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Impact of the spectrum management on regional mobile broadband development: challenge and opportunities
Wladimir BocquetSenior Director
Global Spectrum Policy GSM Association
ITU Arab Regional Development, 17ITU Arab Regional Development, 17thth September 2012 September 2012
What’s at stake for mobile industry?
Data Explosion: Rapid changes in mobile service provision such as usage trends and number of important social and behavioural changes have led to previously unpredicted patterns of data consumption amongst mobile users. Mobile data traffic is still expected to significantly increase in the coming five years
Spectrum Resource: Spectrum is the lifeblood of the mobile industry. The amount of spectrum made available and the regulatory conditions on which it is made available fundamentally drive the cost, range and availability of mobile services. Spectrum is a scarce resource and public State property
– Vital input to many industries– Radio waves do not stop at national borders– cross border issues have a significant role in spectrum management
Spectrum Policy: Choosing the appropriate spectrum policy licensing framework to facilitate the large investments required in rolling out networks and introducing updated technologies and new services
Agenda
Data Traffic for Mobile Broadband
Spectrum Management for Mobile Broadband
Global Benefit of Releasing Harmonised Spectrum for Mobile Broadband
Mobile global data traffic
The growing adoption of data services has become the major source of traffic since 2010
On the Analysis Masson forecasts , mobile traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR (Compound annual growth rate) of 42% to reach 28 000 PB per year in 2015.
Source: ITU-R M.2243 Report
Estimates data traffic based on multiple sources
Mobile global data traffic
The ITU-R M. 2243 Report concludes
“The current data traffic (in year 2010) is more than 5 times greater than some of the estimates for Report ITU-R M. 2072 (WRC-07). “
“Actual traffic being experienced by some operators today (year 2011) is even greater than some of the 2020 forecasts given in Report ITU-R M.2072.[…].”
Source: ITU-R M. 2243 Report
Comparison of ITU-R M.2072 with Current Data
This Report clearly indicates that the ITU-R should consider this increasing mobile broadband traffic demand.”
Factors impacting traffic forecastDiversity of devices
Tablet generates 500 times as much data traffic as a basic mobile phone
Smartphones generate, on average, around 50 times more data per month than a basic phone
Average modem/dongle use, with laptop users generating as much as 1300 times that of a “standard” 3G phone
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Smartphone Voicephone
Tablet, eReader, Gaming console Laptop
M2M ITU-R M.2072 forecast
Mobile traffic (PB per year) by device type
Source: ITU, Analysys Mason
Mobile data usage is heavily device-dependent
Factors impacting traffic forecastNumber of devices
2020
12 Billion Mobile Connected Devices2011
6 Billion Mobile Connected Devices
2020
24 Billion Total Connected Devices2011
9 Billion Total Connected Devices
Source: Machina
Mobile world has reached another milestone with Internet becoming increasingly mobile. Ericsson, based on industry information, estimates that the number of mobile subscription will reach 9 billion end of 2017
Spectrum is a key resource/element for Mobile Broadband development
Licensing to support Mobile Broadband
GSMA has commissioned a report that takes an in-depth look at spectrum licensing best practices and real-world case studies
Licensing to support the mobile broadband revolution http://www.gsma.com/spectrum/licensing-to-support-the-mobile-broadband-revolution-report/
Meeting the growing demand Freeing up spectrum resources
Identifying spectrum rights allowing provision of additional spectrum capacity
Enabling flexible/technology neutral use of spectrum (e.g UMTS/LTE at 900/1800 MHz)
Publishing a road map of the planned release of additional spectrum bands – to maximise overall benefits from the use of spectrum taking into
account the benefits of international harmonisation – aligning spectrum rights with the internationally harmonised mobile
spectrum bands Removing service and technology restrictions in existing mobile spectrum
usage rights – to enable operators to choose when to deploy mobile technologies that
can technically co-exist. – However, Operators themselves are likely to be best placed to
determine the speed of migration particularly recognising that 2G services are likely to remain important for the next 5 to 10 years.
