Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the ... · 8/18/2016  · GALAXIES AND...

- H . J A C K S O N B R O W N

Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn’t do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines.

Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade wind in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover.

C O S M I C O R I G I N S S C I E N C E W I T H L U V O I R

L U V O I R F 2 F, A U G U S T 1 8 2 0 1 6

T H A N K S G O O U T T O

T H A N K S G O O U T T O

• STDT members who submitted quicksheets or more

T H A N K S G O O U T T O

• STDT members who submitted quicksheets or more

• SWG sub-group community members who answered the call

T H A N K S G O O U T T O

• STDT members who submitted quicksheets or more

• SWG sub-group community members who answered the call

• International contributions

N O M AT T E R W H AT Y O U C O M E U P W I T H , LY M A N S P I T Z E R A L R E A D Y T H O U G H T O F I T

H I S T O R I C A L P O I N T # 1

N O M AT T E R W H AT Y O U C O M E U P W I T H , LY M A N S P I T Z E R A L R E A D Y T H O U G H T O F I T

H I S T O R I C A L P O I N T # 1

Spitzer, 1946

N O M AT T E R W H AT Y O U C O M E U P W I T H , LY M A N S P I T Z E R A L R E A D Y T H O U G H T O F I T

H I S T O R I C A L P O I N T # 1

Spitzer, 1946

C O S M I C O R I G I N S

NASA 2013 Roadmap

C O S M I C O R I G I N S

NASA 2013 Roadmap

C O R W I T H L U V O I R : F R O M T H E B I G B A N G T O B I O S I G N AT U R E S

C O R W I T H L U V O I R : F R O M T H E B I G B A N G T O B I O S I G N AT U R E S

C O R W I T H L U V O I R : F R O M T H E B I G B A N G T O B I O S I G N AT U R E S

C O R W I T H L U V O I R : F R O M T H E B I G B A N G T O B I O S I G N AT U R E S

C O S M O L O G Y, L A R G E S C A L E S T R U C T U R E , A N D D A R K M AT T E R

C O S M O L O G Y, L A R G E S C A L E S T R U C T U R E , A N D D A R K M AT T E R

• Greatly expand the volume for cross-calibration of standard candles (e.g. Cepheids), and bring the uncertainty in H0 to < 1% (Scowcroft)

C O S M O L O G Y, L A R G E S C A L E S T R U C T U R E , A N D D A R K M AT T E R

• Greatly expand the volume for cross-calibration of standard candles (e.g. Cepheids), and bring the uncertainty in H0 to < 1% (Scowcroft)

• Direct detection of the expansion of the universe (Shiminovich, O’Meara)

C O S M O L O G Y, L A R G E S C A L E S T R U C T U R E , A N D D A R K M AT T E R

• Greatly expand the volume for cross-calibration of standard candles (e.g. Cepheids), and bring the uncertainty in H0 to < 1% (Scowcroft)

• Direct detection of the expansion of the universe (Shiminovich, O’Meara)

• The power spectrum, thermal, and ionizing history of the IGM from 0 < z < 1.5, Helium reoinization (O’Meara, McCandliss)

C O S M O L O G Y, L A R G E S C A L E S T R U C T U R E , A N D D A R K M AT T E R

• Greatly expand the volume for cross-calibration of standard candles (e.g. Cepheids), and bring the uncertainty in H0 to < 1% (Scowcroft)

• Direct detection of the expansion of the universe (Shiminovich, O’Meara)

• The power spectrum, thermal, and ionizing history of the IGM from 0 < z < 1.5, Helium reoinization (O’Meara, McCandliss)

• The evolution of the escape of ionizing radiation over cosmic time (McCandliss)

K E E P T H E L U V I N L U V O I R !

