UPCOMING WEBINARS

IMPROVING AD PERFORMANCE WITH THE 3 R’S – FEB. 28TH

THINK SMALL FOR BIG RESULTS

James Russo - Global Consumer InsightsCarman Allison – Shopper & Industry

WHAT’S IN STORE 2013

TODAY’S PRESENTER

CARMAN ALLISONDirector, Consumer Insights, Nielsen, Canada

Carman Allison is responsible for creating and delivering thought leadership to manufacturer and retailer clients and at CPG industry events. A frequently sought-after speaker, Carman is often quoted in the Canadian press on consumer trends including a monthly column in Canadian Grocer.

Carman has more than 20 years of experience in the consumer research industry with Nielsen, where he held various account management and analysis roles.

THINK SMALL FOR BIG RESULTS

James Russo - Global Consumer InsightsCarman Allison – Shopper & Industry

WHAT’S IN STORE 2013

THE WORLD HAS CHANGED

THE WORLD HAS CHANGED...PERMANENTLY

$35trillion

$45trillion

$62trillion

2010 2015 2020

29% increase

in 5 years

38% increase

in 5 years

AND THE OPPORTUNITIES ARE IMMENSE$450 TRILLION

Source: Nielsen Demand Institute

IT’S TIME TO ACT DIFFERENTLYIN THIS SESSSION, WE ARE CHANGING:

The way you assess your marketplace

How you sell to your consumer

Your views of advertising

Where you innovate

Where your growth will be achieved

CANADIAN GROWTH IS SLOWING

Source: October 2012 World Economic Outlook Report and Statistics Canada, December 2012

Actual and Projected Canadian GDP Growth (2006-2017)

FUTURE GROWTH PROJECTIONS MODEST

Actual and Projected Canadian GDP Growth (2006-2017)

Source: October 2012 World Economic Outlook Report and Statistics Canada, December 2012

Nielsen Canada Consumer Confidence Index

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE HIGHEST SINCE MID 2011

Source: Nielsen Global Omnibus Consumer Confidence Survey 3Q12

12Source: Nielsen Global Omnibus Consumer Confidence Survey 3Q2012 vs year ago - Canada

What are your Top 2 concerns over the next six months…

DEBT AND ECONOMIC CONCERNS REMAIN IN THE FOREFRONT OF CONSUMER MINDS

VOLATILE, UNCERTAIN BUT IMPROVING FACTORS

FUEL COSTSEQUITY MARKETS

LABOUR MARKETS

HOUSING

INFLATION GOVERNMENT

HOUSEHOLD BALANCE SHEET NOT IMPROVING

AVG INCOME INCOME TO DEBT RATIO

• 2012: $46.6K+3% from 2011+14% from 2007

• 2012: 164.6 +6%• 2011: 160.9• 2007: 124.9

Source: Statistics Canada

CPG PERFORMANCE STILL STRAINED

Source: Nielsen MarketTrack, Canada National All Channels – 52 weeks ending December 15, 2012Total Tracked Sales excluding Fresh Random Weight

POLL #1:

YESNONOT SURE

DO YOU THINK CANADA IS CURRENTLY IN A RECESSION?

AS WE HEAD INTO 2013…..

Canadian Recession Officially Ends

3.5 yearsJune 2009 NBER Nov 2012 NIELSEN

49% of consumers say we are in a recession

Source: Nielsen Global Omnibus Consumer Confidence Survey 3Q2012 vs year ago - Canada

DO YOU THINK CANADA WILL BE OUT OF A RECESSION IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? % SAYING YES

CONSUMER STILL CAUTIOUS ABOUT THE FUTURE

Source: Nielsen Global Omnibus Consumer Confidence Survey 3Q2012 vs year ago - Canada

