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Use of Ensemble Forecast
Robert MureauKNMI
Marco Nolet
Reading 16 june 2005
Content Simple EPS verification First guess 5 day forecast New EPS plume product
Simple verification T2m (T00/T12) Ensemble mean Oper Forecaster
Winters 97-04
Summers 97-2003
T00 1997-2004 T+132
T12 1997-2004 T+144
T00 T+228
T12 T+240
Day 5 Tmin dec 1999- 2004
Day 5 Tmax Dec 1999-2004
Marco Nolet
Error Tmax De Bilt (day 1-5)
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-
72
Jan-
73
Jan-
74
Jan-
75
Jan-
76
Jan-
77
Jan-
78
Jan-
79
Jan-
80
Jan-
81
Jan-
82
Jan-
83
Jan-
84
Jan-
85
Jan-
86
Jan-
87
Jan-
88
Jan-
89
Jan-
90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Bias
MAE1234
5
Climate
Climate
Tmax 1972-2002
Dag 5 Tmax: Overschrijdingen per maand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-
81
Jan-
82
Jan-
83
Jan-
84
Jan-
85
Jan-
86
Jan-
87
Jan-
88
Jan-
89
Jan-
90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Pe
rce
nta
ge
>2
>2
>3
>4
>5
1981-2002
Dag 5 Tmin: Overschrijdingen per maand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-
81
Jan-
82
Jan-
83
Jan-
84
Jan-
85
Jan-
86
Jan-
87
Jan-
88
Jan-
89
Jan-
90
Jan-
91
Jan-
92
Jan-
93
Jan-
94
Jan-
95
Jan-
96
Jan-
97
Jan-
98
Jan-
99
Jan-
00
Jan-
01
Jan-
02
Per
cen
tag
e
>2
>2
>3
>4
>5
Conclusions verification part No real trends in rms Bias control and ens mean are similar Gap opens at day 3 ? Ensemble mean best deterministic
value for money (but very safe)
First guess 5 day forecast
First Guess Table First guess 5 day forecast ( including
error margins ) Probabilities of events Special link with probabilities of severe
weather events
Table internet table
New EPS plot layout
Recommended