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US Program Overview. Scott Denning, Chair NACP Science Steering Group. NACP Questions. What is the carbon balance of North America and adjacent oceans? What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO 2 , CH 4 , and CO? How is the balance changing over time? (“ Diagnosis ”) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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US Program OverviewUS Program Overview
Scott Denning, Chair
NACP Science Steering Group
NACP NACP QuestionsQuestions
1. What is the carbon balance of North America and adjacent oceans? What are the geographic patterns of fluxes of CO2, CH4, and CO? How is the balance changing over time? (“Diagnosis”)
2. What processes control the sources and sinks of CO2, CH4, and CO, and how do the controls change with time? (“Attribution/Processes”)
3. Are there potential surprises (could sources increase or sinks disappear)? (“Prediction”)
4. How can we enhance and manage long-lived carbon sinks ("sequestration"), and provide resources to support decision makers?(“Decision support”)
Sources, Sinks, and ProcessesSources, Sinks, and Processes
economics institutions policy
ocean forests farms oceancities industry
atmosphere
• Carbon exchanges with the atmosphere over North America are managed by people
• Decision Support Task Force to engage stockholders and help coordinate research & reporting
foresters farmers citizens industrialists
Program Elements: Question 1Program Elements: Question 1
Diagnosis of Current Carbon Diagnosis of Current Carbon BudgetsBudgets
• A hierarchical approach for large-scale, distributed terrestrial measurements
• Substantially improved fossil fuel emissions inventories with high resolution downscaling in time and space, and methods for evaluating these inventories using atmospheric measurements
• Hydrologic transfers of carbon over land, and sequestration in sediments
• Ocean measurements and modeling, both in the coastal zone and the open ocean, in coordination with the OCCC
• An atmospheric observing system consisting of ground stations, aircraft and measurements from towers
• Spatially-distributed modeling of carbon cycle processes
• Model-data fusion and data assimilation to produce optimal estimates of spatial and temporal variations that are consistent with observations and process understanding
• Interdisciplinary intensive field campaigns designed to evaluate major components of the model-data fusion framework
0 >2.0
%disturbed / yr
Forest Disturbance Forest Disturbance
LEDAPS Project PI: Jeff Masek (NASA GSFC)
NACP Data CubesPI: Samuel Goward (UMD)
Landsat-based records of North American forest disturbance
Courtesy Jeff Masek, NASA GSFC
North American BiomassNorth American Biomass
J. Kellendorfer,WHOI
Courtesy Jeff Masek, NASA GSFC
Year Two
Year Three
Year Four
Year Five
Five-Year Panel:
Year One
USDA Forest Service FIA Plotsa gift to the NACP
• 6000 acre grid cells• 1 plot per grid cell• >800K plots• each plot visited every 5 (east) or 10 (west) years
Courtesy Dave Hollinger, USFS
Average annual live tree C stock change by Average annual live tree C stock change by
county, estimated from FIA datacounty, estimated from FIA data
MgC/ha/yr
Courtesy of Linda Heath, USFS
Net cumulative change in soil carbon from 1991-2000 caused by changes in tillage intensity and crop rotations.
Net change = 67.7 Tg C.
Estimates of soil carbon change at 30x30m resolution using combination of remote sensing and inventory products
Courtesy Tris West, ORNL
NACP and Coastal OceansNACP and Coastal Oceans
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
• Downstream reservoir for river DIC, DOC, and nutrients
• Both upstream and downstream boundary for atmospheric trace gases
• A zone of intense carbon and nutrient cycling in which biogeochemical processes are not well observed or quantified
Courtesy Scott Doney, WHOI
Inverse ModelingInverse Modeling
Air Parcel Air Parcel
Air Parcel
Sources Sinks
transport transport
(model) (solve for)
concentration transport sources and sinks(observe)
Sample Sample
N.A. Atmospheric CON.A. Atmospheric CO22 Obs: Obs: 20042004
Ring of Towers (summer 2004 Ring of Towers (summer 2004 only)only)
Expansion of Network? (2006)Expansion of Network? (2006)
NACP “Mid-Continent Intensive” NACP “Mid-Continent Intensive” (2007)(2007)
““Operational” Atmospheric Operational” Atmospheric BudgetsBudgets
Courtesy Wouter Peters, NOAA ESRL
Research Elements: Question 2Research Elements: Question 2
Processes Controlling Carbon Processes Controlling Carbon BudgetsBudgets
• Carbon consequences of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in atmospheric CO2, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen deposition, and climate
• Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in disturbance regimes, forest management, and land use
• Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to agricultural and range management
• The impacts of lateral flows of carbon in surface water from land to fresh water and to coastal ocean environments
• Estuarine biogeochemical transformations;
• Coastal marine ecology and sedimentation;
• Air-sea exchange and marine carbon transport; and
• Human institutions and economics
• Urban & suburban land management
Warming Experiments in OklahomaWarming Experiments in Oklahoma
Long-term: 7-yearsLong-term: 7-yearsWarming: 2Warming: 2ooCCClipping: YearlyClipping: Yearly
One year, step changeOne year, step changeWarming: 4Warming: 4ooC C Precipitation: doubledPrecipitation: doubled
Courtesy Yiqi Luo, Univ of OK
Plant community
Leaf Ps
Phenology
Growing season
Plant growth
Microbial community
Plant N uptake
Plant & soil C
Available N
Quality of bulk litter
Respiration
NUE
Litter Decomposition
Mechanisms underlying carbon-climate Feedback (after 6 years of ecosystem manipulation)
