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THE OUTL K FOR THE NORTH AMERICAN ECONOMYFebruary 11th, 2020
Dan NorthChief Economist, Euler Hermes North America
NORTH AMERICAN POWER CREDIT ORGANIZATION, CREDIT CONFERENCEPALM SPRINGS, CA
EULER HERMES: GLOBAL LEADERIN TRADE CREDIT INSURANCE
2
Credit Insurance: Protection against bankruptcy and slow payment losses Safer sales growth in the US or overseas Knowledge to better manage risk Improved borrowing options Credit function support Reduce bad debt reserves Get paid for what you sell
Founded in 1893 AA S&P Rating and A+ AM Best Rating Global leader in credit insurance with 34% market share Offices in 52 countries providing coverage in over 200 foreign markets Backed by blue-chip ownership of the Allianz Group 6,000 employees and 52,000 clients worldwide Insure over $150 Billion in US sales and over $1 Trillion globally. Pay 85,000 claims per year International Risk Database monitors over 85 million companies worldwide
Looking Ahead in 2020
agn
AGENDA
3
Looking Ahead in 2020
01 THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK
02 THE CANADIAN OUTLOOK
03 THE US OUTLOOK
04 TRADE AND TARIFFS
05 CONCLUSIONS
Looking Ahead in 2020
THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK
01
5
World GDP growth 2.7 3.3 3.1 2.5 2.4
United States 1.6 2.4 2.9 2.3 1.6
Latin America -1.1 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.1Brazil -3.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 2.0
United Kingdom 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0
Eurozone members 1.7 2.7 1.9 1.2 1.0Germany 2.1 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.6France 1.0 2.4 1.7 1.2 1.2Italy 1.4 1.8 0.7 0.1 0.4Spain 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.6
Russia 0.3 1.6 2.3 1.1 1.3Turkey 3.2 7.5 2.8 0.1 2.3
Asia 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.4 4.4China 6.7 6.9 6.6 6.2 5.9Japan 0.6 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.9India 8.1 7.1 6.8 5.2 6.0
Middle East 4.9 1.2 1.1 0.5 2.1Saudi Arabia 1.7 -0.7 2.4 0.4 1.2
Africa 1.2 3.2 2.7 1.9 1.8South Africa 0.6 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Global growth to weaken again during thecoming quarters. Some quarters of zero ornegative growth possible, in the US, the UK,Japan, South Korea, Russia and Asianexport hubs.
Sources: IHS, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
GDP, Gross Domestic Product is our broadest measure of economic health. It’s a $ valueof everything produced by the economy, historically grows ~ 3.3% annually.
Recession (two quarters of contraction) or borderline ones (one quarter of contraction) in France, Italy, Germany, the UK, South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and South Africa.
Looking Ahead in 2020
GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST
1.8
can
Looking Ahead in 2020
THE CANADIAN OUTLOOK
02sum
7
THE CANADA SUMMARYLooking Ahead in 2020
Sources: IHS, StatCan, Allianz Research
• Weak consumption• Lack of investment• Manufacturing contraction• BoC too tight, inverted yield curve• Slowing US and global economies• Rising insolvencies
• Hot job market• Low inflation and interest rates• Leading Indicators rebounding• BoC on hold• Housing stabilized• Fiscal stimulus
The NegativesThe Positives
• GDP forecast only 1.7% for both 2019 and 2020.• Downside risks, but things can improve.
