TOP GLOBAL Affecting Downtowns TRENDS & How to …...mobile technologies, Millennials and Gen Z...

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GLOBALTRENDS

TOP Affecting Downtowns& How to Respond at Home

As the American economy pivots into the post-recession

growth cycle, the 2014 edition of P.U.M.A.’s Global Trends Report

prepares downtown management organizations, business leaders

and local decision makers with an informed perspective on converging

trends in demographics, lifestyles and global competition that will

shape our cities for years to come.

eginningin2006,ProgressiveUrbanManagementAssociates (P.U.M.A.)conductedground-breakingresearchtoidentifythe topglobaltrendsimpactingAmericancities.Theoriginal“TopTenGlobalTrendsAffectingDowntowns”waspreparedfortheDowntownDenverPlantoforecastourhometown’sgrowthanddevelopmentpatternsforthenext20years.Fromthefindings,wealsodevelopedpracticalrecommendationsforallAmericandowntownstoanticipateandbenefitfromchange.TheP.U.M.A. Global Trends Reporthassubsequentlybeenutilizedinmanycitiestosupportavarietyofdowntownplanning,marketingandeconomicdevelopmentinitiatives.

In2011,thefirstupdatetoP.U.M.A.’s Global Trends Report wasundertakentorespondtotheimpactofeconomicrecessionandongoingchangesindemo-graphics,lifestylesandglobalcompetition.The2011editionreshuffledhalfofthetrendsandprovidedconvincingevidencethatdowntownsandurbanareaswillcontinuetobenefitfromthem.

Now,in2014,P.U.M.A.teamswiththeUniversityofColoradoDenverCollegeofArchitectureandPlanningtopreparethesecondupdateofP.U.M.A.’s Global Trends Report.Researchwasprovidedby22graduatestudentsfromthefall2013economicdevelopmentsystemsclasstaughtbyP.U.M.A.’sBradSegalandAnnaJones.Morethan250independentsourceswereutilized,reflectingthelatestdataandtheworld’smostsophisticatedthinkersandurbanphilosophers.Classresearchwasverified,supplementedandeditedbyP.U.M.A.’sRenaLeddyandErinLaetz,andthereportwasfinalizedbyBradSegal.

Changing American DemographicsEducation, Talent & JobsEmergence of Young Professional Women

Changing American DemographicsEducation, Talent & JobsIn�uence of Women

Changing American DemographicsImmigration TrendsChanges with the “Creative Class”

Tra�c Congestion & Value of TimeTrends in Health Care/Wellness/RecreationGrowth of TourismAmerica’s Growing Debt Burden

Changing Consumer BehaviorsShifts in Transportation & MobilityHealth, Wellness & Urban FormThe Age of Austerity

Changing Consumer BehaviorsShifts in Transportation & MobilityHealth & WellnessRise of Regionalism

DEMOGRAPHICS

LIFESTYLES

GLOBAL COMPETITIONEmergence of China, India, etc.Continued Advances in TechnologyEnvironmentalism, Sustainability, Climate Change

The Emergence of a Planetary Middle ClassContinued Advances in TechnologySustainability Mainstreamed

Shift in Global WealthContinued Advances in TechnologySocial Equity – The Neglected Pillar of Sustainability

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Changing American DemographicsEducation, Talent & JobsEmergence of Young Professional Women

Changing American DemographicsEducation, Talent & JobsIn�uence of Women

Changing American DemographicsImmigration TrendsChanges with the “Creative Class”

Tra�c Congestion & Value of TimeTrends in Health Care/Wellness/RecreationGrowth of TourismAmerica’s Growing Debt Burden

Changing Consumer BehaviorsShifts in Transportation & MobilityHealth, Wellness & Urban FormThe Age of Austerity

Changing Consumer BehaviorsShifts in Transportation & MobilityHealth & WellnessRise of Regionalism

DEMOGRAPHICS

LIFESTYLES

GLOBAL COMPETITIONEmergence of China, India, etc.Continued Advances in TechnologyEnvironmentalism, Sustainability, Climate Change

The Emergence of a Planetary Middle ClassContinued Advances in TechnologySustainability Mainstreamed

Shift in Global WealthContinued Advances in TechnologySocial Equity – The Neglected Pillar of Sustainability

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America’s population is growing more culturally diverse, as well as younger and older. DemographictrendsintheUnitedStatesremainfavorabletodowntowndevelop-ment.Thepopulationisgrowingbotholder(agingBabyBoomers)andyounger(emergingMillennialsandGenZ).Bothmarketshavefueleddowntownpopula-tiongrowthoverthepastdecadeandarepoisedtocontinuetopopulateurbanenvironments,particularlyinthosecitiesthatofferjobs,housing,amenitiesandactivitiesthatrespondtotheirneeds.Americawillbecomemoreculturallyandethnicallydiverse,creatinganadvantagefordowntownsthatwelcome,accommo-dateandcelebratediversity.Cities need to adapt to an increasingly connected and competitive world.Broaderdistributionofinformationtechnologiesisencouraging“bottom-up”innovationfromentrepreneursthroughouttheglobe.EducationwillbekeyinensuringthatAmericaremainscompetitiveandcitiesthatmakeconnec-tionstohigherinstitutionsoflearningwillbenefit.Downtownsarepoisedtocontinuetobecentersofcreativityandinnovationiftheycanofferabusinessclimatefavorabletotheincubationandgrowthofsmalldynamicenterprises.ThegrowingimportanceofwomenandMillennialsintheAmericanprofessionalclasscreatesopportunitiesfordesigning,programmingandmanagingvibrantandinteractiveurbanenvironments.

