Tackling Climate Change and Food Insecurity: Challenges and Opportunities for EAC Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 1 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local

Tackling Climate Change and Food Insecurity: Challenges and Opportunities for EAC

Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 1The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems

Presentation at the Inception Meeting of the PACT-EAC Project Nuhu Hatibu; CEO – Kilimo Trust

Putting Our Abundant Water Resources to Work

Total Renewable Water Resources (Km3/year)• Tanzania = 96• Uganda = 66• Kenya = 31• Burundi = 13• Rwanda = 10

… because, the main impacts of climate change on food security and economy … occur through water


For example , GDP Growth (%/annum) in Tanzania

-20 -10 4 10

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

25

% Variation of Rainfall from the Mean

An

nu

al G

row

th o

f G

DP

(%

)

… another example of impacts …through water..


Damages to infrastructure, and economic loses in Kenya

A: 1997-98 El Nino

B: 1998-2000 La

Nina

-

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

Eco

nom

ic L

oss

in

US

$

A: 1997-98 El Nino

B: 1998-2000 La Nina

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Loses a

s %

of

Tota

l G

DP

After – the UN World Water Development Report 3 – pg 70-71

BUT, the Problem is the LIMITED Infrastructure to Manage “Water & its Variability” …

Installed capacity in SSA is about 500 m3 per capita - USA or Australia have more than 5,000 m3 per capita;

Of the world’s 45,000 large dams, only 1,000 (2%) in SSA;

Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 4

For example, it is the lack of storage, that makes the abundant water resources (and its variability) - a cause of misery rather than – the water itself

Ethiopia SSA-Average SAfrica Thailand Brazil N-America0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

50500

750

1300

3300

6150

Water Storage Gap - SSA vs Rest of the World

Wat

er S

tora

ge m

3 pe

r ca

pita

… therefore LIMITED Infrastructure is very costly … and will become worse with Climate Change

For example, in Japan, heavy investment in infrastructure since the 1970s has reduced annual economic losses due to floods from 20% of GNI, to less than 0.5%; and


However, Heavy investment in developed countries shows high returns - which proves that investment pays

In the USA, many of the largest federal infrastructural investments have been on water control, storage, management and abstraction.

… one consequence is that, most of our God-given “free” Rainwater Go to Waste! Rainfall total in the

EAC is about 1,750 Km3 per year; or

About 13 m3 per person/year; But

Most of this water is lost to evaporation or flow to the oceans


… so, Adaptation of Food Security to CC, requires as the 1st priority, the management of rainwater on the farmWHY?The soil provides the largest “free” water

storage infrastructure;Compared to Irrigation, RWH and SWC

can be implemented virtually everywhere; and

Adoption of SWC in the USA made the largest single contribution (45%) to the increase in average wheat yields from 750 kg/ha to 1,800 kg/ha from 1936 to 1977. This was ahead of improved varieties (30%), other equipment (20%) and fertilizer practice (5%).


… also, Expand, Improve its Efficiency, and Adapt to CC, conventional irrigation


Burun

di

Rwan

da

Ugand

a

Tanz

ania

Kenya

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% U

tilizati

on

of

Irri

gati

on

Pote

nti

al

EAC South Asia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

% U

tilizati

on

of

Irri

gati

on

Pote

nti

al

… plus, for Adaptation to CC, expand use of modern inputs to reduce water requirement for food production


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

(a) Relationship between water productivity and yields

Yields (MT /ha)

Wate

r pro

ducti

vit

y (

m3/t

onne)

Sweet potatoes

Rice

Maize

Irish potato

Dairy

Cassava

Beef

Beans

Banana

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

1

5.6

2.8

0.330000000000003

2.4

1.5

33

3.3

3.9

Current water of productivity- ET per harvest (m3 /Kg)

Evapo-transpiration(m3/Kg)

Com

modit

ies

Sweet potatoes

Rice

Maize

Irish potato

Dairy

Cassava

Beef

Beans

Banana

0.5

3.2

1.4

0.14

1.3

0.8

10

1.7

2.1

Water of productivity with Optimum Commodity

yields(m3/Kg)

Evapo-transpiration (m3/Kg)

Com

modit

ies

… for serious Adaptation of the Economy, to Climate Change; we require …


Necessary and Sufficient Water Control and Storage Infrastructure (with integrated water use) that is adapted to the anticipated climate change

…BUT, we also require regional markets and trade – for sustainable Food Security

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The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 11

FRANCE UK USA GERMANY0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

CEREALSPULSESMEAT

Food I

mport

s a

s a

Pro

port

ion o

f Tota

l C

onsum

pti

on

(%)

Because, the world market for food is very thin …

…Because… Food self-sufficiency and/or

command and control, is a human trait;

That is why “land-grabbing” is as old as human civilization – although it has nothing to do we land – but rather a lot to do with water!


… and because it would very costly to achieve 100% adaptation to climate variability & change

• To transfer some of the Risk to the Global Insurance Industry; because

• Potential for weather-indexed agricultural insurance is expanding as the OECD countries shift from direct agricultural subsidies, to subsidies for agri-insurance


We need a robust weather-indexed insurance

…however, there are serious challenges …1. Very low trust in insurance;2. Difficult to make index-insurance;

comprehensible to the never-before insured;

3. Limited “livelihood-focused” indexes4. Inadequate historical data for rating

the selected indexes; leading to 5. High basis-risk (poor correlation (r2

< 90%) of index and actual losses).


…which require serious work, including to: …• Create informed demand (increase awareness,

acceptability, and willingness to pay);• Ascertain the availability and quality of data;• Build necessary capacities, databases and

models;• Create a proposition of real value to the insured;• Integrate agri-insurance onto a wider package of

agricultural services – and make it regional wide;• Engage the private sector to graft onto existing

delivery channels; and• Establish enabling legal and regulatory

frameworks.Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 15

…otherwise…• Pilots die as pilots; and

• Anybody who tells you that she can offer index agri-insurance at short notice and without the necessary investment – is deceiving you!


In summary and conclusion

• It is essential that:– all decision-makers in the EAC, from – farmers in their fields to the highest Council

of Ministers, are – aware of the need, and – have the capacity to improve innumerable

climate-sensitive decisions, through– effective risk reduction investment, actions,

and management. • We are pleased that PACT-EAC will be

working on this, but more dedicated action is required.


THANK YOU!

For more information & follow-up, please visit

WWW.kilimotrust.ORG

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The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 18

Documents

Tackling Climate Change and Food Insecurity: Challenges and Opportunities for EAC Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 1 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local