.5%

    2012E 2013E(USD Million)

    Source: Ita BBA Source: Bloomberg and Ita BBA

    Updated on October 17, 2012

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    Vale October 18, 2012

    Ita BBA

    3

    Ita BBA Vale Estimates

    Operating Data 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

    Volumes (ktons)

    Iron Ore 299,148 300,000 315,000 330,000 355,000 367,000 375,000

    Fines 257,287 255,000 270,000 280,000 300,000 312,000 320,000

    Pellets 41,861 45,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 55,000 55,000

    Nickel 252 245 320 340 360 372 381

    Copper 302 260 320 380 460 499 524Realized Prices (USD/ton)

    Iron Ore 144 100 93 86 79 77 79

    Fines 136 93 87 81 74 71 74

    Pellets 194 141 128 117 110 109 112

    Nickel 22,698 17,500 17,700 18,000 18,000 18,308 18,658

    Copper 8,434 7,950 7,800 7,300 6,600 6,713 6,841

    Incom e Statement 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

    FX Rate - (BRL/USD - EOP) 1.84 1.95 1.90 1.84 1.76 1.73 1.77

    FX Rate - (BRL/USD - AVG) 1.68 1.92 1.92 1.87 1.80 1.75 1.75

    Net Revenues (USD mn) 58,990 44,274 48,506 50,496 52,040 54,049 57,161

    EBITDA (Incl. Div ) (USD mn) 35,272 17,661 20,185 21,997 23,332 24,577 25,706

    EBITDA Margin (%) 59.8% 39.9% 41.6% 43.6% 44.8% 45.5% 45.0%

    Net Income (USD mn) 22,885 8,861 9,981 10,730 11,424 11,830 12,328

    Net Margin (%) 38.8% 20.0% 20.6% 21.2% 22.0% 21.9% 21.6%

    Per Share Data 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

    Shares Outstanding (mn) 5,153 5,153 5,153 5,153 5,153 5,153 5,153

    EPS 4.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

    Cash Earnings 27,007 13,363 15,127 16,433 17,566 18,348 19,109

    CEPS 5.2 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7

    DPS 2.3 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

    Dividend Yield (%) 13.0% 6.5% 4.3% 4.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.7%

    FCF Yield (%) 8.6% -3.7% -0.8% 1.7% 3.7% 6.8% 7.6%

    Effective Tax Rate (%) -19.7% -25.0% -25.0% -25.0% -25.0% -25.0% -25.0%

    Balance Sheet 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

    Total A ss ets 128,728 140,195 152,287 164,397 171,638 179,542 188,421

    Total Liabilities 48,614 56,813 63,031 68,414 68,715 68,978 69,271

    Minorities 2,399 2,568 2,759 2,963 3,181 3,406 3,641

    Shareholder's Equity 77,715 80,814 86,497 93,021 99,742 107,158 115,508

    Net PP&E 90,030 102,929 114,068 122,843 130,368 135,612 140,818

    Total Debt 23,143 31,550 36,667 41,865 42,147 42,265 42,140

    Cash 3,531 3,201 3,480 6,249 5,638 7,764 10,440

    Net Debt 19,612 28,349 33,187 35,616 36,509 34,501 31,701

    Cash Flow Statement 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

    EBITDA (Incl. Div) 35,272 17,661 20,185 21,997 23,332 24,577 25,706

    (-) Taxes -5,282 -2,819 -3,174 -3,409 -3,630 -3,755 -3,912

    (-) CAPEX -18,252 -18,000 -16,286 -14,479 -13,667 -11,762 -11,987

    (+/-) Working Capital -2,063 1,066 505 -297 -217 -295 -479(+/-) Others 0 600 0 0 0 0 0

    (=) FCFF 9,675 -1,492 1,231 3,813 5,819 8,765 9,328

    (+/-) Net Financial Results -1,747 -1,338 -1,952 -2,288 -2,431 -2,499 -2,337

    (+/-) Debt Variation 0 8,500 5,000 5,000 0 0 0

    (+/-) Others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

    (=) FCFE 7,928 5,670 4,279 6,524 3,388 6,266 6,991

    Dividends/Int. on Equity Paid 12,000 6,000 4,000 3,755 3,998 4,141 4,315

    Multiples & Yields 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

    Mkt Cap (USD mn) 92,297 92,297 92,297 92,297 92,297 92,297 92,297

    EV (USD mn) 114,308 123,214 128,243 130,876 131,987 130,204 127,638

    EV/EBITDA (x) 3.2 7.0 6.4 5.9 5.7 5.3 5.0

    EV/EBITDA at PO (x) 3.7 7.9 7.1 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.6