Resource-intensive lifestyles are not sustainable. ChangesinAmericanlifestyleswillcon-tinuetobeinfluencedbyglobaltrends.Theemergenceofaplanetarymiddleclasswillstrainthesupplyandincreasethecostsofnon-renewableresources,makingtraditionalsuburbanlanduseandvehiculartransportationpatternsincreasinglyexpensiveandinefficient.Atthesametime,Americanlifestylepref-erencesarefavoringmorewalkable,bike-

ableandtransit-richcommunities.Citieswilllooktomaximizetheuseofexistinginfrastructureandpromotesustainabledevelopment.

Innovation and investment will be more reliant on regional initiative.Anageoffiscalausterityhasdiminishedfederalandstateresourcesdedicatedtoinfrastructure,educationandin-novation,andadvancedeconomies(includingtheU.S.)arespendinglessontheseeconomicbuildingblocksthanemergingeconomieswithlowdebtloadsandstrongcentralgovernments.America’seconomicgrowthwillbeledbycitiesthatchoosetoinvestinregionaltransportation,educationandculturalfacilities.Newpublic/privatefinancingsolutionswillberequired,rangingfromneighborhood-basedcommunityventurefundstoregionalinfrastructurebanks.Awillingnesstoinvest(yes,newtaxes)andinnovate(public/privatepartnerships)willkeepcitiesthatchoosetodosocompetitiveandconnectedtotheglobaleconomy.Thosethatdonotchoosethispathwillbeleftbehindandmiredineconomicstagnation.

Planning for economic diversity is emerging as a priority. Withglobaltrendsintheirfavor,manydowntownsareexperiencinganeco-nomicrenaissancethatisattractingnewinvestmentandhighincomehouseholds.Topreservehopeforupwardmobilityandtheirhistoricalroleindeliveringthe“AmericanDream”,urbancentersneedtoconsidersocialequityinplanningforthefuturebyencouragingavarietyofhousingandtransitoptions,anenhancededucationsystem,publicamenitiesthatpromotehealthylifestylesandpoliciesthatencourageequity.Vibrantdown-townsarewellpositionedtocapitalizeoneconomicopportunitiesintheglobalmarketplacebyofferingtheadvantagesofjobs,entertainment,culture,educa-tion,recreation,healthandlivabilityaccessibletoall.

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DEMOGRAPHICSCapture the young skilled workforce:Downtownshavetheedgeinattractingtheyoungskilledworkforcecovetedbyemployers.Tocapturethismarketpredis-posedtourbanlivingandexperiences,downtownsshouldprovideawelcomingenvironmentandinformationservicesthatmakeiteasytorelocateforjobsandhousing.Embracingsocialtolerance,cel-ebratingmulti-culturalismandusingsocialcommunicationstoolswillinvitepopula-tionsthatareincreasinglydiverseandtechnologicallysavvy.Creativeincentives,suchassubsidizingstudentloandebt,shouldbeconsidered.

Create an environment that appeals to women:Thenextprofessional,work-ingandcreativeclasseswillincreasinglybedominatedbyyoungwomen.SinglefemaleBoomersarealsohavingagrow-inginfluenceintheeconomy.Downtownsmustlookforwaystoappealtowomeninallfacetsofthedowntownexperience,includingphysicalimprovements,environ-mentalstability(i.e.cleanandsafe),mixed-uselivingoptions,transitandmobility,daycare,retailandentertainmentofferings.Encouragingfemaleparticipationinlocalpolicyandurbandesignleadershipposi-tionscouldcreateacompetitiveedge.

Foster education:Educationalinstitutionsarecivicanchors,economicstabilizersandincubatorsofnewcreativebusinessesandjobsthatshouldbeencouragedtolocateandgrowindowntowns.Educa-tioncontinuums,connectinglocalpublicschoolsystemstocollegesandtechnicalschools,shouldbeexplored.Ascitiesworktoattractandretainyoungfamilies,thedevelopmentofqualitydowntownK-12schoolswillbeapowerfulincentive.

Diverse price points and types needed for housing: Toprovideanenvironmentthatattractsamulti-skilledworkforceandeconomically-mixeddemographics,diversehousingpricepointsandunittypesareneeded.Zoningcodes,development

Overall, global trends continue to appear favorable to promote growth in vibrant downtowns.

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The research and conclusions of global trends offer many implications for the future of downtowns. Highlights, as analyzed by Progressive Urban Management Associates (P.U.M.A.), include the following:

2 PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES

PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES 3

standardsandincentivesshouldbeupdatedtopromoteopportunitiesforaffordable,flex-ible,multi-generationalandothernontradi-tionalhousingtypes.

Don’t forget the Boomers and look out for Gen Z: TheGreatRecessionhasreducedmo-bilityoptionsforBabyBoomersandmoreareprojectedto“ageinplace.”UrbanamenitiesthatappealtobothBoomersandMillennialsshouldbeconsidered,includingrobustdiningandentertainmentoptions,andinvestmentsinpromotinghealthylifestylesfromdogparkstopublicmarkets.TheeldestofGenZareen-teringadulthoodandwillbelookingforthesesameamenities.

LIFESTYLESImplement comprehensive mobility strate-gies and “living streets”:Downtownsneedtoinvestinstreetscapes,two-wayconversa-tions,connectivityimprovementsandotherwaystoimplement“livingstreets”principlesthatsupportavarietyofmodesbeyondvehicleswithagreateremphasisondesignforbicyclesandpedestrians.Mobilityoptionsareneededasanalternativetocongestedhigh-waysand,importantly,toappealtoyoungerhighly-skilledandeducatedpopulationsthatareincreasinglydisinterestedinautomobileuseandseekingwalkable,bikeableandtransit-richurbanenvironments.Age-friendlyuniversaldesignstandardsshouldbeem-ployedtopromoteaccessibilityforall,fromagingBoomerstoyoungfamilieswithinfantsandtoddlers.

