Trends of Infocomm James Seng jseng@pobox.org.sg

Trends of Infocomm

James Seng

jseng@pobox.org.sg

Disclaimer

Any ideas, concepts and opinions expressed here are my own and may not

reflect the opinions of Infocomm Development Authority and/or any organizations I am affiliated with.

Revolutions

1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

1770s Steam Engine

2050

1820s Railway and Telegraph

1940s Computer

1960s ARPANet

1850s Railway Boom

2100

Ind

ust

ry

Info

rmat

ion 1990s Internet Boom

Burst

Burst

Internet boom and burst

Burst

Internet growth

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

140000000

160000000

180000000

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001

Year

Hosts

Burst??

Source: http://www.isc.org/ds/host-count-history.html

Internet growth

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

Population (in millions)

Burst??

Source: http://www.nua.ie/surveys/how_many_online/index.html

Telecomm crisis?

Source: http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=2098913

Where do we go from here?

1860s Now

Now 2100

Generation Revolution

Next Generation (N-Gen) Born after 80s

“Nintendo Generation”

First generation to grew up with digital and infocomm technology

Use technologies in ways we cannot envision

The N-Gen…

is unimpressed with technology

not afraid of technology

the authority in technology

uses technology with ease

Convergence

IP device

Convergence or Collision?

Philosophy:Smart Network,Dumb Device

Philosophy:Dumb Network,Smart Device

Bang

AT&T is investing 3B USD to move from circuit-switch network to an IP packet. 1,000TB of traffic on the IP network compared with the equivalent of 450TB a day moving on the voice switches.

Internet Boom and Burst

Many companies crashed and burned.

Too much bandwidthCheap bandwidth

It is from the ashes of the burned Phoenix that a phoenix is reborn.

Learn from the N-Gen

Future

Trends: Gartner Hype Chart

VisibilityPeak of inflated expectations

Trough of disillusionment

Slope of enlightenment

Plateau of productivity

Emerging trends

Trend 1: Peer-to-Peer

Problem or opportunity?

Trend 2: IP Telephony

2.7M IP Telephony users in Japan as of 2002

“All the calls you want to make for only US$9.99 a month!” from ITU Newsblog

Technology Standards: SIP, ENUM

“1,736,247 download since 2th Oct launch”

Trend 3: Blog

Source: Joichi Ito http://joi.ito.com/

Trend 3: Blog

Technology Standards: Semantic Web (RDF)

The Growing Blogsphere

  Hosted Blogs Created Growth Rate

2000 135,731 NA

2001 958,182 606%

2002 2,163,636 126%

2003 5,007,272 131%

2004 (est) 10,283,687 105%

Source: Perseus Development Corp.

Crisis of the Society

Real world to Cyber worldRape -> IRC sex offendersRobbery -> Bank hackingJunk Mail -> Email Spam

Culture Identity

Conclusion

This is only the beginning!We live in very interesting time…