Meeting the growing demand Harmonisation
Leverage from the existing deployment and maximise the economy of scale
Facilitate innovation and roaming
Reduce the device costs by – limiting the complexity of
the radio design and the cost of mobile hardware
– helping managing cross-border interference
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Crucial to secure the same allocation and band plan to support harmonisation
Maximise the harmonisation Digital Dividend: 790 – 862 MHz
Support the following band plan with 5MHz block size for LTE technology
Favour contiguous 2x10 MHz per operator to fully leverage on Mobile Broadband technology
Maximise the harmonisation Leverage on the economy of scale (facilitate the access) Facilitate the cross-border coordination
791 832 862
FDD downlink FDD uplinkGuard
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30 MHz (6 blocks of 5 MHz) 30 MHz (6 blocks of 5 MHz)
Maximise the harmonisation 2.6 GHz band: 2500 – 2690 MHz
Fixed vs. flexible band plans– Adopting a fixed band plan is best and lead to global
harmonization in the use of the band– Clear from both prior auctions and operator announcements that
the ITU Option 1 band plan is preferred
In addition,– The Arab states markets should preferably adopt global band
plans– The adoption of ITU Option 1 for 2.6 GHz will yield large
economies of scale in both network equipment and handsets
2500 2620 2690
FDD uplink FDD downlinkTDD
2570
Meeting the growing demand Spectrum & Infrastructure Sharing Aspects
Regulatory framework should facilitate operator’s engagement in voluntary infrastructure and/or spectrum sharing.
Regulatory framework should remove restrictions on operators negotiating and concluding agreements governed by private law on sharing in bands dedicated to Mobile Broadband.
Meeting the growing demand Licensing framework to support investment
Stability of the overall licensing framework facilitates investment
announcing in advance a long term plan for reform of the spectrum and operating licensing framework
facilitating international harmonisation so that equipment and devices use the same frequency bands to support international roaming and enable the realisation of scale economies in manufacture
publicly setting out the criteria and process to be followed in licensing decisions and including public written consultation in advance of key decisions being made
Meeting the growing demand Assignment and renewal of licenses
Importance to set out approach to licence renewal in advance of the expiry of the licence
At least 2 to 4 years in advance
Avoid network investment being postponed
Publish the criteria to be used to assess renewal as well as the terms and conditions to be applied to the renewed licence
Study on socio-economic benefits Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
GSMA performed a study case on the benefit to release internationally harmonised spectrum band plans at 2.6GHz and at 800MHz.
Highlight considerable socio-economic benefits from the release of harmonised spectrum for use by mobile operators to deliver next-generation mobile broadband service
Key opportunity – broadband improves GDP and job growth…..
For the full report, please visit:
www.gsma.com/spectrum/spectrum-resources/spectrum-research/socio-economic\_benefit_of_allocating_harmonised_spectrum_in_Kingdom_of_Saudi_Arabia
Socio-economic benefitAllocating harmonised mobile broadband spectrum in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (1/3)
A delay in spectrum assignment of 5 years would reduce the expected number of mobile broadband subscribers to 20 million by 2020 and to 47.5 million by 2025.
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Additional mobile broadband subscriberswith 2013 release
Additional mobile broadband subscriberswith 2018 release
Mobile broadband subscribers with current3G spectrum only
Impact on Mobile Broadband subscriber
Socio-economic benefitAllocating harmonised mobile broadband spectrum in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (2/3)
In 2020, the additional GDP resulting from enhanced growth in mobile broadband subscriptions would amount to SAR52.4 billion, if spectrum is released by 2013. A five-year delay in assigning the spectrum would reduce this gain to SAR9.3 billion.
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
SA
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Additional GDP with spectrumrelease in 2013
Additional GDP with spectrumrelease in 2018
The impact of spectrum release on GDP in KSA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]
Impact on GDP (Gross domestic product) growth
Socio-economic benefitAllocating harmonised mobile broadband spectrum in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (3/3)
In 2020, the additional employment resulting from enhanced growth in mobile broadband subscriptions would amount to 424 000 jobs, if spectrum is released by 2013. A delay in spectrum assign of five years would reduce this gain to 75 000.
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
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Additional employment(2013 spectrum release)
Additional employment(2018 spectrum release)
The impact of spectrum release on employment in KSA [Source: Analysys Mason, 2012]
Impact on job growth
Summary Meeting the growth in demand for mobile services
Data demand continues to grow1. Additional spectrum being made available and ensuring that the
spectrum goes to the use and users which will maximise its benefits to society
2. Facilitating international harmonisation to support roaming and enable scale economies to lower the cost of equipment
Licensing issues are critical1. Removing unnecessary restrictions on the use of spectrum including
allowing for new Mobile Broadband technologies
2. Ensuring a fair and predictable licensing environment facilitates the investments required to take full advantage of a country’s spectrum resources