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Supporting Internet Growth and Evolution:
The Transition to IPv6
SANOG 17
18 January 2011
1
George KuoMember Services Manager, APNIC
Overview
• Reality check: Where are we now?• IPv4/IPv6 distribution statistics• IPv6 deployment statistics• IPv6 edge deployment
• Way forward• Multi-stakeholder approach• Way forward
2
Where are we now?
3
IPv4 Address Global Distribution
4 July 2010
IPv4 Address Global Distribution
5 3 December 2010
Available unallocatedPool at IANA 7
AfriNIC 3
256 x /835
34
IPv4 Consumption: Projection
2014
6
Projected IANA exhaustion: 03/07/2011Projected RIR exhaustion: 21/01/2012
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html 28 July 2010
2015
IPv4 Consumption: Projection
7
Projected IANA exhaustion: 14/02/2011Projected RIR exhaustion: 31/10/2011
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html 12/01/2011
Nov 2011Nov 2011
When will you run out of IPv4 addresses?
South Asia IPv6 Delegation
8
IPv6 Deployment Statistics
Source: http://www.potaroo.net/
January 2011
9
What’s the Question?
Candidate questions:• How much of the public Internet supports
IPv6?• How much of the public Internet runs
IPv6?• How quickly is the Internet becoming
end-to-end IPv6 capable?• How long will the dual stack transition
take?
10
IPv6 BGP Table Size
112004 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
4000
4500
IPv4 BGP Table Size
12
2004 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11
350,000
300,000
100,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
IPv6 / IPv4 BGP Table Size Ratio
13
2004 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
%
1.1
1.2
1.3
IPv6 / IPv4 BGP Table Size Ratio
14
2004 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
%
1.1
1.2
1.3
Is this a good indicator of IPv6 deployment?• Probably not
The data sets are not directly comparable:• Historical fragmentation in IPv4• Traffic engineering in IPv4• Address aggregation in IPv6• Use of tunnelling prefixes in IPv6
Is this a good indicator of IPv6 deployment?• Probably not
The data sets are not directly comparable:• Historical fragmentation in IPv4• Traffic engineering in IPv4• Address aggregation in IPv6• Use of tunnelling prefixes in IPv6
IPv6 / IPv4 AS Count Ratio
15
2004 05 06 07 08 09 2010 11
7
%
6
5
4
3
2
8
9
IPv6 Edge Deployment
16
“Google has quietly turned on IPv6 support for its YouTube video streaming Web site, sending a spike of IPv6 traffic across the Internet…”
– 1 Feb 2010 Networld• Monash University, Melbourne, Australia:
IPv6 Traffic
Comcasthttp://www.comcast6.net/
18
Comcasthttp://www.comcast6.net/
May 2010• First native dual-stack customer activated• Comcast Business Class services
June 2010• Activated their first residential 6RD trial customer located in Cambridge, MA, USA
19
D-NEThttp://www.dnet.net.id/
20
D-NEThttp://www.dnet.net.id/
2006• Implemented IPv6 based on the business decision made by Board of Director• Future proof to cope with IPv4 address exhaustion and to maintain sustainable growth
21
Googlehttp://ipv6.google.com/
2402:6800:8004::68
Facebookhttp://www.v6.facebook.com/
2620:0:1cfe:face:b00c::3
Experimental, non-production
iOS 4
2001:dc0:a000:6:62fb:42ff:fe44:69e7
Mobile Networks
• “Smartphones are driving a very large amount of network signalling…IPv6 is a priority” (T-Mobile)
• “(IPv6-enabled) Handsets will become prolific in 2011” (Verizon)
25
Way Forward:Are you ready for IPv4
exhaustion?
26
Beyond 2012…
ISPs will need addresses for new network infrastructure• and will receive only IPv6
End users will start receiving IPv6 Internet services• with or without private IPv4 addresses
Enterprises and businesses will get IPv6 for their new networks• “Customer NAT” will apply to IPv4
27
IPv6 Address Management?
• RIRs will continue providing equitable services to the Internet community• A stable and proven structure to manage
Internet resources for the past 20 years
• Address management is not the issue in IPv6 deployment• Policies are stable and unrelated to deployment• Talk of alternative mechanisms for IPv6 address
space distribution is a distraction
• All efforts should go to IPv6 deployment• In the core and at the edges
28
ISPs
Note well: One day soon, you will only get IPv6 addresses for new deployments…
• Is your infrastructure ready for IPv6?• Can you deliver IPv6 services in 2012?• What is your plan for IPv4 services to your
customers? None? Customer NAT? CGN?• Are your services and systems ready?
• DNS, SMTP, web, mail, etc• Security, monitoring, customer admin, billing…
Enterprises and Content Providers
One day, your customers and business partners may only have IPv6 addresses…
• Will your website and services be visible via IPv6 in 2012?
• Do you have an upgrade plan?• Does your domain name have AAAA?• Do all your service providers, integrators
and vendors have their plans in place?• Have you asked them?
Others…
System integrators and consultants• Can you put all the pieces together?• Are your people trained to answer questions?• Can you help your customers with their
planning?
Academics and educators• Is your institution ready for IPv6 in 2011?• Are you producing IPv6-ready graduates?• Have you upgraded your skills?
Governments
• Do you have procurement criteria mandating IPv6 capabilities?
• Are your agencies ready with IPv6?
• Are your online and e-government services ready with IPv6?
• Are your Internet industries up to speed?
• Are you providing leadership?
• What else are you doing?
IPv6:A prerequisite to the
sustainable long-term development of a ubiquitous
and open Internet
Thank you!
33