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Disclaimer
Any ideas, concepts and opinions expressed here are my own and may not
reflect the opinions of Infocomm Development Authority and/or any organizations I am affiliated with.
Revolutions
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
1770s Steam Engine
2050
1820s Railway and Telegraph
1940s Computer
1960s ARPANet
1850s Railway Boom
2100
Ind
ust
ry
Info
rmat
ion 1990s Internet Boom
Burst
Burst
Internet boom and burst
Burst
Internet growth
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
160000000
180000000
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
Year
Hosts
Burst??
Source: http://www.isc.org/ds/host-count-history.html
Internet growth
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Year
Population (in millions)
Burst??
Source: http://www.nua.ie/surveys/how_many_online/index.html
Telecomm crisis?
Source: http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=2098913
Where do we go from here?
1860s Now
Now 2100
Generation Revolution
Next Generation (N-Gen) Born after 80s
“Nintendo Generation”
First generation to grew up with digital and infocomm technology
Use technologies in ways we cannot envision
The N-Gen…
is unimpressed with technology
not afraid of technology
the authority in technology
uses technology with ease
Convergence
IP device
Convergence or Collision?
Philosophy:Smart Network,Dumb Device
Philosophy:Dumb Network,Smart Device
Bang
AT&T is investing 3B USD to move from circuit-switch network to an IP packet. 1,000TB of traffic on the IP network compared with the equivalent of 450TB a day moving on the voice switches.
Internet Boom and Burst
Many companies crashed and burned.
Too much bandwidthCheap bandwidth
It is from the ashes of the burned Phoenix that a phoenix is reborn.
Learn from the N-Gen
Future
Trends: Gartner Hype Chart
VisibilityPeak of inflated expectations
Trough of disillusionment
Slope of enlightenment
Plateau of productivity
Emerging trends
Trend 1: Peer-to-Peer
Problem or opportunity?
Trend 2: IP Telephony
2.7M IP Telephony users in Japan as of 2002
“All the calls you want to make for only US$9.99 a month!” from ITU Newsblog
Technology Standards: SIP, ENUM
“1,736,247 download since 2th Oct launch”
Trend 3: Blog
Source: Joichi Ito http://joi.ito.com/
Trend 3: Blog
Technology Standards: Semantic Web (RDF)
The Growing Blogsphere
Hosted Blogs Created Growth Rate
2000 135,731 NA
2001 958,182 606%
2002 2,163,636 126%
2003 5,007,272 131%
2004 (est) 10,283,687 105%
Source: Perseus Development Corp.
Crisis of the Society
Real world to Cyber worldRape -> IRC sex offendersRobbery -> Bank hackingJunk Mail -> Email Spam
Culture Identity
Conclusion
This is only the beginning!We live in very interesting time…
