TFIF CONGRESS 2017tusaf2017.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Bernard-Valluis-ENG.pdf · Health &...

By Bernard VALLUIS President of the European Flour Millers

TFIF CONGRESS 2017

29 national flour milling associations

Associate members:

A highly-regulated environment

for EU flour millers

A highly-regulated environment for flour millers

Health & Food Safety

➜ MRLs for plant protection products

➜ MLs for DON, OTA, Aflatoxins, Nivalenol, Zearalenone, T-2+HT-2 toxins, Lead, Cadmium, ergot, tricothecenes etc. for grain and flour

➜ Official controls

➜ Date marking

➜ Nutrition & health claims, food & feed hygiene, precautionary allergen labelling, baby food

➜ Zero tolerance for low-level presence of not-yet approved GMOs

➜ Mandatory & voluntary rules for country-of-origin labelling

Agricultural policy

➜ CAP Reform & market measures to apply to the cereal sector

➜ Secure access to wheat/rye/oats in quantity & quality

➜ Manage exposure to raw materials’ extreme price volatility

A highly-regulated environment

Competition rules

➜ Food sector is high priority for European & national competition authorities

➜ Value-sharing mechanism becoming a strong belief for MEPs

➜ Antitrust rules to apply all along the food chain

Internal Market

➜ The case of agri commodities in the revision of regulations in financial markets

➜ More transparency & better functioning of agricultural commodities’ derivatives & spot markets

Environment

➜ Sustainability, energy efficiency and waste

➜ Integrated pollution prevention & emission controls

➜ Best available techniques for emission limits in the flour milling sector

Wheat availability & Trade in the European Union

Common wheat is the 1st EU cereal with 45% total EU production (2016)

EU-28 Production

COMMON WHEAT

139.0 mio tons

(46%)Other cereals

165.3 mio tons

UK 68%

DE 52%

PL 35%

FR 53%

Common wheat is the 1st EU cereal: evolution since 2007/08

Common wheat / all other cereals

Common wheat yields in EU Member States

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Yiel

ds

(t/h

a)

Marketing Year (July -June)Source: EUROSTAT; DG AGRI

FR

DE

UK

PL

EU-28

EU common wheat: very good supply & demand

EU-28

2007/

08 2008/

09 2009/

10 2010/

11 2011/

12 2012/

13 2013/

14 2014/

15 2015/

16e 2016/

17f

Beginning stocks 19.7 16.8 22.4 14.9 9.7 10.8 9.3 9.1 11.0 17.2

Gross production 111.8 140.5 129.5 127.1 130.5 125.8 136.2 149.9 152.0 143.6

Usable production 110.9 139.4 128.5 126.1 129.4 123.8 135.1 148.7 150.8 142.4

Imports 4.8 6.1 3.1 2.4 5.4 3.8 1.8 2.9 3.2 3.3

Availabilities 135.4 162.4 154.0 143.5 144.5 138.4 146.2 160.7 165.0 162.9

Total domestic uses 107.0 116.0 117.7 112.8 118.5 108.0 106.2 115.5 117.8 117.6

- Human 46.6 46.8 47.0 47.1 47.9 47.9 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.0

- Seed 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7

- Industrial 7.7 8.8 9.9 10.1 10.6 10.3 10.5 10.5 10.6 11.0

o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 1.7 2.8 3.9 4.1 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.9

- Animal feed 47.9 55.8 56.1 50.8 55.2 45.0 42.9 52.4 54.5 53.9

Losses (excl on-farm) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

Exports 10.7 23.0 20.4 20.1 14.3 20.3 30.0 33.3 29.1 27.0

Total uses 118.6 140.0 139.0 133.8 133.7 129.2 137.1 149.8 147.8 145.5

End stocks 16.8 22.4 14.9 9.7 10.8 9.3 9.1 11.0 17.2 17.4

- Market 16.8 22.3 14.7 9.6 10.8 9.3 9.1 11.0 17.2 17.4

- Intervention 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Self-sufficiency rate (%) 104 120 109 112 109 115 127 129 128 121

EU common wheat production in 2016 (million t)

All wheat production forecast (IGC)

EU Member States importing common wheat

EU common wheat import origins

World & EU Trade in Wheat Flour

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

2016/17 (f'cast) 24.11.16

2015/16 (est.)

2014/15

2013/14

World wheat flour imports in ‘000 t (IGC)

World wheat flour imports: Far East Asia (IGC)

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

2016/17 (f'cast)

2015/16 (est.)

2014/15

2013/14

World wheat flour imports: Near East Asia (IGC)

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

Iraq Syria Yemen Others

2016/17 (f'cast)

2015/16 (est.)

2014/15

2013/14

World wheat flour imports: Africa (IGC)

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

2016/17 (f'cast)

2015/16 (est.)

2014/15

2013/14

World wheat flour exports in ‘000 t (IGC)

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

18.000

20.000

2016/17 (f'cast) 24.11.16

2015/16 (est.)

2014/15

2013/14

Turkish flour exports

“With nearly a third of total trade in wheat flour today , the Turkey outgo would approach being the largest amount of flour ever exported by a single

country in history” WorldGrain

Turkey flour export trends

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Africa MENAE-Iraq Iraq East Asia Western Hemisphere

EU Wheat Flour Exports (Wheat eq.) in tonnes

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000

1.800.000

*EU Export licences no longer required since 6 November 2016 Source: Customs surveillance including IPR scheme

EU wheat flour exports

Angola

45%

Chad

6%

Congo

5%

Others

44%0.9 mio t.

2014-15

-24%(Thousand tons)

5Y_TRMAVG

(2009 - 2013)

Angola 498 396 -20%

Chad 53 50 -6%

Congo 39 45 14%

Others 572 394 -31%

2014-15

Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT)°

Angola43%

Chad5%

Congo3%

Others

49%

5Y_TRMAVG(2009 - 2013)

1.2 mio t.

EU wheat flour exporting Member States

FR41%

BE20%

PT7%

IT

7%

DE

7%

Others

18%

0.9 mio t.

2014-15FR

49%

BE

20%

PT 2%

IT 3%

DE

8%

Others

18%

5Y_TRMAVG(2009 - 2013)

1.2 mio t.

(Thousand tons)

5Y_TRMAVG

(2009 - 2013)

FR 568 366 -36%

BE 234 178 -24%

PT 22 64 191%

IT 33 60 84%

DE 91 56 -38%

Others 214 161 -25%

2014-15 -24%

Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT)°

Most EU flour is consumed as bread

Bread consumption trends in the EU

2004 2015 2019 (f) 2004-15 2015-19

EU-28 66.4 62.3 61.7 -0.6% -0.2%

EU-17 67.8 63.5 62.7 -0.6% -0.3%

Fresh 51.5 46.3 45.8 -1.0% -0.3%

Prepacked long-life 15.3 15.5 15.2 0.1% -0.5%

Prepacked home-baking 1.0 1.6 1.7 4.5% 1.3%

Source: Gira compilation

Per capita volumes (kg baked weight) CAGR

Trends

Challenge for tomorrow

Understanding a global business environment

EU Events in 2017 & 2018

CONGRESS IN BERLIN 18-20 May 2017 18 May at night: Berliner Abend at Hotel Oderberger

19 May: EFM Conference on „DISRUPTIONS & THE MILLING INDUSTRY“

Cocktail & Dinner at Haus der Kulturen der Welt

20 May: Visit of Berliner Wall & Reichstag

Online Registration at www.flourmillers.eu

ONLINE REGISTRATION at www.flourmillers.eu

European Flour Millers Semolina & Pasta Manufacturers CONGRESS 24-26 May 2018