Promote the “sharing economy”:Groundedwithlessconsumptivevaluesandarmedwithmobiletechnologies,MillennialsandGenZconsumersareincreasinglyseekingoppor-tunitiestoshare,rentorresellgoodsandservices.Bicycleandcarsharingwillbetheacceptednormindowntowns.Localizedappsandotheraccessibletechnologyplatformsforsharingconsumergoods,workplaces,hous-ing,recreationandsocialexperienceswillbuildasenseofcommunity.

Cultivate partnerships with health care providers:Withgrowingdemandforhealthcareservices,partnershipswithlocalhealthcareproviderswillbecriticaltocreateacom-petitiveadvantagefordowntowns.Develop-mentandexpansionofhealthcarefacilitieswillbeimportanteconomicstabilizersandcreatesignificantbusinessspinoffs.Accesstohealthcare,throughclinicsandretailap-plications,shouldbepursued.Healthcare

providerswillalsobestrongcivicpartnerstohelppromotehealthylifestylesthroughurbanliving.

Capitalize on the healthy places and food movements:AdvancedbytheUrbanLandInstitute,aglobalfocusonbuildinghealthyplaceswillgrowwithintherealestatedevel-opmentindustry.Downtownscancapitalizeonthistrendbyimprovingthepublicrealmwithactivegreenspaces,invitingconnec-tionsandwalkablestreets.Severalhealthyfoodmovementsareconvergingtobenefitdowntowns.Newretailprototypescanserverapidlygrowingnichesinlocavoreandor-ganicsegments.Urbanfarmingisatrendthatcanthriveindowntownlocationsonrooftopsandvacantland.Initiativestoeradicatefooddesertscanbringcovetedcornerstoresandfull-servicegroceriestounderservedurbanareas.

Keep it fun, entertaining and interesting: Overthepast25yearsmanydowntownshavebecomehubsforentertainment,cultureandsports.Toremaincompetitiveandcontinuetoattractayounganddiverseworkforce,fortify-ingandexpandingdowntowns’experientialattractionswillbecritical.Downtownsshouldintegratenewmobiletechnologiesintomar-ketingandpromotions.Avarietyofculturesandlanguagesshouldalsobeaccommodat-ed,appealingtoanincreasinglydiverselocalpopulationandinternationaltourists.

Be a strong advocate for regional invest-ment and collaboration: Federalandstateinvestmentininfrastructure,mobilityandeducationhasdecreased.Citiesthatchoosetoinvestintheseinitiativeswillthrive;thosethatdonotmaystagnate.Downtownswillneedtoeducatecommunitiesonthebenefitsofregionalcooperationandinvestment.Solu-tionstoincreasingchallengesrelatedtosocialequity,includinghousingaffordability,betterwages,improvedschoolsandhomeless-ness,willrequireregionalapproaches.Anewemphasisfordowntownorganizationsmayincludeintroducingnewskillsetsandleader-shipcapabilitiestoaffectpolicyandfosterregionalcollaboration.

GLOBAL COMPETITION Entrepreneurship will continue to be a key to job growth:Attracting,retainingandgrowingsmallbusinesseswillcontinuetobeakeyforpromotingjobgrowthandremain-inggloballycompetitive.Downtownsshouldexplorewaystobroadensupporttosmall

businessesandstartupsthroughavarietyofmeans,includingtechnicalassistance,co-workingandotherflexspaces,creativeincentivesand/ordesignationofformal“in-novation”zones.

Develop innovative public/private financ-ing tools:WhileGlobalTrendsarefavorablefordowntowninvestment,conventionalfinancingwillbeconstrainedduetolinger-ingeffectsoftherecessionandgovernmentausteritymeasures.Localitieswillneedtodevelopinnovativepublic/privatefinancingtools,withoptionsrangingfromregionalin-frastructurebankstolocalcommunitylendingandequityfunds.

Be technologically relevant:Socialcommu-nications,inconnectionwithbothplace-basedandbusinessapplications,willcontinuetogrowwiththeproliferationofmobiletechnologiesandtheinfluxofMillennialsintotheworkforce.Downtownsneedtomakesurethattheyaretechnologicallyrelevant,bothinprovidingtheinfrastructurethatsupportsubiquitouscomputing,3Dprintingandinde-velopingthecreativeapplicationsthatkeepatechsavvypopulationengaged.

Adaptive reuse will be more affordable as construction costs rise:Asglobaldemandcontinuesforbuildingmaterials,thecostofnewconstructionwillincrease.Thereuseofexistingbuildingswillbecomerelativelymoreaffordable.Beyondtraditionalhistoricproperties,reuseopportunitieswillbecomeincreasinglyattractiveforpost-1950buildings,includinghighriseofficebuildingsthatwereconstructedduringthe1970sand1980s.

Incorporate sustainability as part of the downtown brand:Withcompacturbanen-vironmentsthatincludebusiness,education,health,cultureandlivingassets,downtownsofferinspirationandrelevancytoemerginggenerationsandtheeconomicmodelforasustainablefuture.

