RD Market for Downtowns and Walkable Neighborhoods 2011-2

8/7/2019 RD Market for Downtowns and Walkable Neighborhoods 2011-2

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Renaissance Downtowns Presents: Downtowns and Walkable Neighborhoods Page 1

DOWNTOWNS AND WALKABLE NEIGHBORHOODS

AMERICAS NEW HOUSING PARADIGM

An Emergence of the Boutique City in the 21 st Century

Release Date: March 1, 2011 Renaissance Downtowns LLC

In Conjunction with Kern Investment Research LLCand Zimmerman Volks and Associates


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INTRODUCTIONThe American housing market is undergoing a significant transformation from suburbanliving to a return to mixed use, walkable, urban environments. Influenced in large partby changing demographics and new consumer preferences, coupled with an increase intransit funding for commuter and high speed rail, we will bear witness in the coming

years to a tremendous increase in urban living, including the revival of suburbandowntowns, also known as boutique cities.

According to a recent Urban Land Institute (ULI) report,approximately 150 million Americans currently live within urbanareas: a number that is expected to double by 2050.

Of people surveyed who thought they would purchase a house inthe next three years, 61% were more likely to look for a home in a

smart growth, pedestrian-friendly communitywith shortercommute times, local shopping and sidewalksthan in a sprawlingcommunity. 1

By 2025, at least 25% or 14.6 million new households looking torent or purchase housing will be seeking homes in transit zones the half-mile radius around a fixed-guideway transit stationwhich is double the current estimate of seven million in 2010. 2

Demographers estimate that as much as 30% of current demandfor housing is in dense, walkable, mixed-use communities, but lessthan two percent of new housing falls into this category. 3

In summary, the untapped market potential that has resulted from the relative lack of new housing located in walkable, transit-served suburban downtowns is a prime realestate opportunity of the 21st century. Municipalities and redevelopment firms thatrecognize and adjust to these new market realities by providing for walkable, downtownneighborhoods will be poised for success, while those that hold onto the antiquated,sprawl development mentality will likely falter.

1Belden Russonello & Stewart. 2004 American Community Survey: National Survey on Communities. Conducted for SmartGrowth America and National Association of Realtors. 2 Hidden in Plain Sight, Reconnecting America, Center for Transit-Oriented Development. Sept. 2004. 3Livable Communities Act of 2009. S.1619. (2009).


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A TREND TOWARDS A MORE URBANSUBURBIA: RISE OF THE BOUTIQUE CITY

Recent studies indicate a significant demand for downtown living within boutique cities thus providing an exceptional market opportunity for municipalities and real estatedevelopers

Over the past decade, a growing number of American households have elected to leavebehind suburban sprawl and are seeking insteadto reside in walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods,

including those located in traditionally suburbanareas. These boutique cities, which compriselive, work, learn, shop and play environments,are characterized by their proximity to publictransportation, convenient and diverseshopping, office space and a wide array of residential choices for individuals and families.

As the nation gradually recovers from the worsteconomic slump since the Great Depression,new market and economic realities will continueto drive urbanization at every scale. What hadbegun as a return to big city living during themid to late 1990s has now spread to growth of smaller city and suburban downtowns. Thistrend is expected to continue for theforeseeable future, leading to an increasedrevitalization of once forgotten suburban towns,villages and cities into new mixed-use suburbandowntowns within "urban suburbia."

Trillions of dollars are likely to be redirectedfrom the construction of single-usedevelopments toward the redevelopment of existing downtowns and the creation of newmixed-use centers.

POPULATION GROWTH, DEMOGRAPHIC ANDLIFESTYLE SHIFTS: A CHANGE IN MARKETPREFERENCES

The Census Bureau projects the U.S. populationwill grow by as much as 146 million over thenext 40 years. Preferences for suburban orexurban (i.e., a region lying beyond the suburbsof a city) detached houses will steadily decline,while the demand for downtown living withinboutique cities will continue to grow. However,supply of more urban, walkable communitieslags far behind the demand. The delta betweenthe significant demand and limited supply of boutique downtown residential optionsprovides an exceptional market opportunity formunicipalities and real estate developmentfirms that can adequately address the needs of the burgeoning market for downtown living.

