Successful Inventory Management: Finding Profits in · PDF fileSuccessful Inventory...

Monday, March 23

1:30 PM – 4:30 PM

Successful Inventory Management:Finding Profits in Your Business

Presented By: George Mollo

Company: GJM Associates, Inc.

www.gjmassociates.com

(845) 627-0788

Introduction

GJM Associates, Inc. is a consulting firm that focuses on all aspects of merchandising operations for direct marketing companies.

Our primary focus is supply-side processes, that start with merchandise analysis and planning, includes

GJM Associates, Inc.www.gjmassociates.com(845) 627-0788

with merchandise analysis and planning, includes inventory management strategies and the critical coordination of merchandising, marketing, finance, creative and operations through all elements of the business to the ultimate and profitable fulfillment to a customer.

Introduction

• 12 years Retail

• 3 Wholesale

• 15 years Catalog

• 9 years Consultant

• 2002-2007 Served as Chair of the DMA’s Catalog & Multichannel Marketing Council

• Speak at conferences (User Groups, NCOF, ACCM, ECMOD)**

• Contributes articles for trade publications**

(**available on www.gjmassociates.com)

Overview

The Role of Inventory

Management

Merchandise Statistics & Profitability

Planning & Forecasting

Relationships

/ Partnerships

Agenda

Key Measures in Merchandise Analysis

Terms & Definitions

Industry Best Practices

Merchandise Assortment Planning

Techniques to Improve Item Selection

Methods of Planning/Forecasting

Margin Component Considerations

Building Effective Relationships

Agenda

Merchandise Statistics

• Key Performance Indicators

• Profitability Goals (Company, Category, Item)

Planning & Forecasting

• Why Planning is the KEY to Improved Inventory Management

• The TEAM effort

• Relationships

Agenda

In Season Forecasting

• When & How Often

• Several Methods (Pros & Cons)

• Mollo’s Rule of Planning/Forecasting

Identifying Overstock in Season

• Several Liquidation Options

Master’s Degree Inventory Management

• Benefit of Catalog Open to Buy

Inventory Impact

Largest Asset

Why is Inventory Management so Important?

Significant Impact to Cash Flow and Profitability

Significant Impact to All Operating Areas

Inventory Impact

Properly controlled inventory can move substantial profit $$ to (or from) bottom line

Examples: – $50m business - every 1% increase in final fill increases $500k to net sales (which also reduces potential overstock;

final fill increases $500k to net sales (which also reduces potential overstock; most other costs except variable have already been spent.)

– Assuming a 5% EBITDA --- a 1% increase in final fill could increase profit by 10%

Why is this Important?

It’s all about the merchandise!

Inventory Management is the “Hub”

Role is both partner and controller

Merchandise

MarketingReporting & Analysis

Inventory Management Hub

Inventory Management

Creative

Finance

Operations

Distribution Center

Call Center

Key Performance Indicators12

Defining KPI

Performance Indicators (KPI):

Separate the “winners” from the “try agains;” and knowing not only what to measure, but also how to measure it and what it all means, is what

and what it all means, is what separates and defines levels of success.

You can’t fix what you don’t measure!!!

Defining KPI

• a quantifiable measurement that can be tracked and evaluated, and that is harmonious with what you want to achieve

• a metric that an organization measures to help determine its progress towards a goal

• a reflection of the tactical performance of an organization;

• a reflection of the tactical performance of an organization; and, is used to substantiate an organization’s objectives.

• can be quantitative or qualitative, objective or subjective, although preferably quantitative, unambiguous, and reliable.

• a critical measurement of the performance of essential tasks, operations, or processes. A KPI will usually unambiguously reveal conditions or performance that is outside the norm and that signals a need for managerial intervention

What are the Key Measures?15

Key Measures

Backorder rates

Cancel Rates

Demand

Fill Rates

Inventory Turns

Overstock

Returns

Key Measures

Ad to Sales Ratio

Margin

• Components

Price Points

• Average Price (Offered vs. Sold)

Contribution

Profit

Other Measures

Page/Spread Average

Average Item

Category Indices

• Demand to Item

• Demand to Space

• Page/Spread

Key Measures & Definitions

Fill Rates

• Initial/Final Fill

• Order vs. Item Fill

• Target vs. Acceptable Ranges

• Apparel vs. Hard Goods

Cancel Rates

• Backorder Rates

Backorders

• Is there an acceptable rate?

