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Tackling Climate Change and Food Insecurity: Challenges and Opportunities for EAC
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 1The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems
Presentation at the Inception Meeting of the PACT-EAC Project Nuhu Hatibu; CEO – Kilimo Trust
Putting Our Abundant Water Resources to Work
Total Renewable Water Resources (Km3/year)• Tanzania = 96• Uganda = 66• Kenya = 31• Burundi = 13• Rwanda = 10
… because, the main impacts of climate change on food security and economy … occur through water
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 2The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems
For example , GDP Growth (%/annum) in Tanzania
-20 -10 4 10
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
25
% Variation of Rainfall from the Mean
An
nu
al G
row
th o
f G
DP
(%
)
… another example of impacts …through water..
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 3The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems
Damages to infrastructure, and economic loses in Kenya
A: 1997-98 El Nino
B: 1998-2000 La
Nina
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
Eco
nom
ic L
oss
in
US
$
A: 1997-98 El Nino
B: 1998-2000 La Nina
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Loses a
s %
of
Tota
l G
DP
After – the UN World Water Development Report 3 – pg 70-71
BUT, the Problem is the LIMITED Infrastructure to Manage “Water & its Variability” …
Installed capacity in SSA is about 500 m3 per capita - USA or Australia have more than 5,000 m3 per capita;
Of the world’s 45,000 large dams, only 1,000 (2%) in SSA;
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 4
For example, it is the lack of storage, that makes the abundant water resources (and its variability) - a cause of misery rather than – the water itself
Ethiopia SSA-Average SAfrica Thailand Brazil N-America0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
50500
750
1300
3300
6150
Water Storage Gap - SSA vs Rest of the World
Wat
er S
tora
ge m
3 pe
r ca
pita
… therefore LIMITED Infrastructure is very costly … and will become worse with Climate Change
For example, in Japan, heavy investment in infrastructure since the 1970s has reduced annual economic losses due to floods from 20% of GNI, to less than 0.5%; and
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 5
However, Heavy investment in developed countries shows high returns - which proves that investment pays
In the USA, many of the largest federal infrastructural investments have been on water control, storage, management and abstraction.
… one consequence is that, most of our God-given “free” Rainwater Go to Waste! Rainfall total in the
EAC is about 1,750 Km3 per year; or
About 13 m3 per person/year; But
Most of this water is lost to evaporation or flow to the oceans
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 6
… so, Adaptation of Food Security to CC, requires as the 1st priority, the management of rainwater on the farmWHY?The soil provides the largest “free” water
storage infrastructure;Compared to Irrigation, RWH and SWC
can be implemented virtually everywhere; and
Adoption of SWC in the USA made the largest single contribution (45%) to the increase in average wheat yields from 750 kg/ha to 1,800 kg/ha from 1936 to 1977. This was ahead of improved varieties (30%), other equipment (20%) and fertilizer practice (5%).
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 7
… also, Expand, Improve its Efficiency, and Adapt to CC, conventional irrigation
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 8
Burun
di
Rwan
da
Ugand
a
Tanz
ania
Kenya
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% U
tilizati
on
of
Irri
gati
on
Pote
nti
al
EAC South Asia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% U
tilizati
on
of
Irri
gati
on
Pote
nti
al
… plus, for Adaptation to CC, expand use of modern inputs to reduce water requirement for food production
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
(a) Relationship between water productivity and yields
Yields (MT /ha)
Wate
r pro
ducti
vit
y (
m3/t
onne)
Sweet potatoes
Rice
Maize
Irish potato
Dairy
Cassava
Beef
Beans
Banana
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
1
5.6
2.8
0.330000000000003
2.4
1.5
33
3.3
3.9
Current water of productivity- ET per harvest (m3 /Kg)
Evapo-transpiration(m3/Kg)
Com
modit
ies
Sweet potatoes
Rice
Maize
Irish potato
Dairy
Cassava
Beef
Beans
Banana
0.5
3.2
1.4
0.14
1.3
0.8
10
1.7
2.1
Water of productivity with Optimum Commodity
yields(m3/Kg)
Evapo-transpiration (m3/Kg)
Com
modit
ies
… for serious Adaptation of the Economy, to Climate Change; we require …
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 10
Necessary and Sufficient Water Control and Storage Infrastructure (with integrated water use) that is adapted to the anticipated climate change
…BUT, we also require regional markets and trade – for sustainable Food Security
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012
The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 11
FRANCE UK USA GERMANY0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
CEREALSPULSESMEAT
Food I
mport
s a
s a
Pro
port
ion o
f Tota
l C
onsum
pti
on
(%)
Because, the world market for food is very thin …
…Because… Food self-sufficiency and/or
command and control, is a human trait;
That is why “land-grabbing” is as old as human civilization – although it has nothing to do we land – but rather a lot to do with water!
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 12
… and because it would very costly to achieve 100% adaptation to climate variability & change
• To transfer some of the Risk to the Global Insurance Industry; because
• Potential for weather-indexed agricultural insurance is expanding as the OECD countries shift from direct agricultural subsidies, to subsidies for agri-insurance
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 13
We need a robust weather-indexed insurance
…however, there are serious challenges …1. Very low trust in insurance;2. Difficult to make index-insurance;
comprehensible to the never-before insured;
3. Limited “livelihood-focused” indexes4. Inadequate historical data for rating
the selected indexes; leading to 5. High basis-risk (poor correlation (r2
< 90%) of index and actual losses).
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 14
…which require serious work, including to: …• Create informed demand (increase awareness,
acceptability, and willingness to pay);• Ascertain the availability and quality of data;• Build necessary capacities, databases and
models;• Create a proposition of real value to the insured;• Integrate agri-insurance onto a wider package of
agricultural services – and make it regional wide;• Engage the private sector to graft onto existing
delivery channels; and• Establish enabling legal and regulatory
frameworks.Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 15
…otherwise…• Pilots die as pilots; and
• Anybody who tells you that she can offer index agri-insurance at short notice and without the necessary investment – is deceiving you!
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 16
In summary and conclusion
• It is essential that:– all decision-makers in the EAC, from – farmers in their fields to the highest Council
of Ministers, are – aware of the need, and – have the capacity to improve innumerable
climate-sensitive decisions, through– effective risk reduction investment, actions,
and management. • We are pleased that PACT-EAC will be
working on this, but more dedicated action is required.
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 17
THANK YOU!
For more information & follow-up, please visit
WWW.kilimotrust.ORG
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012
The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 18
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