Statistical bulletin: UK trade: January 2016 · 2016. 3. 11. · Table of contents 1. Main points...

Statisticalbulletin:

UKtrade:January2016ThetotalvalueofUKimportsandexportsofgoodstogetherwithindicesofvolumeandprice,includinganearlymonthlyestimateofthevalueoftradeinservices.

Contact:KatherineKent

Releasedate:11March2016

Nextrelease:8April2016

Tableofcontents1. Mainpoints

2. MainfiguresforJanuary2016

3. UnderstandingandworkingwithUKtradestatistics

4. SummaryoflatestUKtradestatistics

5. Longer-termperspective

6. ValueofUKtradeingoods

7. Tradeingoods–analysisbyarea

8. Tradeingoods–geographicalanalysis

9. Volumeoftotaltradeingoods,excludingoilanderratics

10. Exportandimportpricesfortradeingoods(notseasonallyadjusted)

11. Tradeinoil

12. Tradeinservices

13. WheretofindmoreinformationaboutUKtradestatistics

14. Revisionstotradestatistics

15. Accuracyofthestatistics

16. Otherqualityinformation

17. Recordssheet

18. Backgroundnotes

19. Methodology

MainpointsUKtradeshowsimportandexportactivityandisamaincontributortotheoveralleconomicgrowthoftheUK.Alldataareshownonaseasonallyadjusted,balanceofpaymentsbasis,atcurrentpricesunlessotherwisestated.

TheUK’sdeficitontradeingoodsandserviceswasestimatedtohavebeen£3.5billioninJanuary2016,anarrowingof£0.2billionfromDecember2015.Thenarrowingisattributedtotradeingoodswherethedeficithasnarrowedfrom£10.5billioninDecember2015,to£10.3billioninJanuary2016.

ThenarrowingofthetradeingoodsdeficitbetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016reflectedadecreaseinimportsof£0.2billionto£33.2billionattributedtofallsinunspecifiedgoodsandfuels.However,excludingoilanderraticsthetradeingoodsdeficitwidenedby£0.5billionbetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016.

Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,theUK’sdeficitontradeingoodsandserviceswasestimatedtohavebeen£11.8billion;awideningof£3.5billionfromthe3monthstoOctober2015.

Betweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thetradeingoodsdeficitwidenedby£1.5billionto£32.3billion.Thiswideningreflectsa£2.3billionfallinexportsofgoods(ofwhich,chemicalsfellby£1.2billion)partiallyoffsetbya£0.8billionfallinimportsofgoods.

Betweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thetradeinservicessurplusnarrowedby£2.0billionto£20.5billion.DownwardsrevisionstoexportsofservicessincetheDecember2015UKtradepublicationhaveresultedinalargerannualtotaltradedeficitof£36.6billionin2015.

1.

MainfiguresforJanuary20162.

Table1:BalanceofUKtradeingoodsandservices,January2015andNovember2015toJanuary2016

£billion

Balanceoftradein

goods Balanceoftradein

services

Totaltrade

balanceEU Non-EU Total

2015 Jan -7.2 -3.9 -11.1 7.9 -3.2

Nov -8.0 -3.5 -11.6 6.9 -4.7

Dec -7.4 -3.0 -10.5 6.8 -3.7

2016 Jan -8.1 -2.2 -10.3 6.8 -3.5

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

Figure1:BalanceofUKtrade,January2014toJanuary2016

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

UnderstandingandworkingwithUKtradestatisticsShortguidetoUKtradeUKtradeshowstheextentofimportandexportactivityandisanimportantcontributortotheoveralleconomicgrowthoftheUK.Tradeismeasuredthroughbothimportsandexportsofgoodsand/orservices.Dataaresuppliedbyover30sourcesincludingseveraladministrativesources,HerMajesty’sRevenueandCustoms(HMRC)beingthelargest.

Thismonthlyreleasecontainstablesshowingthetotalvalueoftradeingoodstogetherwithindexnumbersofvolumeandprice.Figuresareanalysedbybroadcommoditygroup(valuesandindices)andaccordingtogeographicalarea(valuesonly).Inaddition,theUKtradestatisticalbulletinalsoincludesearlymonthlyestimatesofthevalueoftradeinservices.

