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By Bernard VALLUIS President of the European Flour Millers
TFIF CONGRESS 2017
29 national flour milling associations
Associate members:
A highly-regulated environment
for EU flour millers
A highly-regulated environment for flour millers
Health & Food Safety
➜ MRLs for plant protection products
➜ MLs for DON, OTA, Aflatoxins, Nivalenol, Zearalenone, T-2+HT-2 toxins, Lead, Cadmium, ergot, tricothecenes etc. for grain and flour
➜ Official controls
➜ Date marking
➜ Nutrition & health claims, food & feed hygiene, precautionary allergen labelling, baby food
➜ Zero tolerance for low-level presence of not-yet approved GMOs
➜ Mandatory & voluntary rules for country-of-origin labelling
Agricultural policy
➜ CAP Reform & market measures to apply to the cereal sector
➜ Secure access to wheat/rye/oats in quantity & quality
➜ Manage exposure to raw materials’ extreme price volatility
A highly-regulated environment
Competition rules
➜ Food sector is high priority for European & national competition authorities
➜ Value-sharing mechanism becoming a strong belief for MEPs
➜ Antitrust rules to apply all along the food chain
Internal Market
➜ The case of agri commodities in the revision of regulations in financial markets
➜ More transparency & better functioning of agricultural commodities’ derivatives & spot markets
Environment
➜ Sustainability, energy efficiency and waste
➜ Integrated pollution prevention & emission controls
➜ Best available techniques for emission limits in the flour milling sector
Wheat availability & Trade in the European Union
Common wheat is the 1st EU cereal with 45% total EU production (2016)
EU-28 Production
COMMON WHEAT
139.0 mio tons
(46%)Other cereals
165.3 mio tons
UK 68%
DE 52%
PL 35%
FR 53%
Common wheat is the 1st EU cereal: evolution since 2007/08
Common wheat / all other cereals
Common wheat yields in EU Member States
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Yiel
ds
(t/h
a)
Marketing Year (July -June)Source: EUROSTAT; DG AGRI
FR
DE
UK
PL
EU-28
EU common wheat: very good supply & demand
EU-28
2007/
08 2008/
09 2009/
10 2010/
11 2011/
12 2012/
13 2013/
14 2014/
15 2015/
16e 2016/
17f
Beginning stocks 19.7 16.8 22.4 14.9 9.7 10.8 9.3 9.1 11.0 17.2
Gross production 111.8 140.5 129.5 127.1 130.5 125.8 136.2 149.9 152.0 143.6
Usable production 110.9 139.4 128.5 126.1 129.4 123.8 135.1 148.7 150.8 142.4
Imports 4.8 6.1 3.1 2.4 5.4 3.8 1.8 2.9 3.2 3.3
Availabilities 135.4 162.4 154.0 143.5 144.5 138.4 146.2 160.7 165.0 162.9
Total domestic uses 107.0 116.0 117.7 112.8 118.5 108.0 106.2 115.5 117.8 117.6
- Human 46.6 46.8 47.0 47.1 47.9 47.9 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.0
- Seed 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
- Industrial 7.7 8.8 9.9 10.1 10.6 10.3 10.5 10.5 10.6 11.0
o.w. bioethanol/biofuel 1.7 2.8 3.9 4.1 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.9
- Animal feed 47.9 55.8 56.1 50.8 55.2 45.0 42.9 52.4 54.5 53.9
Losses (excl on-farm) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Exports 10.7 23.0 20.4 20.1 14.3 20.3 30.0 33.3 29.1 27.0
Total uses 118.6 140.0 139.0 133.8 133.7 129.2 137.1 149.8 147.8 145.5
End stocks 16.8 22.4 14.9 9.7 10.8 9.3 9.1 11.0 17.2 17.4
- Market 16.8 22.3 14.7 9.6 10.8 9.3 9.1 11.0 17.2 17.4
- Intervention 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Self-sufficiency rate (%) 104 120 109 112 109 115 127 129 128 121
EU common wheat production in 2016 (million t)
All wheat production forecast (IGC)
EU Member States importing common wheat
EU common wheat import origins
World & EU Trade in Wheat Flour
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
2016/17 (f'cast) 24.11.16
2015/16 (est.)
2014/15
2013/14
World wheat flour imports in ‘000 t (IGC)
World wheat flour imports: Far East Asia (IGC)
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
2016/17 (f'cast)
2015/16 (est.)
2014/15
2013/14
World wheat flour imports: Near East Asia (IGC)
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
Iraq Syria Yemen Others
2016/17 (f'cast)
2015/16 (est.)
2014/15
2013/14
World wheat flour imports: Africa (IGC)
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
2016/17 (f'cast)
2015/16 (est.)
2014/15
2013/14
World wheat flour exports in ‘000 t (IGC)
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
20.000
2016/17 (f'cast) 24.11.16
2015/16 (est.)
2014/15
2013/14
Turkish flour exports
“With nearly a third of total trade in wheat flour today , the Turkey outgo would approach being the largest amount of flour ever exported by a single
country in history” WorldGrain
Turkey flour export trends
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Africa MENAE-Iraq Iraq East Asia Western Hemisphere
EU Wheat Flour Exports (Wheat eq.) in tonnes
0
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
1.600.000
1.800.000
*EU Export licences no longer required since 6 November 2016 Source: Customs surveillance including IPR scheme
EU wheat flour exports
Angola
45%
Chad
6%
Congo
5%
Others
44%0.9 mio t.
2014-15
-24%(Thousand tons)
5Y_TRMAVG
(2009 - 2013)
Angola 498 396 -20%
Chad 53 50 -6%
Congo 39 45 14%
Others 572 394 -31%
2014-15
Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT)°
Angola43%
Chad5%
Congo3%
Others
49%
5Y_TRMAVG(2009 - 2013)
1.2 mio t.
EU wheat flour exporting Member States
FR41%
BE20%
PT7%
IT
7%
DE
7%
Others
18%
0.9 mio t.
2014-15FR
49%
BE
20%
PT 2%
IT 3%
DE
8%
Others
18%
5Y_TRMAVG(2009 - 2013)
1.2 mio t.
(Thousand tons)
5Y_TRMAVG
(2009 - 2013)
FR 568 366 -36%
BE 234 178 -24%
PT 22 64 191%
IT 33 60 84%
DE 91 56 -38%
Others 214 161 -25%
2014-15 -24%
Source: EUROSTAT (COMEXT)°
Most EU flour is consumed as bread
Bread consumption trends in the EU
2004 2015 2019 (f) 2004-15 2015-19
EU-28 66.4 62.3 61.7 -0.6% -0.2%
EU-17 67.8 63.5 62.7 -0.6% -0.3%
Fresh 51.5 46.3 45.8 -1.0% -0.3%
Prepacked long-life 15.3 15.5 15.2 0.1% -0.5%
Prepacked home-baking 1.0 1.6 1.7 4.5% 1.3%
Source: Gira compilation
Per capita volumes (kg baked weight) CAGR
Trends
Challenge for tomorrow
Understanding a global business environment
EU Events in 2017 & 2018
CONGRESS IN BERLIN 18-20 May 2017 18 May at night: Berliner Abend at Hotel Oderberger
19 May: EFM Conference on „DISRUPTIONS & THE MILLING INDUSTRY“
Cocktail & Dinner at Haus der Kulturen der Welt
20 May: Visit of Berliner Wall & Reichstag
Online Registration at www.flourmillers.eu
ONLINE REGISTRATION at www.flourmillers.eu
European Flour Millers Semolina & Pasta Manufacturers CONGRESS 24-26 May 2018