US Program Overview

US Program OverviewUS Program Overview

Scott Denning, Chair

NACP Science Steering Group

NACP NACP QuestionsQuestions

1. What is the carbon balance of North America and adjacent oceans? What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO2, CH4, and CO? How is the balance changing over time? (“Diagnosis”)

2. What processes control the sources and sinks of CO2, CH4, and CO, and how do the controls change with time? (“Attribution/Processes”)

3. Are there potential surprises (could sources increase or sinks disappear)? (“Prediction”)

4. How can we enhance and manage long-lived carbon sinks ("sequestration"), and provide resources to support decision makers?(“Decision support”)

Sources, Sinks, and ProcessesSources, Sinks, and Processes

economics institutions policy

ocean forests farms oceancities industry

atmosphere

• Carbon exchanges with the atmosphere over North America are managed by people

• Decision Support Task Force to engage stockholders and help coordinate research & reporting

foresters farmers citizens industrialists

Program Elements: Question 1Program Elements: Question 1

Diagnosis of Current Carbon Diagnosis of Current Carbon BudgetsBudgets

• A hierarchical approach for large-scale, distributed terrestrial measurements

• Substantially improved fossil fuel emissions inventories with high resolution downscaling in time and space, and methods for evaluating these inventories using atmospheric measurements

• Hydrologic transfers of carbon over land, and sequestration in sediments

• Ocean measurements and modeling, both in the coastal zone and the open ocean, in coordination with the OCCC

• An atmospheric observing system consisting of ground stations, aircraft and measurements from towers

• Spatially-distributed modeling of carbon cycle processes

• Model-data fusion and data assimilation to produce optimal estimates of spatial and temporal variations that are consistent with observations and process understanding

• Interdisciplinary intensive field campaigns designed to evaluate major components of the model-data fusion framework

0 >2.0

%disturbed / yr

Forest Disturbance Forest Disturbance

LEDAPS Project PI: Jeff Masek (NASA GSFC)

NACP Data CubesPI: Samuel Goward (UMD)

Landsat-based records of North American forest disturbance

Courtesy Jeff Masek, NASA GSFC

North American BiomassNorth American Biomass

J. Kellendorfer,WHOI

Courtesy Jeff Masek, NASA GSFC

Year Two

Year Three

Year Four

Year Five

Five-Year Panel:

Year One

USDA Forest Service FIA Plotsa gift to the NACP

• 6000 acre grid cells• 1 plot per grid cell• >800K plots• each plot visited every 5 (east) or 10 (west) years

Courtesy Dave Hollinger, USFS

Average annual live tree C stock change by Average annual live tree C stock change by

county, estimated from FIA datacounty, estimated from FIA data

MgC/ha/yr

Courtesy of Linda Heath, USFS

Net cumulative change in soil carbon from 1991-2000 caused by changes in tillage intensity and crop rotations.

Net change = 67.7 Tg C.

Estimates of soil carbon change at 30x30m resolution using combination of remote sensing and inventory products

Courtesy Tris West, ORNL

NACP and Coastal OceansNACP and Coastal Oceans

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

• Downstream reservoir for river DIC, DOC, and nutrients

• Both upstream and downstream boundary for atmospheric trace gases

• A zone of intense carbon and nutrient cycling in which biogeochemical processes are not well observed or quantified

Courtesy Scott Doney, WHOI

Inverse ModelingInverse Modeling

Air Parcel Air Parcel

Air Parcel

Sources Sinks

transport transport

(model) (solve for)

concentration transport sources and sinks(observe)

Sample Sample

N.A. Atmospheric CON.A. Atmospheric CO22 Obs: Obs: 20042004

Ring of Towers (summer 2004 Ring of Towers (summer 2004 only)only)

Expansion of Network? (2006)Expansion of Network? (2006)

NACP “Mid-Continent Intensive” NACP “Mid-Continent Intensive” (2007)(2007)

““Operational” Atmospheric Operational” Atmospheric BudgetsBudgets

Courtesy Wouter Peters, NOAA ESRL

Research Elements: Question 2Research Elements: Question 2

Processes Controlling Carbon Processes Controlling Carbon BudgetsBudgets

• Carbon consequences of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in atmospheric CO2, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen deposition, and climate

• Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in disturbance regimes, forest management, and land use

• Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to agricultural and range management