3.

Thisbulletinfocusesontradeingoodsduetothecoverageandcomprehensivenessoftheadministrativedatasourcesavailableforgoodsasitiseasiertoquantifyandmeasure.Tradeinservicesismoredifficulttomeasure,andsourcedataisprovidedmainlyonaquarterlyorannualbasisprincipallyfromITIS(InternationalTradeinServicessurvey).Monthlyestimatesarederivedusingthisquarterlydata;thereforethedataarelessrobustonamonthlybasiscomparedwithgoods.

Asmoreinformationbecomesavailableontradeinservicesthisbulletinwillfocusonthevalues,volumesandgeographicbreakdownona3monthlycycledescribedbelow:

Month Tradeinservicesdetail

March,June,

October,December

Focusontheestimatedquarterlychangeinexportsand

importsofservicesbythemaintypesofservice

January,April,July,

OctoberFocusontradeinservicesinvolumeterms

February,May,

October,November

FocusontradeinserviceswithEUandselectednon-EU

countries

OurwebsiteTheUKtradeguidanceandmethodologywebpagescannowbefoundonourwebsite.ThesehavebeendevelopedtoprovidedetailedinformationaboutthemethodsusedtoproduceUKtradestatistics.Anyrecentuserrequestedtradedataareincludedonourwebsite.

UnderstandingUKtradeWemakeeveryefforttoprovideinformativecommentaryonthedatainthisrelease.Wherepossible,thecommentarydrawsonevidencefromothersourcesofinformationtohelpexplainpossiblereasonsbehindtheobservedchanges.However,insomeinstancesitcanprovedifficulttodrawoutdetailedreasonsformovements;consequently,itisnotpossibleforalldatamovementstobefullyexplained.

Tradestatisticsforanyonemonthcanbeerratic.Forthatreason,itisrecommendedtocomparethelatest3monthsagainstthepreceding3monthsandthesame3monthsofthepreviousyear.

Whenexaminingthetradeingoodsdata,oiland“erratics”,whicharehighvalue,lowvolumeproducts,areremovedfromsomeanalysisastheyareextremelyinfluentialontradeingoodsasawhole.Thereforewepublishdatainclusiveandexclusiveofthesecategories.Wealsoprovideaseparateanalysisofoilbecauseitissubjecttoerraticpricefluctuationsandthereforevolumedataisprovidedinmetrictonnesaswellasvalue(£million).

Strengthsandweaknessesofthedata

Strengths

Qualityoftradeingoodsdata

Thequalityofthesourcedatafortradeingoodsishighintermsofthetimeliness,comprehensivenessandcoverageandthislevelofqualitycompareswellinternationally.Thedataareusedacrossgovernment,businessandacademiaandfeedintoanumberofotheroutputsandpublications;includingGDPandbalanceofpayments.TheBankofEnglandusethetotalfigurestomakepolicydecisions,whereasgovernmentdepartmentssuchastheForeignandCommonwealthOfficeareinterestedintheindividualcountrydetail.

Wehavefrequentcommunicationwithoursupplierstodiscussquality,includingregularmeetings,telephoneconversationsandemailcorrespondence.Servicelevelagreementsareinplacetodefinethelevelofqualityexpectedinthedatareceivedandthesearereviewedannually.Datasuppliershavetheirowninternalqualityassuranceprocessestomeetthequalitystandardsoutlinedintheservicelevelagreementsandweworkcloselywiththemtounderstandthese.Suppliersarerequiredtoadviseusofanychangestothecollectionorprocessingofthedatatoensureourexpectationsarestillmet.

Whendataisreceivedbythetradeteamweconductourowninitialqualityassurance.Furtherqualityanalysisisthenconductedatseveralstagesofprocessing;thisisdetailedinaprocessmapandqualityassuranceplan.Ifthereareanyqualityconcernsweworkcloselywiththesuppliertoaddressthese.

