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The New Political Battleground: The South African 2014 National Elections on Twitter Kyle Findlay & Ockert Janse van Rensburg
2
Caveats
Community membership
Time period
Privacy
Why Twitter?
5
6
100%
46% 42%
13% 10% 7% 2%
Total consumer
market
Total social
networkingusers
Facebook Twitter Google+ YouTube Instagram
% belong to
Source: TNS Sunday Times Top Brands Survey 2014
7 Source: http://www.fastcompany.com/3043788/sxsw/twitters-influence-problem-visualized
“BuzzFeed found that
Twitter has a big cascade effect on other social media platforms.
Put simply, it appears that
huge stories often start as tweets,
then get shared by influencers to Facebook and other networks, where the original piece of content subsequently gets far more distribution.”
The data
9
10
IEC, independent electoral commission, sa election, south african election, @elections_sa, #anc, #VoteANC, @MyANC_, @ANC_YOUTH, @SAPresident, @PresidencyZA, @Mgigaba, african national congress, anc, zuma, #DA, @DA_News, @helenzille, @LindiMazibuko, @DA_Youth, @MaimaneAM, @mbalimcdust, democratic alliance, zille, maimane, lindiwe mazibuko, mbali ntuli, #VoteDA, #BelieveGP, #VoteEFF, @EconomicFreedom, @Julius_S_Malema, @EconFreedomZA, malema, dali mpofu, IFP, Inkhatha, Mangosuthu Buthelezi, @TeamCOPESA, @YourCOPE, @TerrorLekota, #COPE, Lekota, @AgangSA, @MamphelaR, Ramphele, Mamphela, Agang, UDM, Bantu Holomisa, United Democratic Movement, @Pieter_Mulder, @VFPlus, Freedom Front Plus, Pieter Mulder, Vryheidsfront, @A_C_D_P, ACDP, African Christian Democratic Party
11
user.location
1,461,909 (3 March – 12 May 2014)
user.time_zone user.lang tweet.lang
12
981,878
popular hashtags popular influencers popular retweets k-means clustering conversation network
Methodology
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14
15
16
17
18
We ‘clustered’ tweets into topics using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA)
Party momentum
20
21
248
89
25 10 6 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1
R² = 0.97
ANC DA EFF IFP NFP FF+ UDM ACDP AIC COPE Agang APC PAC
Seats in parliament
22
62%
22%
6%
3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
38%
25%
13%
3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0%
4% 3% 0% 1%
ANC DA EFF IFP NFP FF+ UDM ACDP AIC COPE Agang APC PAC
Seats in parliament % of media coverage
R=0.95
62% vs. 38%
6% vs. 13%
Source: Media Monitoring Africa Election Coverage 2014, http://elections2014.mediamonitoringafrica.org
23
62%
22%
6%
3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
55%
22%
14%
1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 4%
ANC DA EFF IFP NFP FF+ UDM ACDP AIC COPE Agang APC PAC
Seats in parliament % Twitter mentions
R=0.99
62% vs. 55%
6% vs. 14%
24 Source: Young-Ho, E, et al. (2015). Twitter-based analysis of the dynamics of collective attention to political parties
25 Source: Young-Ho, E, et al. (2015). Twitter-based analysis of the dynamics of collective attention to political parties
“Despite the many efforts, results are
still inconclusive...”
“We conclude that the tweet volume is
a good indicator of parties' success
in the elections when considered over
an optimal time window.”