G A L A X I E S A N D G A L A X Y E V O L U T I O N

G A L A X I E S A N D G A L A X Y E V O L U T I O N

• Understand structure formation and evolution in massive galaxies, and pushing into the central 1 kpc over cosmic time (Whitaker)

G A L A X I E S A N D G A L A X Y E V O L U T I O N

• Understand structure formation and evolution in massive galaxies, and pushing into the central 1 kpc over cosmic time (Whitaker)

• Dynamical masses for black holes in AGN, and the SMBH mass distribution (Peterson, Matsuoka)

G A L A X I E S A N D G A L A X Y E V O L U T I O N

• Understand structure formation and evolution in massive galaxies, and pushing into the central 1 kpc over cosmic time (Whitaker)

• Dynamical masses for black holes in AGN, and the SMBH mass distribution (Peterson, Matsuoka)

• Map the CGM in 2-D using quasars AND galaxies as background sources (Tumlinson, Matsuoka, O’Meara)

G A L A X I E S A N D G A L A X Y E V O L U T I O N

• Understand structure formation and evolution in massive galaxies, and pushing into the central 1 kpc over cosmic time (Whitaker)

• Dynamical masses for black holes in AGN, and the SMBH mass distribution (Peterson, Matsuoka)

• Map the CGM in 2-D using quasars AND galaxies as background sources (Tumlinson, Matsuoka, O’Meara)

• The first quasars (Matsuoka)

G A L A X I E S A N D G A L A X Y E V O L U T I O N

• Understand structure formation and evolution in massive galaxies, and pushing into the central 1 kpc over cosmic time (Whitaker)

• Dynamical masses for black holes in AGN, and the SMBH mass distribution (Peterson, Matsuoka)

• Map the CGM in 2-D using quasars AND galaxies as background sources (Tumlinson, Matsuoka, O’Meara)

• The first quasars (Matsuoka)

• The galaxy luminosity function from -16 < M < -10 , and direct observations of the gas and dust in the first, most metal-poor galaxies (Finkelstein)

G A L A X I E S A N D G A L A X Y E V O L U T I O N

• Understand structure formation and evolution in massive galaxies, and pushing into the central 1 kpc over cosmic time (Whitaker)

• Dynamical masses for black holes in AGN, and the SMBH mass distribution (Peterson, Matsuoka)

• Map the CGM in 2-D using quasars AND galaxies as background sources (Tumlinson, Matsuoka, O’Meara)

• The first quasars (Matsuoka)

• The galaxy luminosity function from -16 < M < -10 , and direct observations of the gas and dust in the first, most metal-poor galaxies (Finkelstein)

• Observing structures down to 0.0003L* (Postman)

S TA R F O R M I N G R E G I O N S D O W N T O 1 0 0 P C AT Z > 1

HST

4 m

6 m

8 m

10 m

12 m

source p

lane reco

nstruction

J. Rigby

F390W

F606W

S TA R S , S T E L L A R E V O L U T I O N , A N D T H E L O C A L U N I V E R S E

• Characterize the first stars, supernovae, and metals in the universe via UV spectra of the most metal poor stars (Roderer)

S TA R S , S T E L L A R E V O L U T I O N , A N D T H E L O C A L U N I V E R S E

S TA R S , S T E L L A R E V O L U T I O N , A N D T H E L O C A L U N I V E R S E• Characterize the first stars, supernovae, and metals in the universe via

UV spectra of the most metal poor stars (Roderer)

S TA R S , S T E L L A R E V O L U T I O N , A N D T H E L O C A L U N I V E R S E• Characterize the first stars, supernovae, and metals in the universe via

UV spectra of the most metal poor stars (Roderer)

• Very early/very late time observation of SNe for unique signatures of the progenitor appear (Graham)

S TA R S , S T E L L A R E V O L U T I O N , A N D T H E L O C A L U N I V E R S E• Characterize the first stars, supernovae, and metals in the universe via

UV spectra of the most metal poor stars (Roderer)

• Very early/very late time observation of SNe for unique signatures of the progenitor appear (Graham)

• Robust exploration of the environments where planets form (France, Pascucci, Fleming)

