View
218
Download
0
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
Outline of the presentation
• Sustainability transitions
• Lines of current research:
- the optimal diversity of energy technologies - diversity of energy sources - modelling the rebound effect
• Conclusions
Core Questions of Sustainability Science
How the dynamic interactions between nature and society can be modeled?
What are long-term trends in environment and development reshaping nature-society interactions?
What systems of incentive structures can most effective guide society toward sustainability?
Kates et al., (2001) Science
Transition Network
Knowledge Network for System Innovations and Transitions
Sustainability Transition Research Network
Environmental Innovations andSocietal Transitions
Transitions
Transitions are “… a gradual continuous process of societal changes in which society (or a complex subsystem of it) structurally changes its character..”
They are characterized by persistent problems deeply rooted in current practices and prevailing structures.
Rotmans et al. (2000)
Evolutionary modeling of sustainability transitions
Methods Concepts
- Agent-based modeling
- Evolutionary game theory
- Evolutionary algorithms
- Dynamic systems
- Innovation-Selection- Diversity
- Bounded rationality
- Path dependence
- Group selection
- CoevolutionSafarzynska, (2010)
Open questions for modeling
Safarzynska, Frenken, van den Bergh (2012) Research Policy
Multi-level Multi-phase Coevolution Learning
General Question
How to support sustainability transitions?
Guiding by understanding
How to analyze the second-order effects of policies?
By designing models to unravel mechanisms underlying the system development
Policies
The optimal allocation of investments between different energy technologies
Energy efficiency
Energy taxes
Nuclear and renewable obligations
An innovation-selection model
j kj jtit
ekjtetjiitiet xxrxqfxx
r
q
f
x
ekj
t
ji
it
it
shares of investments
technology fitness
mutation
the average fitness
=1 if technologies can be recombined
recombination
Three-technology context
ttttttttttt
ttttttttttt
ttttttttttt
xxrxfxfxfxx
xxxrfxfxfxx
xxrxfxfxfxx
3213221133
2213321122
1213322111
5.05.0)1(
)1(5.05.0)1(
5.05.0)1(
Selection environments
itit caf Fitness
tit cc 0Constant unit costs
dbt
cc t
it 0Costs decreasing
steadily over time
i
t
ittit dtxcc )(0
0Costs decreasing along learning curves
Investment in recombinant innovations
Safarzynska, van den Bergh (2011) Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
Recombination alone Recombination and mutation
X3X3
X1X1
X1
The average cost of energy technologies
Safarzynska and van den Bergh (2013) Journal of Evolutionary Economics
Final remarks
Sufficient investments in recombinant innovations ensure that a new technology emerge
But too much investments in recombinant innovations can result in a lock in to a new technology, which limits possibility for future recombinant innovations
Diversity in energy systems
Are changes in diversity of energy sources indicative of structural transformations?
How energy diversity changes over the course of economic development?
Diversity of energy sources
)//()/( teteF jiijij
i
iji
i
ij
ee
t
e consumption of energy source j in country i
total energy consumption in country i
i
ittand
1ijG 0ijG1ijF 1ijFif if
Diversity of energy sources
Energy diversity:
The similarity measure between countries i and k:
j iji GDv
011011
11
HHH
HJ ik
Final remarks
Countries grow by diversifying energy sources
Energy diversity is indicative of structural changes
Modeling the rebound effect in two manufacturing industries
Polices aimed at reducing energy use are often ineffective
Improvements in energy efficiency do not bring a proportional reduction in energy use (Jevon’s paradox)
Problems
Demand and supply aspects of the rebound effect studies separately
A structural change towards high quality fuels is often ignored
Aggregate data does not reveal specific mechanisms behind the rebound effect
Coevolution of demand and supply and electricity use
Heterogeneous power plants
Boundedly rational firms
Two classes of consumer
Heterogeneous plants
Electricity market is composed of 11 heterogeneous power plants (gas, coal and nuclear)
Pricing and output decisions are modeled with the Cournot game.
Heterogeneous plants
Cobb-Douglass production functions:
Investments in a new power plant are based on the discounted value of investments:
Fj
Fit
Lj
Lit
Kj
Kitiiiaq itit
)]8760)ˆ)8760(([( ij
tT
ttj
rtijjtij
rtij kIekmkpeEV
sj
sj
s
Producers of final products
5 firms offer differentiated product
Two types of innovation processes: incremental improvements in product design and the search for radical innovation
Electricity as an input
Electricity is an input in production:
Changes in energy efficiency:
τt= τt-1(1+στ)
qqjtj
qjtjtjt eakkay
1
)))(1()((
Formal model – poor and rich consumers
2 classes of consumers: 11 rich and 89 poor
Consumers rank products according to utility:
jtjt
jtjt
lp
nxi
i
5.0
where x is product quality p is price n is the network effect l captures the snob effect
Network effects through
Market shares
stj – the market share of technology j
A technical characteristics
1 tjtjt xxn
j
jtjtjt ssn /
Probability of the rebound effect
Market share Technical Characteristics
Network elasticity +Snob elasticity
Substitution elasticity
+ +
Share of capital in production
+
Annual change in electricity efficiency
- -
Policies
a tax on electricity ‘nuclear obligations’ to produce ten percent of
electricity from nuclear energy.
Nuclear obligations
Nuclear obligations increased significantly the share of electricity produced with nuclear energy
It increases the share of nuclear energy in electricity production from 4% to 24%
Final remarks
Clustering of consumer choices makes the rebound effect more likely to occur (the network effect)
The effectiveness of policies depends on the network effect
Conclusions
Managing transitions to sustainability requires understanding micro-mechanisms that underlie system development
Co-authors
Jereon van den Bergh (ICREA, Barcelona, Spain)
Keon Frenken (Eindhoven University, Netherlands)
Roy Brouwer (VU, Netherlands) Marjan Hofkes (VU, Netherlands)
Elefhteria Vasileiadou (VU, Netherlands)
Recommended