Stay on the leading edge of social equity issues:Withincomeinequalityagrowingnationalconcern,andurbanareasprosperingfromglobaltrends,therewillbeincreasedpressureondowntownstoplanforandparticipateinsocialequitysolutions.Bybring-ingprivatesectorperspectives,downtownmanagementorganizationsareinauniquepositiontoofferbalanceinthesocialequitydialoguethatwillincludehousing,wages,education,homelessnessandothertopics.Downtownscanbringleadership,researchcapabilitiesandpolicyoptionstothisemerg-ingtrend.

Women received 57%

of all bachelor’s degrees,

60% of all master’s

degrees and 51% of all

doctorate degrees.

As the global economy recovers from the

economic downturn,a dramatic rise inpersonal wealth iscreating a rapidly

growing international middle class.

“Walkable real estate”

can command value

premiums of 50%

to 100%.

Millenials, who today comprise 36% of the

workforce, will make up 50% of the workforce

by 2020.

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DEMOGRAPHICS

LIFESTYLES

GLOBAL COMPETITION

GLOBAL COMPETITION

Changing American Demographics

TherearenowfourgenerationsshapingAmeri-cancities,includingBabyBoomers(bornfrom1946to1964),GenerationX(1961to1984),Millennials(1977to2003)andGenZ(1996topresent).Eachgenerationhasbeeninfluencedbyhistoricalevents,technologyandotherenvi-ronmentalfactors.

•America’s76millionBabyBoomersarebettereducated,healthierandwealthierthanallprevi-ousgenerations.Giventheirsheernumbers,theyhavecreatedanunprecedentedboominAmericanproductionandconsumption.Nowtheyareenteringtheirretirementyears,andwhiletheyaremorephysicallyactivethanpriorgenerations,theywillcreateenormousdemandsonthehealthcaresystem.Recentero-sioninhomeequityandretirementfundvalueshavereversedpastmobilitytrendsforBabyBoomers,andnowmoreareexpectedtoretirelaterandto“ageinplace.”

•The53millionindividualsofGenerationX,onceknownasthe“slackergeneration”fortheircynicismandbitternesstowardBabyBoomers,arematuringwiththemajorityofthemnowmarriedwithchildren.GenerationXhouse-holdshavethemostpost-recessiondisposableincomeandnowcomprisethelargestgroupofrecenthomebuyers.GenerationXisapproach-ingitsprimetimewithopportunitiestomoveintoleadershipanddecision-makingpositionsasBabyBoomersstarttoretire.EmploymentprospectsaregoodforGenX’ers,giventhatthisgenera-tionistwo-thirdsthesizeoftheBoomers.

•America’s77millionMil-lennials,brimmingwithoptimismandastrongsenseofsocialactivism,arenow

aimingtobuildcareers.Connectedtotechnol-ogyfromthecrib,Millennialsaretruemulti-taskersanddriversoftechnologicalinnovationsthatincludesocialcommunicationsandsmartphones.Millennialsareusedtoawidevarietyofchoicesandtheabilitytopersonalizeandcus-tomize,notonlyconsumergoodsbutideasaswell.MillennialsarethemostculturallydiversegenerationandareafactorinincreasingracialdiversityandacceptanceinAmericancities.Fiftyeightofthelargest100Americancitiesarenowmajorityminority,comparedto43in2000.

•TheGenZ’seldestarenowenteringcollege,andwhereMillennialsareoptimistic,GenZaremorerealistic.They’vegrownupinapost9/11world,theGreatRecessionandcontinuousreportsofschoolviolence.Theseeventsmakethemmorecautious,howevertheyareinspiredtoimprovetheworld.GenZisusheringinthemostdramaticdemographicshiftinAmericanhistory;thedisplacementofwhitesasthemajorityracialgroupresultingintheshifttoasocietywithoutaclearmajoritygroup.By2018,childrenunder18willbemajority-minorityandtherewillbenoracialmajorityintheU.S.by2042.

OthernotabledemographicshiftsfindHis-panicsemergingasthelargestethnicgroupinAmericancities(26%ofurbandwellersareHispanicvs.22%forAfricanAmericans).

Education, Talent & Jobs

Theconnectionbetweeneducation,talentandjobsemergedinthelasteditionofP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReport.Whilethereareplentyofavailableworkersinthepost-recessionecono-my,employersarehavingtroublefillingcertaintypesofjobsduetowideningskillsgaps.Soughtafteremployeesarebecominghardertofind;thelaborpoolisshrinkingbecauseex-periencedBabyBoomersarebeginningtoretireandtherateofimmigrationhasslowed.Twentymillionjobswillbecreatedthrough2020,creat-

ingmorejobsthanthereareskilledworkerstofillthem.

Acompetitiveadvantageisalreadyplacedon“thetalentdividend,”ortheconcentrationofhighlyskilledemployeesincit-ies.Citiesthatcultivateandareabletofillmid-andhigh-wage

jobsareinthebestpositiontoeconomicallyflourish.Increasingly,younghighlyeducatedadultsarechoosingtomoveintocities.Since2000,inmorethantwo-thirdsofthenation’slargestcities,theyoungcollege-educatedpopulationgrewtwiceasfastwithinthreemilesoftheurbancoreasintherestofthemetropoli-tanarea.Companieswillbeunderincreasedpressuretoconsideroperatingincitycentersasthelimitedsupplyofthistalentnichebecomesmoreurbanized.Additionally,Millennials,whotodaycomprise36%oftheworkforce,willmakeup50%oftheworkforceby2020.

Communitiesthatarehometolargeeduca-tionalinstitutionswillenjoyeconomicadvan-tages.Duringtherecession,foreclosureandunemploymentratesweregenerallylowerincollegetowns.Educationalinstitutescanalsohelpbridgetheskillsgapinthecitiesinwhichtheyarelocated.