• Relationship to Final Fill Rates?

• Cause of Backorders?– 30-40% of backorders are caused by bad

– 30-40% of backorders are caused by bad timing, not bad forecasts

• Internal communications– Call center

– Distribution center

– Management

BackordersImproving Communication

• Weekly Top 10/20 Backorder list to:

– DC (Receiving)

– Call Center

– Management

Include Item, description, units & dollars on BO, expected delivery date, expected quantity, comments

Returns

• Returns vs. RGS (Returns to Good Stock)

Overstock

• “At Cost”

• “Cost of”

Returns

Return Rates

• Industry benchmarks

Internal Communications

• Call center

• Distribution center

• Management

Reducing Return Rates

• Communication to DC – expedites processing to fill backorders

• Quarterly Review Committee with Call Center/Customer Service & others

• Address Top 10/20 returns

Instituting this approach, I have experienced 25% reductions in overall return rates

Inventory Turns

Inventory Turns = Annual Cost of Goods Sold / Average Inventory (at cost)**

**Average includes 13 periods……

Example: $10.0mil COGS / $ 3.1mil Avg. Inv = 3.23 annual turns

Setting Benchmark Goals

• Industry Standards• Internal History• Achievable/RealisticCorporate

• Historical• Cooperative/Joint• Achievable/RealisticDepartment

Benchmarks

Apparel Hard Goods

Returns 16-18% 5-8%

Cancels 7-9% 3-5%

Initial Fill-item 78-83% 87-89%

Initial Fill-order 77-80% 83-85%

Final Fill-item 91-94% 95-97%

Final Fill-order 90-93% 95-97%

Cost of a back order $8-13 $10-13

Informal Survey 2006-2007 27

Demand

• Why is it Important to Capture all Demand?

– Shadow/Lost Demand

• Are there limits?

• Not sure? – Test Order w/ mixed BO & in stock

Could add 10-20% to existing “sales”

Hidden Costs

Capturing all Demand– Lost Demand

• Are there limits?

– False conclusions• dropping wrong items/colors

• dropping wrong items/colors• Buying wrong items (overstock)

– “Hidden Impacts”• Increased list rental costs• Name acquisition costs• List analysis• Overstated fill rates• Lower fill rates and increased overstock across the board (example: Disney art cell)– greater risk with wide variation in price points offered

Planning & Forecasting30

Merchandising Strategy31

Merchandising Strategy

• Product Categories should be main focus of business– Target 10-12 categories *

– Sub-categories define further

– Don’t over assort, e.g. Shirts > 40% of total

– Avoid “Paradox of Choice”

• Consistent with Brand

• Provide a merchandising “statement” to the customer

* Define categories based on product offerings and “end use”. Be

careful of “themes” as comparison.

Assumptions:• Products fatigue if not reinvented or renewed• Best customers need more newness because of

their interest in the book and rate of purchasing activity

activity• The cost of paper and postage will continue to

increase• Competition will continue to increase in all

distribution channels. (MO/E-commerce).• No more than 1/3 of new products are winners

– Perform above book average– Are profitable

Axiom 1:

Sales in a typical catalog, regardless of product category, are distributed across items as follows.

Best selling 1/3 2.00x book averageMiddle 1/3 .80x book averageBottom 1/3 .26x book average

Axiom 2As the space given to an item is increased or decreased the impact on sales is equal to between 1/3 to 1/ 2 of the change. (aka “Rule of 50”)

the change. (aka “Rule of 50”)

e.g. If we increase the space devoted to an item by 60% we would expect the sales of

the item to increase between 20 and 30%.

Merchandise Assortment Planning(MAP)

“Adopting a well grounded merchandising plan

is far and away the single most important

thing a company must do for success.