S TA R S , S T E L L A R E V O L U T I O N , A N D T H E L O C A L U N I V E R S E• Characterize the first stars, supernovae, and metals in the universe via

UV spectra of the most metal poor stars (Roderer)

• Very early/very late time observation of SNe for unique signatures of the progenitor appear (Graham)

• Robust exploration of the environments where planets form (France, Pascucci, Fleming)

• Measure protostellar jet mass flux, collimation, rotation, interaction. Measure the launching and mass flux of disk winds, and mass flows in the inner disk (Schneider, Herczeg, Gómez de Castro)

S TA R S , S T E L L A R E V O L U T I O N , A N D T H E L O C A L U N I V E R S E• Characterize the first stars, supernovae, and metals in the universe via

UV spectra of the most metal poor stars (Roderer)

• Very early/very late time observation of SNe for unique signatures of the progenitor appear (Graham)

• Robust exploration of the environments where planets form (France, Pascucci, Fleming)

• Measure protostellar jet mass flux, collimation, rotation, interaction. Measure the launching and mass flux of disk winds, and mass flows in the inner disk (Schneider, Herczeg, Gómez de Castro)

• The extinction law from UV to IR in the Galaxy (Gómez de Castro)

Y O D A W A S R I G H T

H I S T O R I C A L P O I N T 2

Y O D A W A S R I G H T

H I S T O R I C A L P O I N T 2

“you want the impossible”

“you want the impossible”

“you want the impossible”

“that…is why you fail”

W H AT D O E S I T M E A N T O “ D O T H E I M P O S S I B L E ”

W H AT D O E S I T M E A N T O “ D O T H E I M P O S S I B L E ”

• Perform a measurement or make a discovery that has never been made

W H AT D O E S I T M E A N T O “ D O T H E I M P O S S I B L E ”

• Perform a measurement or make a discovery that has never been made

• Hard to predict

W H AT D O E S I T M E A N T O “ D O T H E I M P O S S I B L E ”

• Perform a measurement or make a discovery that has never been made

• Hard to predict

• A different, operational definition: turn a program that requires > 1000 hours into a routine one

W H AT D O E S I T M E A N T O “ D O T H E I M P O S S I B L E ” ?

Time in hours

1 10 100 10,0001,000

W H AT D O E S I T M E A N T O “ D O T H E I M P O S S I B L E ” ?

Time in hours

1 10 100 10,0001,000

All the time!

W H AT D O E S I T M E A N T O “ D O T H E I M P O S S I B L E ” ?

Time in hours

1 10 100 10,0001,000

6-10 times per year.

All the time!

W H AT D O E S I T M E A N T O “ D O T H E I M P O S S I B L E ” ?

Time in hours

1 10 100 10,0001,000

You might do it. Once or twice.

6-10 times per year.

All the time!

W H AT D O E S I T M E A N T O “ D O T H E I M P O S S I B L E ” ?

Time in hours

1 10 100 10,0001,000

Nope!You might do it. Once or twice.

6-10 times per year.

All the time!

P O I N T S O U R C E U V S P E C T R O S C O P Y

P O I N T S O U R C E U V S P E C T R O S C O P Y

I M P L I C AT I O N S F O R A P E R T U R E

I M P L I C AT I O N S F O R A P E R T U R E

• A science case “requiring” 10+ meter apertures might be met with the retort “we can do that with 6 meters!”

I M P L I C AT I O N S F O R A P E R T U R E

• A science case “requiring” 10+ meter apertures might be met with the retort “we can do that with 6 meters!”

• Sometimes this is right! You can, but you probably won’t

I M P L I C AT I O N S F O R A P E R T U R E

• A science case “requiring” 10+ meter apertures might be met with the retort “we can do that with 6 meters!”

