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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Tier 1 Water BudgetCTC SPC Meeting # – Agenda Item # August 11, 2008Gayle SooChan, P.Geo.Director, Groundwater Resources, CLOCA
CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Presentation Overview• Background
• CLOSPA Study Area & Source of Municipal Drinking Water Supplies
• Water Budget Questions & CLOSPA Water Budget Strategy
• Conceptualized flow setting in CLOSPA
• Tier 1 Objectives & Approach
• Tier 1 Water Budget revised results
• Peer Review Comments
• Next Steps & Timelines
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
4
CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
The questions to be answered: • Where is the water? Hydrologic components
• How does the water move? Determine the Flow paths
• Quantify the Water Budget components
• What and where are the stresses on water availability? (Demand, natural, climate)
• What are the trends? (increasing or declining)
• Tiered Approach• Southern Ontario: Minimum
Tier 1 (growth/consistency)
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
CLOSPA Water Budget Strategy:Conceptual Water Budget
Acquire and synthesize data, identify/address key gaps (SWP)
Develop conceptual understanding (including preliminary calculations) (SWP)
Tier 1 Water Budget
Couple existing numerical models for spatial resolution, undertake refined calculations, stress assessment, check SPA borders - Tier 1 Analysis – Sub-watershed (SWP)
Future Water Budget Work
Establish watershed targets/conduct scenario testing (ORMCP/YPDT/C.A.)
Monitor to refine and validate conceptual/numerical model (SWP/ORMCP/C.A.)
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Predominantly groundwater recharge
Predominantly groundwater discharge
Conceptual Flow Model
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Tier 1
• Objectives:• Define the link between the shallow and deep flow systems• Refine quantification of Water Budget components (spatial
distribution – evapotranspiration, recharge) • Refine Supply and Demand by watershed (data/model)• Understand the inflow and cross boundary flow components (resolve
flow gauge disparity)• Determine Significant Recharge Areas• Perform stress assessment• Edge-match with adjoining SPA’s• Build cutting edge tools for other water management program
areas
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
PRMS: USGS Recharge model● Integrates climate, land use and
surficial geology ● Outputs ET, RO and GWI on a daily
basis (20 year)
MODFLOW: USGS GW Flow Model● Outputs GW Discharge/ Water Table
Tier 1 work : Cutting Edge Coupled Models
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
YPDT EAST GW MODFLOW MODELGrid:100mx100m
PRMS Coupled SW ModelGrid: 25mx25m
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Recharge (mm/yr)
SigSignificant Groundwater Recharge
Key PRMS Outputs
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Stream Flux - CLOCA
"02HC028"
MODFLOW Outputs
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Water Demand
Surface Water Takings
Groundwater Takings
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
% Water Demand= Demand \ (Supply-Reserve)Demand: Estimated average annual & monthly consumptive demandSupply: GW- Average Annual Recharge + lateral inflow,
SW median monthly flowReserve: GW – calculated % of GW discharge,
SW lower decile of monthly flow
<20 % Low
20% - 50% Moderate
> 50%Significant
Maximum Monthly % Water Demand
Surface Water Quantity Stress Level Assignment
0-25%0-10%Low
>25%>10%Moderate
>50%>25%Significant
MonthlyMaximum
AverageAnnual
GroundwaterQuantity StressAssignment
All Scenarios Thresholds
Stress Assessment:
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Annual GW Stress Analysis(all flow rates in m3/s)
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Monthly Surface Water Stress Assessment(all flow rates in m3/s)
Surface Water Stress Assessment based on QP50 and QP90
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Peer Review Comments: on Draft Tier 1 (February 2008)
• Peer Review Team : Municipality, Papadoupolos & Associates, Dr. R. Gerber, TCC, LSGB, TRCA, MNR, MOE-CR, SPC - prelim
• In our opinion, this is an excellent report that provides a solid framework for those charged with managing water-resources in the CLOCA area.
• In our opinion, the analyses have been conducted to a high technical standard.