Baby Boomers and Millennials: RedefiningHousing Needs"The radically-changing character of today'shousing market is the result of the convergence

of the two largest generations in the history of America: the 80 million post-World War II babyboomers, who were born during 1946-1964,and the 78 million millennials, who were bornfrom 1977-1996. Both generations are at astage in life where urban living at every scalematches their lifestyle. 4

The aging of the millennials has directlyimpacted the baby boomers, many of whom arenow empty nesters, thus resulting in anacceleration of the long-term trend towardsmaller households. However, the decreasingsize of the American household is now drivenless by fewer children per household and more

4Zimmerman Yolk Associates, Inc. "America's Two LargestGenerations are Headed Downtown."


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by dramatic increases in the number of households without any children. Only 34% of U.S. households have children under the age of 18, according to the most current censuspopulation survey. 5 The percentage of family

households with at least one child under the ageof 18 living at home is at its lowest level since1950. 6

"During the baby boom era, about one-half of American households were raisingchildren; in 2030, it is expected that onlyabout 25% will be. Between 2010 and2030, the increase in the number of single-person households will be more thandouble the increase in the number of households with children." 7 The decreasein average household size is an importantfactor in determining what type of housingproduct will be sought by the consumerduring the coming years and decades, as smallerhouseholds have demonstrated a preference fordowntowns and other urban neighborhoods. 8

5U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2009Annual Social and Economic Supplement.6U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2008Annual Social and Economic Supplement.7Nelson, Arthur C. "The New Urbanity: The Rise of a NewAmerica." The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 626.1(2009): 192-208. 8Robert Charles Lesser & Co. Measuring the Market forGreen Residential Development, (2008).

The transformation of the American householdextends beyond structural demographic shifts.The American lifestyle is also changing inprofound ways.

The Creative Class: A New Class of WorkerAfter a generation of decline in civic and socialinvolvement, many Americans now consider theneighborhood their living environment to

be as important as thetype of home in whichthey live. This newemphasis on the livingenvironment outside of ones dwelling unit hasimpacted the workplaceas well as housing. Thegrowth of the"knowledge economy"workforce dubbed the

"creative class" by Richard Florida, a professor,economist and social scientist who serves ashead of the Martin Prosperity Institute at theRotman School of Management at theUniversity of Toronto is one of the majorfactors contributing to the changing Americanlifestyle. Today the creative class representsabout 33% of the workforce, as contrasted with30 years ago, when they represented only 15%.The creative class is typically divided into twomain groups:

Super-Creative Core : This group comprisesabout 12% of all U.S. jobs and includes awide range of occupations (i.e., science,engineering, research, education, and

computer programming),with arts, design, and mediaworkers forming a smallsubset. Florida considersthose belonging to thisgroup to fully engage in thecreative process. Theprimary function of the


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Super-Creative Core is to be innovative andto create commercial products andconsumer goods. Along with problemsolving, their work may entail problemfinding. 9

Creative Professionals: These professionalsare the classic knowledge-based workersand include those employed in the fields of healthcare, business and finance, the legalsector, and education. They draw oncomplex bodies of knowledge to solvespecific problems using higher degrees of education to do so. 10

The creative class is the fastest growing segmentof the American workforce and is expected togrow by over 10 million jobs in the next decade.Such growth will have a profound impact on theevolution of livingenvironments, as thehousing preferences of thecreative class trend towarda mixed use, walkable andoften transit-orientedenvironment, as opposedto a traditional singlefamily home lifestyle.

The creative class accountsfor nearly half of all wageand salary income in theUnited States as much as the manufacturingand service sectors combined, and providesnearly 70% of all discretionary income. 11 Theimpact of the creative class reaches all aspects

of American life and the economy, including forexample the resurgence of the neighborhood

9Florida, Richard. The Rise of the Creative Class. NewYork: Basic Books, 2002. 10http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_class.11Florida, Richard. The Rise of the Creative Class. NewYork: Basic Books, 2002.

caf, which often serves as a substitute for theoffice and a venue for work and businessmeetings. Prior to the emergence of the newurban lifestyle, a retail business model likeStarbucks could not have succeeded.