    P/E (x) 4.0 10.4 9.2 8.6 8.1 7.8 7.5

    P/B (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8

    P/CE (x) 3.4 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.8

    Net Debt/EBITDA (x) 0.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.2

    Net Debt/Total Capit. (%) 15.2% 20.2% 21.8% 21.7% 21.3% 19.2% 16.8%

    Net Debt/Equity (%) 25.2% 35.1% 38.4% 38.3% 36.6% 32.2% 27.4% Source: Ita BBA

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    Vale October 18, 2012

    Ita BBA

    4

    DISCLAIMER

    Ita BBA is a brand name of Ita Corretora de Valores S.A.

    Ratings: Definitions, Dispersion and Banking Relationships

    Ratings(1)

    Definition(2)

    Coverage(3)

    Banking

    Relationship(4)

    OutperformThe analyst expects the stock to perform better thanmarket average.

    55% 49%

    Market PerformThe analyst expects the stock to perform in line withmarket average.

    36% 31%

    UnderperformThe analyst expects the stock to perform belowmarket average.

    9% 8%

    1. The ratings used herein (Outperform, Market Perform and Underperform) correspond approximately to Buy, Hold and Sell,respectively.

    2. Ratings reflect the analysts assessment of the stock price perfo rmance in the medium term compared with marketaverage. Recommendations will remain valid until the analyst changes the rating, which may happen as a result of news orsimply due to a change in the stock price (there is no defined time horizon). Companies are grouped into industries,according to their similarities. The industries are: (i) Banking & Financial Services, (ii) Consumer Goods & Retail + Food &Beverage, (iii) Healthcare + Education, (iv) Steel & Mining + Pulp & Paper, (v) Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals + Agribusiness,(vi) Real Estate, (vii) Telecommunications, Media and Technology, (viii) Transportation, Manufacturing and Logistics, (ix)Utilities, and (x) Equity Strategy.

    3. Percentage of companies covered by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. within this rating category.

    4. Percentage of companies within this rating category, for which Ita Unibanco S.A. or any of its affiliated companiesprovided investment banking services over the last 12 (twelve) months, or which may be provided during the next 3 (three)months.

    Third Party Disclosures

    Companies Mentioned Ticker Recent PriceDisclosure Items

    1 2 3 4 5 6

    VALE VALE.P 17.9 X X X -

    1Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliated companies have managed or co-managed a public offer for the companiesanalyzed in this report in the last 12 (twelve) months, for which they received compensation.

    2. Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliated companies received compensation for the investment banking servicesprovided to the companies analyzed in this report in the last 12 (twelve) months, and expect to receive or intend to seek

    compensation for such services to be provided to companies analyzed in this report in the next 3 (three) months.

    3. Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliated companies were acting as market makers for the companies analyzed inthis report at the time this report was issued.

    4. Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. and/or its affiliated companies have acted as an underwriter of securities issued by thecompanies analyzed in this report within the last 5 (five) years.

    5. Ita Corretora S.A. and/or its affiliated companies, and funds, portfolios and investment clubs managed by Ita Corretorade Valores S.A. beneficially own, directly or indirectly, 1% (one percent) or more of any class of common shares issued bythe companies analyzed in this report as of the end of last month.

    6. The analyzed issuer(s) have a relevant interest in companies of the Ita Unibanco Group.

    VALE

    02-jun

    24-jan

    01-abr

    12-set

    12-set

    28-nov

    27-jul

    30-ago

    24242424242424242424242424242424242424242424242424242424

    000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

    .00

    5.00

    10.00

    15.00

    20.00

    25.00

    30.00

    35.00

    40.00

    45.00

    mai/10 ago/10 nov/10 fev/11 mai/11 ago/11 nov/11 fev/12 mai/12 ago/12

    U nde rpe rf orm Mar ke t Pe rf or m Ou tp erf or m U R S toc k Pr ice Fa ir Va lu e

    Source: Ita BBA

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    Vale October 18, 2012

    Ita BBA

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    Relevant Information1. This report has been produced by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A (Ita BBA), a subsidiary of Ita Unibanco S.A., regulated by the

    Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM), and distributed by Ita BBA or one of its affiliates (altogether, Ita UnibancoGroup). Ita BBA is the brand name used by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A., by its affiliates or by other companies of the I ta UnibancoGroup.

