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“The most important thing about an investment
philosophy is having one.”
David BoothChairman and Co-Chief Executive Officer
Dimensional Fund Advisors
Structured Investing (also referred to as Efficient Frontier or Asset Class Investing) is an investment approach that draws on the research of some of the academic community’s most innovative and respected thinkers and economists. Structured Investing focuses on asset classes or groups of securities, such as U.S. Large Companies or Emerging Markets, that exhibit similar risk and return characteristics and perform similarly in any given market environment.
Successful investing means not only capturing dimensions that generate expected return but reducing risks that may needlessly compromise performance. Avoidable risks include holding too few securities, betting on countries or industries, following market predictions in areas like interest rate movements, and relying solely on information from third-party analysts or rating services. To all these, diversification is an essential tool to investors.1 It lessens the impact of the random fortunes of individual securities and positions your portfolio to capture the returns of broad economic forces.
Traditionally, investment managers either focus on picking individual securities or hold a basket of many securities designed to track a specific market index. Structured Investing chooses a different path. It structures strategies based on research rather than speculation or commercial indices. As a result, investors achieve more consistent portfolio structure.
1 Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in declining markets
STRUCTURE IS THE STRATEGY
Conventional Management Believes capital markets often misprice securities
Uses forecasting techniques to pick stocks and/or time markets
Generates higher expenses, trading costs and risk from forecasting
Structured InvestingBelieves capital markets work and price securities fairly
Captures specific dimensions of expected returns identified by academic research
Increases returns through portfolio design, implementation and security lending
Minimizes transaction costs and enhances returns through advanced trading and engineering
IndexingBelieves capital markets work and price securities fairly
Allows commercial benchmarks to define strategy
Attempts to deliver target index rate of return
May accept lower returns and increased trading costs in favor of tracking
THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE STRUCTURE
Combining the latest discoveries in economics and investing with more than 80 years of market data and insights as well as in-depth studies of investor psychology and behavior, a Structured Investing approach offers a prudent strategic approach designed to help investors achieve their goals while protecting them against the common behavioral mistakes that can compromise that very achievement.
We believe investment success is primarily the result of portfolio construction and the efficiency of capitalism itself. Therefore, we spend our time actively engineering portfolios rather than selecting securities.
An overview of the recognized achievements attributed to key academics that demonstrates the soundness regarding this approach.
ACADEMIC RESEARCH SUPPORTING STRUCTURED INVESTING
1965Behavior of Securities PricesPAUL SAMUELSONNobel Prize in Economics, 1970
1964Single-Factor Asset Pricing
Risk/Return ModelWILLIAM SHARPE
Nobel Prize in Economics, 1990
1952Diversification and Portfolio RiskHARRY MARKOWITZNobel Prize in Economics, 1990
1981The Size EffectROLF BANZ
1992–1993Value Effectand Multifactor Asset Pricing ModelEUGENE FAMAKENNETH FRENCH
2012ProfitabilityROBERT NOVY-MARXEUGENE FAMAKENNETH FRENCH
1984Variable Maturity Strategy ImplementedEUGENE FAMA
1966Efficient Markets
HypothesisEUGENE FAMANobel Prize in
Economics, 2013
2013Nobel Prize Recognizes Asset Pricing ResearchEUGENE FAMALARS PETER HANSENROBERT J. SHILLER
We believe, and start with the premise that, capital markets work. We use that belief to build portfolios that let the market work for the investor rather than trying to “beat” the market. Numerous studies support the notion that most managers do
not consistently beat the markets.
MARKETS
WORK
Conventional Investment Methods Have Low Odds of Success
Fraction of mutual funds that survived and beat their index for 15 years, ending December 31, 2014
Source: Mutual Fund Landscape, Dimensional Fund Advisors 2015. US-domiciled mutual fund data is from the CRSP Survivor-Bias-Free US Mutual Fund Database, provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago.
Stocks
Bonds
19%
8%
Portfolios can be structured to pursue specific dimensions that have, based on academic research, demonstrated an ability to provide higher expected returns.