Wehaveregulardiscussionswithusersonthequalityofourdataandprovidecomprehensiveexplanationsoftheterms,methodologyandprocessesweuse.Eurostat(http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat)isanimportantcustomerinfluenceandhelpsimprovethequalityofourdatathroughtaskforcemeetingsandbyproducingqualityguidelines(http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3888793/6182577/KS-TC-14-009-EN-N.pdf/fc46caf3-5c6d-4359-af64-af0a0952e231).

Timelinessofpublications

TheUKtradepublicationisverytimely(generally40daysaftertheperiodtowhichitrefers),helpingtoinformpolicyandtoassessUKeconomicperformance.

Weaknesses

Qualityandtimelinessoftradeinservicesdata

Wheretradeingoodshasonemaindatasupplier,therearealargenumberofsuppliersoftradeinservicesdata.Additionally,anumberarevoluntary,soitcanbedifficulttoestablishandmaintainthesamequalityassuranceprocessesandrelationshipswiththesebusinessesorsuppliers.

Duetothecollectionmethodsandcomplexitiesofquantifyingtradeinservices,dataislesstimelythantradeingoodsestimates.Thedataisprocessedquarterly,somonthlyforecastsaremadetoprovideacompletetradetotal.

Monthlyvolatility

Tradestatisticsforanyonemonthcanbeerratic.Forthatreason,werecommendcomparingthelatest3monthsagainstthepreceding3monthsandthesame3monthsofthepreviousyear,howeverwealsorecognisetheimportancetousersofanearlyestimateoftradethereforewecontinuetoproduceamonthlyestimate.

UKtradeNationalStatisticssuspensionDuetoaseriesoferrorsduring2014,theUKStatisticsAuthoritysuspendedtheNationalStatisticsdesignationofUKtrade(http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reports---correspondence/correspondence/letter-from-sir-andrew-dilnot-to-john-pullinger-141114.pdf)on14November2014.TheAuthority'sreassessmentofUKtrade(http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/assessment/assessment-reports/index.html)againsttheCodeofPracticeforOfficialStatisticshasbeencompleted.WearecommittedtomeetingtherequirementsandregainingNationalStatisticsstatusforUKtradeassoonaspossibleandwillkeepyouinformedofprogress.WeaimtopublishaUKtradedevelopmentplaninthenearfuture;detailingplannedimprovementstotheUKtradestatisticalcompilationprocessandassociatedmethodology.

OneoftherecommendationsofthereassessmentwastoconsultwithusersontheuseofUKtradestatistics.Theresultsofthisuserengagementsurvey(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/consultations-and-user-surveys/consultations/uk-trade-survey/feedback-from-consultations-on-ons-uk-trade-outputs.doc)canbefoundonourwebsite.

Toprovidefeedbackonthebulletinpleasecontactusviaemailtrade@ons.gsi.gov.uk

Thetradedevelopmentplan(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/uktradedevelopmentplan/2016)hasnowbeenlaunchedforconsultation.Weareseekingfeedbackby27May2016,anycommentsorfeedbackshouldbedirectedtotheUKtradeinbox(trade@ons.gsi.gov.uk).

DefinitionsandexplanationsAglossaryoftermsispublishedintheUKtradeGlossary(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/specific/economy/uk-trade/uk-trade-glossary.pdf)andtheUKBalanceofPayments-ThePinkBook,2015(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/united-kingdom-balance-of-payments/2015/index.html).

UseofthedataUKtradeisamaineconomicindicatorduetotheimportanceofinternationaltradetotheUKeconomy.Itisalsoaverytimelystatistic,providinganearlyindicatorofwhatishappeningmoregenerallyintheeconomy.

Inaddition,itisamajorcomponentof2othermaineconomicindicators:UKgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)andtheUKbalanceofpayments.ThismeansthatthereisathreefoldpotentialforUKtradestatisticstoinformthegovernment’sviewoftheUKeconomy,aswellastheviewsofothers,suchaseconomists,cityanalysts,academics,themediaandinternationalorganisations.

NotesontablesRounding:Thesumofconstituentitemsintablesdoesnotalwaysagreeexactlywiththetotalsshownduetorounding.

Symbols:..Notapplicable-Nilorlessthanhalfthefinaldigitshown.