    2. This report aims at providing information only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or asolicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. Theinformation herein is believed to be reliable as of the date on which this report was issued and has been obtained from public sourcesbelieved to be reliable. Ita Unibanco Group does not make any express or implied representation or warranty as to the completeness,

    reliability or accuracy of such information, nor does this report intend to be a complete statement or summary of the investmentstrategies, markets or developments referred to herein. Opinions, estimates, and projections expressed herein constitute the current

    judgment of the analyst responsible for the substance of this report as of the date on which it was issued and are, therefore, subject tochange without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments are indicative only and subject to change without notice. ItaUnibanco Group has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report and inform the reader accordingly, except when terminatingcoverage of the issuer of the securities discussed in this report.

    3. The analyst responsible for the production of this report, whose name is highlighted in bold, hereby certifies that the viewsexpressed herein accurately and exclusively reflect his or her personal views and opinions about any and all of the subjectissuers or securities and were prepared independently and autonomously, including from Ita BBA, Banco Ita BBA S.A andother group companies. Because personal views of analysts may differ from one another, Ita BBA, its subsidiaries andaffiliates may have issued or may issue other reports that are inconsistent with, and/or reach different conclusions from, theinformation presented herein. The analyst responsible for the production of this report is not registered and/or qualified as aresearch analyst with the NYSE or FINRA and is not associated with Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc. and, therefore, may not besubject to Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities heldby a research analyst account.

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    5. The financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. This report does not take into account theinvestment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor. Investors wishing to purchase or o therwise deal inthe securities covered in this report should obtain relevant documents relating to the financial instruments and exchanges and confirmtheir contents. Investors should obtain independent financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making aninvestment decision based on the information herein. Final decision on investments must be made by each investor considering variousrisks, fees and commissions. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than an investors currency, change s inexchange rates may adversely affect the price or value of, or the income derived from the financial instrument, and the reader of thisreport assumes all foreign exchange risks. Income from financial instruments may vary, and therefore their price or value may rise or fall,either directly or indirectly. Past performance does not necessarily indicate future results, and no representation or warranty, express orimplied, is made herein regarding future performance. Ita Unibanco Group does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct orconsequential loss arising from the use of this report or its content, and the investor using this report undertakes to irrevocably exemptthe Ita Unibanco Group from any claims, complaints and/or demands.

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    Additional Note to reports distributed in: (i) U.K. and Europe: Itau BBA UK Securities Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial

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    days from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m., Brasilia time) or write to Caixa Postal 67.600, So Paulo-SP, CEP 03162-971.

    * Cost of a local call.

    Relevant Information Analysts

    AnalystsDisclosure Items

    1 2 3 4 5

    Marcos Assumpo X X X XAndr Pinheiro X X X X

    1. The investment analysts involved in the preparation of this report are related to an individual who works for the issuerobject of this analysis report. The nature of this relationship is ....

    2. The investment analysts, their spouses or companions, have a direct or indirect stake, in their names, in the capital stockand/or other securities issued by the companies object of their analysis.

    3. The Investment analysts, their spouses or companions, are directly or indirectly involved in the purchase, sale, disposal ortrading of securities that are the object of this report.

    4. The investment analysts, their spouses or companions, have a direct or indirect financial interest in the issuing companyof the securities analyzed in this report.