Immigration,oneofourtoptrendsfromP.U.M.A.’soriginalGlobalTrendsReport,willcon-tinuetobeafactorinbuildingahighlyskilledlaborforce.Collegeeducatedimmigrantsnowoutnumberthosewithoutahighschooldiplomain44ofthe100largestmetropolitanareas.In2005,foreign-bornindividualsrepre-sentedoneineightAmericans.Thatnumberisanticipatedtoincreasetooneinfiveby2050.

The Influence of Women

SincethefirsteditionofGlobalTrends,theinflu-enceofwomenonshapingcitiesanddown-townshascontinuedtogrow.Theyear2009wasalandmark,markingthefirsttimethatmorewomenwereemployedintheU.S.laborforcethanmen.Inthefollowingyear,two-thirdsoffamilyhouseholdshadwomenwhowereeitherbreadwinnersorco-breadwinners.

Womenareanticipatedtodominateprofes-sionaloccupationsinthefutureandhavebeenoutpacingmenineducationalattainmentsincethe1970s.In2011,womenreceived57%ofallbachelor’sdegrees,60%ofallmaster’sdegreesand51%ofalldoctoratedegrees.Tofortifytheirpositionashubsforcommerce,down-townsmustofferenvironmentsthatappealtoprofessionalwomen.Vibrantmixed-useenvi-ronmentscanfulfilldiverseneedsthatincludeshopping,socializing,grooming,childrearingandotherhouseholdactivities.

Women received 57%

of all bachelor’s degrees,

60% of all master’s

degrees and 51% of all

doctorate degrees.

As the global economy recovers from the

economic downturn,a dramatic rise inpersonal wealth iscreating a rapidly

growing international middle class.

“Walkable real estate”

can command value

premiums of 50%

to 100%.

Millenials, who today comprise 36% of the

workforce, will make up 50% of the workforce

by 2020.

Women received 57%

of all bachelor’s degrees,

60% of all master’s

degrees and 51% of all

doctorate degrees.

As the global economy recovers from the

economic downturn,a dramatic rise inpersonal wealth iscreating a rapidly

growing international middle class.

“Walkable real estate”

can command value

premiums of 50%

to 100%.

Millenials, who today comprise 36% of the

workforce, will make up 50% of the workforce

by 2020.

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DEMOGRAPHICS

LIFESTYLES

GLOBAL COMPETITION

GLOBAL COMPETITION

SingleBoomerwomenareemergingasaneconomicpower,astheyoutlivetheirspousesorhaveseparatedfromthem.Manyarefavoringcohousingorhousesharing,wheretwoormoresinglesmoveintogetherashouse-mates.WithhomeownershipbeingveryimportanttoBoomerwomen,theyarethesecondlargestsegmentofhomebuyersintheU.S.andaccountfor20%ofhomepurchases.

Despitethegrowingimportanceoffemalesintheworkplace,theyhavenotyetachievedcom-parablesignificanceinthecorporate,politicalanddesign-relatedprofessionsthatinfluencetheshapeofcities.Thepercentageoffemalemayorsofcitieswithover30,000peopleis17%,only18%oflawmakersinCongressarewomenandsixstateshavefemalegovernors.Inthedesignprofessions,lessthan15%ofarchitectsand37%ofplannersarefemale.However,theseimbalancesaresubjecttochangeas45%ofmasterdegreesand46%ofdoctoratedegreesinarchitecturalandplanningserviceswerereceivedbywomenin2012.

Thenationalandinternationalpoliticalland-scapeisexpectedtochangeasmorefemalesaredrawntoelectedoffice.Femalepoliticalprioritiesdifferfromthoseofmenwithanemphasisoneconomicdevelopment,environ-mentalissuesandhealthcare.

Changing Consumer Behaviors TheGreatRecessionhasendedandwhilecon-sumerexpenditureshavereachedpre-recessionlevels,consumerconfidenceremainslow.The

pre-recessioneraofimpulse-drivenconspicuouscon-sumptionappearstobeover,replacedbymorepracticalanddeliberatespending.Thefactorsdeterminingvaluenowincludequality,functionalityandconvenience,environmen-talandsocialconsiderations.

Boomersarefacingtheprospectofworkinglongerandretiringwithsmallernesteggsthantheyexpectedpre-recession.ThoseinGenerationXareintheprocessofrebuildingtheirwealthwhileatthesametimesupportinghouseholds.Withtheirentranceintotheworkforceandtheirdesiretoliveinanurbansetting,Millennialswillbethedrivingforcebehindconsumerspendingandthesharingofgoodsandservicesindowntowns.

Technologyischangingtheshoppingexperi-enceandwillcontinuetodosoasbusinessesadaptnewtechnologiestomakeshoppingmoreconvenient.Mobilepaymentapplications,locationbasedcoupons,andin-storevirtualdressingroomsarecreatinganimprovedexpe-rienceforthecustomer.Whileonlinesalesareincreasing,theystillaccountforasmallportionoftotalretailsales.In2013,onlinesalesonlyaccountedfor6%andareexpectedtoaccountfor10%by2017.

Thegrowthofthe“sharingeconomy,”wheresocialnetworksallowindividualstoshare,rentorreselltheirbelongings,isflourishinginhighdensityurbanareas.Sharingapplicationsnowincludecars,workplaces,hotellodgingandhouseholdtoolsandappliances,andareexpectedtogrowovertime.

Asdowntownpopulationsincrease,thedemandforawidevarietyofretailhasgrown.Thishasinfluencedbig-boxretailcompaniestore-examinetheirstoreformats.Groceryretailersarestartingtoadaptasmoreconsumers(espe-ciallyMillennials)livingindowntownsdemandmoreorganicandnaturalfoods.

