The New Political Battleground - SAMRA · Mbeki's #ANC in 99: 66.35% Mbeki's ANC 2004:...

The New Political Battleground: The South African 2014 National Elections on Twitter Kyle Findlay & Ockert Janse van Rensburg

2

Caveats

Community membership

Time period

Privacy

Why Twitter?

5

6

100%

46% 42%

13% 10% 7% 2%

Total consumer

market

Total social

networkingusers

Facebook Twitter Google+ YouTube Instagram

% belong to

Source: TNS Sunday Times Top Brands Survey 2014

7 Source: http://www.fastcompany.com/3043788/sxsw/twitters-influence-problem-visualized

“BuzzFeed found that

Twitter has a big cascade effect on other social media platforms.

Put simply, it appears that

huge stories often start as tweets,

then get shared by influencers to Facebook and other networks, where the original piece of content subsequently gets far more distribution.”

The data

9

10

IEC, independent electoral commission, sa election, south african election, @elections_sa, #anc, #VoteANC, @MyANC_, @ANC_YOUTH, @SAPresident, @PresidencyZA, @Mgigaba, african national congress, anc, zuma, #DA, @DA_News, @helenzille, @LindiMazibuko, @DA_Youth, @MaimaneAM, @mbalimcdust, democratic alliance, zille, maimane, lindiwe mazibuko, mbali ntuli, #VoteDA, #BelieveGP, #VoteEFF, @EconomicFreedom, @Julius_S_Malema, @EconFreedomZA, malema, dali mpofu, IFP, Inkhatha, Mangosuthu Buthelezi, @TeamCOPESA, @YourCOPE, @TerrorLekota, #COPE, Lekota, @AgangSA, @MamphelaR, Ramphele, Mamphela, Agang, UDM, Bantu Holomisa, United Democratic Movement, @Pieter_Mulder, @VFPlus, Freedom Front Plus, Pieter Mulder, Vryheidsfront, @A_C_D_P, ACDP, African Christian Democratic Party

11

user.location

1,461,909 (3 March – 12 May 2014)

user.time_zone user.lang tweet.lang

12

981,878

popular hashtags popular influencers popular retweets k-means clustering conversation network

Methodology

13

14

15

16

17

18

We ‘clustered’ tweets into topics using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA)

Party momentum

20

21

248

89

25 10 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1

R² = 0.97

ANC DA EFF IFP NFP FF+ UDM ACDP AIC COPE Agang APC PAC

Seats in parliament

22

62%

22%

6%

3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%

38%

25%

13%

3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0%

4% 3% 0% 1%

ANC DA EFF IFP NFP FF+ UDM ACDP AIC COPE Agang APC PAC

Seats in parliament % of media coverage

R=0.95

62% vs. 38%

6% vs. 13%

Source: Media Monitoring Africa Election Coverage 2014, http://elections2014.mediamonitoringafrica.org

23

62%

22%

6%

3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%

55%

22%

14%

1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 4%

ANC DA EFF IFP NFP FF+ UDM ACDP AIC COPE Agang APC PAC

Seats in parliament % Twitter mentions

R=0.99

62% vs. 55%

6% vs. 14%

24 Source: Young-Ho, E, et al. (2015). Twitter-based analysis of the dynamics of collective attention to political parties

25 Source: Young-Ho, E, et al. (2015). Twitter-based analysis of the dynamics of collective attention to political parties

“Despite the many efforts, results are

still inconclusive...”

“We conclude that the tweet volume is

a good indicator of parties' success

in the elections when considered over

an optimal time window.”

