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Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy Supervisors: Alan Brent Imke de Kock Josephine Musango Louwrence Erasmus

Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

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Page 1: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector

Nicole du Plooy

Supervisors: Alan BrentImke de KockJosephine MusangoLouwrence Erasmus

Page 2: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy
Page 3: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

The Research Process

Problem Definition Literature Survey System Dynamics Modelling Scenario Development

Understand the South African Context and

define theResearch Question

Conduct a Literature Search on Scientific

Database, attend Lectures and Search

Campus Library

Understand Real Life Context and determine

Model Boundaries, Develop Causal Loop

Diagram and Construct Dynamic Model

Perform Various Scenario Interventions

and Test Possible Futures

Page 4: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

The Research Process

Problem Definition Literature Survey System Dynamics Modelling Scenario Development

Understand the South African Context and

define theResearch Question

Conduct a Literature Search on Scientific

Database, attend Lectures and Search

Campus Library

Understand Real Life Context and determine

Model Boundaries, Develop Causal Loop

Diagram and Construct Dynamic Model

Perform Various Scenario Interventions

and Test Possible Futures

Page 5: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

South Africa’s Key Policies

Is South Africa’s Fostering a Sustainable Energy Transition?

Page 6: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

The Research Process

Problem Definition Literature Survey System Dynamics Modelling Scenario Development

Understand the South African Context and

define theResearch Question

Conduct a Literature Search, Define a Set of Criteria for Electricity

Sector’s SET

Understand Real Life Context and determine

Model Boundaries, Develop Causal Loop

Diagram and Construct Dynamic Model

Perform Various Scenario Interventions

and Test Possible Futures

Page 7: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

Literature Survey

Energy transitions research: Insights and cautionary tales,

Grubler (2012)

Socio-Technical Perspective

Insight 1: The importance of energy end-use in driving energy transitions

Insight 2: Rates of change are slow, but not always

Insight 3: There are distinct patterns in the successful scaling up of technology systems

Energy and the Economy: Five Propositions, Heun (2016)

1. Energy and the Economy are Linked

2. The Fundamentals of Energy Supply/Demand and Prices are different now

3. Society uses the easily accessible resources first

4. They Dynamics of Energy and the Economy Nexus are an Interdisciplinary Grand Challenge

5. Unstable Economies are deterrent for sustainable transition investment

A Framework for defining Sustainable Energy Transitions:

Principles, Dynamics and Implications, Csala and Sgouridis

(2014)

1. Rate of Emissions < Ecosystems Carrying Capacity

2. Renewable Energy Generation < Ecosystems Carrying Capacity

3. Energy Demands are Adequately Satisfied

4. Sufficient Investment in Renewable Energy Before Fossil Fuel Depletion

5. Future Consumption is coupled to Availability of Energy in the Future

• Economic competitiveness• Supply Security and Generation• Innovation and Technology• Politics and Public Acceptance

• Energy Efficiency• Economic Competitiveness• Supply Security and Generation

• Energy Efficiency• CO2 Emission Reduction• Economic Competitiveness• Supply Security and Generation

Page 8: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

The Future of Energy Use, O’Keefe et al. (2010)

Bridging the Energy Gap through Technology Transfer

Energy Poverty should be approached via a bottom up approach

Suggests Features for Sustainable Energy Systems : Appropriate, Exploits Indigenous Renewable Energy Resources, Capacity Enhancing, Adaptable, Easy to Repair and Maintain, Upgradeable

A participatory multi-criteria approach for power generation

and transmission planning, Bertschand Fichtner (2015)

Socio-political Perspective

Involvement of end consumers which may become producers in the future.