Shifts in Transportation & Mobility

P.U.M.A.’sfirstGlobalTrendsReportfocusedontrafficcongestionandthevalueoftime.Sinceoursecondreportin2011,we’veseensignifi-cantchangesintransportationpreferences.Congestionremainsasignificantfactoron

Americanhighwaysastheaveragecommuterinthe100largestcitieslosesanaverageof39hoursperyearsittingintrafficgoingnowhere,comparedto14hoursin1982.Congestionhasstabilizedinthepastseveralyearsandvehiclemilestraveledhasforthefirsttimedecreasedbetween5%and9%from2006to2011,afactoroftherecession,telecommuting,agingBoom-ersandemergingtrendsinmobility.

Vehicleexpenseanddemographicchangesareshiftingbe-haviorsawayfromautos.Carandbikesharingprogramshavebeenadoptedinmanycitiesacrosstheglobe.Today,500citiesin49countrieshostmodernbikeshareprograms,thefastestgrowthofanymodeoftransportinthehistoryoftheplanet.Valuepremiumsarebeingplacedonurbanlivingenvironmentswhereresidentscanwalk,bikeortakemass-transittowork,shoppingandrecreation.“Walkablerealestate”cancommandvaluepremiumsof50%to100%.Increasingly,citiesareusingtheir“walkscores”asameasureofeconomiccompetitiveness.

America’stwolargestdemographicgroups–BabyBoomersandMillennials–areprimarilyresponsibleforchangingtransportationhabits.Boomersaresimplifyinganddownsizinghouse-holds,oftenmovingtowalkableurbanareas.Millennials,manyofwhomgrewupbeingtaxiedinthebackseatoftheirparent’scar,areseekingwalkableandsocialenvironments.Theshareofautomobilemilesdrivenbypersonsintheir20shasdroppedprecipitouslyoverthepast15years:thisagegroupaccountsfornearly21%ofallautomobilemilesdrivenin1995,butlessthan14%by2009.

Local,stateandfederaltransportationprioritiesarechangingtofavorbikelanes,morewalkablecommunities,lightrail,highspeedtrains,street-carsandthelike.In2012,130communitiesad-opted“CompleteStreets”policiesthatencour-agemodesbeyondcars,bringingthenationaltotaltonearly500.Publictransitcontinuestobeaneconomicbuildingblockasmorethan80citiesintheU.S.andCanadaareexploringnewstreetcarand/orrailsystems.

Health & Wellness

PrioreditionsofP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReportfocusedonthegrowingimbalancebetweenthedemandforandsupplyofAmericanhealthcare.Asthenumberofpeopleovertheageof65isexpectedtogrowto70millionby2030,greaterdemandwillbeplacedonthehealthcareprofession(personsage65andovergeneratethreetimesmoredoctorvisitsthanyoungerpersons).WithhalfofU.S.doctorsovertheageof50,theirpendingretirementcoupledwithdecliningenrollmentinhealthcareeducationisexpectedtocreateashort-ageofhealthcareprofessionals.TheAfford-ableHealthCareActandexpansionofMedic-aidisacceleratingthisimbalance,addinganestimated32millionpersonstoinsurancerollsby2020.

Thehealthcareindustrywillcontinuetoexperiencesignificantgrowthandhaveanincreasedeconomicimpactoncities.Employ-mentopportunitiesandupgradedinfrastruc-turewillstrengthentheroleofhealthcareinstitutionsaseconomicanchorsandcivicleaders.

Theconnectionbetweenhealthandthebuiltenvironmentisanemergingtrend,propelledbyanationalawarenesstowardtheriseofchronicconditionssuchasobesity.TherealestatemarketiscatchingontothepreferencesofMillennialsandBabyBoomersforhealthierlifestyles,demonstratedbytheUrbanLandInstitute’sglobalfocusonbuildinghealthyplaces.Citiesarerespondingwithpoliciesandincentivestoshapewalkableandbikeablecommunities,eradicatefooddesertsandimproveaccesstohealthyfood.

Creatingopportunitiesforcities,thelocavoremovementcontinuestogrow,andstudiesfindthattheoverwhelmingmajorityofurbandwellerswillpayapremiumforlocallygrownfood.Theconceptofurbanagricultureisbeingembraced,communitygardensareincreas-inglypopularandagriculturalconversionisaviableoptioninshrinkingcitiesandsuburbs.

Rise of Regionalism

WhenwefirstpublishedP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReport,theshareofthenationaldebtforeachAmericanwas$29,000.Sevenyearslater,thatnumberisnearing$55,000andgrowing.AndwhilepolicymakersarefocusedoncorrallingAmerica’sdebtburden,thede-mographicimbalancebetweenretiringBabyBoomersandworkingGenXersandMillenni-alsmakesthisadauntingtask.MedicareandMedicaidobligationscontinuetogrowasthe

largestshareofthefederalbudget.TosupportSocialSecurity,thesecondlargestshareofthefederalbudget,therewere16workersforeachpensionrecipientin1950,andby2030,therewillbeonlytwoworkersforeachrecipient.

Acknowledgingthedebtburdenanditsroleincon-strictingtheabilityofthefederalgovernmenttoinvestininfrastructure,educationandinnovation,thistrendwasrenamed“TheAgeofAusterity”inthe2011editionofP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReport.Today,adysfunctionalandpolarizedpoliticalclimateinWashingtonaddsthedimensionofparalysis,prolonginganominoustrendforlimitedfederalresponse.