• The impacts of lateral flows of carbon in surface water from land to fresh water and to coastal ocean environments

• Estuarine biogeochemical transformations;

• Coastal marine ecology and sedimentation;

• Air-sea exchange and marine carbon transport; and

• Human institutions and economics

• Urban & suburban land management

Warming Experiments in OklahomaWarming Experiments in Oklahoma

Long-term: 7-yearsLong-term: 7-yearsWarming: 2Warming: 2ooCCClipping: YearlyClipping: Yearly

One year, step changeOne year, step changeWarming: 4Warming: 4ooC C Precipitation: doubledPrecipitation: doubled

Courtesy Yiqi Luo, Univ of OK

Plant community

Leaf Ps

Phenology

Growing season

Plant growth

Microbial community

Plant N uptake

Plant & soil C

Available N

Quality of bulk litter

Respiration

NUE

Litter Decomposition

Mechanisms underlying carbon-climate Feedback (after 6 years of ecosystem manipulation)

1. Warming extended growing seasons

2. Warming stimulated C4 plant growth

3. Warming increased nutrient availability

4. All the above leads to increases in NPP

5. Warming stimulated respiration in a similar percentage to NPP

6. No net change in carbon balance or storage!

Courtesy Yiqi Luo, Univ of OK

Project VULCAN Emissions Project VULCAN Emissions EstimatesEstimates

(AREA Sources)(AREA Sources)natlog of tonnes C/day: January 3, 2002

Country-level consumptionDistrib. By

Courtesy Kevin Gurney, Purdue Univ

Project VULCAN Emissions Project VULCAN Emissions EstimatesEstimates

(POINT Sources)(POINT Sources)

Tonnes C/day/facility

Courtesy Kevin Gurney, Purdue Univ

Project VULCAN Emissions Project VULCAN Emissions EstimatesEstimates

(ROAD Sources)(ROAD Sources)

Courtesy Kevin Gurney, Purdue Univ

Program Elements: Question 3Program Elements: Question 3

Predictive ModelingPredictive Modeling• Transfer of synthesized information from process studies

into prognostic carbon-cycle models

• Retrospective analyses to evaluate the spatial and temporal dynamics of disturbance regimes simulated by prognostic models

• Evaluation of predictions of interannual variations with predictive models against continued monitoring using observational networks and diagnostic model-data fusion systems

• Development of scenarios of future changes in driving variables of prognostic models

• Application and comparison of prognostic models to evaluate the sensitivity of carbon storage into the future

• Incorporation of prognostic models into coupled models of the climate system

Ecosystem Demography (ED) ModelEcosystem Demography (ED) Model

An “atmospheric” grid cell

contains many patches

Fast time scale dynamics:

Long time scale

dynamics:

Courtesy David Medvigy, Duke Univ

Program Elements: Question 4Program Elements: Question 4

Decision SupportDecision Support

• North American contribution to the State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR, King talk later today)

• Analysis of the longevity of sinks

• Assessment of sequestration options given best scientific evaluation of present and future behavior of carbon cycling

• Provide scientific understanding to inform management of the carbon cycle given improved understanding, diagnosis, and prediction

• Early detection of carbon cycle risks and vulnerabilities

• Scenario development for simulation of future climate

North America is currently a net source of CO2 (1264 Mt C yr-1), with 30% of fossil fuel emissions (1856 464 Mt C yr-1 in 2003) offset by a net terrestrial sink of 592 296 Mt C yr-1.

SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report

Courtesy Tony King, ORNL

NACP Integration StrategyNACP Integration Strategy

• Process studies and manipulative experiments inform improved models

• Systematic observations of land, ocean, and atmosphere used to evaluate models

• Innovative model-data fusion techniques produce optimal estimates of time mean and spatial and temporal variations in fluxes and stocks

• Improved models used to predict future variations, and tested against ongoing diagnostic analyses

• Predictive models and continuing analyses used to enhance decision support

experiments

diagnosticmodels

observingnetworks

predictivemodels

decisionsupport

maps of variable

fluxes and stocks

model/datafusion

ConclusionsConclusions

• NACP consists of hundreds of individual research projects, supported by 9 US agencies

• Ambitious objectives: diagnosis, attribution, prediction, and decision support for carbon cycle science over North America

• Some easy connections and collaborations with colleagues in Canada and Mexico, some will no doubt have to find one another

• Let’s get to work!