Todays recent college graduates and youngprofessionals are making different lifestylechoices as contrasted with past generations.Nearly two-thirds report they will decide first where to live, and then look for a job within thatarea. 12 "A major benefit of walkable urbandevelopment is they attract the well educated,the so-called 'creative class." 13

NEW CONSTRUCTION MAY NOT CORRELATE TO21 st CENTURY HOUSING PREFERENCESIn the first decade of the 21 st century, far fewerAmerican households have demonstrated an

interest in a detachedhouse on a large lot insuburban or exurbanlocations. According toArthur Chris Nelson,director of theMetropolitan ResearchCenter at the Universityof Utah, there could bea surplus of 22 millionlarge-lot houses (builton lots of 1/6 acre orlarger) by 2025. 14

12Attracting College-Educated, Young Adults to Cities."The Segmentation Company, Yankelovich. May, 2006. 13Leinberger. Christopher. "Creative Types Will Vote WithTheir Feet". Cleveland Plain Dealer. May 13, 2008:http://Iwww.cleinberger.com/docs/By_CL/ClevelandPlainDealer_CreativeTypes_05I308.pdf. 14Is the McMansion Dead? Builder Magazine, November2009.


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The mortgage crisis and recent collapse of thehousing market, coupled with the shift inconsumer demographics and preference inhousing product, has created a surplus of unsold single family homes.

The dramatic increase in gasoline, electricity,natural gas and home heating costs influencesthe location, size and type of dwellings in whichwe choose to live in several ways:

Location: As commuting costs continue toclimb, the appeal of living in the sprawlingsuburbs has diminished. A correlation existsbetween foreclosure rates and the

time/distance involved in commuting towork, demonstrating these costs havebecome a burden many homeowners can nolonger sustain.

Size: Heating, cooling and electricity costshave given Americans reason to reconsiderhow large a living space is actually practicalor necessary.

Type: The higher energy-efficiency of attached dwellings and multi-familydwellings is becoming more of a factor in thedecision-making process.

As the flow of capital is gradually restored and housing production once again resumes acrossthe country these positive shifts in our economy will present a significant development opportunity over the next several decades

MARKET DEMAND OUTPACES SUPPLY OFWALKABLE, DOWNTOWN NEIGHBORHOODSThe trend toward re-urbanization has becomeevident in many metro areas, most notably in a2009 study conducted by the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency examiningsettlement patterns in the 50 largest

metropolitan regions. The study comparedpermit trends from 1990-2007 between centralcities and core suburban communities tosuburban and exurban communities, and foundan "acceleration of residential construction in

urban neighborhoods [that] reflects afundamental shift in the real estate market.During this time period, "in roughly half of themetropolitan areas examined, urban corecommunities dramatically increased their shareof new residential building permits. Theincrease has been particularly dramatic over thepast five years," i.e., 2003-2007. 15

Thus, the waning market for suburban andexurban living leaves a multitude of unsoldsingle-family houses across the nation.Additionally, despite the resurgence of development in a number of America's citiesand towns, the creation of more urban types of housing such as lofts and apartments has notcome close to the market potential for housinglocated in walkable neighborhoods.

In his book Zoned Out, Jonathan Levine, Chairand Professor in the Urban and RegionalPlanning Program at the University of MichiganTaubman College of Architecture and UrbanPlanning, suggests that one-third of homeowners would prefer to live in walkableneighborhoods. However, with only 5-10% of the housing supply in most metropolitan areaslocated in these types of neighborhoods, andwith the availability of such supply increasing byonly a mere two to three percent per year, it willtake a generation for the supply to catch up

with the demand.

Although housing in mixed-use walkabledowntowns is typically more expensive to

15Thomas, John V., Residential Construction Trends inAmericas Metropolitan Regions, Washington, DC: U.S.Environmental Protection Agency, January 2009.