• Sometimes this is right! You can, but you probably won’t

• Smaller apertures take longer times, reducing the number of large investments you can make, shrinking the total discovery space

I M P L I C AT I O N S F O R A P E R T U R E

I M P L I C AT I O N S F O R A P E R T U R E

• We should not be comparing raw capacity when we compare apertures

I M P L I C AT I O N S F O R A P E R T U R E

• We should not be comparing raw capacity when we compare apertures

• We should compare total science programs, considered holistically, bound by the ultimate limited resource: mission lifetime

D O I N G T H E I M P O S S I B L E W I T H L U V O I R

M I S S I O N I M P O S S I B L E # 1• imaging the CGM at z<2 to unravel galaxy fueling and feedback

Corlies & Schiminovich (2016)

10 meter telescope

4 meter telescope

40 hours

15 minutes

500 hours

3 hours

• Star formation histories and the IMF

M I S S I O N I M P O S S I B L E # 2

8-12 meter aperture reaches 1-3 giant

ellipticals

M I S S I O N I M P O S S I B L E # 3Probe star formation and dark matter in the darkest halos - hundreds of faint MW satellites to be discovered by LSST.

M I S S I O N I M P O S S I B L E # 3Probe star formation and dark matter in the darkest halos - hundreds of faint MW satellites to be discovered by LSST.

• LSST will reach ~100% “completeness” for the faintest dwarfs out to 400 kpc.

M I S S I O N I M P O S S I B L E # 3Probe star formation and dark matter in the darkest halos - hundreds of faint MW satellites to be discovered by LSST.

• LSST will reach ~100% “completeness” for the faintest dwarfs out to 400 kpc.

• Measuring their IMF requires reaching 3 mag below main sequence TO.

M I S S I O N I M P O S S I B L E # 3Probe star formation and dark matter in the darkest halos - hundreds of faint MW satellites to be discovered by LSST.

• LSST will reach ~100% “completeness” for the faintest dwarfs out to 400 kpc.

• Measuring their IMF requires reaching 3 mag below main sequence TO.

• 12 m LUVOIR can do this at 500 kpc

M I S S I O N I M P O S S I B L E # 3Probe star formation and dark matter in the darkest halos - hundreds of faint MW satellites to be discovered by LSST.

• LSST will reach ~100% “completeness” for the faintest dwarfs out to 400 kpc.

• Measuring their IMF requires reaching 3 mag below main sequence TO.

• 12 m LUVOIR can do this at 500 kpc

• 4 m reaches ~200 kpc, but this is 50x less volume and still inside Rvir.

Distance Speed Example Goal

10 pc (nearest stars)

10 cm s-1 0.2 mph planets

100 pc (nearest SF

regions)

100 cm s-1 2.2 mph

planets in disks

10 kpc (entire MW

disk)

0.1 km s-1 223 mph

dissipation of star clusters

100 kpc (MW halo)

1 km s-1 2200 mph

DM dynamics in dwarf sats.

1 Mpc (Local Group)

100 km s-13D motions of

all LG galaxies

10 Mpc (Galactic

Neighborhood)100 km s-1 cluster

dynamics

M I S S I O N I M P O S S I B L E # 3Probe dark matter in the darkest halos - hundreds of

faint MW satellites to be discovered by LSST.

Velocity dispersions are 1-5 km/s.Measure DM potential in most DM-dominated and isolated galaxies.

What is the DM?

T H E S E W I L L O N LY G E T B E T T E R . L U V O I R C A N E C L I P S E T H E M , A N D D E M A N D T H E I R S U C C E S S O R S

T H E L U V O I R S T D T M AY N O T K N O W W H AT T H E M O S T I M P O R TA N T S C I E N C E O F 2 0 3 5 I S

H I S T O R I C A L P O I N T 3

T H E L U V O I R S T D T M AY N O T K N O W W H AT T H E M O S T I M P O R TA N T S C I E N C E O F 2 0 3 5 I S

H I S T O R I C A L P O I N T 3

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Scientific Uses of the Large Space Telescope http://www.nap.edu/catalog/12399.html

T W O T H O U G H T S

T W O T H O U G H T S

• 1) We don’t know the future

T W O T H O U G H T S

• 1) We don’t know the future

• 2) We can’t read minds

T W O T H O U G H T S

• 1) We don’t know the future

• 2) We can’t read minds

We should only consider a LUVOIR that can also do as of yet unknown science. Be flexible and powerful.