SummaryoflatestUKtradestatisticsMonthlyanalysis

4.

ThedeficitontradeingoodsandservicesinJanuary2016was£3.5billioncomparedwithadeficitof£3.7billioninDecember2015.Thetradepositionreflectsexportsminusimports;thenarrowingofthedeficitwasattributedtoadecreaseinimportsbetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016.

BetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,totalexportswerebroadlyunchangedat£41.4billion,withexportsofgoodsfallingby£11.0millionandexportsofservicesrisingby£42.0million.Totalimportsdecreasedby£0.2billionto£44.8billionoverthesameperiod,primarilyduetoadecreaseof£0.2billioninimportsofgoods.

Thedeficitontradeingoodswas£10.3billioninJanuary2016;narrowingby£0.2billionfromDecember2015.Thisnarrowingreflectedadecreaseinimports(down£0.2billionto£33.2billion).Themostsignificantfallsinimportswereinunspecifiedgoodsandfuels,partiallyoffsetbyrisesinimportsofchemicalsandmachineryandtransportequipment.

Byarea,betweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,exportsofgoodstocountrieswithintheEUwerebroadlyunchanged,increasingby£12.0millionto£10.9billion.ImportsofgoodsfromcountrieswithintheEUroseby£0.7billion;importsofchemicals,particularlymedicinalandpharmaceuticalproducts,increasedby£0.3billion.Theriseinimportsresultedinadeficitof£8.1billionwithEUcountries,thelargestmonthlydeficitonrecord.

ExportsofgoodstocountriesoutsidetheEUwerebroadlyunchangedoverthesameperiod(down£23.0millionfromDecember2015).ImportsfromcountriesoutsidetheEUfellby£0.8billionbetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016;thiswaspredominantlyduetotradeinnon-monetarygold.ThesemovementsresultedinthetradeingoodsdeficitwithcountriesoutsidetheEUnarrowingby£0.8billionto£2.2billion.

3monthlyanalysisBetweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thetotaltradedeficit(goodsandservices)widenedby£3.5billionto£11.8billion.

Thedeficitontradeingoodswidenedby£1.5billion.Exportsofgoodsfellby£2.3billion,to£68.8billionreflectinga£1.2billiondecreaseintheexportofchemicalsanda£0.4billionfallinoilexports,thesedecreaseswerepartiallyoffsetbyanincreaseintheexportofaircraftof£0.5billion.Importsofgoodsfellby£0.8billion,mainlyreflectinga£1.3billiondecreaseinoil.

Betweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,theUK’sdeficitontradeingoodswiththeEUwidenedby£1.7billiontoarecord£23.6billion.ExportsofgoodstoEUcountriesfellby£1.3billionduetoexportsoffuels,whichfellby£0.9billion.ImportsfromtheEUincreasedby£0.5billion,mainlyreflectinganincreaseinimportsofchemicals(£0.4billion).

Therewasatradeingoodsdeficitwithnon-EUcountriesof£8.8billioninthe3monthstoJanuary2016,narrowingby£0.2billionfromthe3monthstoOctober2015.ExportsofgoodstocountriesoutsidetheEUfellby£1.0billion,reflectinga£1.1billiondecreaseinchemicals.ImportsofgoodsfromcountriesoutsidetheEUfellby£1.2billion.Thisdecreasewasmainlyduetoa£1.6billiondecreaseinfuels;ofwhich,£1.0billionwasoil.

AnnualanalysisIn2015,theUK’stradedeficitforgoodsandserviceswas£36.6billion,awideningof£2.2billionfrom2014.Thiswideningreflectsafallinexportsof£2.3billion;attributedentirelytoexportsofgoods,whichfellby£8.2billionannually.Exportsofservicespartiallyoffsetthisfallwithanannualincreaseof£5.9billion.Totalimportsfellby£0.1billionin2015.Importsofgoodsfell£6.0billionfromthepreviousyearbutwasalmostentirelyoffsetbya£5.9billionincreaseinimportsofservices.