gdp
8
THE ECONOMY AND CONSUMERSARE SLOWING
Looking Ahead in 2020
Sources: IHS, StatCan, Allianz Research
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP and Consumption, y/y
Cons1.4%
GDP1.7%
lbr
9
LABOR MARKET STRONG, NEAR RECORD LOWUNEMPLOYMENT BUT JOB GAINS SLOWING
Looking Ahead in 2020
Sources: IHS, StatCan, Allianz Research hsn
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
100120
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Canadian Labor Market, Jobs Created (000s) and the Unemployment Rate
unemployment rate ( R) near record low 5.4%
jobs created (L):H1 247.5kH2 72.8k
10
HOUSING: GOV’T MEASURES (TAXES, MORTGAGERULES)TO COOL MARKET WORKED, NOW REBOUNDING
Looking Ahead in 2020
Sources: IHS, StatCan, CREA, Allianz Research
Home prices, Y/YUnit sales, annualized
rates, 000’sHousing starts, 3 mo ave,
annualized rates, 000’s
mfr
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
CanadaTorontoVancouver
26%
-5%
29%
4%
14%
1%
bubbles
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
160
180
200
220
240problem?
MANUFACTURING IN CONTRACTIONLooking Ahead in 2020
leadSources: IHS, StatCan, Allianz Research
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Manufacturing Inventory/Sales Ratio
highest since the recession
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Manufacturing, y/y
New orders -1%Sales -0.1%
12
LEADING INDICATORS, BUSINESSCONFIDENCE POSITIVE, SLIDING
Looking Ahead in 2020
Sources: IHS, StatCan, Boc, CFIB, Ivey, Allianz Research
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
CFIB >50 stronger in next yearPMI >50 expansion
CFIB Business Barometer, and Ivey PMI
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60 BoC Business Outlook Survey
overall (R)
future sales outlook (l)
boc
13
BUT HOW LONG CAN THE BOC HOLDOUT IN A WORLD OF COMPETITIVE EASING?
Looking Ahead in 2020
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20
US 1.63%
Eur -0.5%
Jpn -0.1%
Aus 0.75%
Can 1.75%
Central Bank Rates
(Note: negative rates don't work)
Sources: Central banks, Haver, Allianz Research us
Looking Ahead in 2020
THE U.S. OUTLOOK
03sum
15low
US SUMMARY; SOME STRONGINDICATORS NOW, BUT FUTURE WORRIES
Looking Ahead in 2020
The near-term outlook is pretty good...• Low interest rates and inflation• Small business confidence• Services strong• Easy financial conditions• Housing market recovering• Consumer confidence high• Income, consumption positive• Strong labor market• Fed cutting rates• GDP forecast positive at 1.6% for 2020
• Consumer worried about future• Income slowing• Fiscal and monetary policy• Labor market slowing• Consumer delinquencies on rise• Manufacturing, transportation in contraction• Corporate profits weak• Several indicators flashing warnings• Bankruptcies rising• Trade war, divided govt, global weakness• GDP forecast only 1.6% for 2020
... but the long-term outlook suggests slowdown
16nfb
GOOD BUSINESS CONDITIONS WITHLOW INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION
Looking Ahead in 2020
Sources: IHS Global Insight, BLS, Allianz Research
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019
Consumer Price Index
CPI core
Inflation
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019
Fed Funds
30 yrmortgage
10-yr
Interest Rates
prime
17gdp
SMALL BUSINESS STILL OPTIMISTICLooking Ahead in 2020
-10
0
10
20
30
40
80
90
100
110
1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
National Federation of Independent Business,Small Business Optimism Survey
overall optimism (L) remains historically high
election
% saying now is a good time to
expand (R) historically high
Sources: IHS Global Insight, National Federation of Independent Business, Allianz Research
18
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
GDP Growth
Looking Ahead in 2020
GDP, LEAD BY SERVICES, HASBEEN POSITIVE (BUT SLIDING).