    5. The investment analysts, their spouses or companions, deal with shares of mutual funds which concentrate theirinvestments in the analyzed company or in the companys industry, or in which they can directly or indirectly influ ence

    their management or administration

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    Christian Egan - Global Head of Equities & ETD

    ResearchCarlos Constantini, CNPI - Head +55-11-3073-3001 carlos.constantini@itaubba.com

    Equity Strategy Oil, Gas & PetrochemicalsCarlos Constantini, CNPI - Head +55-11-3073-3001 carl os.constantini@itaubba.com Paula Kov arsky, CNPI +55-11-3073-3027 paula.kov arsky@itaubba.com

    Susana Salaru, CNPI +55-11-3073-3009 susana.salaru@itaubba.com Diego Mendes, CNPI +55-11-3073-3029 diego.mendes@itaubba.com

    Florian Tanzer (LatAm) +55-11-3073-3025 florian.tanzer@itaubba.com

    Pedro Maia, CNPI +55-11-3073-3065 pedro.maia@itaubba.com Real EstateDav id Lawant, CNPI + 55-11-3073-3037 dav id.l awant@i taubba.com

    Argentina Research Vi vi an Salomon, Mexico & Colombia +52-55-5262-0672 v iv ian.salomon@itaubba.comRicardo Cavanagh, CFA +54-11-5273-3593 ricardo.cavanagh@itau.com.ar Enrico Trotta, CNPI +55-11-3073-3064 enrico.trotta@itaubba.com

    Nicols Chialva, CFA +54-11-5273-3503 nicolas.chialva@itau.com.ar

    Steel & Mining + Pulp & PaperChile Research Marcos Assumpo, CFA +55-11-3073-3021 marcos.assumpcao@itaubba.com

    Barbara Angerstein +56-2-834-6297 barbara.angerstein@itau.cl Andr Pinheiro, CNPI +55-11-3073-3028 andre.pinheiro@itaubba.comGustavo Fingeret +56-2-834-6295 gustavo.fingeret@itau.cl

    Telecommunications, Media & TechnologyAgribusiness Gregorio Tomassi, Mexico +52-55-5262-0675 gregorio.tomassi@itaubba.comGi ov ana Araj o, CNPI +55-11-3073-3036 gi ov ana.arauj o@ itaubba.com Susana Sal aru, CNPI + 55-11-3073-3009 susana.sal aru@i taubba.com

    Antonio Barreto, CNPI +55-11-3073-3060 antonio.barreto@itaubba.com Ricardo Cavanagh, CFA, Argentina +54-11-5273-3593 ricardo.cavanagh@itau.com.ar

    Gustavo Fingeret, Chile +56-2-834-6295 gustavo.fingeret@itau.cl

    Banking & Financial Services Regina Longo Sanchez, CNPI +55-11-3073-3042 regina.sanchez@itaubba.com Capital Goods + Transportation & LogisticThiago Bovolenta Batista, CFA +55-11-3073-3043 thiago.batista@itaubba.com Renata Faber, CNPI +55-11-3073-3017 renata.faber@itaubba.com

    Alexandre Spada, CFA +55-11-3073-3004 alexandre.spada@itaubba.com Thais Cascello +55-11-3073-3019 thais.cascello@itaubba.com

    Nicols Chialv a, CFA, Argentina & Chile +54-11-5273-3503 ni colas.chialv a@itau.com.ar

    UtilitiesConsumer Goods & Retail Marcos Severine , C NPI +55-11-3073-3011 marcos. severine@i taubba.comJoaquin Ley, Mexico +52-55-5262-0676 joaquin.ley@itaubba.com Mariana Coelho, CNPI +55-11-3073-3024 mariana.coelho@itaubba.com

    Juliana Rozenbaum, CFA +55-11-3073-3035 jul iana.rozenbaum@itaubba.com

    Barbara Angerstein, Chile +56-2-834-6297 barbara.angerstein@itau.cl EconomicsVitor Paschoal +55-11-3073-3039 vitor.paschoal@itaubba.com Guilherme da Nobrega, CNPI - Head +55-11-3708-2715 gcnobrega@itaubba.com

    Paloma Campos, Mexico +52-55-5262-0677 paloma.campos@itaubba.com Mauricio Oreng +55-11-3708-2807 moreng@itaubba.com

    Luiz Gustavo Cherman +55-11-3708-2713 lgcherman@itaubba.com

    Food & BeverageAlexandre Miguel, CFA +55-11-3073-3020 alexandre.miguel@itaubba.com Retail StrategyRenato Salomone, CNPI , Mexico +52-55-5262-0674 renato.salomone@itaubba.com Lucas Tambellini , CNPI +55 11 3073-3023 lucas.tambellini@itaubba.com

