TNS Media Intelligence Campaign Media Analysis Group April 12th 2007 Television Bureau of...

TNS Media Intelligence Campaign Media Analysis Group

April 12th 2007

Television Bureau of AdvertisingAnnual Marketing Conference

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Overview

2007

Backdrop

State and Local Spending

2007 Presidential Impact

2008 Outlook

What to Watch

Looking Ahead

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TNS Media Intelligence 2007 an “Off (the charts) Year”

The Backdrop

2007 is year 3 of the political “business cycle”

On-track to surpass previous off-year spending

Ad spending historically has been driven by state and local races during the 1st & 2nd quarters with localized Presidential Primary ad spending by the 3rd and 4th quarters

Record Fundraising

- BCRA’s “built-in” annual 10% increase

Robust Issue Advocacy Climate

- State and Federal

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2007Ad Spending State and Local Politics

Mayors

Over 1000 Mayors Races Nationwide from Aberdeen (WA) to Zion (IL)

1st Quarter 2007 - $7.7 million in TV ad spending (Over $19 million spent in 2003)

TV Driven Cities: Chicago, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Houston, Dallas, Kansas City

Governors

2003 spending over $18 million

Kentucky, Louisiana & Mississippi

1st Quarter 2007 $1.2 million

Full Primary fields in KY and now LA

Post-Katrina Gulf Coast political climate likely to get national attention and money

2008 Races on the air in 2007

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2007 Ad Spending State and Local Politics

More Down Ballot Races Using Ads

State and Local Races

State Judges continue to gain in ad spending: over $2 million spent in 1st quarter WI race

Ballot Measures

Special Elections

State Issue Ad Campaigns

$21.3 Million Spent in 1st Quarter 2007

- Healthcare – NY, CA, CT, IA, WV, OK- Local Issues – VA, IA, FL, UT- Education – IA, NY- Telecommunications - 8-10 States considering new legislation or

regulation in 2007 (TN, FL, GA, WI & IL

currently running ads)

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2007 Ad Spending The 2007 Presidential Race

Both Democrats and Republicans Have 3 Tiers of Candidates:

- Tier 1 – “In it to win it” - Capable of raising $60-$100+

million in 2007, will have paid staff in a dozen or more states and likely will spend $15-40+ million on ads before February 2008.

- Tier 2 – “Most likely to drop out of the race before running ads”- Potential to raise $20-$50

million, paid staff in 4-9 States and likely to spend $10+ million on ads

- Tier 3 – “Just in it”- Will spend a combined $2-

$15million on ads

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2007 Ad Spending The 2007 Presidential Race

The Landscape

The Primary Calendar is Compacted Tremendous Tuesday! CA, FL, NJ, NC and others are moving up to 2/5/2008, ending the nomination process by this time next year

State movement will likely impact paid media strategy (Timing, Markets, Media Outlets)

Inventory will be a greater issue in early states (IA, NH, SC)

Ad Spending

Candidates and Groups Spent a Combined $1 million in the 1st Quarter 2007

Likely to see “battleground” media markets

527s Likely to play a “significant” supporting role -- Groups will seek to “swift boat” front-runners and extend resources of the front runners

Movement driven groups using ads to piggyback onto the media coverage

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What To WatchPolitical Calendar

- Primary movement likely to place a greater importance on IA, NH, NV and SC for Tiers 1 & 2

- As more states move up their Primary dates a move to Dec 07 is possible in IA and NH

- Primary ad spending for House and Senate races will likely appear in 2007

Political Climate & Media Strategy

- More Internet spending, but still a drop in the bucket compared to TV ad spending

- More Net Cable than 2004 - Cable and Radio should also see gains- YouTube and other “Homemade” spots will be

used as fundraising and buzz generation tools- Front runners will dictate the importance of the

early states- A late entry (or two) and vote by mail and early

voting states could alter campaigns’ media strategy

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Looking Forward 2008

Steady fundraising and the potential of well-funded third party candidates likely means no post-nomination lull in ad spending

2008: replay of 2004 with 15-20 battleground states, likely many of the same states from 2004

Ad Spending will Surpass 2003-2004 totals

1/3 of the Senate up in 2008 (majority are held by Republicans) and US House races will likely replicate 2006 non-Presidential spending

11 states holding Governors races in 2008, several states expected to overlap the Presidential battleground

Probable Perfect Storm States: Colorado, North Carolina, West Virginia, Washington, Missouri, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Maine and Minnesota

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Stay Tuned

Thank you

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