Unlikethefederalgovernment,moststatesandlocalgovernmentsmustoperatewithbalancedbudgets.Citiesandcountiesarepartneringwithprivatecompanies,universi-ties,hospitals,unions,andotherinstitutionsinordertomakethingshappen.Anemergingtrendofregionalcollaborationandinvest-mentmarksahistoricalshiftintakingonresponsibilitiesoncereservedforhigherlevelsofgovernment.Forexample,citieslikeLosAngeles,DenverandChicagoarelargelyself-financingtheirregionaltransitsystemsinsteadofwaitingforfederalfunds.Avarietyoftoolsarebeingmobilizedtofinancelocalandregionalinvestmentsininfrastructure,educationandinnovation.Regionalbondandtaxinitiatives,infrastructurebanksandpublic/privatepartnershipsarereshapinghowpublicworksareconstructed.

Shift in Global Wealth

InprioreditionsofP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReport,welookedatconsumptionpatternsinChina,Indiaandotheremergingecono-miesaroundtheworldandtheirimpactonAmericancities.Astheglobaleconomy

recoversfromtheeconomicdownturn,adramaticriseinpersonalwealthiscreatingarapidlygrowinginternationalmiddleclass.Inaworldofin-terconnectedparts,America’sabilitytochartitsowndes-tinycontinuestodiminish.

Therecessionacceleratedtherelativegrowthofemergingeconomies(ledbyChina,

IndiaandBrazil)whilecreatingaprolongedperiodofeconomicstagnationinadvancedeconomies(U.S.,EuropeandJapan).ChinaeclipsedJapanastheworld’ssecondlargesteconomy,andasitsmiddleclassgrows,indi-vidualpurchasingincreasesanditspopula-tioncontinuestourbanize.China’srelativeconsumptionofglobalcommoditiescontinuestoincrease(59%ofglobalconcretein2011vs.47%in2005,andmorethan24%ofglobalcarsalesin2011vs.lessthan1%in2000).

It’snotjustChinathatisbecomingwealthier.RapidlyrisingconsumptionpatternsarealsoevidentinBrazil,Mexico,Indonesia,SouthKo-rea,TurkeyandRussiaaswellasotheremerg-ingeconomies.20%oftheworld’speopleinthehighestincomecountriesaccountfor86%oftotalglobalprivateconsumption-thepoorest20%onlyrepresent1.3%.Thesizeofthe“globalmiddleclass”willincreasefrom1.8billionin2009to3.2billionby2020and4.9billionby2030.AmajorityofthisgrowthwillbecenteredonAsia,with66%oftheglobalmiddleclasslivingonthatcontinentby2030.

Emergingeconomiesarelargelyunencum-beredbydebtandmostareledbystrongcentralgovernmentsthatwillinvestheavilyininfrastructure,educationandinnovation.Continuedglobalgrowthwillalsoplaceupwardpressureonthepricesofcommoditiesandresources,makinglandusepatternsthatpromotesprawlandvehicleuseincreasinglyexpensive.

Continued Advances in Technology

Ascitedinthe2011editionofGlobalTrends,theexpansionandadvancementofmobiletechnologiescontinuestohaveprofoundim-plicationsforcities.Theprojectednumberofmobileconnections(7.4billion)isexpectedtobemorethantheprojectedglobalpopulation(7.2billion)by2015.

Theubiquityofmobiledeviceshasresultedinanemergenceofappsforreal-time,up-to-dateinformation.Forexample,mobileappsallowdriverstochangetheirroutesinreal

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Women received 57%

of all bachelor’s degrees,

60% of all master’s

degrees and 51% of all

doctorate degrees.

As the global economy recovers from the

economic downturn,a dramatic rise inpersonal wealth iscreating a rapidly

growing international middle class.

“Walkable real estate”

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premiums of 50%

to 100%.

Millenials, who today comprise 36% of the

workforce, will make up 50% of the workforce

by 2020.

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timeandtoshowcurrentparkingavailabilitythroughoutcities.

MunicipalitiesarecapitalizingonmobileappsandtheInternettoprovidetransparencyinpublicprocessesandbetterengagewithcitizens.“Digitalmeetinghalls”arelikelytobeusedincreasinglyasGenerationXandMillen-nialsbecomemoreinvolvedinplanningandothercivicpursuits.

Mobiledevicesarecontinuingtodiminishtheimportanceofstaticofficelocations,allow-ingforconnectionsanywhereanytime.Officespaceconfigurationsarechanging,withre-ducedspaceneededtoconductbusiness,plusgreaterutilizationofspacebeyondtraditionaleight-hourworkdays.Toattractyoungskilledemployees,officedesignwillincreasinglycombinebusinessandsocialfunctions–agrowthofmixed-useprincipleswithinbuild-ingsaswellasoutsideofthem.Thegrowingpopularityof“co-working”spacesarereflectiveofthesetrends.

Techgiantsareexperimentingwithaugment-edrealityproducts,providingcomputer-gen-eratedsensoryinputsuchassound,video,andGPStoenhanceone’sownenvironment.Smarttechnologieswillsupplementmobiledevices,cars,buildings,andotherelementsofthebuiltenvironmenttoenhancethequalityoflifeincities.Withreal-timedata-intensivesmarttechnologies,apps,cloudstorage,andsharing,citiesareunderpressuretomakehigh-speedInternetaccessfasterandfreetothepublic,similartoover-the-airtelevision.

Advancesin3Dprintingtechnologymayradi-callychangemanufacturingprocesses,addinganotheradvantagetoclustersofinnovationincities.Traditionalmanufacturingreliedontestingofprototypesandthecreationofmas-siveindustrialinfrastructureforproduction.3Dprintingallowsforcustomizationinbothprototypesandproduction,drasticallycuttingmanufacturingcostsandtiming.