Influencers & top content
26
27 Top 20 influencers; influence = # interactions (retweets + mentions)
39,008
34,592
31,481
27,746
12,855
12,764
10,478
10,051
9,602
8,085
7,671
7,629
6,649
6,379
6,364
6,050
5,092
5,031
4,735
4,639
@HelenZille
@MyANC_
@DA_News
@EconfreedomZA
@ANC_Youth
@Julius_S_Malema
@Maimanea
@MbalulaFikile
@AgangSA
@eNCANews
@News24
@LindiMazibuko
@City_Press
@SABreakingNews
@POWER987News
@Sentletse
@EWNReporter
@ChesterMissing
@SAPresident
@TimesLive
28 Top 20 influencers; influence = # interactions (retweets + mentions)
@HelenZille
@MyANC_
@DA_News
@EconfreedomZA
@ANC_Youth
@Julius_S_Malema
@Maimanea
@MbalulaFikile
@AgangSA
@eNCANews
@News24
@LindiMazibuko
@City_Press
@SABreakingNews
@POWER987News
@Sentletse
@EWNReporter
@ChesterMissing
@SAPresident
@TimesLive
29 Top 20 influencers; influence = # interactions (retweets + mentions)
@HelenZille
@MyANC_
@DA_News
@EconfreedomZA
@ANC_Youth
@Julius_S_Malema
@Maimanea
@MbalulaFikile
@AgangSA
@eNCANews
@News24
@LindiMazibuko
@City_Press
@SABreakingNews
@POWER987News
@Sentletse
@EWNReporter
@ChesterMissing
@SAPresident
@TimesLive
30 Top 30 hashtags. Excludes “elections” and “South Africa”-related hashtags
10
6
18 15
21
20
16
29
Author Tweet content # retweets
@justicemalala Mbeki's #ANC in 99: 66.35% Mbeki's ANC 2004: 69.6% Zuma's ANC 2009: 65.9% Zuma's ANC 2014: 62.84
(22.12/08 May) #justsay… 705
@Trevornoah Jacob Zuma is a great. I bet he did this Nkandla thing just to unite all South Africans in a common anger at
corruption. 590
@ProudlySA Congratulations to Deputy President Motlanthe & his beautiful bride, Gugu on their wedding today!! @PresidencyZA
http://t.co… 524
@IECSouthAfrica National Assembly seats: APC–1; PAC–1; AGANG SA–2; ACDP–3; AIC–3; COPE –3; UDM–4; VF Plus–4; NFP–6;
IFP–10; EFF–25; DA–… 490
@helenzille By saying that "only clever people" have problems with R246-mill Nkandla upgrade, Pres Zuma is implying that
ANC voters are… 394
@[] @IECSouthAfrica apparently found in home of ANC party agent. https://t.co/OyoYIvI79Y 346
@alexeliseev Zuma on #Nkandla: "It's not an issue with voters. It's an issue with bright people. Very clever people". What is he
saying… 344
@Sentletse The ANC and the IEC must be ashamed of themselves! http://t.co/STwypvLg8M 342
@IECSouthAfrica I.E.C voting material found at a house of an anc party agent in ward 77 http://t.co/48MAjhqqXE" 326
@[] EFF votes found dumped near Diepsloot cc @Julius_S_Malema @Sentletse @EconFreedomZA with @IECSouthAfrica
stamp http://t.co/mIzvrow… 325
@Julius_S_Malema We will soon announce the date of the march to the union buildings to demand Zuma's resignation as the president 294
@helenzille Monitor the polls!! "@E_van_Zyl_17: "@JohnBiskado: IEC voting material found at house of anc party agent ward
77 http://t.… 289
@MbalulaFikile But you cant use the same BIS bought with NSFAS to tweet "ANC HAS DONE NOTHING". Uxokelani? 280
@GarethCliff Oh no! RT @DonnyDunn: @GarethCliff @KienoKammies IEC integrity obliterated! http://t.co/wILOizXGXm 279
@MbalulaFikile Biggest loser of the century DR Mamphela Ramphela ,u Luzile shameeee 272
@TannieEvita Confusius say: "He who knows nothing about his own house, knows even less about his own country."
@SAPresident 271
@GarethCliff Who told @helenzille it would be a good idea to do this? Will she campaign in blackface next?
http://t.co/TzbwsqgHGL 258
@GarethCliff Even if you didn't vote ANC, they will form your new govt. wishing them luck is wishing the best for all of us. Good
luck … 268
@MaxduPreez Defend this, ANC: Public Works Dept redirected service delivery funds to pay for Nkandla in contravention of
constitution 245
@MbalulaFikile Yet you're on Twitter and can write that in perfect English, let's face it, you're ANC's good story. @lusylooya: ANC
ha… 238
Author Tweet content # retweets
Ballot tampering
Nkandla
Political smack talk Fikile Mbalula and the ANC’s ‘good story’
Election results & well wishing Deputy President Motlanthe‘s wedding
Malema march for Zuma’s resignation
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35
36
SA elections 2014 conversation map
37
38
39 52% of unique users shown
Black Influencers
EFF
DA (and FF+)
ANC
eNCA & EWN News
International news media
Gareth Cliff & Ulrich J van Vuuren
Comedians
Agang
News24 & TimesLive
SA Breaking News
IEC & PresidencyZA
Mail & Guardian
DJ Sbu
40 85% of tweets generated shown
Black Influencers
EFF
DA (and FF+)
ANC
DA community
41
42 Top influencers ranked on # interactions (retweets + mentions). NOTE: some users with <10k followers not shown for privacy reasons * Username has changed subsequently. Original account hacked?