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produce, consumers appear willing to pay thepremium. Walkable, urban communitiescommand a price per square foot of 40-200%more than similar properties in the same marketthat are not within a walkable, urban

community.16

Properties with a "Walk Score" of 80 have market values as much as 54% higherthan otherwise comparable properties with a 20"Walk Score." 17

While an abundant supply of housing optionsexists within larger urban centers, there remainstremendous scarcity of more intimate walkableneighborhoods associated with suburbandowntowns or the boutique city.

DEMAND FOR WALKABLE NEIGHBORHOODSINCREASESAfter more than a century of suburbanization inAmerica, it is unlikely the significantinfrastructure investment in the suburbs will beabandoned in favor of central cities. Given thecurrent realities of a failing infrastructure in alarge number of central cities, coupled withneighborhood abandonment and decliningemployment, it is further unlikely that centralcities alone can support the household growthforecast for the nation. Perhaps moresignificantly, the preferences for walkableneighborhoods ranges from households whichare most comfortable in a small-scale suburbandowntown to those that would feel stifled inanything other than a world-class urban center.While numerous options exist for those whoseek to live in a large urban environment, the

16Leinberger. Christopher. The Option of Urbanism:Investing in a New American Dream, Washington D.C.:Island Press, 2007. 17Pico, Gary and Jeffrey D. Fisher. "The WalkabilityPremium in Commercial Real Estate Investments".Working Paper, Responsible Properly Investing Center.University of Arizona. Benecki Center for Real EstateStudies, Indiana University. Feb. 2010.

development community has not come close tomeeting the market demand for more intimateurban settings, epitomized by boutique cities.This will lead to significant growth potential forthe suburban downtown development market.

Two-thirds of the demand for walkableneighborhoods will be satisfied in the suburbs,according to Christopher Leinberger of theBrookings Institution. 18

Thus, while a segment of the market will chooseto live in existing large central city downtownssuch as New York, Chicago or Boston, anothersegment, sometimes overlapping with the first,

could also be accommodated within walkable,suburban downtowns, especially those locatedalong transit lines. This potential has been sowidely recognized that Time Magazine hascalled retrofitting suburbia with walkable,mixed-use development one of the "ten ideaschanging the world." 19

18 Broberg, Brad. "Walking into the Future: The marketshows homeowners are interested in smart growthliving." On Common Ground. Winter 2010. 19 Walsh, Bryan. "Recycling the Suburbs." Time Magazine.Mar. 12, 2009.


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MASS TRANSIT: AN ASSETAlthough one hallmark of today's preferredliving environment is walkability, the ultimateneighborhood for many is transit-served,thereby allowing households to reduce

dependence on the automobile and potentiallylive without owning a motor vehicle at all. Thiscan be an important consideration for cost-sensitive households, particularly youngprofessionals and the elderly who no longerdrive. The emerging desirability of transit-oriented housing gives added support for theextension of the nation's rail transit system.

Oftentimes, the best location for commuter rail

stations are our nation's existing downtownswhich contain a level of infrastructure and thepotential for significant densities of residential and commercial uses to support the expansionof rail service.

According to a 2009 study by The ConcordGroup, a real estate and land use researchorganization, about 81% of Generation Yrespondents (millennials) felt it was "very orsomewhat important" to live near alternativemodes of transit. The study also showed that67% of respondents would pay a premium tolive closer to alternative modes of transit intheir next residence. 20

Transit growth is likely to accelerate over thenear term, spurred by the billions of federaldollars expected to flow into our nation's railsystems, with more than $8 billion allocated tohigh speed lines alone in 2011. Furthermore, the

Obama Administration recently announced agoal of investing $53 billion on high speed raillines over the next 25 years.