FINDING GROWTH IN 2013THINK SMALL FOR BIG RESULTS

EVIDENCE FOUND ACROSS THE ORGANIZATION

1. Economic2. Demographic3. Retail4. Consumption5. Innovation

6. Advertising7. Digital8. Viewing Habits9. Entertainment10. Analytics

ECONOMICThe shift to smaller housing formats

CONSUMERS ARE REDEFINING HOME OWNERSHIP

Source: CMHC 2012 Report

67%homeownership

Average Household Price $363k

Single Dwelling -11%Multi +14%

• Vancouver $780k• Toronto $466k• Montreal $314k

AS A RESULT, SHOPPING HABITS WILL CHANGE

Source: The Demand Institute

MORE FREQUENT SHOPPING & SMALLER BASKETS

MORE INTEREST IN LOCAL STORES

MORE ONLINE REPLENISHMENT

SMALL HOMEFURNISHINGS

FURNITURE &APPLIANCES

SMALLERPACK SIZES

DUE TO LESS STORAGEWILL CONTINUE TO THRIVE WILL BE SMALLER

DEMOGRAPHICSmaller Household size

HOUSEHOLD SIZE CONTINUES TO SHRINK

1-2 MEMBER HOUSEHOLDS

• 1970: 38.7%• 2012: 62.7%

Source: Statistics Canada

GOODS AND SERVICES CHANGE AS A RESULT

SMALLER IN SIZE, BUT SHOPS MORE FREQUENTLY

Source: Nielsen Homescan: 52 weeks to June 30 2012 - Canada

TRIPS PER SHOPPER SPEND PER TRIP

1-2 mem: 1823+ mem: 177

1-2 mem: $363+ mem: $51

RETAILWhere we transact is getting smaller

BIG BOX TO ONLINE TO SMART PHONES

TO SMALLER STORES

TO VIRTUALSTORES

RETAIL FORMATS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE

SMARTPHONES ARE REDEFINING CONSUMER CONNECTION POINTS

37% of Canadians

39% Willing to shop a virtual store

35% Willing to use a retailer loyalty app

24% Willing to use phone to pay

Source: Canadian PanelViews Social Media Survey Oct 2012

CONSUMPTIONDifferentiate with local & Fresh

WITH SHOPPER TRIPS DECLINING, DIFFERENTIATION IS ESSENTIAL

ECONOMIC GROWTH GREAT RECESSION POST RECESSION

226Avg Annual Trips Per

Shopper

2006 2009 2012

Source: Nielsen Homescan: 52 weeks - Canada

1.5 to 2.1Times Larger

with Fresh

33%Grocery

Store Sales

FRESH DRIVES GROWTH AND DEMAND

Sources: Homescan, Canada Grocery Stores: 52 weeks to July 7, 2012

53%look for quality

fresh when deciding where

to shop

INNOVATIONTargeting growth in new markets

GLOBAL PRODUCT INNOVATIONReviewed 35 years of new product concepts

20121978 2008

175,000 concepts were testedacross 73 countries between 1978 - 2012.

Sources: Nielsen BASES

POPULATION OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

68th Kenya 40,046,566 64th Tanzania 41,892,895

52nd S. Africa 49,109,107

15th Nigeria 152,217,341

68th15th

Sources: CIA Worldfactbook

HOWEVER IT IS THE ONLY GLOBAL REGION, WHERE EACH COUNTRY REALIZED GROWTH IN INNOVATION2012 vs 2011

+43% Kenya +17% Tanzania

+12% Nigeria

+9% South Africa

43%12%

Sources: Nielsen BASES

VIEWINGLeveraging how we spend our time

POLL #2

OF THE TV CHANNELS YOU RECEIVE IN YOUR HOME, WHAT IS THE AVG. NUMBER OF CHANNELS YOU WATCH EACH WEEK?"

0% to 10%10% to 20%20% to 30%30% to 40%40% to 50%Over 50%

AVERAGE CHANNELS RECEIVABLE AND VIEWEDAverage hhld receives 180 channels but views only 17 of them each week

9%Source: NPOWER Length of Tuning, 10/01/2012 - 10/07/2012

TUNING IN TO LARGE AND SMALL NETWORKS

Source: NPOWER Length of Tuning, 10/01/2012 - 10/07/2012

With at least 15 minutes viewed, the likelihood of viewing commercials are just as high.