Over time, stocks have delivered higher returns than fixed income investments.Monthly growth of wealth ($1), 1926−2015
In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. US Small Cap Index is the Fama/French US Small Cap Index; US Large Cap Index is the Fama/French US Large Cap Index; Long-Term Government Bonds Index is 20-year US Government Bonds; Treasury Bills are One-Month US Treasury bills; Inflation is the Consumer Price Index. Fama/French Data provided by Fama/French. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors for and provide consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Bonds, T-bills, and inflation data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
4
21
EMPHASIZE VALUE COMPANIES
EMPHASIZE SMALL COMPANY STOCKS
FOCUS ON THE ACADEMIC DIMENSIONS OF HIGHER RETURNS
$0
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2015
$16,743 US Small Cap Index$5,386 US Large Cap Index
$135 Long-TermGovt. Bonds Index
$21 Treasury Bills$13 Inflation (CPI)
EMPHASIZE HIGH PROFITABILITY COMPANIES
INVEST IN STOCKS
3
Information provided by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Indices are not available for direct investment. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 1. Profitability is a measure of current profitability, based on information from individual companies’ income statements. In USD. Based on rolling annualized returns using monthly data. Rolling multiyear periods overlap and are not independent. This statistical dependence must be considered when assessing the reliability of long-horizon return differences. Dimensional Index data compiled by Dimensional. Fama/French data provided by Fama/French. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Eugene Fama and Ken French are members of the Board of Directors for and provide consulting services to Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Index descriptions available upon request.
Historical Performance of Premiums over Rolling Periods
$0
$1
$10
$100
$1,000
$10,000
$100,000
1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006 2015
$16,743 US Small Cap Index$5,386 US Large Cap Index
$135 Long-TermGovt. Bonds Index
$21 Treasury Bills$13 Inflation (CPI)
Market is Fama/French Total US Market Index. T-Bills is One-Month US Treasury Bills. There are 877 overlapping 15-year periods, 937 overlapping 10-year periods, 997 overlapping 5-year periods, and 1,045 overlapping 1-year periods.
69% of the time
78% of the time
85% of the time
96% of the time
1-Year
5-Year
10-Year
15-Year
MARKET beat T-BILLSOverlapping Periods: January 1928–December 2015
High is Dimensional US High Profitability Index. Low is Dimensional US Low Profitability Index. There are 451 overlapping 15-year periods, 511 overlapping 10-year periods, 571 overlapping 5-year periods, and 619 overlapping 1-year periods.
Small is Dimensional US Small Cap Index. Large is S&P 500 Index. There are 877 overlapping 15-year periods, 937 overlapping 10-year periods, 997 overlapping 5-year periods, and 1,045 overlapping 1-year periods.
Value is Fama/French US Value Index. Growth is Fama/French US Growth Index. There are 877 overlapping 15-year periods, 937 overlapping 10-year periods, 997 overlapping 5-year periods, and 1,045 overlapping 1-year periods.
Overlapping Periods: January 1928–December 2015
Overlapping Periods: July 1963–December 2015
Overlapping Periods: January 1928–December 2015
61% of the time
77% of the time
88% of the time
97% of the time
1-Year
5-Year
10-Year
15-Year
VALUE beat GROWTH
57% of the time
64% of the time
72% of the time
82% of the time
1-Year
5-Year
10-Year
15-Year
SMALL beat LARGE
71% of the time
92% of the time
100% of the time
100% of the time
1-Year
5-Year
10-Year
15-Year
HIGH PROFITABILITY1 beat LOW PROFITABILITY
EFFECTIVELYDIVERSIFY
OBS Financial Services, Inc. is Registered Investment Advisor. The OBS model returns are constructed with the benefit of hindsight using back-tested performance results. Back-tested performance is a hypothetical re-creation of a model portfolio using historical performance data. This represents how OBS would have managed the models both after and prior to the creation of the model itself. Actual client returns may be lower or higher than the stated model return. Investors should refer to their account statements for actual performance figures and refer to the model returns as a benchmark or an estimate of performance. The above returns are shown gross of OBS advisory fees. The above returns do not include custodial/trading costs, OBS advisory fees, or other advisory/solicitation fees. The result of these fees and custodial costs over a period of time can be significant. Reinvestment of dividends is included. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Returns longer than one year are annualized from monthly data and portfolios are rebalanced annually. Benchmark composites annualized from monthly data, composites rebalanced annually. For portfolio construction, major indices are used to represent a specific asset class. This is for illustration purposes only and is not representative of an actual investment. Cannot directly invest in an index. For more complete information, including mutual fund charges and expense, contact your financial advisor for a prospectus. Read the prospectus carefully. IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT INVESTMENTS: NOT FDIC-INSURED, NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE, NOT A BANK DEPOSIT, NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
14.02US Small Cap Value
12.35US Real Estate
7.23One-Year
Fixed Income
7.24Global Fixed
2.49US Small
Cap
-2.62 Emerging Markets
-5.59 US Large Cap Value
-11.89 US Large
Cap
8.45 Global Fixed
3.58 US Real Estate
3.39 One-Year
Fixed Income
-6.17 Emerging Markets
-11.43 US Small Cap Value
-15.53 US Large Cap Value
-15.80 Int’l
Developed
-20.48 US Small
Cap
55.82 Emerging Markets
47.25 US Small
Cap
46.03 US Small Cap Value
39.42 Int’l
Developed
36.18 US Real Estate
30.03 US Large Cap Value
28.69 US Large
Cap
3.17 Global Fixed
33.16 US Real Estate
25.55 Emerging Markets
22.25 US Small Cap Value
20.38 Int’l
Developed
18.33 US Small
Cap
16.49 US Large Cap Value
10.88 US Large
Cap
4.90Global Fixed
34.00Emerging Markets
14.47 Int’l
Developed
13.82 US Real Estate
7.03 US Large Cap Value
4.91 US Large
Cap
4.71 US Small Cap Value
4.55 US Small
Cap
4.28 Global Fixed
35.97 US Real Estate
32.14 Emerging Markets
25.71 Int’l
Developed
23.48 US Small Cap Value
22.25US Large Cap Value
18.37 US Small
Cap
15.80 US Large
Cap
4.32 One-Year
Fixed Income
39.42 Emerging Markets
12.44 Int’l
Developed
5.95 One-Year
Fixed Income
5.49 US Large
Cap
5.33 Global Fixed
-0.17 US Large Cap Value
-1.57 US Small
Cap
-9.78 US Small Cap Value
5.58 Global Fixed
4.75 One-Year
Fixed Income
-28.92 US Small Cap Value
-33.79 US Small
Cap
-36.85 US Large Cap Value
-37.00 US Large
Cap
-39.20 US Real Estate
-43.56 Int’l
Developed
78.51Emerging Markets
33.67 Int’l
Developed
28.46 US Real Estate
27.17 US Small
Cap
26.46 US Large
Cap
20.58 US Small Cap Value
19.69 US Large Cap Value
5.09Global Fixed
28.07 US Real Estate
26.86 US Small
Cap
24.50 US Small Cap Value
18.88 Emerging Markets
15.51 US Large Cap Value
15.06 US Large
Cap
8.95 Int’l
Developed
4.61 Global Fixed
9.37 US Real Estate
5.40 Global Fixed
2.11 US Large
Cap
0.57 One-Year
Fixed Income
0.39 US Large Cap Value
-4.18 US Small
Cap
-5.50 US Small Cap Value
-12.21 Int’l
Developed
18.22 Emerging Markets
18.05 US Small Cap Value
17.51 US Large Cap Value
17.12 US Real Estate
16.41 Int’l
Developed
16.35 US Small
Cap
16.00 US Large
Cap
5.72 Global Fixed
38.82 US Small
Cap
34.52US Small Cap Value
32.53 US Large Cap Value
32.39 US Large
Cap
21.02Int’l
Developed
1.22 US Real Estate
0.25 One-Year
Fixed Income
-0.14 Global Fixed
32.00 US Real Estate
13.69 US Large
Cap
13.45 US Large Cap Value
7.59 Global Fixed
4.89 US Small
Cap
4.22 US Small Cap Value
0.18 One-Year
Fixed Income
-2.19 Emerging Markets
4.48 US Real Estate
1.38 US Large
Cap
1.02 Global Fixed
0.15 One-Year
Fixed Income
-3.04Int’l
Developed
-3.83 US Large Cap Value
-4.41 US Small
Cap
-7.47 US Small Cap Value
-21.40 Int’l
Developed
-22.10 US Large
Cap
1.47 One-Year
Fixed Income
0.83One-Year
Fixed Income
2.36 One-Year
Fixed Income
3.64 Global Fixed
-17.56 US Real Estate
-53.33 Emerging Markets
0.80 One-Year
Fixed Income
0.83 One-Year
Fixed Income
-18.42 Emerging Markets
0.24 One-Year
Fixed Income
-2.60 Emerging Markets
-4.32 Int’l
Developed
-14.92 Emerging Markets
Asset Class Index Performance 2001-2015 Annual Return (%)
While we believe markets are inherently efficient, we recognize the impossibility of predicting their movements. In order to consistently benefit from them, you need to be invested across all of them, all of the time. To be effectively diversified, a portfolio must be diversified across asset classes both domestically and globally and, we believe, across thousands, not hundreds, of securities. This is why we build asset class portfolios that typically contain over 9,000 companies in 45 countries, representing 35 currencies.