    Felipe Cruz, CNPI +55-11-3073-3007 felipe.cruz@itaubba.com Marcello Rossi, CNPI +55-11-3073-3006 marcello.rossi@itaubba.com

    Fbio Perina, CNPI +55-11-3073-3431 fabio.perina@itaubba.com

    Healthcare + Education Ricardo Guntovitch, CNPI +55-11-3073-3066 ricardo.guntovitch@itaubba.comThiago Macruz, CNPI +55-11-3073-3034 thiago.macruz@itaubba.com

    Equity Sales & Trading

    Latin America North AmericaSales - Latin America Sales - North AmericaCarlos Maggioli - Head +55-11-3073-3300 carlos.maggioli@itaubba.com Adam Cherry - Head +1-212-710-6766 adam.cherry@itaubba.com

    Mrcia Sadzevicius +55-11-3073-3330 marcia.sadzevicius@itaubba.com Kahlil Adam, CFA +1-212-710-6767 kahlil.adam@itaubba.com

    Rodrigo Pace +55-11-3073-3330 rodrigo.pace@itaubba.com Flavia Stingelin, CFA +1-212-710-6768 flavia.stingelin@itaubba.com

    Jos Henrique Sapag Arvelos +55 11 3073-3330 jose.arvelos@itaubba.com Carina Cassab Carreira +1-212-710-6790 carina.carreira@itaubba.com

    Carlos Carvalho Lima (Macro) +55-11-3073-3330 carlos.carvalho-lima@itaubba.com

    Europe, Middle East & AsiaSales Trading - Brazil Sales - EuropeCarlos Maggioli - Head +55-11-3073-3300 carlos.maggioli@itaubba.com Mark Fenton - Head +44-20-7663-7845 mark.fenton@itaubba.com

    Alec Cunningham +55-11-3073-3310 alec.cunningham@itaubba.com Aneli Gonzalez, CFA +44-20-7663-7845 aneli.gonzalez@itaubba.com

    Aureo Bernardo +55-11-3073-3330 aureo.bernardo@itaubba.com Pedro Villa +44-20-7663-7845 pedro.villa@itaubba.com

    Pedro H. Rocha Saum a + 55 11 3073-3330 pedro.saum a@ itaubba.com Sales - JapanCarlos Faria +55-11-3073-3310 carlos.faria@itaubba.com Masafumi Nishimura +813-3539-3856 masafumi.nishimura@itau-unibanco.com

    Sales - Hong KongTrading - Brazil Caio Galvo +852-3657-2398 caio.galvao@itausecurities.comCarlos Maggioli - Head +55-11-3073-3300 carlos.maggioli@itaubba.com Sales Trading - North AmericaCristiano Soares +55-11-3073-3330 cristiano.soares@itaubba.com Kev in Hard - Head +1-212-710-6780 kev in.hard@itaubba.com

    Thiem Hauenschild +55-11-3073-3310 thiem.von@itaubba.com Eric Krall +1-212-710-6780 eric.krall@itaubba.com

    Bruno Campos +55-11-3073-3310 bruno.campos@itaubba.com Fernando Lasalvia +1-212-710-6780 fernando.lasalvia@itaubba.com

    Pedro Feres +55-11-3073-3149 pedro.feres@itaubba.com James Tallarico +1-212-710-6780 james.tallarico@itaubba.com

    Brad Marra +1-212-710-6780 brad.marra@itaubba.com

    Futures, Derivatives & Stock Lending

    Carlos Maggioli - Head +55-11-3073-3300 carlos.maggioli@itaubba.com CommoditiesRoberto Simonsen +55-11-3073-3657 roberto.simonsen@itaubba.com

    Futures Desk Igor Petric +55-11-3073-3657 igor.petric@itaubba.comEduardo Barcellos - Head +55-11-3073-3320 eduardo.barcellos@itaubba.com DerivativesFabio Herdeiro +55-11-3073-3320 fabio.herdeiro@itaubba.com Fabiano V. Romano - Head +55-11-3073-3310 fabiano.romano@itaubba.com

    Alan Eira +55-11-3073-3350 alan.eira@itaubba.com Rafael Americo +55-11-3073-3310 rafael.americo@itaubba.com

    Alexandre Rizzo +55-11-3073-3350 alexandre.rizzo@itaubba.com Marcio Caires +55-11-3073-3310 marcio.caires@itaubba.com