20 McMahon, Edward T. How will Housing Evolve."Urban Land, Nov/Dec. (2009): 84-85.

The combination of growing demand andexpanded investment will yield dramaticincreases in the numbers of households livingwithin a half-mile radius of the 3,341 existingand 630 proposed new transit stations across

the country. The amount of housing in transitzones is poised to double by 2025, potentiallyaccommodating approximately six millionadditional households. 21

COMPACT, MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENTS AREMORE FISCALLY EFFICIENTSince the landmark 1974 Costs of Sprawl study,hundreds of studies have examined the benefitsand disadvantages of the highly-segmented,separated-use development model. The fiscalimpact of compact development ranges from acost savings of 3.5-6.9%. 22 One specific study inthe six-county Chicago region, projectedcompact development's fiscal impact costsavings to be 45% or $3.7 billion over 20 years. 23

A specific study in the five-countyCharlottesville, Virginia area determined thatcompact development would save 50% or $500million in transportation infrastructure costsalone over 50 years. 24

There is no better example of compact mixed-use development than downtown, walkableneighborhoods, where existing street grids and existing infrastructure and efficiency in providingservices offer the necessary foundation for compact, mixed use development.

21Hidden in Plain Sight. Reconnecting America, Center forTransit-Oriented Development. Sept. 2004. 22Burchell, Robert W., et al. The Costs of SprawlRevisited. National Research Council. Washington DC,National Academy Press. 199.8 23The Metropolis Plan: Choices for the Chicago Region."Chicago Metropolis 2020. Chicago. 2002. 24Building Livable Communities: Jefferson Area EasternPlanning Initiative." Thomas Jefferson Planning DistrictCommission. Charlottesville, Virginia. N.D.


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A further consideration influencing settlementpatterns are the areas of health and safety.Police as well as EMS (emergency responders)consistently report a diminished effectivenessand cost efficiency in areas dominated by

arterials and cul-de-sacs. According to a recentstudy of EMS response times, "sprawl issignificantly associated withincreased EMS response time anda higher probability of delayedambulance arrival followingmotor-vehicle crashes in theU.S." The results suggest thatcommunity design adhering tosmart-growth principles mayimprove EMS performance andreliability. 25

Additionally, both driver and pedestrian safetyare at higher risk in areas with arterial/cul-de-sac road patterns. An analysis of 20,000 policeaccident reports in Longmont, Coloradorevealed a strong correlation between streetwidth and accidents. As streets become wider,accidents per mile per year increasesexponentially; the safest residential streetwidths are those that are the narrowest. 26

LONG ISLAND, NEW YORK: A CASE STUDYNew York's Long Island, including the boroughsof Brooklyn and Queens, reflects nearly thecomplete history of American residentialdevelopment. As such, it is in many ways a casestudy of the growth in suburban sprawldevelopment, the negative impacts associated

with sprawl and the opportunities that presentthemselves for revitalization and transit

25Trowbridge, Matthew J., et al, Urban Sprawl andDelayed Ambulance Arrival in the U.S." The AmericanJournal of Preventive Medicine. 37.5 (2009): 428-432. 26Swift, Peter, et al. "Residential Street Typology andInjury Accident Frequency." June, 1997.

oriented development within our nation'ssuburban downtowns.

The era of sprawl is coming to an end, in partdue to the fiscal strains associated with singleuse development.

Its history starts with NewYork City's first suburb,Brooklyn Heights; includesthe nation's first post-warsuburb, Levittown, andextends to the more recentsingle-use development inthe exurbs of Suffolk County.

Long Island is connected viaone of the best commuter based mass transitsystems to the world-class city of Manhattan.However, like many mature suburban regions, itis dominated by single-family detached housesand has a relative lack of downtown or walkableneighborhood options, thus contributing to analarming departure of more than 122,000 youngprofessionals between the ages of 25-44 from2000-2006, according to the Long IslandAssociation. 27

The startling exodus of its young workforce(ages 25-44) has prompted officials toexamine a different pattern of growth and development, opening an opportunity toredevelop Long Island's existing downtowns and to create new mixed-use, walkable centers in itsexisting suburbs

From 2000-2008, the number of young adults onLong Island ages 25-34 declined from 12.8% to10%, representing a much greater decline thanthe U.S. average. The Long Island Index 2010

27Reid J. Epstein. "Suffolk lawmaker links affordablehousing, land." Newsday Nov. 28, 2007.