DIGITALSmaller devices gaining viewership

DIGITAL MEDIA IS CAPTURING MORE EYES

OVERALL USAGE – NUMBER OF USERS PERSONS 2+ (IN 000S) – MONTHLY REACH

-1.7% - Watching TV in Home 4.9% - Watching Time Shifted TV (all TV homes) 7.1% - Watching Time Shifted TV (only in DVR homes)

1.5% - Using the Internet on a Computer 4.2% - Watching Video on the Internet

1.0% - Using a Mobile Phone35.7% - Mobile Subscribers Watching Video on a Mobile Phone

Year over Year Change Q4 2010 vs Q4 2011

Sources: Nielsen Cross Platform

Average Daily Time Spent on Media Activity (h:mm)Total Population, March 2012

HOWEVER, TV STILL ACCOUNTS FOR 80% OF TIME

Source: Nielsen NPower, NetView, Video Census, and Smartphone Analytics

OTHER1:05

TV VIEWING4:32

Online Web Browsing | 0:32Mobile App Usage | 0:13

Time Shifted TV Viewing | 0:11Online Video Streaming | 0:04

Mobile Web Browsing | 0:03Mobile Video | 0:01

ADVERTISING EFFECTIVENESS

Strategic use of spots

WITH NEW FORMS OF MEDIA, COMES THE NEED FOR SHORTER SPOTS

Source: BETV Cross-Sector View of 15s vs, 30s Performance

How successful is the Ad at

connecting to the brand?

What is the Ad’s net branding success if we consider BOTH

Breakthrough & Brand Linkage?

How successful is the Ad at breaking through and being

remembered?

SUCCESSFUL BRAND CAMPAIGN ILLUSTRATING AN EFFECTIVE USE OF SPOTS

Source: BETV Cross-Sector View of 15s vs, 30s Performance

ENTERTAINMENTLeverage demographic shifts and endorsement potential

WHAT DO THESE 5 ATHLETES HAVE IN COMMON?

JEREMY LIN MICHEAL PHELPS

PEYTON MANNING

DAVID BECKHAM

MANNY PACQUIAO

ASIAN CONSUMERS HAVE VARIED SPORT ICONS

Sports personalities N-Score, among Asian consumers 01/01/2012 to 12/31/2012

TOP 10 SPORTS PERSONALITIES AMONG ASIAN CONSUMERS

ANALYTICSNew methods for finding growth by drilling deeper10

NEW INSIGHTS

NEW SOURCES social media

NEW ANALYTICS

NEW ANALYTICS RELATED TO

• Current, emerging and latent demand

• Most profitable consumers

• Demand Segments and Need States

• The right supply for the right market

• Shared understanding of how to win across the organization

Small to start, then took off…

CURRENT, EMERGING AND LATENT DEMAND•What are the key “Forces and Factors” shaping current, emerging and latent demand in your category?•What can you learn from analogous categories outside your own that can be applied to your business? •What can you learn from other geographic markets beyond your own?

POLL #3

WHAT IS THAT A PICTURE OF?

Flax SeedsHemp SeedsCouscousChia SeedsQuinou seeds

CHIA SEEDS – WHAT’S THE BUZZ ABOUT?

A fitness buff on Runnersworld.com asked about others’ experiences with chia seed consumption, causing many to share that the seeds are helpful in lowering blood pressure and are a good source of omega-3s.

After a board member on Myfitnesspal.com shared information about the nutritional benefits of chia seeds, many others chimed in to say that they were now interested in trying the “superfood”

A number of Twitter users shared their consumption in real-time,

A diabetic individual on Diabeticconnect.org shared ideas and recipes for using chia seeds, prompting others to discuss which retailers carry the product in their stores.

Trended Buzz for Chia Seeds

Nutrition Enthusiasts Mainstream

Source: Nielsen NM Incite

NEW SOURCES Role of social medial

NEW INSIGHTS Leverage current, emerging or latent demand

NEW FINANCIALS

WE ARE IN A NEW STAGE OF BUSINESS

Source:

EITHER RIDE THE WAVE OR GET CRUSHED BY IT

2013 WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY• A CONSUMER REMAINS IN

MAINTENANCE MODE

• UNCERTAINITY DOMINATES

• WEAK EARLY, STRONGER LATE

IT’S TIME TO ACT DIFFERENTLYREALIZING GROWTH IN 2013

The way you assess your marketplace

How you sell to your consumer

Your views of advertising

Where you innovate

Where your growth will be achieved

THANK YOU FOR ATTENDING

• If you have follow-up questions or want more information, please contact your Nielsen Professional Services rep

• If you are not a current Nielsen client, please contact us

Phone: 800-553-3727

Email: CPGSolutions@nielsen.com

• OR, if you have any questions regarding the content of this webinar, you can also contact:

Carman Allison, email: Carman.Allison@nielsen.com

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