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TL already exporte
d
Timor-Leste
TL without Sunrise
Aust-ralia
Oil and gas reserves per person
510 barrels
800 barrels
310 barrels
More than
1,180 barrels
Will last for how long at 2012 production rates
14 years 5 yearsMore
than 58 years
Only South Sudan, Libya (and Equatorial Guinea?) are more dependent on oil and gas exports than Timor-Leste is.
• Projected state revenues in 2014:…………..…… $2,380 million$2,213 million (93%) will be from oil (incl. $770m investment return)$ 166 million ( 7%) will be from non-petroleum sources
• 2014 State Budget:…………………………………… $1,500 million $903 million (60%) will be taken from the Petroleum Fund in 2014.$430 million (29%) more is from the Petrol. Fund in the past and future.
• Non-oil GDP in 2011:..………………………........... $1,047 million Petroleum GDP in 2011:…………….………………. $3,478 mill. (77%) Productive (agriculture & manufacturing) GDP …. $ 179 m (4%) and dropping
• Non-oil balance of goods trade: $535m imports, $16m exports (98% coffee)
• Petroleum “income” goes to the state, not the people.
Importa Sistema Elétrika Nasionál
ImportExports (non-oil)Power plant imports“Imports” of U.S. dollar notes
99This graph shows legal goods trade only. More than 80% of donor spending and 50% of state spending goes overseas.
The green ‘target’ in the back represents the amount which would have been spent if execution was uniform throughout the year.
Million US dollars
Transfers
Capital & Development
Minor Capital
Goods & services
Salaries & benefits
Timor-Leste has problems finding jobs for the 16,000 young people who will achieve working age during 2014.
In 2024, 28,000 more people will seek work each year, and the oil and gas may be gone. Today’s youth will have children of their own.
•What are Oecusse’s competitive advantages?
•Can ZEESM justify investing $4 billion?
Who will benefit: Oecusse residents or political leaders?
• IFC is encouraging Timor-Leste to build a port and airport far beyond realistic traffic expectations.
•How will the country pay for a $6 billion annual trade deficit after the oil is gone?
0
100,000
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2015
2016
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TE
U p
.a.
Base full import Base full export Base empty container High Scenario Low Scenario
Traffic forecast for Tibar Port
• In 2010, TL began the South Coast Petroleum Corridor.
• During 2011-2013, TL spent $35 million
• Total project costs could exceed $2 billion (much more if Timor-Leste pays for the refinery, pipeline or LNG plant).• The new budget allocates $46m in 2014 and $320m in 2015-2018, but leaves a lot out.
You will find more and updated information at
•La’o Hamutuk’s website http://www.laohamutuk.org
•La’o Hamutuk’s bloghttp://laohamutuk.blogspot.com/
Timor-Leste Institute for Development Monitoring and Analysis
Rua Martires do Patria, Bebora, Dili, Timor-LesteMailing address: P.O. Box 340, Dili, Timor-Leste
Telephone: +670 77234330 (mobile) +670 3321040 (landline)Email: info@laohamutuk.org
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