The Arab spring Causes & Effects Dr. Akram Khater North Carolina State University June 2012

The Arab springCauses & Effects

Dr. Akram KhaterNorth Carolina State University

June 2012

What is It?

A new generation seeking a better life, freedom and justice

Where is It?

Why We Missed It?Popular Culture and Arabs

Why We Missed It? – Part 2

US Foreign Policy: Between Radical Islamists and Brutal Allies

US ME Foreign Policy

Oil

Israel

Causes of the Uprisings

Demographics

Failure and de-legitimization of the State

Globalization

Demographics

Yem

en

Unite

d St

ates

Syria

Saud

i Ara

bia

Pale

stin

eIra

qIra

n

Fran

ce

Egyp

t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Youth in the Middle East and North Africa make up, on average, 50% of the population

Educational Crisis

Overcrowded Classrooms

Egypt Syria Tunisia US Israel France0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Expenditure Per Student

Underfunded SchoolsUnderpaid Teachers

Yemen Jordan Lebanon Syria Egypt0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Salary in US Dollars

Unemployment

Algeria Bahrain Egypt Iran Palestine Saudi Arabia Syria0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Percentage of Unemployment for Youth 15-24

Male Unemployment

Female Unemployment

UN World Population Horizons: 2004 Census

“Hayt-iste,” or the Unemployed

Poverty and Social Malaise

Absence of Government Institutions

Lack of Infrastructure

Lack of Social Services and Green Spaces

Imagined as dysfunctional

Political Repression

Conflicting ChoicesIslamist Current

Neo-Liberalism

The Facebook Generation

Islamists: From moderate to militant

Neo-Liberalism

The Facebook Generation: Between Islamists and Elites

GlobalizationA literate youth population

Yemen Egypt Syria Iran Libya Bahrain0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

20001970

GlobalizationA connected youth population

Between 2000 and 2009 internet user growth was 5863.9%

Syria Egypt Yemen Iran Lebanon0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

GlobalizationTwitter, facebook are tools; human rights and democracy are their ideals

NGO and Civil Society

Immediate FutureRise of Islamists ruling elites

Secular Parties will gain strength as Islamists prove incapable of governance

Diverse attitude toward Shari’a

Attitudes toward women’s rights

TunisiaEgypt

Yemen

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Implications for US Policy

Beyond the binaries of Good and Bad Arab

New Rules of Engagement - limits of military power

Rapprochement of Rhetoric and ActionPalestine/Israel

Democracy and “Allies”

Beyond Oil