The key to growing sales and profits, providing

better direction to the merchants invariably

results in better product selection.

More and better products lead to increased

response rates, which in turn expand the

universe of names that can be mailed

profitably, increasing circulation and sales.”

Start at the Beginning

Establish a Pre-Season “Kick-Off” meeting

• Representatives from all departments

Each Department should Discuss:

• Review of post season results

• “What worked, what didn’t”

• “Direction for new season”

• Potential “issues” that might arise

• Based on History, Analysis & “Gut”

• When?: 9-12+ months in advance

• Take A Simple & General Approach

• Improve majority of items - Don’t try for 100% accuracy on all items

accuracy on all items

“ALMOST” Right NOW is better than… “EXACTLY” Right Later !”

• Start at Category Level (Top Down – then Bottom Up)

• Why a Detailed Plan?

Planning Factors

What do we need to get started? (12+ months in advance?)

• Timing of Book (comparability)• Size of book (pages – excluding “sale grids”)• Density – based on historical

• Density – based on historical• Estimated Demand

Merchandisers “complaints”• The “MAP” is not written in stone and can be changed

Anything else required? No ---

Planning Factors (Category)

Four Key Factors:

• Item Counts (based on pages/density)

• Demand

• Space Allocations

• Space Costs (not “necessary” but…)

Planning Factors

• Item Counts

Question: How can we determine item counts 9-12+ months in advance?

counts 9-12+ months in advance?

Function of pages & density – which are relatively constant

Planning/Forecasting Factors

Item Counts (based on pages/density)

New vs. Repeat Item relationships

Space Allocation

Margin Targets & Price Points

Average Price Offered vs. Sold

Vendor Performance History

Estimated Item Profitability

Consider the “Paradox of Choice”

Category/Sub-Category Plan44

Additional Metrics (Category) Level

Performance Index (Aii)

• (% of demand / % of items)

Space Index

• (% of demand / % of space)

Sell Ratio

• (Item percent of page * cost per page) / Projected item $$ demand in Offer

Average Item Index (Aii)

• Item Demand / (Projected Item $$ Demand in Campaign/ Number of items)

Net (Ad) Margin

• Initial Margin % - Sell Ratio %

Creating Indices

Offer a Simplified Approach

Create a Reference Base of 1.0

Provide Management a Top Level Review

Establishes “Relationship” Analysis

Category (MAPS) View

Description Items % Dmd % Avg Itm P I Mrgn Space % S I SRNet Mgn

TOTAL DROP: 314 100.0% 5985.0 100.0% 19,061 1.00 57.9% 64.00 100.0% 1.00 43.1% 14.8%

GIFTS 87 27.7% 1310.7 21.9% 15,066 0.79 61.0% 15.00 23.4% 0.93 46.1% 14.9%

HOME 72 22.9% 1472.3 24.6% 20,449 1.07 54.6% 17.00 26.6% 0.93 46.5% 8.1%

APPAREL 53 16.9% 1897.2 31.7% 35,797 1.88 59.8% 15.00 23.4% 1.35 31.8% 28.0%

ACCESSORIES 102 32.5% 1304.7 21.8% 12,791 0.67 55.4% 17.00 26.6% 0.82 52.5% 2.9%

Additional Measures

Average Price Offered vs. Sold

Density

Detailed Space (Sqinch) Analysis

Returns

Overstock

AVERAGES

Overview Analysis: • Page Average• Spread Average• Item Average

• Item Average

If calculated as an index --- provides directional information and highlights anomalies.

Remember: “Almost Right NOW……”

Additional Tips & Tricks

Price Point Analysis

• Ensures you have covered key ranges

• Guides price point selections

Positive Profit Impacts

Horizon Planning - Benefits to Other Areas

• Creative costs can be substantially reduced

– Factor creative lead times to add/drop items to match inventory availability

match inventory availability

• DC supplied forecasts for bin “profiling” and setup

• Last minute exceptions - handled more efficiently

Positive Profit Impacts

• Inventory Buying can be “Scheduled” on a “Horizon” (and allow for less costly changes)

• Dramatic positive impacts to cash flow

• Reduced backorders & reduced overstock

• Higher fill rates (both initial and final)

• Increased “Bottom Line”

It’s All in RELATIONSHIPS !

