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Utilization of digital dividenddecisions and experiences
Wladimir BocquetSenior Director
Global Spectrum Policy GSM Association
ITU Regional Initiative for Europe on Digital BroadcastingITU Regional Initiative for Europe on Digital Broadcasting5-7 November 2012, Budapest, Hungary5-7 November 2012, Budapest, Hungary
About GSMA
Representing the interests of the worldwide mobile communications industry. Nearly 800 operator members covering over 200 countries.
More than 200 associate members from the broader mobile ecosystem, including handset makers, software companies, equipment providers, Internet companies, and media and entertainment organization
www.gsma.com
What’s at stake for mobile industry?
Data Explosion: Rapid changes in mobile service provision such as usage trends and number of important social and behavioural changes have led to previously unpredicted patterns of data consumption amongst mobile users. Mobile data traffic is still expected to significantly increase in the coming five years
Spectrum Resource: Spectrum is the lifeblood of the mobile industry. The amount of spectrum made available and the regulatory conditions on which it is made available fundamentally drive the cost, range and availability of mobile services. Spectrum is a scarce resource and public State property
– Vital input to many industries– Radio waves do not stop at national borders– cross border issues have a significant role in spectrum management
Spectrum Policy: Choosing the appropriate spectrum policy licensing framework to facilitate the large investments required in rolling out networks and introducing updated technologies and new services
Agenda
Data Traffic for Mobile Broadband
Importance of the Digital Dividend for Mobile Broadband
Global Benefit of Releasing Harmonised Spectrum for Mobile Broadband
Summary
Agenda
Data Traffic for Mobile Broadband
Importance of the Digital Dividend for Mobile Broadband
Global Benefit of Releasing Harmonised Spectrum for Mobile Broadband
Summary
Mobile global data traffic
The growing adoption of data services has become the major source of traffic since 2010
On the Analysis Masson forecasts , mobile traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR (Compound annual growth rate) of 42% to reach 28 000 PB per year in 2015.
Source: ITU-R M.2243 Report
Estimates data traffic based on multiple sources
Mobile global data traffic
The ITU-R M. 2243 Report concludes
“The current data traffic (in year 2010) is more than 5 times greater than some of the estimates for Report ITU-R M. 2072 (WRC-07). “
“Actual traffic being experienced by some operators today (year 2011) is even greater than some of the 2020 forecasts given in Report ITU-R M.2072.[…].”
Source: ITU-R M. 2243 Report
Comparison of ITU-R M.2072 with Current Data
This Report clearly indicates that the ITU-R should consider this increasing mobile broadband traffic demand.”
Factors impacting traffic forecastDiversity of devices
Tablet generates 500 times as much data traffic as a basic mobile phone
Smartphones generate, on average, around 50 times more data per month than a basic phone
Average modem/dongle use, with laptop users generating as much as 1300 times that of a “standard” 3G phone
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Tr
affic
(Pet
abyt
es p
er y
ear)
Smartphone Voicephone
Tablet, eReader, Gaming console Laptop
M2M ITU-R M.2072 forecast
Mobile traffic (PB per year) by device type
Source: ITU, Analysys Mason
Mobile data usage is heavily device-dependent
Factors impacting traffic forecastNumber of devices
2020
12 Billion Mobile Connected Devices
2011
6 Billion Mobile Connected Devices
Source: Machina
Mobile world has reached another milestone with Internet becoming increasingly mobile. Ericsson, based on industry information, estimates that the number of mobile subscription will reach 9 billion end of 2017
Spectrum is a key resource/element for Mobile Broadband development
Agenda
Data Traffic for Mobile Broadband
Importance of the Digital Dividend for Mobile Broadband
Global Benefit of Releasing Harmonised Spectrum for Mobile Broadband
Summary
Spectral efficiency
Global trend towards IMT systems
IMT / IMT-Advanced family
Provides a global ecosystem with inherent mobility
Dramatically improves speed and latency
Frequency bands available for the development of the Mobile Broadband
Region 1 options
Below 1 GHz
800MHz
900MHz
Above 1GHz
1800MHz
2100 MHz
2600 MHz
Coverage requires low frequency spectrum for rural and in-building
Capacity requires more total spectrum
Acquire Digital Dividend
Extend licences & refarm to UMTS
Country objectives
Extend licences & refarm to UMTS / LTEAcquire new spectrum
Business drivers
Acquire new spectrum
Effect of frequency on range and capex
Coverage of rural areas at about 30% of the of 2100 MHz
Impact of the digital dividend Band
800MHz indoor coverage
800MHz outdoor coverage
2.6GHz indoor coverage2.6GHz outdoor coverage
Map legend
Base station
Maximise the harmonisation in ITU-R Region 1Digital Dividend: 790 – 862 MHz
Harmonised technical conditions of use in the 790-862 MHz frequency band for mobile broadband
– ITU-R Recommendation M.1036
Maximise the harmonisation in ITU-R Region 1– Facilitate innovation and roaming– Enable economy of scale– Help managing cross-border interference
791 832 862
FDD downlink FDD uplinkGuard
band
790
Duplex
gap
821
30 MHz (6 blocks of 5 MHz) 30 MHz (6 blocks of 5 MHz)
Agenda
Data Traffic for Mobile Broadband
Importance of the Digital Dividend for Mobile Broadband
Global Benefit of Releasing Harmonised Spectrum for Mobile Broadband
Summary
The greater efficiency of digital broadcast networks means that it is possible to release some spectrum for other uses, notably mobile broadband
Across the world, two harmonised UHF bands have been identified for mobile broadband:
– 800MHz band (790–862MHz) in ITU region 1
The economic and social benefits of clearing this digital dividend spectrum for mobile use have clearly been demonstrated in numerous studies
The benefits of using the Digital Dividend for mobile broadband
An increasing number of countries are looking to transition from analogue TV to digital in order to reap the benefits of the digital dividend
European Commission study
Analysys Mason concluded that using the 800MHz band for wireless broadband could generate between EUR50 billion and
EUR190 billion of private value in addition to social value, across the EU
Policy impact of usage of the Digital Dividend
Scenario definition(spectrum allocated to broadcasting or mobile broadband?)