T W O T H O U G H T S

• 1) We don’t know the future

• 2) We can’t read minds

We should only consider a LUVOIR that can also do as of yet unknown science. Be flexible and powerful.

We must make a serious effort to reach out and listen to the full community, and give them the tools to think big.

W E H AV E A LW AY S H A D L A R G E R T E L E S C O P E S O N T H E G R O U N D . T H AT ’ S O K

H I S T O R I C A L P O I N T 4

W E H AV E A LW AY S H A D L A R G E R T E L E S C O P E S O N T H E G R O U N D . T H AT ’ S O K

H I S T O R I C A L P O I N T 4

FIRST DEPLOYMENT

T H E R E I S U N P R E C E D E N T E D J O I N T D I S C O V E R Y S PA C E

• LSST

• TMT/EELT/GMT

• SKA

• ALMA

• Many others

Let’s use both, each at what it is best for

20 25 30 35AB Magnitude

1 sec

10 sec

1 min

10 min

1 hr

10 hr

100 hr

Wed Oct 29 11:14:44 2014elt.eps

At 1.5 μm (H), a diffraction-limited 30m will reach the same spatial resolution as a space-based 10m at 0.5 μm.

Sky backgrounds prevent ground-based ELTs from applying their spatial resolution at the faintest desirable limits.

Where we do not know what the

Universe looks like.

Hubble UDF

HDST10

ELT30

At AB~30, the ELT requires a full night, or about 5-10 times longer

to achieve same S/N.*

At AB~32, LUVOIR is at the ~10 hour level while ELT observations

become prohibitive.

VJ

VJ

Time to S/N = 10

ELTs excel at: -high res imaging on bright sources

-IR spectroscopy in atmospheric transmission windows

- high resolution optical spectroscopy

LUVOIR excels at: - deep/wide imaging at all wavelengths - low-res/2D spectra at all wavelengths - astrometry, high contrast (stable PSF)

- anything requiring the UV

They complement each other for: - LUVOIR detection in imaging, ELT spectroscopy for stars and galaxies - multiphase gas diagnostics at all z

Sun at 1 Mpc

Sun at 10 Mpc

LMC at z = 6

*E-ELT ETC

2 mag deeper @ 100 hr!

E M E R G I N G I N S T R U M E N T T H E M E S

• UVOIR imaging with as wide a FOV as possible

• Low (R~100) to moderate (R~5,000) UVOIR MOS or IFU

• High (R>25,000) point source UVO spectrograph

• FUV spectroscopic capability (Lyman edge)

A L S O W O R T H C O N S I D E R I N G

• Polarimetry

• Fast timing

• Ultra-precise astrometry

• Laser comb

• Energy resolving detectors

W H AT C O U L D W E D O I F W E H A D ?

• µ-arcsecond astrometry

• S/N 10,000 at R=100,000

• Photon counting at extremely high rates

• R=1,000,000 spectroscopy

S U M M A R Y

S U M M A R Y

• We have a huge parameter space in COR science with LUVOIR, some of it not yet known

S U M M A R Y

• We have a huge parameter space in COR science with LUVOIR, some of it not yet known

• Much of it is revolutionary, and requires a revolution

S U M M A R Y

• We have a huge parameter space in COR science with LUVOIR, some of it not yet known

• Much of it is revolutionary, and requires a revolution

• We have a lot of work to do, and we should not go it alone

S U M M A R Y

• We have a huge parameter space in COR science with LUVOIR, some of it not yet known

• Much of it is revolutionary, and requires a revolution

• We have a lot of work to do, and we should not go it alone

• It’s time to build the tools, make the plots, and write the story

– W A LT D I S N E Y

“It’s kind of fun to do the impossible”