Suggests a Multi-Criteria Approach which considers:

Public Acceptance

Economic Competitiveness

Environmental Sustainability

Security of Supply

Energy, Economic Growth and Environmental Sustainability: Five

Propositions, Sorrell (2010)

1. Energy Efficiency has rebound effects on energy consumption and economic growth

2. Energy has improved productivity and economic growth

3. Sustainability requires both improved efficiency and a principle of ―sufficiency.

4. Sustainability cannot be achieved with increased economic growth in rich countries

5. A zero-growth economy is incompatible with a fractional reserve banking system.

• Supply Security and Generation• Resilience• Innovation and Technology

• CO2 Emission Reduction• Economic Competitiveness• Supply Security and Generation• Politics and Public Acceptance

• Energy Efficiency• Economic Competitiveness

Literature Survey

Page 9: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

Measures of Success for South Africa’s Electricity Sector SET

1 Energy Efficiency

2 Emission Reduction

3 Economic Competitiveness

4 Supply Security and Generation

5 Resilience

6 Innovation and Technology

7 Politics and Public Acceptance

Page 10: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

The Research Process

Problem Definition Literature Survey System Dynamics Modelling Scenario Development

Understand the South African Context and

define theResearch Question

Conduct a Literature Search on Scientific

Database, attend Lectures and Search

Campus Library

Understand Real Life Context and determine

Model Boundaries, Develop Causal Loop

Diagram and Construct Dynamic Model

Perform Various Scenario Interventions

and Test Possible Futures

Page 11: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

What is System Dynamics?The Big Picture

System Dynamics Modelling is often used to generate possible futures and predict a system’slikely evolution under varying circumstances; with the aim of initiating discussions betweenvarying audiences from technical and non-technical backgrounds.

PlannedBio-FuelCapacity

Bio-FuelCapacity Under

Construction

Bio-FuelOperatingCapacity

DecommissionedBio-FuelCapacityBio-Fuel Project

InitialisationBio-Fuel Construction

InitializationBio-Fuel PlantCommissioning

Bio-Fuel CapacityDecommissioning

Bio-FuelDegradation

Bio-FuelDegradation Factor

Average Bio-FuelPlant Life

Future Bio-FuelCapacity

Current Bio-FuelCapacity

Total Bio-FuelCapacity

Average Bio-FuelProject Planning Delay

Average Bio-Fuel PlantConstruction DelayAverage Bio-Fuel

Project Start Delay

Bio-Fuel ProjectLead Time

Initial PlannedBio-Fuel Capacity

Initial Bio-Fuel Capacityunder Construction

Inital Bio-FuelOperating Capacity

Initial Bio-FuelDecommissioned

Bio-Fuel ScenarioChoice

Bio-Fuel IRP

Bio-Fuel CapacityFactor

<Time>

Total ElectricityGenerated from

Bio-Fuel <MW to MWhConversion>

Scenario Bio-Fuel

<Required NewBio-Fuel>

<SWITCH>

ElectricityDemand

Demand/SupplyGap

+

ElectricityImports

ElectricityExports

+

Available GenerationCapacity

Capacity Factor

-Generation CapacityUnder Construction

Required GenerationCapacity

+

+

B1ElectricityGeneration

DecommissioningRate

+

-

B2Capacity

Retirement

Electricity SectorCO2 Emissions

Environmental C02Carrying Capacity

Pressure from Actorsfor Sustainability

-

-

Sustainable ElectricityGeneration Technology

Availibilty +

Learning Rates

+

R1EmmissionReduction

GDP

+

ElectricityPrice

Population

+-

Electricity SectorEmployment

+ +

Electricty SectorWater Usage

WaterAvailablity

-

-

R2 WaterUsage

Unemployment- -

WeakGovernance

-

Poor IndustryPerformance

-

R3 JobCreation

Likelihood ofLoadshedding Events

Actual Investment intoPlanned Generation

Mix

++

+Total Available

Electricity Capacity +

-

+

Actual ElectricityConsumption

-+

+

+

+

Total Electricity Generated by System900 M

675 M

450 M

225 M

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

h*M

W

Total Electricity Generated by System : majority fossil fuels

Total Electricity Sector Employment200 M

167.5 M

135 M

102.5 M

70 M2010 2022 2034 2046

Time (Year)