Contribution to ICT ecosystem (economic contribution)
Direct economic contribution
Indirect economic contribution
Social impact
Which option contributes more to ICT suppliers
Which option contributes more to GDP and creation of industry jobs?
Which option contributes more to other sector of the economy in term of GDP growth and jobs?
Which option provides more benefits (“welfare”) to society?
Value creation can be estimated in terms of its economic and social impacts and benefits
Direct contribution to the economy
Indirect contribution to the economy
Contribution to the GDP growth
Direct job creation
Contribution to the GDP growth
Indirect job creation
Additional taxes
Consumer surplus
Supply Side
effects
Demand Side
effects
Socio-economic benefitAllocating harmonised mobile broadband
BCG:$1trillion GDP impact from DD in Asia Pacific
Plum:GDP increase by 5.2% - directly lifting 40M people out of poverty in sub-Saharan Africa
AHCIET:DD will contribute US$15billion to Latin America
Deloitte:US$15billion MNO Investment in mobile broadband in next 2 years in Brazil
Analysys Mason:Saudi could attain over 400k jobs by 2020 with the availability of DD and 2.6GHz
Significant socio-economic benefits from the release of harmonised spectrum to deliver mobile broadband (GDP and job growth..)
Spectrum Award Design
Auctions can provide an economically efficient means to allocate spectrum
– When there is competition for scarce spectrum resources – When demand is expected to exceed supply– But not the only option available to government to manage spectrum
allocation and should only be used in appropriate circumstances Consultation with the operators, and others stakeholders is essential There is no ‘one fits all’ design for spectrum auctions. Each auction needs
to be designed to meet the market circumstances and to achieve the specific objectives of the auction
Auctions should be designed – To realise the long term economic value of the spectrum to the economy as a
whole– Not to maximise short-term revenue for governments. – to be fair, transparent and appropriately designed for the specific market
circumstances
Recent results of Digital Dividend auctions in Europe
Situation in Germany The 800MHz band was awarded through auction in March 2010. The
licences included coverage obligations requiring licensees to roll-out services to the most rural communities first, which previously had inadequate broadband services, before moving to more populated areas.
The spectrum was awarded to T-Mobile (Deutsche Telekom), Vodafone, and Telefónica (which uses the O2 brand)
The first operator to use this band was Vodafone when it commenced its LTE roll out in September 2010 . T-Mobile subsequently launched LTE using the 800MHz band in April 2011, with Telefónica launching the LTE using this band in July of the same year.
Within 12/18 months, the LTE800 coverage obligations have been fulfilled in 12 Federal states.
Source: BNetzA
Situation in Sweden In March 2011 the Swedish Post and Telecom Authority (PTS) auctioned the
800MHz band. The spectrum was awarded in 2×5MHz blocks, with the block at the top of the band (FDD6) having a coverage obligation attached to the licence. This coverage obligation required the operators to cover specific rural geographies with mobile broadband. These geographies previously had inadequate broadband coverage.
The spectrum was awarded to TeliaSonera, Net4Mobility (a joint venture between Telenor and Tele2), and Hutchison 3G. Net4Mobility acquired the spectrum licence with the coverage obligation.
TeliaSonera began the deployment of LTE using 800MHz spectrum days after the auction process ended, with Hutchison 3G launching in the spring of 2011 .
Source: PTS
Agenda
Data Traffic for Mobile Broadband
Importance of the Digital Dividend for Mobile Broadband
Global Benefit of Releasing Harmonised Spectrum for Mobile Broadband
Summary
Summary Meeting the growth in demand for mobile services
Data demand continues to grow1. Additional spectrum being made available and ensuring that the
spectrum goes to the use and users which will maximise its benefits to society
2. Facilitating international harmonisation to support roaming and enable scale economies to lower the cost of equipment
Evaluate the global benefit of the Mobile Broadband in the Digital Dividend1. Significant socio-economic benefits from the release of harmonised
spectrum to deliver mobile broadband (GDP and job growth..)
THANK YOU
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