    Celso Azem +55-11-3073-3350 celso.azem@itaubba.com Vinicius Alves de Pinho +55-11-3073-3310 vinicius.pinho@itaubba.com

    Jos Dezene +55-11-3073-3350 jose.dezene@itaubba.com FX Spot Thierry Decoene +55-11-3073-3320 thierry.decoene@itaubba.com Manoel Gimenez +55-11-3073-3340 manoel.gimenez-neto@itaubba.com

    Hernan Livore +55-11-3073-3320 hernan.livore@itaubba.com Haroldo Vasconcellos +55-11-3073-3340 haroldo.vasconcellos@itaubba.com

    Bruno Giusti +55-11-3073-3320 bruno.giusti@itaubba.com Stock Lending Guilherme Michetti +55-11-3073-3320 guilherme.michetti@itaubba.com Joo Victor Caccese +55-11-3073-3211 joao.caccese@itaubba.com

    Leandro Muniz +55-11-3073-3211 leandro.muniz@itaubba.com

    Private Banking Desk

    Carlos Maggioli - Head +55-11-3073-3300 carlos.maggioli@itaubba.com

    Private Banking Sales - High Private Banking Sales - SpecialFelipe Beltrami - Head +55 11 3073-3110 felipe.beltrami@itaubba.com Marcelo Ferri - Head +55 11 3073-3110 marcelo.ferri@itaubba.com

    Caio Felipe Zanardo Val +55 11 3073-3292 caio.val@itaubba.com Guilherme Rudge Simes +55-11-3073-3150 guilherme.simoes@itaubba.com

    Marco Antnio Gomes +55 11 3073-3148 marco.gomes@itaubba.com Patrick Kalim +55-11-3073-3145 patrick.kalim@itaubba.com

    Natlia Mnaco +55 11 3073-3297 natalia.monaco@itaubba.com Ricardo Guntovitch +55-11-3073-3149 ricardo.guntovitch@itaubba.com

    Ricardo Julio Costa +55 11 3073-3297 ricardo.costa@itaubba.com

    Private Banking Sales - UltraSergio Fonseca Rosa - Head +55 11 3073-3110 sergio.rosa@itaubba.com

    Edgard Claussen Vilela +55 11 3073-3291 edgard.vilela@itaubba.com

    Robinson Minetto +55 11 3073-3290 robinson.minetto@itaubba.com

    Frederico P. Bernardes +55 11 3073-3290 frederico.bernardes@itaubba.com

    SO PAULO NEW YORK LONDONIta Corretora de Valores S.A Itau BBA USA Securities Inc. Itau BBA UK Securities LimitedAv. Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 3400 - 10 Andar 767 Fifth Avenue, 50th Floor The Broadgate Tower

    So Paulo, SP, Brazil, 04538-132 New York, NY 10153 20th Floor - 20 Primrose StreetLondon EC2A 2EW

    HONG KONG TOKYO DUBAIItau Asia Securities Limited Itau Asia Securities Limited Tokyo Branch Itau Middle East LimitedRegulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong NBF Hibiya Bldg. 12F Al Fattan Currency House, Level 3

    29/F, Two International Finance Centre 1-1-7 Uchisaiwai-cho, Chiyoda-ku Dubai International Financial Centre (or DIFC)

    8 Finance Street - Central, Hong Kong Tokyo, 100-0011, Japan PO Box 482 034

    Itas Complaints Officer (Ouvidoria Corporativa Ita) may be contacted at 0800 570 0011 (calls from Brazil), on business days, from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. (So Paulo, Brazil time) or P.O. BO X 67.600, Zip Code 03162-971.

    The information herein is believed to be reliable but Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Banco Ita S.A. may have a position from time to time. Past performance is not

    indicative of future results.

    This material is not intended as an off er or solicitation for purchase or sale of any financial instrument. This report is prepared by Ita Corretora de Valores S.A. and distributed in the United States by Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc., and Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc. accepts responsibility for its c ontents

    accordingly. Any US persons receiving this research and wishing to effect transact ions in any security disc ussed herein should do so only with Itau BBA USA Securities, Inc. Analysts who are not CNPI only provide the team with technical support, not issuing personal opinions.

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