Influencers & top content

26

27 Top 20 influencers; influence = # interactions (retweets + mentions)

39,008

34,592

31,481

27,746

12,855

12,764

10,478

10,051

9,602

8,085

7,671

7,629

6,649

6,379

6,364

6,050

5,092

5,031

4,735

4,639

@HelenZille

@MyANC_

@DA_News

@EconfreedomZA

@ANC_Youth

@Julius_S_Malema

@Maimanea

@MbalulaFikile

@AgangSA

@eNCANews

@News24

@LindiMazibuko

@City_Press

@SABreakingNews

@POWER987News

@Sentletse

@EWNReporter

@ChesterMissing

@SAPresident

@TimesLive

28 Top 20 influencers; influence = # interactions (retweets + mentions)

@HelenZille

@MyANC_

@DA_News

@EconfreedomZA

@ANC_Youth

@Julius_S_Malema

@Maimanea

@MbalulaFikile

@AgangSA

@eNCANews

@News24

@LindiMazibuko

@City_Press

@SABreakingNews

@POWER987News

@Sentletse

@EWNReporter

@ChesterMissing

@SAPresident

@TimesLive

29 Top 20 influencers; influence = # interactions (retweets + mentions)

@HelenZille

@MyANC_

@DA_News

@EconfreedomZA

@ANC_Youth

@Julius_S_Malema

@Maimanea

@MbalulaFikile

@AgangSA

@eNCANews

@News24

@LindiMazibuko

@City_Press

@SABreakingNews

@POWER987News

@Sentletse

@EWNReporter

@ChesterMissing

@SAPresident

@TimesLive

30 Top 30 hashtags. Excludes “elections” and “South Africa”-related hashtags

10

6

18 15

21

20

16

29

Author Tweet content # retweets

@justicemalala Mbeki's #ANC in 99: 66.35% Mbeki's ANC 2004: 69.6% Zuma's ANC 2009: 65.9% Zuma's ANC 2014: 62.84

(22.12/08 May) #justsay… 705

@Trevornoah Jacob Zuma is a great. I bet he did this Nkandla thing just to unite all South Africans in a common anger at

corruption. 590

@ProudlySA Congratulations to Deputy President Motlanthe & his beautiful bride, Gugu on their wedding today!! @PresidencyZA

http://t.co… 524

@IECSouthAfrica National Assembly seats: APC–1; PAC–1; AGANG SA–2; ACDP–3; AIC–3; COPE –3; UDM–4; VF Plus–4; NFP–6;

IFP–10; EFF–25; DA–… 490

@helenzille By saying that "only clever people" have problems with R246-mill Nkandla upgrade, Pres Zuma is implying that

ANC voters are… 394

@[] @IECSouthAfrica apparently found in home of ANC party agent. https://t.co/OyoYIvI79Y 346

@alexeliseev Zuma on #Nkandla: "It's not an issue with voters. It's an issue with bright people. Very clever people". What is he

saying… 344

@Sentletse The ANC and the IEC must be ashamed of themselves! http://t.co/STwypvLg8M 342

@IECSouthAfrica I.E.C voting material found at a house of an anc party agent in ward 77 http://t.co/48MAjhqqXE" 326

@[] EFF votes found dumped near Diepsloot cc @Julius_S_Malema @Sentletse @EconFreedomZA with @IECSouthAfrica

stamp http://t.co/mIzvrow… 325

@Julius_S_Malema We will soon announce the date of the march to the union buildings to demand Zuma's resignation as the president 294

@helenzille Monitor the polls!! "@E_van_Zyl_17: "@JohnBiskado: IEC voting material found at house of anc party agent ward

77 http://t.… 289

@MbalulaFikile But you cant use the same BIS bought with NSFAS to tweet "ANC HAS DONE NOTHING". Uxokelani? 280

@GarethCliff Oh no! RT @DonnyDunn: @GarethCliff @KienoKammies IEC integrity obliterated! http://t.co/wILOizXGXm 279

@MbalulaFikile Biggest loser of the century DR Mamphela Ramphela ,u Luzile shameeee 272

@TannieEvita Confusius say: "He who knows nothing about his own house, knows even less about his own country."

@SAPresident 271

@GarethCliff Who told @helenzille it would be a good idea to do this? Will she campaign in blackface next?

http://t.co/TzbwsqgHGL 258

@GarethCliff Even if you didn't vote ANC, they will form your new govt. wishing them luck is wishing the best for all of us. Good

luck … 268

@MaxduPreez Defend this, ANC: Public Works Dept redirected service delivery funds to pay for Nkandla in contravention of

constitution 245

@MbalulaFikile Yet you're on Twitter and can write that in perfect English, let's face it, you're ANC's good story. @lusylooya: ANC

ha… 238

Author Tweet content # retweets

Ballot tampering

Nkandla

Political smack talk Fikile Mbalula and the ANC’s ‘good story’

Election results & well wishing Deputy President Motlanthe‘s wedding

Malema march for Zuma’s resignation

34

35

36

SA elections 2014 conversation map

37

38

39 52% of unique users shown

Black Influencers

EFF

DA (and FF+)

ANC

eNCA & EWN News

International news media

Gareth Cliff & Ulrich J van Vuuren

Comedians

Agang

News24 & TimesLive

SA Breaking News

IEC & PresidencyZA

Mail & Guardian

DJ Sbu

40 85% of tweets generated shown

Black Influencers

EFF

DA (and FF+)

ANC

DA community

41

42 Top influencers ranked on # interactions (retweets + mentions). NOTE: some users with <10k followers not shown for privacy reasons * Username has changed subsequently. Original account hacked?