fin
2.9%
2.3%
1.6%
45
50
55
60
65
70
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
ISM Services (85% of the economy)<50 means contraction
neworders
services
19Sources: IHS Global Insight. FRED, Fed, NBER, Allianz Research
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Net % of Banks Increasing Spreadson Large C&I Loans
Kansas City Fed Financial Stress Index
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
hsn
Looking Ahead in 2020
FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ARE EASY
20mbaSources: IHS Global Insight. BEA, NAR, NAHB, Allianz Research
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2017 2018 2019
TotalPresent SalesExpected SalesTraffic
National Association of Homebuilders Index
Looking Ahead in 2020
HOUSING MARKET RECOVERING
5,000
5,200
5,400
5,600
550
575
600
625
650
675
700
725
750
2017 2018 2019
New & Existing Home Sales3mo ave Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rates
Existing sales (R)
6% y/y
New sales(L) 21% y/y
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
2017 2018 2019
Housing Starts and Permits3mo ave Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rates
Permits;11% y/y
Starts;22% yy
21confSources: MBA, Allianz Research
Looking Ahead in 2020
HOUSING MARKET RECOVERING
22Sources: IHS Global Insight. Conference Board, Allianz Research pce
Looking Ahead in 2020
CONSUMERS 70% OF THE ECONOMY,BUT NERVOUS ABOUT THE FUTURE
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Conference Board Consumer Confidence (down 4/5 months)
present situation
future expectations
175
103
132
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Consumer Confidence survey:future expectations - present situation
shaded areas are recessions -72
23Sources: IHS Global Insight. BEA, BLS, Allianz Research grwt
Looking Ahead in 2020
THE TOTAL SPENDING HAS BEEN HELDDOWN BY WEAK INCOME, WAGE GROWTH
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2016 2017 2018 2019
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures & Disposable Personal Income, y/y % growth rate
long-term ave
tax cut (fiscal stimulus) wearing off,slowing after tax income
consumption
(this will reverse next mo.)
1.8%
2.4%
3.0%
3.6%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Job and Wage Growth, y/y
jobs (L)
wages ( R)
24 indcsSources: IHS Global Insight, BLS, NBER, Allianz Research
Looking Ahead in 2020
AND THAT SLOWING JOBCREATION IS WORRISOME
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
2.0%
2.2%
2.4%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Job Openings Rate and Job Growth y/y
job openingsrate (L)
job growth y/y (R)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Job Growth y/y
latest, 1.4%
25Sources: IHS Global Insight, BLS, NBER, Bloomberg, SF Fed, Allianz Research dbt
Looking Ahead in 2020
ESPECIALLY SINCE OTHER LABOR MARKET INDICATORS ALSO SUGGEST A SLOWDOWN
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1999 2001 2003 2005 2008 2010 2012 2014 2017 2019
Temporary Job Growth, y/y
26Sources: IHS Global Insight, NBER, BEA, Federal Reserve, Allianz Researchmfr
Looking Ahead in 2020
CONSUMER ALSO UNDER A DEBT BURDEN, CREDIT CARD RATES AVE. 17%. DELINQUENCIES RISING.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
$ Delinquent (>90 days) Debt as a% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI)
STUDENTCARDAUTO
$163b
$15b
$15b
$62b
$73b
$61b
0
0 .0 2
0 .0 4
0 .0 6
0 .0 8
0 .1
0 .1 2
0 .1 4
0 .1 6
0 .1 8
0 .2
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019
Non-mortgage interest payments / personal outlays
Looking Ahead in 2020
MANUFACTURING IN CONTRACTION,BUT SMALL SIGNS OF REBOUND
Sources: IHS Global Insight. Census, ISM, Allianz Researchtrns
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Real Business Investment
-0.1% y/y
down 3 straight quarters
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Manufacturing Industrial Production (y/y) andISM Manufacturing Index (<50 is contraction)
mfg industrial production (R)
-1.3% y/y
ISM (L) <505/6 months
temp. rebound?