Job

Total Electricity Sector Employment : majority fossil fuels

Total

Total Fresh

Demand Supply Gap Ratio.9

.8

.7

.6

.52010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

Dm

nl

Demand Supply Gap Ratio : majority fossil fuels

Electricity to be Added to Mix100,000

75,000

50,000

25,000

02010 2022 2034 2046

Time (Year)

h*G

W/Y

ear

Electricity to be Added to Mix : majority fossil fuels

Page 12: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

System Dynamics – Causal Loop Diagram

ElectricityDemand

Demand/SupplyGap

+

ElectricityImports

ElectricityExports

+

Available GenerationCapacity

Capacity Factor

-Generation CapacityUnder Construction

Required GenerationCapacity

+

+

B1ElectricityGeneration

DecommissioningRate

+

-

B2Capacity

Retirement

Electricity SectorCO2 Emissions

Environmental C02Carrying Capacity

Pressure from Actorsfor Sustainability

-

-

Sustainable ElectricityGeneration Technology

Availibilty +

Learning Rates

+

R1EmmissionReduction

GDP

+

ElectricityPrice

Population

+-

Electricity SectorEmployment

+ +

Electricty SectorWater Usage

WaterAvailablity

-

-

R2 WaterUsage

Unemployment- -

WeakGovernance

-

Poor IndustryPerformance

-

R3 JobCreation

Likelihood ofLoadshedding Events

Actual Investment intoPlanned Generation

Mix

++

+Total Available

Electricity Capacity +

-

+

Actual ElectricityConsumption

-+

+

+

+

Page 13: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

How does it work?

<Total ElectricityGenerated from

Bio-Fuel>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Coal>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Gas>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Hydro>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Nuclear>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from SolarPV>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Wind>

Total ElectricityGenerated by System

NET ElectricityGeneration

Transmission andDistribution Loss Factor

<South AfricanElectricity Demand>

MWh to GWhconversion

NET ImportedElectricity

NET ElectricitySupply

Electricity Exports

NET ElectricityDemand

SWITCH

Total ElectricityGeneration Blackouts

Year Step Demand SupplyGap Ratio

Demand Supply GapEffect Table

Effect of Demand SupplyGap on Required Electricity

Required NewElectricity

Electricity to beAdded to Mix

Blackouts due toRenewable Unavailability

Demand SupplyGap

<Electricity Lost due toSolar PV Downtime>

Sum of Blackouts

<Year Step>

<Electricity Lost due toSolar CSP Downtime>

<Electricity Lost due toWind Downtime>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Solar

CSP>

Driver: Satisfy Demand by adding New Capacity

Page 14: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

How does it work?

<Total ElectricityGenerated from

Bio-Fuel>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Coal>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Gas>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Hydro>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Nuclear>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from SolarPV>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Wind>

Total ElectricityGenerated by System

NET ElectricityGeneration

Transmission andDistribution Loss Factor

<South AfricanElectricity Demand>

MWh to GWhconversion

NET ImportedElectricity

NET ElectricitySupply

Electricity Exports

NET ElectricityDemand

SWITCH

Total ElectricityGeneration Blackouts

Year Step Demand SupplyGap Ratio

Demand Supply GapEffect Table

Effect of Demand SupplyGap on Required Electricity

Required NewElectricity

Electricity to beAdded to Mix

Blackouts due toRenewable Unavailability

Demand SupplyGap

<Electricity Lost due toSolar PV Downtime>

Sum of Blackouts

<Year Step>

<Electricity Lost due toSolar CSP Downtime>

<Electricity Lost due toWind Downtime>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Solar

CSP>

New Coal SupplyFraction

New Hydro SupplyFraction

New Gas SupplyFraction

New NuclearSupply Fraction

New Wind SupplyFraction

New Solar PVSupply Fraction

Demand for NewHydro

Demand for NewGas

Demand for NewNuclear

Demand for NewWind

Demand for NewSolar PV

Demand for NewBio-Fuel

Demand for NewCoal

Required NewSolar PV

Required NewWind

Required NewNuclear

Required NewGas

Required NewHydroRequired New

Coal

Required NewBio-Fuel

<MW to MWhConversion>

<MW to MWhConversion>

<MW to MWhConversion>

<MW to MWhConversion>

<Coal CapacityFactor>

<Hydro CapacityFactor> <Bio-Fuel Capacity

Factor>

<Solar PVCapacityFactor>

<Wind CapacityFactor>

<Nuclear CapacityFactor><Gas Capacity

Factor>

Supply FractionTotal CHECK

New Bio-FuelSupply Fraction

<Electricity to beAdded to Mix>

Demand for NewSolar CSP

Required NewSolar CSP

New Solar CSPSupply Fraction

<Solar CSPCapacity Factor>

Input: Supply Fraction

Driver: Satisfy Demand by adding New Capacity

Page 15: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

How does it work?