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Report states, "This age cohort should increasein future years due to an increase in birth ratesfollowing the 1974-1983 decade in whichcurrent 25-34 year-olds were born. However,whether this occurs, and to what degree, will

depend on the availability of employmentopportunities and suitable housing options foryoung adults beginning their careers andfamilies." 28 In a 2009 survey of Long Islands 18-34 year olds, 67% said they are somewhat orvery likely to move away from Long Island in thenext decade. 29

The out-migration of youngerLong Island householdshighlights the fate of a regionwhere the supply of housingin downtowns and walkableneighborhoods falls far shortof demand a conditionmirrored in numerous othermature suburban regionsacross the nation. Those whoprefer urban living havemoved, or will move awayfrom Long Island to locationswhere downtown living is anavailable option.

The desire for a more urbanlifestyle extends beyondyoung professionals, as a majority of LongIslanders age 50 and older would prefer to livein a neighborhood where homes are closetogether and local stores are within walkingdistance, rather than one where homes are

spread out and driving is required. One third of Long Island residents would prefer anapartment, townhouse or condo; however, 82%percent of housing units on the Island are

28"2010 Long Island's Changing Population." Long IslandIndex. (2010). 292009 Long Island Index.

detached. A surprisingly number of LongIslanders more than 63% - support anincreased number of rental apartments in somedowntown areas, near train and bus service. 30

From a number of important perspectives, LongIsland, like other mature suburbs within thenations mega-regions, is well positioned tocapture the potential market for housing indowntowns and walkable neighborhoods. LongIsland has transit infrastructure that connects anumber of its existing downtowns to New YorkCity and its downtowns are well-suited to

absorb large scale mixed-use development anchoredby new urban housingoptions. According to theLong Island Index, LongIsland's existing downtownscould accommodate at least100,000 additional housingunitsone-half of theprojected housing neededover the next 25 years.

In addition to satisfying agrowing market demand,downtown and neighbor-hood redevelopment willalso provide housingoptions for Long Island's

workforce, enabling Long Island to remaincompetitive in the years to come. However,should Long Island's workforce not be offeredopportunities for appropriate housing, acontinued population flight could create a fiscal

disaster for a region already saddled with someof the nation's highest real estate taxes.

30"Fact Sheet on Downtown Development." Long IslandIndex, (2008).


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"Downtowns are the key to Long Island'ssurvival... Moreover, an overwhelming majority of public opinion supports redevelopingwalkable, sustainable downtown centers that are crucial to creating new homes and jobs." 31

"As a priority, we need to take specific action tostop the loss of our best and brightest youngentrepreneurs who seek to live anywhere buthere. We can't sustain the 30% loss of our 25-34year olds we experienced over the past nineyears; they are the very ones with newentrepreneurial vigor." 32

AN UNDERSERVED MARKET FOR DOWNTOWNSAND WALKABLE NEIGHBORHOODSA new housing paradigm is emerging across thecountry as a result of many factors including:

the rapid growth in the number of singleand two-person households;

the steady increases in commuting costsas measured in both money and time;

the growing desirability of transit-servedlocations; and

the adoption by many Americans of amore urbane lifestyle.

This combination of factors has led tounprecedented market potential for living indowntowns and walkable, mixed-useneighborhoods within suburban, boutique cities

31Golob, Ann quoted by Ellis Henican. "Itching for aDowntown Life", Newsday, Jan. 23, 2008. 32Rechler. Scott. "Opinion: New LI Leaders, Our Problem isYour Problem Now." Newsday. Jan, 6, 2010:http://nvw.newsday.com/opinIoIVoped/opsnion.new.li.leaders.our.economy_is.your.problem.now1 .1687889

a potential that far exceeds the existingsupply.

The market desire for walkability extends acrossa broad range of urban conditions, from first-

tier cities to suburban town centers.

