Tereza Cavazos NAME Working Group Puerto Vallarta, Mexico November 2003 CICESE and UABC...

Tereza Cavazos

NAME Working GroupPuerto Vallarta, Mexico

November 2003

CICESE and UABC Participation in

NAME

Dept. of Physical Oceanography

2002

Components:

- Oceanographic- Atmospheric- Land-Surface

Title

Oceanographic Comp

MW Douglas - NSSLAS Mascarenhas - UABCMF Lavin – CICESE, Ens.R Castro - UABCE Beier – CICESE, La PazD Mitchell - DRIP Guest - NPSD Ivanova - DRI

The Role of Oceanic Processes on the Gulf of California SST Evolution

During the NAME

OceanographicComponent

SST_clim: Sat

JPL AVHRR Pathfinder Global 9 Km SST Climatology

HYPOTHESIS:

Northward advance of the monsoon seems to be related to the poleward progression of the 26oC isotherm on the eastern side of the GC

http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/climatology

Corr_SST: Model

June to September monthly climatology of currents (cms-1) and temperature (oC) in the 25-50 m layer of the POCM-4C model.

September

June July

AugustObservations:

TSW at the entrance of the GC Max in May-Jun

- Castro et al. 2000 - Castro 2001- Mascarenhas et al. 2003

Corr:Model

Modeling the circulation

and heat fluxes in the GC

(G. Marinone & A. Parés)

QuickScat

Surface Wind Climatology

Using QuikScat

(G. Marinone & A. Parés)

Scientific Question

What is the relative importance of oceanic heat advection and local-air sea fluxes in controlling the SST evolution

during the NAM in the Gulf of California ?

Objective

The Role of Oceanic Processes on the Gulf of California SST

Evolution During the NAME

OceanographicComponent

Cruises

- Observing stations along the blue lines - CTD every 10 km and down to 1000m - Atmospheric soundings 4/day

- Continuous meteorological, ADCP and SST data will be collected throughout the cruises

-The coastal meteorological stations and ADCP+MicroCAT moorings will be deployed at both sides of the GC

- Large dots: possible deployment sites for surface satellite-tracked drifters

Proposed NAMEOceanographic Cruises

Objective 1:

Determine characteristics of convective phenomena

- GOES satellite imagery

- Surface and upper-air observations

- Mesoscale model simulations (MM5)

Convective Patterns OverBaja California

(LM Farfán – CICESE, La Paz)

AtmosphericComponent

LF2

- Large-scale conditions and dynamic

mechanisms

- Changes in structure due to storm

interaction with the peninsula

- Determine patterns of wind/rainfall

distribution to identify high-risk areas Hurricane Marty: 12UTC 22 September 2003

Objective 2: Study landfall tracks in Baja California

D. Lettenmaier,

T. Cavazos & C. Zhu

Land-surface hydrologic predictability in the NAM region using a derived long-term data

set

1

To what extent do soil moisture and snow anomalies affect the evolution of the NAM?

Science Question

Extend retrospective LDAS data set to cover Tiers 1, 2 and 3 for ~ 50 yrs

Objectives

Using the derived LDAS, undertake predictability studies to investigate the role of land-surface feedbacks in the monsoon region

Current soil moisture data (LDAS; 1950-97): Derived from a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 1/8º resolution (Maurer et al. 2002).

Study Domain

Tier 3

Winter Precipitation-monsoon rainfall feedback hypothesis

Higher (lower) winter precipitation

& spring snowpack

More (less) spring &

early summer soil moisture

Lower (higher) spring & early summer surface

temperature

Weak (strong) monsoon

Monsoon West

Monsoon South

Monsoon North

Monsoon East

Precipitation Regions

Winter Precip

JFM Precipitation in extreme monsoon

years

DRY WET

Wet Monsoon Dry Monsoon

Apr-May Soil Moisture in extreme monsoon

years

Snow

DRY WET

Moisture

WetDry

Soil moisture anomalies persist from spring until June

What is the feedback to the atmosphere ?

CorrelationMay-Jun SWE and

Surface temperature (Ts)

(Negative relationship)

CorrelationJune Ts vs July Precipitation

Wet modes

Heterogeneous SVD JAS Z500 vs JAS Precipitation

Dry

?

Heterogeneous SVD JFM SST vs JAS Precipitation

-0.4

0.4

-0.4

Negative PDO Dry monsoon

SVD: Z500 (AMJ) & PPT (JAS)

Mode 1: Z500 (AMJ)

JAS Pan: NWMex & AZ

DRY

WET

Conclusions

Higher (lower) winter precipitation

& spring snowpack

More (less) spring &

early summer soil moisture

Lower (higher) spring & early summer surface

temperature

Weak (strong) monsoon

Atmospheric connection:Winter SSTan and

Spring Z500 circulation

Especially During Extreme Years