Use Multiple Measures –

Referenced to Each Other• Category Share

• Item Count (density)

• Page Space

• Demand (Book & Item)

• Page or Spread Average

• Etc…...

Item Forecast Considerations54

Item Selections

Techniques to Improve Item Selection

• Use Assortment Plan as “control”

• Finance can create an “Open to Buy” control

control

• Consider “competition”

• Do not “over-SKU”

• Consider “extra costs” (e.g. creative, packaging, shipping, etc.)

Item Forecasting Factors

• Presentation (Size)

• Creative Factors

• Location in Catalog (key positions)

• Demand History

• Space

• Space Costs (Sell Ratio)

• Item Relationships (Ranking A - B - C)

• Demand History

• Price Points

• Circulation (Qty/Target)

• Item Counts (Density)

• Competition (Int/Ext; also pricing)

(Ranking A - B - C)

• Seasonality

• Indices

• Customer perceptions (item relationships or creative perception)

Methods of Forecasting

• Who’s unit forecast number?

Percent Done

• Trend curves required, control to total

• May need weighted curves for overlap books

Dollars: Forecast to dollars, buy to units

$ per k circ **

AII (Average Item Index)

Forecasts “tied out” – Top Down AND Bottoms Up

Percent Done

• What percent done is statistically sound?

• Using “book” percent done….

• Are all items equal?

• How many trend curves?

– When using “trend curves” generally 3 to 5 will suffice (Keep it simple!)

Percent Done

Advantage:

• Items can be forecasted quickly

• Excellent “benchmark”

Disadvantage:

• Not all items perform the same to book

• Results will create overstocks and out of stocks

Advantages: • Consistent Item Comparison Base within same drop/catalog

• Consistent Item Comparison Base

• Consistent Item Comparison Base between/across drops/catalogs

• When forecast changes – Index doesn’t change, only value does

Demonstrates Relationships (To Overall Average & Other Items)

Disadvantages:

• Space must be factored (full page, cover vs. average)

• Seasonality must be factored

*However, Space and Seasonality changes are easy to identify

Average Item Index

Item # Description drop 1 drop 2 drop 3 drop 4 drop 5 drop 6

Item A l/s shirt 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.3

Item B s/s shirt 0.4 1.4 2.0 5.0 2.5 1.8

Item C plaid shirt 1.0 0.8 1.0

Item D henley shirt 0.9 1.0 1.0

Item E pique polo 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0

Item F interlock polo 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9

Item # Description drop 1 drop 2 drop 3 drop 4 drop 5 drop 6

Item A l/s shirt 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.3

Item B s/s shirt 0.4 1.4 2.0 5.0 2.5 1.8

Average Item Index

Item B s/s shirt 0.4 1.4 2.0 5.0 2.5 1.8

Item C plaid shirt 1.0 0.8 1.0

Item D henley shirt 0.9 1.0 1.0

Item E pique polo 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0

Item F interlock polo 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9

Forecasting Repeat Items

• What % of items are Repeat vs. New Items

• Review History

• Identify Similar Items

• Consider “Wear Out” factors

• Review Relationships to other product

• Review Relationships to other product (especially competing new product)

• Profit Projections (Is the item still justified?)

– Suggestion: Add inventory carrying cost to margin calculation…

Forecasting New Items

• Identify Similar Items

• Varying Rules -- New Items should be > 20% of average

• Consider competition (Internal & External)

• Profit Projections (Is the item justified?)