Longer-termperspectiveInternationalcomparisonsTheperformanceof,andcontributionfrom,exportsandimportsremainanimportantindicatorofeconomicperformanceandthestructureofaneconomy.Growthofinternationaltradeisalsoanimportantindicatorofhowtheglobaleconomyisfunctioningandperforming.WhileUKnettrade(thebalanceofexportsandimports)hasaveraged-2.1%ofgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)between2010and2014;exportsandimportsofgoodsandservicesindividuallyaccountedforaround30%and32%ofGDPrespectively.TheshareoftheUK’snetexports,asapercentageofGDP,isnegativebecausetheUKtendstorunatradedeficit–importstendtoexceedexportsintheUK.

Figure2showsexportandimportsasapercentageofGDP,withG20countriesrankedintermsofthesizeoftheirexportsrelativetoGDP.Itshowswhichcountriesaremoreexport(andimport)intensiveinthestructureoftheireconomicoutput,andthatSouthKorea,SaudiArabiaandGermanyhaveexportsharesthatareabovemanyoftheotherG20economies.TheUKisaroundthemiddleofthegroupintermsoftheratioofexportstoGDP.

5.

Figure2showsthatmorethanhalfoftheG20economiesreportednegativebalancesontradein2014(dots),withTurkeyhavingthelargesttradedeficit,asapercentageofGDP,at-4.4%.However,becauseTurkey’stradedeficitimprovedcomparedwith2013,itmadeapositivecontributiontoGDPgrowthin2014–thesecondhighestcontributionamongsttheG20at1.6percentagepointsafterRussia(1.8percentagepoints).Russia,GermanyandSouthKoreahadthestrongesttradesurpluses(exportsexceedingimports)oftheG20economies,indicatingthateconomicactivityandgrowthintheseeconomiesismoreexport-orientated.

TheUK’stradebalancewasthefourthlowestintheG20shownin2014at-1.9%ofGDP.Althoughstillindeficitin2014,thetradedeficitimprovedby0.2percentagepointswhencomparedwithits2010to2014averageandimprovedby0.1percentagepointsfrom2013.

Figure2:TradeingoodsandservicesforselectedG20economiesasapercentageofGDP(nationalcurrency,currentprices,%)

2014

Source:OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

Figure3showsG20countries’tradepositionsincurrentprices,inUSdollars(adjustedusingconstant(purchasingpowerparity)(PPP's).ThisindicatesthatthemainG20tradingeconomiesareChina,theUSAandGermany.TheUK’sexportsareineighthpositionamongsttheselectedG20economiesinthechart,indicatingthatitisanimportantplayeringlobaltradeflowsbutbecauseofthesizeofitseconomyrelativetotheUSA,ChinaandGermanyitwillinherentlybelower.Figure2,whichadjustednettradeforthesizeofeacheconomybycomparingnettradewithGDP,indicatesthattradeisstillanimportantelementwithintheUK’seconomyandthattheUKisanimportanttradingeconomygivenitsrelativesizeinG20economies.

Figure3:TradeingoodsforselectedG20economies(currentprices,USdollars,constantpuchasingpowerparity(PPP))

2014

Source:OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

ValueofUKtradeingoodsMonthlycommentary

6.

InJanuary2016,theUK’sdeficitontradeingoodswas£10.3billion,narrowingby£0.2billionfromDecember2015.

Exportswerebroadlyunchangedat£22.9billioninJanuary2016.

Importsdecreasedby£0.2billion(0.5%)to£33.2billioninJanuary2016,from£33.3billioninDecember2015.Indetail:

aircraftfellby£0.2billion(26.8%)to£0.7billion

unspecifiedgoodsfellby£0.8billion(67.9%)to£0.4billion

thesedecreaseswerepartiallyoffsetbyincreasesinchemicals whichroseby£0.3billion(5.8%)to£4.7billionandroadvehicleswhichroseby£0.3billion(6.1%)to£4.4billion

3monthlycommentaryInthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thedeficitontradeingoodswas£32.3billion,wideningby£1.5billionfromthe3monthstoOctober2015.

