Supporting Internet Growth and Evolution: The Transition to IPv6 SANOG 17 18 January 2011 1 George...

Supporting Internet Growth and Evolution:

The Transition to IPv6

SANOG 17

18 January 2011

1

George KuoMember Services Manager, APNIC

Overview

• Reality check: Where are we now?• IPv4/IPv6 distribution statistics• IPv6 deployment statistics• IPv6 edge deployment

• Way forward• Multi-stakeholder approach• Way forward

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Where are we now?

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IPv4 Address Global Distribution

4 July 2010

IPv4 Address Global Distribution

5 3 December 2010

Available unallocatedPool at IANA 7

AfriNIC 3

256 x /835

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IPv4 Consumption: Projection

2014

6

Projected IANA exhaustion: 03/07/2011Projected RIR exhaustion: 21/01/2012

http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html 28 July 2010

2015

IPv4 Consumption: Projection

7

Projected IANA exhaustion: 14/02/2011Projected RIR exhaustion: 31/10/2011

http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html 12/01/2011

Nov 2011Nov 2011

When will you run out of IPv4 addresses?

South Asia IPv6 Delegation

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IPv6 Deployment Statistics

Source: http://www.potaroo.net/

January 2011

9

What’s the Question?

Candidate questions:• How much of the public Internet supports

IPv6?• How much of the public Internet runs

IPv6?• How quickly is the Internet becoming

end-to-end IPv6 capable?• How long will the dual stack transition

take?

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IPv6 BGP Table Size

112004 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

4000

4500

IPv4 BGP Table Size

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2004 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11

350,000

300,000

100,000

250,000

200,000

150,000

IPv6 / IPv4 BGP Table Size Ratio

13

2004 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

%

1.1

1.2

1.3

IPv6 / IPv4 BGP Table Size Ratio

14

2004 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

%

1.1

1.2

1.3

Is this a good indicator of IPv6 deployment?• Probably not

The data sets are not directly comparable:• Historical fragmentation in IPv4• Traffic engineering in IPv4• Address aggregation in IPv6• Use of tunnelling prefixes in IPv6

Is this a good indicator of IPv6 deployment?• Probably not

The data sets are not directly comparable:• Historical fragmentation in IPv4• Traffic engineering in IPv4• Address aggregation in IPv6• Use of tunnelling prefixes in IPv6

IPv6 / IPv4 AS Count Ratio

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2004 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11

7

%

6

5

4

3

2

8

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IPv6 Edge Deployment

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“Google has quietly turned on IPv6 support for its YouTube video streaming Web site, sending a spike of IPv6 traffic across the Internet…”

– 1 Feb 2010 Networld• Monash University, Melbourne, Australia:

IPv6 Traffic

Comcasthttp://www.comcast6.net/

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Comcasthttp://www.comcast6.net/

May 2010• First native dual-stack customer activated• Comcast Business Class services

June 2010• Activated their first residential 6RD trial customer located in Cambridge, MA, USA

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D-NEThttp://www.dnet.net.id/

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D-NEThttp://www.dnet.net.id/

2006• Implemented IPv6 based on the business decision made by Board of Director• Future proof to cope with IPv4 address exhaustion and to maintain sustainable growth

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Googlehttp://ipv6.google.com/

2402:6800:8004::68

Facebookhttp://www.v6.facebook.com/

2620:0:1cfe:face:b00c::3

Experimental, non-production

iOS 4

2001:dc0:a000:6:62fb:42ff:fe44:69e7

Mobile Networks

• “Smartphones are driving a very large amount of network signalling…IPv6 is a priority” (T-Mobile)

• “(IPv6-enabled) Handsets will become prolific in 2011” (Verizon)

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Way Forward:Are you ready for IPv4

exhaustion?

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Beyond 2012…

ISPs will need addresses for new network infrastructure• and will receive only IPv6

End users will start receiving IPv6 Internet services• with or without private IPv4 addresses

Enterprises and businesses will get IPv6 for their new networks• “Customer NAT” will apply to IPv4

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IPv6 Address Management?

• RIRs will continue providing equitable services to the Internet community• A stable and proven structure to manage

Internet resources for the past 20 years

• Address management is not the issue in IPv6 deployment• Policies are stable and unrelated to deployment• Talk of alternative mechanisms for IPv6 address

space distribution is a distraction

• All efforts should go to IPv6 deployment• In the core and at the edges

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ISPs

Note well: One day soon, you will only get IPv6 addresses for new deployments…

• Is your infrastructure ready for IPv6?• Can you deliver IPv6 services in 2012?• What is your plan for IPv4 services to your

customers? None? Customer NAT? CGN?• Are your services and systems ready?

• DNS, SMTP, web, mail, etc• Security, monitoring, customer admin, billing…

Enterprises and Content Providers

One day, your customers and business partners may only have IPv6 addresses…

• Will your website and services be visible via IPv6 in 2012?

• Do you have an upgrade plan?• Does your domain name have AAAA?• Do all your service providers, integrators

and vendors have their plans in place?• Have you asked them?

Others…

System integrators and consultants• Can you put all the pieces together?• Are your people trained to answer questions?• Can you help your customers with their

planning?

Academics and educators• Is your institution ready for IPv6 in 2011?• Are you producing IPv6-ready graduates?• Have you upgraded your skills?

Governments

• Do you have procurement criteria mandating IPv6 capabilities?

• Are your agencies ready with IPv6?

• Are your online and e-government services ready with IPv6?

• Are your Internet industries up to speed?

• Are you providing leadership?

• What else are you doing?

IPv6:A prerequisite to the

sustainable long-term development of a ubiquitous

and open Internet

Thank you!

<george@apnic.net>

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