Other Forecasting Factors

• Final Item Forecasts should NEVER be done in isolation

– Sum of the parts will ALWAYS be Greater than the Whole = OVERSTOCK

than the Whole = OVERSTOCK

• Forecasts should be done by drop AND revise balance of season (use of Aii makes this relatively easy)

Other Forecasting Factors

• Life of Item (> 1 Campaign)

• Review impact of creative changes

changes

• Size of picture• Page sequence change• Relationships to other items• Seasonality changes

Item Selection Tips

• Set Thresholds

– Margins (within category targets)

– Sell Ratio

– Return Rates

• Factor any Additional Costs

– Carrying Costs

– Special Prep or Shipping Costs

Item Selections

• Relationships

• Price Points (within Category)

• Competition (External & Internal)

• Ranking (A-B-C)

• Establish a Pro-Forma Item P&L(Sample included in this presentation)

Item Selections

• Consider Item Profitability

• Weigh Cost of Overstock vs. placements and minimums(e.g. Would it be worth to pay an up-

(e.g. Would it be worth to pay an up-charge to reduce minimums?)

• NEVER run an item – based solely on inventory

• Use sale “grids” only as a way to liquidate overstock

Additional “Advice”

• Mollo’s Rule of Forecasting

• Negotiate lowest base price

• Have all merchandise costs been considered?

considered?

• Additional prep charges

• Margin check

• Have all factors included?

• Set “trigger” thresholds

Internet Forecasting

Key Questions for Multichannel Environment

• What are true source of orders?

• Are matchbacks being done? What is truly

• Are matchbacks being done? What is truly incremental?

• (Industry Average only 10-20% are incremental?)

• “Search” results may be misleading

• Impact to forecasting – best sellers on web tend to be best sellers in other mediums

“Shopping online is like shopping in a department store with blinders on.” – Phil

Terry, CEO, Creative Good

Internet Forecasting

Forecasting (more like retail)• Items/pages changing (e.g. store shelves, rounders, etc.)

• Items/pages changing (e.g. store shelves, rounders, etc.)

• Are BO items removed from site?

• Ratios of hits, clicks, baskets, sales, etc.

• Statistical Forecasting (e.g. Historical Regression Analysis)

Placing Buys74

Placing Item “Buys”

• Buy only AFTER item plans complete**

– **Certain exceptions

• Consider the “horizon” of placements

• Financial considerations for “planned overstock” (caused by minimums)

overstock” (caused by minimums)

• Consider a catalog “walk-thru” to adjust buys (+ / -)

– Allows everyone – last chance for changes or adjustments (fine-tuning)

Open to Buy Plan

• The Master’s degree in Inventory Management

• Process will require: • Possible change in internal processes

• Possible change in internal processes

• Require effort to gather and regularly (e.g. weekly) report on information

• Willingness to be the “messenger”

• Someone must be the inventory budget “controller/banker”

Open to Buy Plan

OTB Provides:• A “budget” for inventory spending• An “overstock” budget

Benefits:

Benefits:• Both coincide with marketing adjustments• “Projections” allow advance warning• Decisions can be made in advance, during season

• Avoid spending “budget” twice• Management has the “control” tools

Improving Inventory Coverage

• Better Planning & Forecasting allows increased “Just in Time” Buying

• Longer Range Planning - Identifies “Horizon” of Need• Plan by “Horizon/Season” rather than “Drop”

• Plan by “Horizon/Season” rather than “Drop”

• Inherent “Creative Merchant” hurdle – overcome with 80/20 rule

• Planning Reduces “hidden costs”• Impact on Creative Schedules

• Some DC issues

Improving Inventory Coverage

• Buys can be Scheduled– Based on “Horizons” and “Lead Times” – allows greater flexibility for change

– Allows forecasts to be modified to improve fill rates (lower backorder costs, lower overstock, increased

(lower backorder costs, lower overstock, increased turns)

– Allows flexibility of removing items from future books where fill rates are at risk

– Allows early identification of potential overstock

• Risk/Rewards of Overbuying Can be Considered - In Advance

Channels of Liquidation

Internet

“Up sells”

Sale Book (unprofitable “myth”)

Package Stuffers

Outlet Stores

Tent Sales / Warehouse Sales

Jobbers

Barter

Note: Sale vehicles the objective

is “sell-thru” NOT Fill Rates

Forecasting Summary

Simplify the Process

Reduce exceptions

Use Averages

Use of Indices

• Indices Offer a Simplified Approach

• Indices create a Reference Base of 1.0

“Simple Checks” (Compare to Various Averages, Simple references, etc.)