<Total ElectricityGenerated from

Bio-Fuel>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Coal>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Gas>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Hydro>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Nuclear>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from SolarPV>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Wind>

Total ElectricityGenerated by System

NET ElectricityGeneration

Transmission andDistribution Loss Factor

<South AfricanElectricity Demand>

MWh to GWhconversion

NET ImportedElectricity

NET ElectricitySupply

Electricity Exports

NET ElectricityDemand

SWITCH

Total ElectricityGeneration Blackouts

Year Step Demand SupplyGap Ratio

Demand Supply GapEffect Table

Effect of Demand SupplyGap on Required Electricity

Required NewElectricity

Electricity to beAdded to Mix

Blackouts due toRenewable Unavailability

Demand SupplyGap

<Electricity Lost due toSolar PV Downtime>

Sum of Blackouts

<Year Step>

<Electricity Lost due toSolar CSP Downtime>

<Electricity Lost due toWind Downtime>

<Total ElectricityGenerated from Solar

CSP>

New Coal SupplyFraction

New Hydro SupplyFraction

New Gas SupplyFraction

New NuclearSupply Fraction

New Wind SupplyFraction

New Solar PVSupply Fraction

Demand for NewHydro

Demand for NewGas

Demand for NewNuclear

Demand for NewWind

Demand for NewSolar PV

Demand for NewBio-Fuel

Demand for NewCoal

Required NewSolar PV

Required NewWind

Required NewNuclear

Required NewGas

Required NewHydroRequired New

Coal

Required NewBio-Fuel

<MW to MWhConversion>

<MW to MWhConversion>

<MW to MWhConversion>

<MW to MWhConversion>

<Coal CapacityFactor>

<Hydro CapacityFactor> <Bio-Fuel Capacity

Factor>

<Solar PVCapacityFactor>

<Wind CapacityFactor>

<Nuclear CapacityFactor><Gas Capacity

Factor>

Supply FractionTotal CHECK

New Bio-FuelSupply Fraction

<Electricity to beAdded to Mix>

Demand for NewSolar CSP

Required NewSolar CSP

New Solar CSPSupply Fraction

<Solar CSPCapacity Factor>

Input: Supply Fraction

Driver: Satisfy Demand by adding New Capacity

Output: Determine the impact on employment, water usage, land usage, cost and emissions…

Sustainable?

Page 16: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

System Dynamics – Model OutputsAddressed Criteria Preliminary Model Outputs

CO2 Emission Reduction Emissions for CO2, NOx, SOx (kg/MWh)

Economic Competitiveness Unserved Energy (R/MWh)

Levelised Cost of Electricity (R/MWh)

Supply Security and Generation Demand Supply Ratio:

<1= Adequate Supply

>1 = Inadequate Supply

Blackouts (MWh/Year)

Resilience Operations and Maintenance Jobs (Jobs/Year)

Fuel Supply Jobs (Jobs/Year)

Manufacturing Jobs (Jobs/Year)

Construction Jobs (Jobs/Year)

Water Usage (L/MWh)

Land Usage (km2/MWh)

Politics and Public Acceptance Graphical output of IRP capacity specifications

Page 17: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

The Process

Problem Definition Literature Survey System Dynamics Modelling Scenario Development

Understand the South African Context and

define theResearch Question

Conduct a Literature Search on Scientific

Database, attend Lectures and Search

Campus Library

Understand Real Life Context and determine

Model Boundaries, Develop Causal Loop

Diagram and Construct Dynamic Model

Perform Various Scenario Interventions

and Test Possible Futures

Page 18: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

Scenario Breakdown

Scen

ario

Nam

e

Scen

ario

Cond

ition

s

Electricity Mix Percentage Split (%)