1. Warming extended growing seasons
2. Warming stimulated C4 plant growth
3. Warming increased nutrient availability
4. All the above leads to increases in NPP
5. Warming stimulated respiration in a similar percentage to NPP
6. No net change in carbon balance or storage!
Courtesy Yiqi Luo, Univ of OK
Project VULCAN Emissions Project VULCAN Emissions EstimatesEstimates
(AREA Sources)(AREA Sources)natlog of tonnes C/day: January 3, 2002
Country-level consumptionDistrib. By
Courtesy Kevin Gurney, Purdue Univ
Project VULCAN Emissions Project VULCAN Emissions EstimatesEstimates
(POINT Sources)(POINT Sources)
Tonnes C/day/facility
Courtesy Kevin Gurney, Purdue Univ
Project VULCAN Emissions Project VULCAN Emissions EstimatesEstimates
(ROAD Sources)(ROAD Sources)
Courtesy Kevin Gurney, Purdue Univ
Program Elements: Question 3Program Elements: Question 3
Predictive ModelingPredictive Modeling• Transfer of synthesized information from process studies
into prognostic carbon-cycle models
• Retrospective analyses to evaluate the spatial and temporal dynamics of disturbance regimes simulated by prognostic models
• Evaluation of predictions of interannual variations with predictive models against continued monitoring using observational networks and diagnostic model-data fusion systems
• Development of scenarios of future changes in driving variables of prognostic models
• Application and comparison of prognostic models to evaluate the sensitivity of carbon storage into the future
• Incorporation of prognostic models into coupled models of the climate system
Ecosystem Demography (ED) ModelEcosystem Demography (ED) Model
An “atmospheric” grid cell
contains many patches
Fast time scale dynamics:
Long time scale
dynamics:
Courtesy David Medvigy, Duke Univ
Program Elements: Question 4Program Elements: Question 4
Decision SupportDecision Support
• North American contribution to the State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR, King talk later today)
• Analysis of the longevity of sinks
• Assessment of sequestration options given best scientific evaluation of present and future behavior of carbon cycling
• Provide scientific understanding to inform management of the carbon cycle given improved understanding, diagnosis, and prediction
• Early detection of carbon cycle risks and vulnerabilities
• Scenario development for simulation of future climate
North America is currently a net source of CO2 (1264 Mt C yr-1), with 30% of fossil fuel emissions (1856 464 Mt C yr-1 in 2003) offset by a net terrestrial sink of 592 296 Mt C yr-1.
SOCCR CCSP SAP 2.2 State of the Carbon Cycle Report
Courtesy Tony King, ORNL
NACP Integration StrategyNACP Integration Strategy
• Process studies and manipulative experiments inform improved models
• Systematic observations of land, ocean, and atmosphere used to evaluate models
• Innovative model-data fusion techniques produce optimal estimates of time mean and spatial and temporal variations in fluxes and stocks
• Improved models used to predict future variations, and tested against ongoing diagnostic analyses
• Predictive models and continuing analyses used to enhance decision support
experiments
diagnosticmodels
observingnetworks
predictivemodels
decisionsupport
maps of variable
fluxes and stocks
model/datafusion
ConclusionsConclusions
• NACP consists of hundreds of individual research projects, supported by 9 US agencies
• Ambitious objectives: diagnosis, attribution, prediction, and decision support for carbon cycle science over North America
• Some easy connections and collaborations with colleagues in Canada and Mexico, some will no doubt have to find one another
• Let’s get to work!