Item ProfitabilityReviewing Item P&L 82

Contribution Levels

Variable

Gross Margin83

Item Profitability ModelItem Summary

Item # ABC123

Description Sample Item

Cost 11.63

Inbound freight 3.0% 11.98

Retail 30.00

Unit Estimate 15000

Extended Cost 179.7 (k)

Extended Retail 450.0 (k)

Cost % 39.9%

Mark-Up % 60.1%

% of tot dmd $ -you might expect to cxl 9.0% 40.5

Total Returns as % of ships/ $(k) 11.8% 48.3

Net Sales ($k) 361.2

Item Profitability ModelCOGS

Cost of Goods Sold

standard cost 144.2

overstock (inv not sold) 10.0% 36.1 -

Cost of overstock 3.0% 1.1

returns 3.0% 1.4

other 0% 0.0

Gross Margin ($k) 214.4

Item Profitability ModelVariable Expenses

Variable Cost

Promotion 0.00

OR promotion (% of demand) 27.0% 121.5

Cost of pick-pack-ship 10.0% 36.1

Miscellaneous Costs

Cost of Money/Borrowing 0.0% 0.0

Addn'l Overhead, warehouse space, etc. 0.0% 0.0

Contribution after Variable

($k) 56.8

% net 15.7%

Variable Cost

Promotion 0.00

OR promotion (% of demand) 27.0% 121.5

Cost of pick-pack-ship 10.0% 36.1

Miscellaneous Costs

Cost of Money/Borrowing 0.0% 0.0

Item Profitability ModelFixed Expenses

Addn'l Overhead, warehouse space, etc. 0.0% 0.0

Contribution after Variable

($k) 56.8

% net 15.7%

Contribution after Fixed

Fixed Exp 10.0% 36.1

Profit 20.7

% net 5.7%87

Communications88

Communication with Suppliers

• Understand Supplier Production Cycle & Process• Avoids unrealistic “demands”/expectations and delivery

complaints

• Discuss potential price increases, product changes, etc.

• Partner with Suppliers --- Listen to their needs

• “Godfather Rule”

• Provide suppliers estimated SKU forecasts

• Share catalog presentation (est. circ?) with suppliers

• They may partially “back up” buys

Communication with Suppliers

• Supplier Compliance Manual (be clear what you expect of Suppliers)

• Be reasonable and discuss Supplier “issues”– e.g. labeling issues, costs, delivery

– e.g. labeling issues, costs, delivery timeliness, if backorder chargebacks (explain overall costs), etc.

• Don’t create a P&L line for Supplier chargebacks – Build a Partnership

Six Tips for Culture/Team Building

Keep it Simple

• Everyone must feel comfortable with the culture. Leave room for individuality and personality.

Make it Global

• Everyone, including management, must buy in.

Make it Measurable

• Create specific guidelines and make them a part of the performance assessment process.

“Be Our Guest – Perfecting the art of Customer Service” by Disney Institute, 2001

Provide training and coaching

• Incorporate the elements of the culture into employee training and ongoing performance coaching. Encourage peer-to-peer coaching.

coaching. Encourage peer-to-peer coaching.

Solicit feedback and ideas from the team

• Foster a sense of ownership and expand the pool of creative input by allowing employees to contribute to the (show) project.

Recognize and reward performance

• Build employee motivation through formal and informal reward and recognition programs.

Several Rules of Business

Almost Right Now is Better than Exactly Right later…..”

A bad decision is better than no decision at all!

Do 1st things First, 2nd things NEVER!

Always tell the bad news first-never last

•Questions ?

Thank You !!

Monday, March 23

1:30 PM – 4:30 PM

Successful Inventory Management:Finding Profits in Your Business

Presented By: George Mollo

Company: GJM Associates, Inc.

www.gjmassociates.com

(845) 627-0788

Successful Inventory Management: Finding Profits in · PDF fileSuccessful Inventory...

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