Technology Type

Coal

Nuc

lear

Gas

Win

d

Sola

rPV

Sola

rCSP

Hydr

o

Biof

uel

Business as UsualInput from IRP

2016 Input as specified in IRP2016 and inputted via lookup tables

Bulk Fossil Fuels 70:30 55 10 5 10 7 3 3 7

All New Fossil Fuels 100:0 60 30 10 0 0 0 0 0

Half and Half (50/50) 50:50 25 20 5 20 12 8 5 5

Bulk Renewables 30:70 15 10 5 30 20 10 5 5

All New Renewables 0:100 0 0 0 45 30 15 5 5

Page 19: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

Next Step: Results Analysis

Total Electricity Generated by System1 B

500 M

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

MW

*h

Total Electricity Generated by System : half and half finalTotal Electricity Generated by System : BAU FinalTotal Electricity Generated by System : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal Electricity Generated by System : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal Electricity Generated by System : All New Fossil FuelsTotal Electricity Generated by System : All New Renewables

Total Electricity Sector Employment3 M

1.5 M

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

Job

Total Electricity Sector Employment : half and half finalTotal Electricity Sector Employment : BAU FinalTotal Electricity Sector Employment : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal Electricity Sector Employment : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal Electricity Sector Employment : All New Fossil FuelsTotal Electricity Sector Employment : All New Renewables

Total CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation600 B

300 B

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

kg

Total CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation : half and half finalTotal CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation : BAU FinalTotal CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation : All New Fossil FuelsTotal CO2 Emissions from Electricity Generation : All New Renewables

Total Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation200 B

100 B

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

L

Total Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation : half and half finalTotal Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation : BAU FinalTotal Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation : All New Fossil FuelsTotal Fresh Water used by Electricity Sector for Generation : All New Renewables

Total NOx Emissions400 M

200 M

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

kg

Total NOx Emissions : half and half finalTotal NOx Emissions : BAU FinalTotal NOx Emissions : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal NOx Emissions : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal NOx Emissions : All New Fossil FuelsTotal NOx Emissions : All New Renewables

Total SOx Emissions300 M

150 M

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

kg

Total SOx Emissions : half and half finalTotal SOx Emissions : BAU FinalTotal SOx Emissions : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal SOx Emissions : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal SOx Emissions : All New Fossil FuelsTotal SOx Emissions : All New Renewables

South African Electricity Demand700,000

350,000

02010 2022 2034 2046

Time (Year)

h*G

W

South African Electricity Demand : half and half finalSouth African Electricity Demand : BAU FinalSouth African Electricity Demand : Bulk Renewables FinalSouth African Electricity Demand : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalSouth African Electricity Demand : All New Fossil FuelsSouth African Electricity Demand : All New Renewables

Total Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad40 B

20 B

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

Job

Total Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad : half and half finalTotal Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad : BAU FinalTotal Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad : All New Fossil FuelsTotal Fuel Supply Jobs from South African Electricity Generation local and abroad : All New Renewables

Demand Supply Gap Ratio3

1.5

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

Dm

nl

Demand Supply Gap Ratio : half and half finalDemand Supply Gap Ratio : BAU FinalDemand Supply Gap Ratio : Bulk Renewables FinalDemand Supply Gap Ratio : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalDemand Supply Gap Ratio : All New Fossil FuelsDemand Supply Gap Ratio : All New Renewables

Electricity to be Added to Mix200,000

100,000

02010 2022 2034 2046

Time (Year)

h*G

W/Y

ear

Electricity to be Added to Mix : half and half finalElectricity to be Added to Mix : BAU FinalElectricity to be Added to Mix : Bulk Renewables FinalElectricity to be Added to Mix : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalElectricity to be Added to Mix : All New Fossil FuelsElectricity to be Added to Mix : All New Renewables