Exportsdecreasedby£2.3billion(3.2%)to£68.8billioninthe3monthstoJanuary2016,comparedwith£71.1billioninthe3monthstoOctober2015.Indetail:

chemicals fellby£1.2billion(8.7%)to£12.1billion

oilfellby£0.4billion(9.3%)to£4.3billion

thesedecreaseswerepartiallyoffsetbyanincreaseinaircraftwhichroseby£0.5billion(17.8%)to£3.3billion

Importsdecreasedby£0.8billion(0.8%)to£101.1billioninthe3monthstoJanuary2016,comparedwith£101.9billioninthe3monthstoOctober2015.Indetail:

oilfellby£1.3billion(18.4%)to£5.7billion

this decreasewaspartiallyoffsetbyincreasesinunspecifiedgoodswhichroseby£0.9billion(46.5%)to£1.8billionandchemicals whichroseby£0.4billion(3.0%)to£13.5billion

Atthemaincommoditylevel,thedataareshowninTable2.

Table2:ChangeinUKmaincommodityvalue,January2016

£million

Monthlychange

1

3monthlychange2

Exports Imports Exports Imports

Oil(seesectionon"tradeinoil") -103 -60 -436 -1,292

Cars +223 +84 -114 -134

Consumergoodsotherthancars -72 +125 -114 +123

Intermediategoods +81 +256 +28 +7

Capitalgoods +69 +95 -452 -296

Chemicals +179 +253 -1,156 +388

Semi-manufacturedgoodsotherthan

chemicals-24 +50 -30 +6

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

Notes:

1MonthlychangeisJanuary2016comparedwithDecember2015.

23monthlychangeisNovember2015toJanuary2016comparedwithAugust

toOctober2015.

Figure4:ValueofUKtradeingoods,January2014toJanuary2016

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

Figure5:ValueofUKtradeingoodsexcludingoil,January2014toJanuary2016

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

WheretofinddataaboutUKtradeingoodsThevalueoftradeingoodsfiguresareavailableinTable1andcommodityfiguresareavailableinTables8,9and10ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).

Tradeingoods–analysisbyareaInJanuary2016,thedeficitontradeingoodswithEUcountrieswidenedby£0.7billionto£8.1billion.Thedeficitontradeingoodswithnon-EUcountriesnarrowedby£0.8billionto£2.2billion(Figure6).

7.

Figure6:BalanceofUKtradeingoods-EUandnon-EUcountries,January2014toJanuary2016

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thedeficitontradeingoodswithEUcountrieswidenedby£1.7billionto£23.6billion.Overthesameperiod,thedeficitontradeingoodswithnon-EUcountriesnarrowedby£0.2billionto£8.8billion.

EUanalysisBetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,exportstotheEUincreasedby£12.0million(0.1%)to£10.9billion.ThiswasattributedtoanincreaseinexportstoGermanyof£0.2billionandFranceof£0.1billion.TheseincreaseswereoffsetbydecreasesinexportstoBelgiumandLuxembourg(combined)andtheIrishRepublicof£0.1billioneach.

BetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,importsfromtheEUincreasedby£0.7billion(3.7%)to£18.9billion.ThiswasattributedtoincreasesinimportsfromtheNetherlandsof£0.3billionandBelgiumandLuxembourg(combined),Denmark,Italy,Slovakia,SpainandSwedenof£0.1billioneach.TheseincreaseswereoffsetbydecreasesinimportsfromGermanyandtheIrishRepublicof£0.1billioneach.

Betweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,exportstotheEUdecreasedby£1.3billion(3.7%)to£32.7billion.ThiswasattributedtodecreasesinexportstoFranceof£0.4billion,totheIrishRepublicof£0.3billion,toBelgiumandLuxembourg(combined)andtheNetherlandsof£0.2billioneach.

Betweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,importsfromtheEUincreasedby£0.5billion(0.8%)to£56.2billion.ThiswasattributedtoincreasesinimportsfromFranceof£0.4billion,theNetherlandsof£0.3billionandfromBelgiumandLuxembourg(combined)of£0.2billion.TheseincreaseswereoffsetbydecreasesinimportsfromGermanyof£0.7billionandSwedenof£0.2billion.

Atthecommoditylevel,thedataareshowninTable3.