• Peer Reviewers main suggestions for revisions were associated with advanced but unique methodologies in determination of stress. The study team was directed to revise the document to ensure provincial consistency in results.
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Director’s Rules – Changes to Tier 1
• Reporting scale – The area for assessment should be responsibly chosen on to provide meaningful stress assessment results. Minimum quaternary scale.
• The province has recognized that the delineated High Volume Recharge Areas (HVRA's) generally overlay the areas of recharge that support the 'natural features' in the watershed. There is therefore no longer a requirement to define Significant Groundwater Recharge Areas (SGRA's) separately to High Volume Recharge Areas.
• Climate change. There is now a requirement to add some qualitative text about potential effects of climate change. No technical analyses required at Tier 1 level (at this time).
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
TimelinesPast Work
Tier 1 initiated 2006 Tier 1 / Stress Assessment Draft Report – Internal Review/revisions: Oct07-Feb08Tier 1 Peer Review Team meeting: 28 Feb08 Comments received from Peer Review team
CurrentRevisions in progress (delay for Director’s rules and TOR development) Current target for revised report completion date: end of August 08
Next StepsDistribute to SPC: August 08 Obtain Peer Review sign-off : Oct 08Obtain SPC approval: Nov 08 END SWP WB work in CLOSPA
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Decision Sought
• THAT the CTC SPC approve at their November meeting the Tier 1 Water Budget Report as the input to the water budget section of the Assessment Report for CLOSPA
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Additional Information
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Water Demand Results
Total Water Demand Summary
Watershed NameTOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
m3/sec m3/day m3/sec m3/day m3/sec m3/dayLynde Creek Watershed 0.0984 8,501.1 0.0997 8,617.5 0.04824 4,167.6 Pringle Creek Watershed 0.0043 367.6 0.0043 368.3 0.00000 - Corbett Creek Watershed 0.0001 9.5 0.0002 14.8 0.00000 - Goodman Creek Watershed 0.0009 75.2 0.0009 75.4 0.00135 116.6 Oshawa Creek Watershed 0.0297 2,565.1 0.0306 2,641.7 0.00687 593.4 Harmony Creek Watershed 0.0095 816.8 0.0099 858.1 0.00000 - Farewell Creek Watershed 0.0100 867.1 0.0105 908.6 0.00000 - Robinson Creek Watershed 0.0023 202.3 0.0024 203.5 0.00000 - Tooley Creek Watershed 0.0038 324.2 0.0039 337.4 0.00000 - Black Creek Watershed 0.0062 537.4 0.0065 558.0 0.00000 - Darlington Creek Watershed 0.0149 1,289.0 0.0154 1,328.7 0.00309 266.6 Bowmanville Creek Watershed 0.0239 2,064.7 0.0253 2,187.4 0.00154 133.3 Westside Creek Watershed 0.0015 125.7 0.0015 126.1 0.00000 - Soper Creek Watershed 0.0170 1,472.9 0.0176 1,524.3 0.01333 1,151.9 Bennett Creek Watershed 0.0018 153.3 0.0018 155.2 0.00000 - Lake Ontario Watersheds 0.0032 272.7 0.0032 277.6 0.61587 53,210.9
Totals: 0.2274 19,644.6 0.2336 20,182.6 0.69028 59,640.3
Current GW Demand Future GW Demand Current SW Demand
Summary of Permitted Groundwater UsageUsage Consumption Consumption
m^3/s m^3/dayConcrete Plant / Drinking 0.000187 16.193
Dewatering 0.011476 991.534Golf Course Irrigation 0.045569 3937.181
Maintenance 0.000024 2.069Other- Commercial 0.000188 16.214
Snowmaking 0.034730 3000.678Water Supply 0.000009 0.737
Summary of Permitted Surface Water UsageUsage Consumption Consumption
m^3/s m^3/dayField and Pasture Crops 0.003085 266.521
