The Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Big5 … · 2019. 9. 13. · 8) United...

The Sim Kee Boon Institute

for Financial Economics (SKBI)

Big5 Survey

Embargoed until 10.30am, 11 September, 2019

Background Information

The SKBI Big5 survey focuses on the multiyear outlook and assessment of the biggest five

economies in the world (in PPP-terms), namely China, Euro Area, India, Japan and United

States.

The Institute, via the Big5 survey and Post-Survey event, seeks to establish a recurrent

platform in Singapore for a diverse group of participants to explore the relevant risks and

opportunities surrounding the global economic landscape.

Should you have any inquiries, please contact Tom Lam (thomaslam@smu.edu.sg) or Dave

Fernandez (dfernandez@smu.edu.sg).

List of Participants (August 2019 Survey):

1) Bank of Singapore

2) DBS Group

3) GIC

4) ING Bank NV

5) Moody’s Investors Service

6) TD Securities

7) UBS

8) United Overseas Bank Group

On balance, our overall interpretation of the multiyear Big5 survey results implies the

following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, China, US, Japan and Euro Area (i.e.,

India’s economy appears to be the least at-risk, while the Euro Area might be the most at-risk).

Broadly, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be tilted to the downside in

2019 and 2020 followed by a more balanced growth environment in 2021. But participants

seem to lean toward a more balanced risk assessment on headline inflation from 2019 through

2021, with the exception of the Euro Area, where a modest majority view greater disinflationary

risks in 2019 and 2020.

Perhaps in light of the growing concerns over policy leeway, participants anticipate

policymakers in Japan to be generally more reluctant on pursuing additional policy stimulus

(monetary and fiscal) at the outset. Although participants appear to view Euro Area

policymakers to be less hesitant on fresh stimulus measures (monetary and fiscal), policy

efficacy might be an increasingly crucial issue going forward.

Takeaways (August 2019 Survey)

1

GDP

Growth

China-Real GDP Growth

No. of participants: 8 No. of participants: 8

Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

2

Euro Area-Real GDP Growth

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

No. of participants: 8 No. of participants: 8

Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey

3

India-Real GDP Growth

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

No. of participants: 8 No. of participants: 8

Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey

4

Japan-Real GDP Growth

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

No. of participants: 8 No. of participants: 8

Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey

5

US-Real GDP Growth

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

No. of participants: 8 No. of participants: 8

Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey

6

GDP Growth

Risk Assessment

Real GDP Growth Risks (2019)

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

7

7

0

1

CN

7

0

1

IN

6

0

2

US

8

0

0

EA

6

0

2

JP

Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.3) The up, down and horizontal arrows denote upside, downside and balanced risks.

CN=China

EA=Euro Area

IN=India

JP=Japan

US=United States

Real GDP Growth Risks (2020)

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

8

7

0

1

CN

4

0

4

IN

7

0

1

US

7

0

1

EA

5

0

3

JP

Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.3) The up, down and horizontal arrows denote upside, downside and balanced risks.

CN=China

EA=Euro Area

IN=India

JP=Japan

US=United States

Real GDP Growth Risks (2021)

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

9

2

0

3

CN

1

0

4

IN

4

0

2

US

2

0

3

EA

2

0

4

JP

Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.3) The up, down and horizontal arrows denote upside, downside and balanced risks.

CN=China

EA=Euro Area

IN=India

JP=Japan

US=United States

CPI

Inflation

China-CPI Inflation

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

No. of participants: 7 No. of participants: 7

Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey

10

Euro Area-CPI Inflation

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

No. of participants: 7 No. of participants: 7

Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey

11

India-CPI Inflation

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

No. of participants: 7 No. of participants: 7

Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey

12

Japan-CPI Inflation

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

No. of participants: 7 No. of participants: 7

Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey

13

US-CPI Inflation

No. of participants: 7 No. of participants: 7

Note: Each dot represents a random participant in the survey

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

14

Inflation

Risk Assessment

Inflation Risks (2019)

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

15

1

0

6

CN

3

0

4

IN

3

0

4

US

5

0

2

EA

3

0

4

JP

Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.3) The up, down and horizontal arrows denote upside, downside and balanced risks.

CN=China

EA=Euro Area

IN=India

JP=Japan

US=United States

Inflation Risks (2020)

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

16

1

0

6

CN

2

1

4

IN

1

2

4

US

4

0

3

EA

1

1

5

JP

Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.3) The up, down and horizontal arrows denote upside, downside and balanced risks.

CN=China

EA=Euro Area

IN=India

JP=Japan

US=United States

Inflation Risks (2021)

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

17

1

1

3

CN

0

3

2

IN

0

2

3

US

1

1

3

EA

1

0

5

JP

Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.3) The up, down and horizontal arrows denote upside, downside and balanced risks.

CN=China

EA=Euro Area

IN=India

JP=Japan

US=United States

Monetary

Policy

Monetary Policy 2019

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

18

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

CN8

0

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

EA8

0

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

IN8

0

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

JP4

4

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

US8

0

0

Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.

CN=China

EA=Euro Area

IN=India

JP=Japan

US=United States

Monetary Policy 2020

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

19

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

CN6

2

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

EA5

3

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

IN4

4

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

JP3

5

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

US7

1

0

Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.

CN=China

EA=Euro Area

IN=India

JP=Japan

US=United States

Monetary Policy 2021

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

20

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

CN1

4

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

EA1

4

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

IN1

2

2

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

JP1

5

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

US1

4

0

Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.

CN=China

EA=Euro Area

IN=India

JP=Japan

US=United States

Fiscal

Policy

Fiscal Policy 2019

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

21

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

CN8

0

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

EA5

2

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

IN6

2

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

JP2

4

2

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

US5

3

0

Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.

CN=China

EA=Euro Area

IN=India

JP=Japan

US=United States

Fiscal Policy 2020

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

22

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

CN6

1

1

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

EA5

2

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

IN3

4

1

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

JP2

5

1

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

US4

4

0

Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.

CN=China

EA=Euro Area

IN=India

JP=Japan

US=United States

Fiscal Policy 2021

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

23

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

CN1

4

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

EA1

4

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

IN0

5

0

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

JP1

4

1

Tighter

Looser

On-hold

US2

3

0

Notes:1) Each figure represents the number of participants.2) The highlighted circle signifies a majority view.

CN=China

EA=Euro Area

IN=India

JP=Japan

US=United States

Business Cycle

Dynamics

Downturn in US, Euro Area & Japan?

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

24

Note: The figures in the respective bar charts denote the number of participants

Business Cycle: China & India

25

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)*4Q-to-4Q basis

Note: The figures in the respective pie charts denote the number of participants

5

3 3

5

“Sharp Slowdown” in China & India?

Source: SKBI Big5 Survey (Aug 2019)

26

Note: The figures in the respective bar charts denote the number of participants