Mabine Seabe II @Mabine_Seabe
Lindiwe Mazibuko @LindiMazibuko
Helen Zille @helenzille
Democratic Alliance @DA_News
Mmusi Maimane @MaimaneAM*
RSApolitics @RSApolitics
Jacaranda News @JacaNews
ALETTAHA☺
♥☀
@ALETTAHA
ToxiNews @toxinews
Gavin Davis @gavdavis
43 These news media accounts’ content resonated with this community more than any other (most mentions and retweets)
BDlive @BDliveSA
RSApolitics @RSApolitics
Jacaranda News
@JacaNews
ToxiNews @toxinews
Daily Maverick @dailymaverick
44
Nkandla & Zuma corruption
Ballot tampering
Zille pro (e.g. made the party)
Zille against (e.g. Twitter meltdown)
Mazibuko for president
Maimane for president
ANC “good story” (sarcastic)
Summary based on top retweeted content and topic models
45
46
EFF community
47
Redi Tlhabi @RediTlhabi
POWER987 News @POWER987News
EFF Official Account @EconFreedomZA
Julius Sello Malema @Julius_S_Malema
City Press Online @City_Press
Sentletse @Sentletse
SABC News Online @SABCNewsOnline
Ranjeni Munusamy @RanjeniM
Carien du Plessis @carienduplessis
48 Top influencers ranked on # interactions (retweets + mentions)
49 These news media accounts’ content resonated with this community more than any other (most mentions and retweets)
SAfm news @SAfmnews
702 @Radio702
City Press Online
@City_Press
POWER987 News
@POWER987News
SABC News Online
@SABCNewsOnline
50 Summary based on top retweeted content and topic models
Ballot tampering
March for Zuma’s resignation
ANC decline under Zuma
ANC’s “good story” (sarcastic)
Armed Bekkersdal ANC supporter
51
52
Black Influencers community
53
54
Trev
@Tokyo_Trev
Siya @Siya_THATguy*
Khaya Dlanga @khayadlanga
Mayihlome @MTshwete
IG: TaxiDriverSipho @TaxiDriverSipho
Nzinga @NzingaQ
I.G: Questionnier @Questionnier
L’Vovo Derrango @LvovoSA
DJ Lulo Cafe @LuloCafe
Top influencers ranked on # interactions (retweets + mentions). NOTE: some users with <10k followers not shown for privacy reasons * Username has changed subsequently. Original account hacked?
55
N/A
56 Summary based on top retweeted content and topic models
Long live the ANC
ANC’s good story
ANC’s decline under Zuma
No respect for Zuma
Voting ANC (some voting DA)
Congrats to Lindiwe Mazibuko
Zille ‘trying too hard’
Exasperation with EFF (and some support)
57
ANC community
58
59
ANN7 24-hour news @ANN7tv
Malusi Gigaba @mgigaba
ANC Info Feed @MyANC_
ANC Youth League @ANC_Youth*
Fikile Mbalula @MbalulaFikile
ANC-HISTORY @ANC_LECTURES
Vote @MyANC_!!!!! @anccadres
ANC Gauteng @GautengANC
The New Age @The_New_Age
Top influencers ranked on # interactions (retweets + mentions). NOTE: some users with <10k followers not shown for privacy reasons * Username has changed subsequently. Original account hacked?
60 These news media accounts’ content resonated with this community more than any other (most mentions and retweets)
ANN7 24-hour news @ANN7tv
The New Age @The_New_Age
SA Gov News
@SAgovnews
61 Summary based on top retweeted content and topic models
Love ANC
Love Zuma
ANC’s “good story”
Conclusions
62
63
Main constituencies
Media independence
Party momentum
Thank you