Table3:ChangeinUKmaincommodityvalue(EU),January2016

£million

Monthlychange

1

3monthlychange2

ExportsImports Exports Imports

Oil(seesectionon"tradeinoil") -16 -5 -580 -258

Cars -14 -40 -184 -284

Consumergoodsotherthancars -47 +91 +120 +381

Intermediategoods +22 +186 +88 +194

Capitalgoods -9 +170 -260 -37

Chemicals +123 +348 -28 +402

Semi-manufacturedgoodsotherthan

chemicals-11 -5 -104 +106

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

Notes:

1MonthlychangeisJanuary2016comparedwithDecember2015.

23monthlychangeisNovember2015toJanuary2016comparedwithAugust

toOctober2015.

Non-EUanalysisBetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,exportstonon-EUcountriesdecreasedby£23.0million(0.2%)to£12.0billion.ThiswasattributedtodecreasesinexportstoSwitzerlandof£0.4billion,toSaudiArabiaandSouthKoreaof£0.2billioneachandtoRussia,MalaysiaandNorwayof£0.1billioneach.ThesedecreaseswereoffsetbyanincreaseinexportstotheUSAof£0.6billion.

BetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,importsfromnon-EUcountriesdecreasedby£0.8billion(5.6%)to£14.2billion.ThiswasattributedtodecreasesinimportsfromtheUSAof£0.5billion,fromCanadaof£0.3billionandfromAlgeria,Australia,SaudiArabiaandTurkeyof£0.1billioneach.

Inthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,exportstonon-EUcountriesdecreasedby£1.0billion(2.7%)to£36.1billion.ThiswasattributedtodecreasesinexportstotheUSAof£1.5billionandtheUnitedArabEmiratesof£0.2billion.ThesedecreaseswereoffsetbyincreasesinexportstoChinaof£0.6billionandtoSwitzerlandof£0.4billion.

Betweenthe3monthstoOctober2015andthe3monthstoJanuary2016,importsfromnon-EUcountriesdecreasedby£1.2billion(2.7%)to£44.9billion.ThiswasattributedtodecreasesinimportsfromChinaof£0.7billion,fromIndiaof£0.3billionandfromNigeria,SaudiArabia,SwitzerlandandtheUnitedArabEmiratesof£0.2billioneach.ThesedecreaseswereoffsetbyanincreaseinimportsfromCanadaof£1.0billion.

Atthecommoditylevel,thedataareshowninTable4.

Table4:ChangeinUKmaincommodityvalue(non-EU),January2016

£million

Monthlychange

1

3monthlychange2

ExportsImports Exports Imports

Oil(seesectionon'tradeinoil') -87 -55 +144 -1,034

Cars +237 +124 +70 +150

Consumergoodsotherthancars -25 +34 -234 -258

Intermediategoods +59 +70 -60 -187

Capitalgoods +78 -75 -192 -259

Chemicals +56 -95 -1,128 -14

Semi-manufacturedgoodsotherthan

chemicals-13 +55 +74 -100

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

Notes:

1MonthlychangeisJanuary2016comparedwithDecember2015.

23monthlychangeisNovember2015toJanuary2016comparedwithAugust

toOctober2015.

WheretofinddataaboutUKtradeingoods–analysisbyareaTradeingoodsbyareafiguresareavailableinTable2andvalueoftradeingoodswithselectedEUandnon-EUtradingpartnerfiguresareavailableinTables11and12ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).

Tradeingoods–geographicalanalysisMonthlyanalysisTheUSAremainstheUK’stopexportpartnerwithexportsof£3.9billioninJanuary2016,increasingby£0.6billionwhencomparedwithDecember2015.

GermanyremainstheUK’stopimportpartnerwithimportsof£4.8billion,decreasingby£0.1billionwhencomparedwithDecember2015.Anecdotalevidencesuggeststhisdecreasewasduetoafallintheimportofaircraft.

TherewererecordhighimportsfromtheCzechRepublic,RomaniaandSlovakia.ImportsfromtheCzechRepublicincreasedby9.2%to£0.5billion,fromRomaniaby3.5%to£0.1billionandfromSlovakiaby46.9%to£0.2billion.