Fish Hatchery and Rearing 0.000766 66.204Fruit Orchards 0.001542 133.260
Golf Course Irrigation 0.023304 2013.497Industrial 0.051117 4416.541Irrigation 0.007536 651.133
Market Gardens 0.001735 149.918Municipal 0.562192 48573.370
Remediation 0.000964 83.288Snowmaking 0.032993 2850.625
Tender Fruit Irrigation 0.003085 266.521Water level control 0.001208 104.403
Wildlife Conservation 0.000602 51.972
Water Demand: PTTW
Permitted Takings by Watershed and Type
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Annual GW Stress Analysis – Table Results(all flow rates in m3/s)
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Moderate
Stress Level
2.850.02390.08160.91990.30500.6149Bowmanville Creek
3.760.00150.00130.04000.02200.0180Westside Creek
2.970.01700.04070.61520.20000.4152Soper Creek
3.820.00180.00180.04820.02100.0272Bennet Creek
1.790.00320.00860.18470.11000.0747Lake Catchments
16.970.01490.00430.09220.02200.0702Darlington Creek
3.440.00620.01060.19130.06700.1243Black Creek
6.300.00380.00280.06230.02000.0423Tooley Creek
6.890.00230.00040.03430.01500.0193Robinson Creek
4.000.01000.01680.26770.11000.1577Farewell Creek
3.950.00950.01750.25660.08100.1756Harmony Creek
4.120.02970.06500.78620.19700.5892Oshawa Creek
1.480.00090.00240.06120.01500.0462Goodman Creek
0.190.00010.00410.06330.01700.0463Corbett Creek
2.980.00430.01060.15350.04200.1115Pringle Creek
12.140.09840.06790.87850.20200.6765Lynde Creek
% Water DemandQDemandQReserveQSupplyQINQRechargeWatershed
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CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Monthly Groundwater Stress Assessment(all flow rates in m3/s) – Table Results
% Water Demand
2
4
3
4
3
24
3
6
7
4
4
5
1
0
3
11
Jul
2
4
3
4
3
24
3
6
7
4
4
5
1
0
3
11
Aug
2
4
3
4
3
24
3
6
7
4
4
5
1
0
3
10
Sep
2
4
3
4
3
24
3
6
7
4
4
5
1
0
3
10
Oct
2
4
3
4
3
24
3
6
7
4
4
4
1
0
3
15
Nov
1
4
3
4
3
4
3
6
7
3
3
3
1
0
3
15
Dec
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
StressLevel
333333Bowmanville Creek
444444Westside Creek
333333Soper Creek
444444Bennet Creek
222111Lake Catchments
242424444Darlington Creek
333333Black Creek
666666Tooley Creek
777777Robinson Creek
444333Farewell Creek
444333Harmony Creek
554333Oshawa Creek
111111Goodman Creek
000000Corbett Creek
333333Pringle Creek
11118151515Lynde Creek
JunMayAprMarFebJanWatershed
24
CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Monthly Groundwater Stress Assessment(all flow rates in m3/s)
25
CTC Source Protection RegionCTC Source Protection Region
www.ctcswp.ca
Made possible through the support of the Government of Ontario
Monthly Surface Water Stress Assessment(all flow rates in m3/s) Table Results
% Water Demand
19300
0
207
0
6
185
0
0
0
0
0
49
92
0
0
134
Jul
32505
0
286
0
5
514
0
0
0
0
0
58
135
0
0
89
Aug
4751
0
25
0
2
37
0
0
0
0
0
12
15
0
0
21
Sep
2296
0
3
0
1
16
0
0
0
0
0
4
7
0
0
9
Oct
815
0
1
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
8
Nov
851
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
16
Dec
NA
Low
Significant
Low
Low
Significant
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
Significant
Significant
Low
Low
Significant
StressLevel
311000Bowmanville Creek
000000Westside Creek
58183000Soper Creek
000000Bennet Creek
636721591019669723881Lake Catchments
57189000Darlington Creek
000000Black Creek
000000Tooley Creek
000000Robinson Creek
000000Farewell Creek
000000Harmony Creek
1552000Oshawa Creek
35126400Goodman Creek
000000Corbett Creek
000000Pringle Creek
29102131819Lynde Creek
JunMayAprMarFebJan
Watershed
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