Total Land Area used for Electricity Sector30

15

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

km2

Total Land Area used for Electricity Sector : half and half finalTotal Land Area used for Electricity Sector : BAU FinalTotal Land Area used for Electricity Sector : Bulk Renewables FinalTotal Land Area used for Electricity Sector : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalTotal Land Area used for Electricity Sector : All New Fossil FuelsTotal Land Area used for Electricity Sector : All New Renewables

Land Area for Fossil Fuel.5

.2485

-.0032010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

km2

Land Area for Fossil Fuel : half and half finalLand Area for Fossil Fuel : BAU FinalLand Area for Fossil Fuel : Bulk Renewables FinalLand Area for Fossil Fuel : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalLand Area for Fossil Fuel : All New Fossil FuelsLand Area for Fossil Fuel : All New Renewables

Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector3.0e-5

1.5e-5

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

Dm

nl

"Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector" : half and half final"Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector" : BAU Final"Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector" : Bulk Renewables Final"Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector" : Bulk Fossil Fuels Final"Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector" : All New Fossil Fuels"Percentage of South African Water Run-off Used by Sector" : All New Renewables

Land Area for Renewables30

15

02010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Time (Year)

km2

Land Area for Renewables : half and half finalLand Area for Renewables : BAU FinalLand Area for Renewables : Bulk Renewables FinalLand Area for Renewables : Bulk Fossil Fuels FinalLand Area for Renewables : All New Fossil FuelsLand Area for Renewables : All New Renewables

The insights gained from the model could possibly be used to develop and implementmechanisms to collectively transform the electricity sector to an SET, as well as stimulate thenecessary discussions with stakeholders in various roles in government and private sector, inorder to facilitate the changes necessary to drive the transition and meet the set of criteria.

Page 20: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

THANK YOU

Page 21: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

Stock and Flow Diagram: Electricity Demand

Initial ElectricityDemand

Effect of Population onSouth Africa's Electricity

Demand

Average Elasticity of SouthAfrican Population on

Electricity Demand

PopulationBirths Deaths

Crude BirthRate

Crude DeathRate

Effect of GDP on SouthAfrica's Electricity Demand

GDPGDP Growth

GDP growth RateElasticity of GDP onElecticity Demand

Effect of Electricity Priceon Electricity Demand

Average Elasticity ofElectricity Price onElectricity Demand

Initial GDP

Initial Population

ElectricityPriceElectricity Price

Increase

Price Increase Rate

Initial ElectricityPrice

ElectricityDemandElectricity Demand

GrowthTotal Effect on

Electricity Demand

Relative RealPopulation

Relative Real GDP

Relative RealElectricity Price

South AfricanElectricity Demand

Total Population

<Year Step>

Page 22: Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s … · 2017-08-17 · Fostering Sustainable Energy Transitions for South Africa’s Electricity Sector Nicole du Plooy

Stock and Flow Diagram: Capacity Generation

PlannedBio-FuelCapacity

Bio-FuelCapacity Under

Construction

Bio-FuelOperatingCapacity

DecommissionedBio-FuelCapacityBio-Fuel Project

InitialisationBio-Fuel Construction

InitializationBio-Fuel PlantCommissioning

Bio-Fuel CapacityDecommissioning

Bio-FuelDegradation

Bio-FuelDegradation Factor

Average Bio-FuelPlant Life

Future Bio-FuelCapacity

Current Bio-FuelCapacity

Total Bio-FuelCapacity

Average Bio-FuelProject Planning Delay

Average Bio-Fuel PlantConstruction DelayAverage Bio-Fuel

Project Start Delay

Bio-Fuel ProjectLead Time

Initial PlannedBio-Fuel Capacity

Initial Bio-Fuel Capacityunder Construction

Inital Bio-FuelOperating Capacity

Initial Bio-FuelDecommissioned

Bio-Fuel ScenarioChoice

Bio-Fuel IRP

Bio-Fuel CapacityFactor

<Time>

Total ElectricityGenerated from

Bio-Fuel <MW to MWhConversion>

Scenario Bio-Fuel

<Required NewBio-Fuel>

<SWITCH>