DIVERSIFICATIONHELPS YOU CAPTURE WHAT GLOBAL MARKETS OFFER
Market cap data is free-float adjusted from Bloomberg securities data. Many nations not displayed. Total may not equal 100% due to rounding. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. China market capitalization excludes A-shares, which are generally only available to mainland China investors. World Fixed Income data is from Barclays Global Aggregate Ex-Securitized Bond Index. Many nations not displayed. Total may not equal 100% due to rounding. For educational purposes; should not be used as investment advice. Barclays data provided by Barclays Bank PLC.
World Market Capitalization As of December 31, 2015
World Fixed Income MarketsAs of December 31, 2015
Our fixed income approach involves diversifying among high-quality, shorter-term fixed income instruments. History has demonstrated that these higher-quality shorter maturity characteristics can help dampen portfolio volatility. History also suggests that investors are typically not properly compensated for the additional risk generally associated with longer maturity bonds as evidenced by the graphic below.
Source: One-Month US Treasury Bills, Five-Year US Treasury Notes, and Twenty-Year (Long-Term) US Government Bonds provided by Ibbotson Associates. Six-Month US Treasury Bills provided by CRSP (1964-1977) and Merrill Lynch (1978-present). One-Year US Treasury Notes provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices (1964-May 1991) and Merrill Lynch (June 1991-present). The Merrill Lynch Indices are used with permission; copyright 2015 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated; all rights reserved. Assumes reinvestment of dividends. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk. Standard deviation annualized from quarterly data. Standard deviation is a statistical measurement of how far the return of a security (or index) moves above or below its average value. The greater the standard deviation, the riskier an investment is considered to be.
RISK AND REWARDS EXAMINED FOR BONDS 1964 - 2015
UTILIZE FIXED INCOME EFFECTIVELY
One-Month US Treasury Bills
BofA Merrill Lynch 6-Month US
Treasury Bill Index
BofA Merrill Lynch 1-Year US
Treasury Note Index
Five-Year US Treasury Notes
Long-Term Government
Bonds
Annualized Return (%) 4.91 5.61 5.80 6.87 7.38
Annualized Standard Deviation* (%) 1.57 1.89 2.40 6.02 11.37
Annualized Standard Deviation* (%)
Annualized Return (%)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Investing in general, and trading securities in particular, can be expensive. By engineering portfolios designed to minimize both trading costs and taxes and avoiding unnecessary transactions, we provide savings over traditional investing approaches that accrue directly to the investor’s return.
MINIMIZE COSTS
BALANCING INVESTMENT TRADE-OFFS
Sample Fee ComparisonFor example purposes only
The hidden impact of expense ratios, trade friction, and taxes dramatically increases cost and creates drag on portfolio returns. When structuring and implementing strategies, we carefully consider the trade-offs that matter to performance.
Two investment opportunities can have the same expected return but invite very different conditions. These conditions result in different costs, which impact net returns.
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY CONDITIONS Broad diversification and patient, flexible trading lead to lower turnover and costs.
Concentrated holdings and urgent, inflexible trading result in higher turnover and costs.
A
B
COST NET RETURN
COST NET RETURN
*Morningstar category and averages provided by © Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. World-allocation portfolios seek to provide both capital appreciation and income by investing in three major areas: stocks, bonds, and cash. While these portfolios do explore the whole world, most of them focus on the U.S., Canada, Japan, and the larger markets in Europe. It is rare for such portfolios to invest more than 10% of their assets in emerging markets. These portfolios typically have at least 10% of assets in bonds, less than 70% of assets in stocks, and at least 40% of assets in non-U.S. stocks or bonds.**Independent research found that fund turnover costs on average 0.36% for every 100% of turnover within the fund. McFarland, Sheldon and Cherry Phan. “Structure Determines Performance, but Costs Matter Too!” Loring ward, Inc. (2011). Estimated Transaction and Management Costs = (turnover% x 0.36%).***The Morningstar Tax Cost Ratio measures how much a fund’s annualized return is reduced by the taxes investors pay on distributions. Mutual funds regularly distribute stock dividends, bond dividends and capital gains to their shareholders. Investors then must pay taxes on those distributions during the year they were received.