28Sources: IHS Global Insight. Cass Systems, Association of American Railroads, city ports, Allianz Research yld
Looking Ahead in 2020
TRANSPORTATION INDICATORSLEAD ECONOMY, TURNING DOWN
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Rail FreightCarloadsRail FreightIntermodal Traffic
Railroad Traffic, y/y
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2009 2011 2013 2014 2016 2018 2019
Cass Indexes, Trucking Freight
shipments -8%
rates (L) -3%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Container Shipments12 months y/y%, (Long Beach, LA, NY)
YIELD CURVE, LEADING INDICATORDRIVEN BY FED POLICY
29Source: IHS, Federal Reserve, BEA, Euler Hermes dly
Looking Ahead in 2020
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%19
69
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
Yield spread:10yr-3 mo Treasuries (bps)
Real GDP Growth,Y/Y % Change
The Treasury Yield Curve vs. GDP
average lead about 3-5 qs
30source: IHS, Federal Reserve, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research 5/7
Looking Ahead in 2020
CURVE INVERTED, OR WENT NEGATIVE, BUT NOT IN ISOLATION
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1/18 3/18 5/18 6/18 8/18 10/18 11/18 1/19 2/19 4/19 6/19 7/19 9/19 10/19 12/19 2/20
Treasury Yield Curve, 10 yr - 3mo, bps
September '18: unemployment drops from 3.9% to 3.7%;
blistering ISM; hawkishPowell
Jan 3rd, 15 bps, then wages steady,ISM drops sharply, Powell softens
Fed: done for the year(weak economy)
tradetalksstop
4 hikes in 2018 to slowhot economy and inflation
new tariffs
Fed cuts but not enough
trade fearsease
phase 1 not enough
coronavirus
31sp
Sources: IHS Global Insight., Fed, NBER, Allianz Research
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
-100
-50
0
50
100
6/00 8/00 11/00 2/01
2001 recession
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
-50-25
0255075
100125
4/89 6/89 9/89 12/89 3/90 6/90
1990 - 1991 recession
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
-250-200-150-100
-500
50100150
10/78 1/79 4/79 7/79 10/79 1/80
1980 recession
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
-250-200-150-100
-500
50100150
3/73 4/73 6/73 7/73 9/73
1973 - 1975 recession
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
-100
-50
0
50
100
10/68 2/69 7/69 11/69
1969 - 1970 recession
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
-100
0
100
200
11/05 7/06 4/07 12/07
2007-2009 recession
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91
-500-400-300-200-100
0100200
8/80 10/80 12/80 3/81 5/81 7/81
1981 - 1982 recession
Looking Ahead in 2020
IN 5 OF PAST 7 RECESSIONS, CURVEWENT POSITIVE BEFORE RECESSION
32
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0%
1 2%
1 4%
1 6%
1 8%
2 0%
52
54
56
58
60
Apr-59 Jun-59 Aug-59 Oct-59 Dec-59 Feb-60 Apr-60
1960
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0%
1 2%
1 4%
1 6%
1 8%
2 0%
115
120
125
130
135
140
Jul-80 Sep-80 Nov-80 Jan-81 Mar-81 May-81 Jul-81
1981
warning
warning
warning
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0%
1 2%
1 4%
1 6%
1 8%
2 0%
14
15
16
17
Dec-47 Feb-48 Apr-48 Jun-48 Aug-48 Oct-48
1949
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0%
1 2%
1 4%
1 6%
1 8%
2 0%
23
24
25
26
27
Jul-52 Sep-52 Nov-52 Jan-53 Mar-53 May-53 Jul-53
1953
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0%
1 2%
1 4%
1 6%
1 8%
2 0%
42
44
46
48
50
Aug-56 Oct-56 Dec-56 Feb-57 Apr-57 Jun-57 Aug-57
1957
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0%
1 2%
1 4%
1 6%
1 8%
2 0%
90
95
100
105
Dec-68 Feb-69 Apr-69 Jun-69 Aug-69 Oct-69 Dec-69
1970
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0%
1 2%
1 4%
1 6%
1 8%
2 0%
95
100
105
110
115
120
Nov-72 Jan-73 Mar-73 May-73 Jul-73 Sep-73 Nov-73
1974
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0%
1 2%
1 4%
1 6%
1 8%
2 0%
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Jan-79 Mar-79 May-79 Jul-79 Sep-79 Nov-79 Jan-80
1980
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0%
1 2%
1 4%
1 6%
1 8%
2 0%
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