Mabine Seabe II @Mabine_Seabe

Lindiwe Mazibuko @LindiMazibuko

Helen Zille @helenzille

Democratic Alliance @DA_News

Mmusi Maimane @MaimaneAM*

RSApolitics @RSApolitics

Jacaranda News @JacaNews

ALETTAHA☺

♥☀

@ALETTAHA

ToxiNews @toxinews

Gavin Davis @gavdavis

43 These news media accounts’ content resonated with this community more than any other (most mentions and retweets)

BDlive @BDliveSA

RSApolitics @RSApolitics

Jacaranda News

@JacaNews

ToxiNews @toxinews

Daily Maverick @dailymaverick

44

Nkandla & Zuma corruption

Ballot tampering

Zille pro (e.g. made the party)

Zille against (e.g. Twitter meltdown)

Mazibuko for president

Maimane for president

ANC “good story” (sarcastic)

Summary based on top retweeted content and topic models

45

46

EFF community

47

Redi Tlhabi @RediTlhabi

POWER987 News @POWER987News

EFF Official Account @EconFreedomZA

Julius Sello Malema @Julius_S_Malema

City Press Online @City_Press

Sentletse @Sentletse

SABC News Online @SABCNewsOnline

Ranjeni Munusamy @RanjeniM

Carien du Plessis @carienduplessis

48 Top influencers ranked on # interactions (retweets + mentions)

49 These news media accounts’ content resonated with this community more than any other (most mentions and retweets)

SAfm news @SAfmnews

702 @Radio702

City Press Online

@City_Press

POWER987 News

@POWER987News

SABC News Online

@SABCNewsOnline

50 Summary based on top retweeted content and topic models

Ballot tampering

March for Zuma’s resignation

ANC decline under Zuma

ANC’s “good story” (sarcastic)

Armed Bekkersdal ANC supporter

51

52

Black Influencers community

53

54

Trev

@Tokyo_Trev

Siya @Siya_THATguy*

Khaya Dlanga @khayadlanga

Mayihlome @MTshwete

IG: TaxiDriverSipho @TaxiDriverSipho

Nzinga @NzingaQ

I.G: Questionnier @Questionnier

L’Vovo Derrango @LvovoSA

DJ Lulo Cafe @LuloCafe

Top influencers ranked on # interactions (retweets + mentions). NOTE: some users with <10k followers not shown for privacy reasons * Username has changed subsequently. Original account hacked?

55

N/A

56 Summary based on top retweeted content and topic models

Long live the ANC

ANC’s good story

ANC’s decline under Zuma

No respect for Zuma

Voting ANC (some voting DA)

Congrats to Lindiwe Mazibuko

Zille ‘trying too hard’

Exasperation with EFF (and some support)

57

ANC community

58

59

ANN7 24-hour news @ANN7tv

Malusi Gigaba @mgigaba

ANC Info Feed @MyANC_

ANC Youth League @ANC_Youth*

Fikile Mbalula @MbalulaFikile

ANC-HISTORY @ANC_LECTURES

Vote @MyANC_!!!!! @anccadres

ANC Gauteng @GautengANC

The New Age @The_New_Age

Top influencers ranked on # interactions (retweets + mentions). NOTE: some users with <10k followers not shown for privacy reasons * Username has changed subsequently. Original account hacked?

60 These news media accounts’ content resonated with this community more than any other (most mentions and retweets)

ANN7 24-hour news @ANN7tv

The New Age @The_New_Age

SA Gov News

@SAgovnews

61 Summary based on top retweeted content and topic models

Love ANC

Love Zuma

ANC’s “good story”

Conclusions

62

63

Main constituencies

Media independence

Party momentum

Thank you