Social Equity – The Neglected Pillar of Sustainability

SincethefirsteditionofP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReport,themajorityoftheplanetnowlivesincities,asopposedtoruralareas.Citiestodayhouse3.5billionpeopleandanaddi-tional3billionwillurbanizeby2050,resultinginmorethantwo-thirdsoftheworldpopula-tionlivingincities.Resourceconsumptionatcurrentlevelscouldresultinannualdemandsof200%oftheEarth’soverallbio-capacity,itsabilitytomeethumanneedswithbiologicallyproductivelandsandoceans,by2050.

Citiesprovideabeaconofhopeforencourag-ingmoresustainablepatternsofdevelopment.Currently,America’s100largestmetropolitanareasaccountfor75%ofthenation’seconom-icoutputwith56%ofthecountry’scarbonemissions.Americancitiesareinnovatorsinsustainabilitypolicies,encouragingLEEDand“NetZero”certifiedbuildingsandinnovationingreentechnologies.

Whilethereisbroadunderstandingoftheeco-nomicandenvironmentalaspectsofsustain-ability,itsthirdpillar,socialequity,islargelyneglected.Asglobaltrendshavebenefitedcitiesinrecentyears,wehaveseenamigra-tionoflargelyupperincomeprofessionalstoliveindowntowns.Atthesametime,incomeinequalityintheUnitedStatesisatitsmostex-tremesince1928.Today,thetop1%ofAmeri-canhouseholdsearn22.5%ofpre-taxwealth,whilethelower90%ofAmericanhouseholdsearnlessthan50%ofpre-taxwealthforthefirsttimeever.

Economistsdebatewhetherincomeinequalityimpedesoveralleconomicgrowth,butitcanposechallengesforcities.Manyurbanareasareonthevergeofbecomingenclavesoftherich,unabletohouseorsustainservicework-ersormiddleincomeprofessionalssuchasteachersandnurses.YoungskilledMillennials,therawmaterialneededtogrowaprofession-aldowntownworkforce,arefindingitincreas-inglydifficulttoaffordurbanlifestyles.

Cities,oncethegatewayforthe“AmericanDream”ofupwardmobility,mayhavedifficultyindeliveringthishopeinthefuture.Aland-mark2013studyfoundthatincomemobilityismoreproblematicinsprawlingeconomi-callysegregatedcitiesthaninhigh-densityurbanareaswithmixedincomes.Downtownsmayneedtobemoreproactiveinpromotingaffordablehousing,betterwagesandqualityschools,orexpectarisingtideofcivicactivismtodemandthem.

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ResearchforP.U.M.A.’sGlobalTrendsReport2014wasundertakenby22graduatestudentsinthefall2013economicdevelopmentsys-temsclassattheUniversityofColoradoDenverCollegeofArchitectureandPlanning,MasterofUrbanandRegionalPlanning(MURP)pro-gram.TheMURPprogramcountsover1,300alumniandisthelargestplanningprogramintheRockyMountainregion.LocatedintheheartofDowntownDenver,weuseColoradoasourclassroomandemphasizeexperiential,hands-on,real-worldlearning.Ourteaching,researchandcommunityengagementcenteronthreeissuesattheforefrontofplanningpractice:HealthyCommunities,UrbanRevital-ization,andRegionalSustainability.

Fromlefttoright:BradSegal,co-lecturer,ElizabethFuselier,WatkinsFulk-Gray,RyannAnderson,HamadBasaeed,MatthewDuBose,BradleyBoland,DylanGrabowski,PrestonNakayama,TimCamarillo,EugeneHoward,ClaytonCross,JoseJuarez,LisaSteiner,AdamRolstad,BrandonShaver,RileyLaMie,MatthewChristoff,CoryHoerner,CraigFisher,ElizabethGwinn,KentWimbush,RobertNg,AnnaJones,co-lecturer

Research was verified, supplemented and edited by P.U.M.A.’s Rena Leddy and Erin Laetz. P.U.M.A.’s Brad Segal finalized the report.Supporting research for P.U.M.A.’s Global Trends Report 2014 and information on public presentations are available by contacting us at www.pumaworldhq.com

Researchers for Global Trends

PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES 7

©ProgressiveUrbanManagementAssociates2014

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n Economic Development Strategies n Strategic Planningn Creating Healthy Communitiesn Community Engagementn Forming, Expanding Or Renewing Business Improvement Districtsn Community Development Tools

Brad Segal, Presidentbrad@pumaworldhq.com

Anna Jones, Vice Presidentanna@pumaworldhq.com

Erica Heller, Senior Associateerica@pumaworldhq.com

Erin Laetz, Associateerin@pumaworld.com

Rena Masten Leddy, Vice Presidentrena@pumaworldhq.com

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Progressive Urban Management Associates (P.U.M.A.) is a consulting firm providing management, marketing and financial services to advance downtown and community development. The firm has provided services to more than 200 clients in 35 states, the District of Columbia, Canada, Jamaica and the Bahamas. Clients include downtown management organizations, local governments, community development corporations and private firms.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON P.U.M.A., VISIT WWW.PUMAWORLDHQ.COM

The Master of Urban and Regional Planning (MURP) program at the University of Colorado Denver counts over 1300 alumni and is the largest planning program in the Rocky Mountain region. Located in the heart of Downtown Denver, we use Colorado as our classroom and emphasize experiential, hands-on, real-world learning. Our teaching, research and community engagement center on three issues at the forefront of planning practice: Healthy Communities, Urban Revitalization, and Regional Sustainability.

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