Mar-00 May-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Jan-01 Mar-01
2001
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0%
1 2%
1 4%
1 6%
1 8%
2 0%
325330335340345350355360365
Jul-89 Sep-89 Nov-89 Jan-90 Mar-90 May-90 Jul-90
1990
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
1 0%
1 2%
1 4%
1 6%
1 8%
2 0%
1,350
1,400
1,450
1,500
1,550
Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-07 Oct-07 Dec-07
2008
earnSources: IHS Global Insight. BEA, NBER, S&P, Allianz Research
warning
warning
warning
Looking Ahead in 2020
THE STOCK MARKET ONLY GAVE A WARNING IN 3 OF 11 PAST RECESSIONS
33
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
pre-tax
after tax
Corporate Profits Before and After Taxes, y/y%
tax cut, fiscal stimulus,wearing off2019 stock market returns
not from the economy……it was all PE expansion
lead
Looking Ahead in 2020
EARNINGS, PROFITS WEAK
34brpt
Looking Ahead in 2020
MORE EVIDENCE OF A COMING SLOWDOWN
Sources: IHS Global Insight. Conference Board, Allianz Research
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
m/m (R) down 4 of past 5 months
Index of Leading Economic Indicatorsy/y (L) lowest
since recession
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
20
40
60
80
100
120
1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019
Index of Leading Indicators
35trd
Looking Ahead in 2020
Sources: IHS Global Insight, US Courts, Allianz Research
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
U.S. Business Bankruptcy Filings, y/y % change
recession ends
9 yrs of falling bruptcies coming to an end
recession
BUSINESS BANKRUPTCIESON THE RISE
Looking Ahead in 2020
TRADE AND TARIFFS
04
37
Looking Ahead in 2020
Sources: . Allianz Research phs
• 20% on Canadian softwood. Prices soar.
• 20% on washing machines, going to 50% after 1.2mil units. Prices rise 15%.
• 30% on solar panels resulting in $2.5b cancelled contracts, 10ks job losses.
• 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium. Steel rose 36% (now down on weak demand)
• 10%-25% tariffs on $7.5B of EU goods
• 100% on $2.4B French goods in February.
TARIFFS SUMMARY
Even after phase 1, most tariffs still in place
38
PHASE 1 TRADE DEAL: IT’S NOTQUITE A “NOTHING-BURGER”
Looking Ahead in 2020
• China agrees to buy an additional $200bn of imports from the US over 2 years. This could be unrealistic as it represents about a 50% increase over 2017 and 2018 levels.
• China pledges to not use coercion, forced technology transfer, or IP theft. But China has said this before and there have been no changes to Chinese law.
• China lowers barriers for US companies going into some Chinese markets.
• US removes 15% tariffs on $160bn of Chinese imports… that were never there in the first place. • US reduces tariffs on the last tranche $120bn from 15% to 7.5%.
• BUT, US keeps in place 25% tariffs on the first $250bn of imports (just under half). • AND, China keeps in place its 5%-25% tariffs on $110bn of US goods.• So the trade “feud” is not over.• Still costing something like 0.3%-0.5% of GDP per year.
cncl
Looking Ahead in 2020
CONCLUSIONS
05
40
US SUMMARY; SOME STRONGINDICATORS NOW, BUT FUTURE WORRIES
Looking Ahead in 2020
The near-term outlook is pretty good... ... but the long-term outlook suggests slowdown• Low interest rates and inflation• Small business confidence• Services strong• Easy financial conditions• Housing market recovering• Consumer confidence high• Income, consumption positive• Strong labor market• Fed cutting rates• GDP forecast positive at 1.6% for 2020
• Consumer worried about future• Income slowing• Fiscal and monetary policy• Labor market slowing• Consumer delinquencies on rise• Manufacturing, transportation in contraction• Corporate profits weak• Several indicators flashing warnings• Bankruptcies rising• Trade war, divided govt, global weakness• GDP forecast only 1.6% for 2020
41
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Looking Ahead in 2020
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