Market preference and development capacity point to a greater likelihood of new mixed-useconstruction occurring in suburban downtownslocated on transit lines tied to major cities.

As in most of the nation's cities, suburbandowntowns have existing infrastructure in whichthey are served by utilities, water and sewer,

and street networks. Many have transit linesthat already exist or that could be re-established.

The challenges and complexities of downtownredevelopment are great. They require arevitalization of existing suburban downtownswhich frequently have not had significantresidential density. To remain economicallycompetitive and culturally attractive,municipalities will need to explore new andinnovative ways to redevelop their downtownsinto mixed-use, walkable communities, whilethe development and real estate investmentindustry must adapt to new market realities.The implementation of the new developmentmodel based around large scale revitalization of our nations suburban downtowns will alsonecessitate a development team thatunderstands the many complexities associatedwith such revitalization efforts.

A change in vision could define a development model which meets the tremendous pent-updemand for downtown, boutique city livingtoday and for the next 60 years.


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The fiscal and broad societal benefits in meetingthe market demand for walkable neighborhoodswill be significant and enduring. Much asWilliam Levitt, creator of Levittown, had a visionof a new development model that was in

tremendous demand after World War II, leadingto a 60 year development pattern based uponsuburban sprawl, so too does the present affordus an opportunity for an alternative to suburbansprawl.

CONCLUSIONIn the era following World War II, a powerful setof forces transformed Americans from a nationof urban/city dwellers to that of a suburbanlifestyle, requiring the use of an automobile andan abundance of parking. In large part, post-warsuburban growth evolved as a result of the 80million baby boomers born during 1946-1964 33.In 1940, only 15% of the nations populationlived in metro areas outside of the central cities.By 2000, that percentage had quadrupled to60%.34

This dramatic increasein population combinedwith the inception of the interstate highwaysystem resulted in amove to the suburbs,followed by adeterioration, andoften-times abandon-ment, of the urban andfirst-ring centers.

Today, the new forces influencing urbanizationhave the power to significantly transform the

33Population Reference Bureau:http://www.prb.org/Articles/2002/JustHowManyBabyBoomersAreThere.aspx34Burchell, Robert W., et al. The Costs of Sprawl Revisited.National Research Council. Washington DC, NationalAcademy Press. 1998.

American landscape yet again. Some of thesefactors include:

Radically changing household compositionfrom the larger family to a shift to the one

and two-person household;

A change in lifestyles and marketpreferences;

Steadily-increasing energy costs;

Continued fiscal constraints at every level of government;

Desire for "triple bottom line" (TBL or3BL) redevelopment, which refers to"people, planet, profit" and captures anexpanded set of criteria for measuringsuccess; not just counting economics, butalso impacts on ecological and socialvalues. 35

Reurbanization will notonly strengthen andrevitalize larger centralcities it could alsofundamentally change thecharacter of the builtenvironment within metroareas outside of the centralcities, i.e., the suburbs.Suburban centers, espe-cially suburban downtownslocated along transit lines,could see dramatic

urbanization during the first half of the 21stcentury, resulting in a shift for a significantpercentage of the population to downtowns andwalkable, mixed-use neighborhoods.

35http://bellinghamstertalk.blogspot.com/2009/07/triple-bottom-line-what-does-tbl-mean.html


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Renaissance Downtowns LLC RenaissanceDowntowns is the nations branded leader forthe holistic and comprehensive redevelopmentof our nations suburban downtowns, or

boutique cities. Led by a triple bottom linephilosophy of social, economic andenvironmental responsibility, Renaissance hasdeveloped an innovative Unified DevelopmentApproach that combines a Public PrivatePartnership and partnerships with localproperty owners with an inclusiveredevelopment methodology to provide for the

implementation of large scale, mixed-use transit oriented redevelopments.

Community Involvement Brandon Palanker, Vice President of Marketing and Public Affairs forRenaissance Downtowns, participates in a youth outreach forum atDowling College.

Expert Leadership


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Documents

RD Market for Downtowns and Walkable Neighborhoods 2011-2