Sample Portfolio Drag (per year): 1.50%Impact of trade costs, trade friction & taxes
There is a significant client impact!
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
DFA/EFS 60/40World Allocation Category*
3.92%
2.41%
Advisor Fee
1-Year Tax Cost Ratio ***
Transaction Cost & Management **
Average Expense Ratio *
STAY DISCIPLINED
HUMANS ARE NOT WIRED FOR DISCIPLINED INVESTING
REACTING CAN HURT PERFORMANCE
Missing only a few days of strong returns can drastically impact
overall performance.
In US dollars. Indices are not available for direct investment. Their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Performance data for January 1970–August 2008 provided by CRSP; performance data for September 2008–December 2015 provided by Bloomberg. S&P data provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. US bonds and bills data © Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook™, Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G. Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield).
Performance of the S&P 500 Index, 1970 - 2015
Gro
wth
of $
1,00
0
Annualized Compound Return 10.27% 10.01% 9.24% 7.95% 6.87% 4.94%
One-Month
US T-Bills
Missed25 BestSingleDays
Missed15 BestSingleDays
Missed5 Best Single Days
Missed1 Best
Day
TotalPeriod
$89,678
$80,370
$58,214
$21,224
$33,710
$9,195
Combine Multiple Asset ClassesSeek to combine multiple asset classes that have historically experienced dissimilar return patterns across various financial and economic environments. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against a loss.
Diversify GloballyMore than 50% of global stock market value is non-U.S., and international stock markets as a whole have historically experienced dissimilar return patterns to the U.S.
Invest in Thousands of SecuritiesCompared to a portfolio concentrated in a small number of securities, investing in thousands of securities around the world can limit portfolio losses during a severe market decline by reducing company-specific risk.
Invest in High-Quality, Short-Term Fixed IncomeFixed income’s role in our portfolios is to reduce volatility. We seek to accomplish this by employing:
- Shorter maturities that have low correlations historically with stocks.- High-quality instruments to lower default risk.
Determinants of Portfolio
Performance
Sources: Brinson, Hood, Beebower, 1994; Ibbotson & Associates, 2002; Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc., 2003.
Our Approach
The vast majority of a portfolio’s performance is determined by asset class selection and only a small portion by market timing
or security selection.
2%Market Timing
Shifting portfolio assets in and out of the market or between asset classes
4%Security Selection
Finding “under priced” companies or industries 94%
Asset Class SelectionHow assets are allocated in a portfolio
Pote
ntia
l Ret
urn
Hig
her
Low
er
Risk
EFFICIENT FRONTIER PORTFOLIOS
100/0100% Equity0% Fixed Income
0/1000% Equity100% Fixed Income
80/2080% Equity20% Fixed Income70/30
70% Equity30% Fixed Income
60/4060% Equity40% Fixed Income50/50
50% Equity50% Fixed Income
40/6040% Equity60% Fixed Income
20/8020% Equity80% Fixed Income
Select from 8 Efficient Frontier Portfolios that give you access to a broad range of asset classes.
HigherLower
Fixed Income US Real EstateInternational Stocks Emerging MarketsUS Stocks
Volatile markets and seemingly endless choices make it difficult for individual investors to commit to a thoughtful plan of action for their portfolios. In this age of the “24-hour news cycle,” it is easy to forget the role that maintaining your investment portfolio can play in achieving your long-term goals. Working with a trusted advisor committed to guiding you through the development and implementation of a disciplined investment plan frees you to pursue your dreams.
Work with aProfessional
Provide guidance on the various portfolio strategies available while
simplifying complex concepts
Your advisor will:
Professional Financial Advisors who offer the Structured Investing approach have a duty of
loyalty, care, and competence and are held to a higher standard of trust.
Develop a consistent guiding philosophy for managing your wealth
Build a robust and repeatable process that
delivers you peace of mind
Regularly review your portfolio and make adjustments depending on changes in your life
Brochure created and provided by OBS Financial. Portfolios are managed by OBS Financial Services, Inc. and are comprised of investments from Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. OBS Financial is a Registered Investment Advisor with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Past performance does not predict future results. IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT INVESTMENTS: NOT FDIC-INSURED, NO BANK GUARANTEE. MAY LOSE VALUE, NOT A BANK DEPOSIT, NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY. For more complete information, including charges and expenses, contact your financial advisor for a prospectus. Read the prospectus carefully.
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