Table5:ChangeinUKmonthlytradewithsignificantpartnercountries,January2016comparedwithDecember2015

8.

Exports(£million) Imports(£

million)

January

2016

1

month

January

2016

1

month

value change value change

1USA 3,914 +620 1Germany 4,807 -101

2Germany 2,533 +168 2 China 2,965 -47

3 France 1,439 +76 3Netherlands 2,846 +250

4Netherlands 1,423 -1 4 USA 2,493 -489

5 IrishRepublic 1,292 -115 5 France 2,022 +18

6 China 1,073 +6 6Belgiumand

Luxembourg1,942 +100

7Belgiumand

Luxembourg932 -64 7 Italy 1,369 +72

8 Spain 708 -46 8 Spain 1,239 +105

9 Italy 705 +18 9Norway 1,114 +138

10 Switzerland 437 -374 10 IrishRepublic 1,034 -124

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

Notes:

1Significanttradingpartnersdefinedastop10exportmarketsandimport

sources2015(seeattachedtable14).

2USAincludesPuertoRico.

Figure7:SignificantUKpartnercountries,1monthbalances,January2016

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

3monthlyanalysisInthe3monthstoJanuary2016,theUSAremainedtheUK’stopexportpartnerwithexportsof£10.9billion,decreasingby£1.5billionwhencomparedwiththe3monthstoOctober2015.Anecdotalevidencesuggeststhisisduetoafallintheexportoffuels.

Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,GermanyremainedtheUK’stopimportpartnerwithimportsof£14.9billion,decreasingby£0.7billionwhencomparedwiththe3monthstoOctober2015.Anecdotalevidencesuggeststhisisduetoafallintheimportofchemicals.

Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016therewererecordhighimportsfromBelgiumandLuxembourg(combined)andtheCzechRepublic.ImportsfromBelgiumandLuxembourg(combined)increasedby3.8%to£5.6billionandfromtheCzechRepublicby4.2%to£1.3billion.

Table6:ChangeinUK3monthlytradewithsignificantpartnercountries1,3monthlychangeinNovember2015toJanuary2016comparedwithAugusttoOctober2015.

Exports(£million) Imports(£million)

November2015

toJanuary2016

3

month

change

November

2015to

January2016

3

month

change

1 USA 10,938 -1521 1Germany 14,870 -695

2 Germany 7,531 +8 2 China 8,964 -700

3 Netherlands 4,191 -224 3 USA 8,553 -92

4 France 4,161 -400 4Netherlands 7,976 +324

5Irish

Republic4,072 -275 5 France 6,342 +443

6 China 3,117 +588 6Belgiumand

Luxembourg5,630 +207

7Belgiumand

Luxembourg2,946 -171 7 Italy 3,988 +115

8 Spain 2,180 -72 8 Spain 3,627 -87

9 Italy 2,084 -102 9Irish

Republic3,290 +13

10 Switzerland 1,903 +369 10Norway 3,188 -89

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

1Significanttradingpartnersdefinedastop10exportmarketsandimport

sources2015(seeattachedTable14).

2USAincludesPuertoRico.

Figure8:SignificantUKpartnercountries,3monthlybalances,November2015toJanuary2016

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

WheretofinddataaboutUKtradeingoods–geographicalanalysisTradeingoodsbyareafiguresareavailableinTable2andvalueoftradeingoodswithselectedEUandnon-EUtradingpartnerfiguresareavailableinTables11and12ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).

Volumeoftotaltradeingoods,excludingoilanderraticsBetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,thevolumeofexportsincreasedby0.7%:

carsroseby7.9%

9.

basicmaterials roseby6.3%

chemicals roseby4.1%

food,beveragesandtobaccoroseby3.7%

BetweenDecember2015andJanuary2016,thevolumeofimportsincreasedby3.2%:

food,beveragesandtobaccoroseby20.8%

basicmaterials roseby6.9%

intermediategoodsroseby4.9%

Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thevolumeofexportsdecreasedby4.2%whencomparedwiththe3monthstoOctober2015:

chemicals fellby9.8%

capitalgoodsfellby5.0%

Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thevolumeofimportsdecreasedby0.5%whencomparedwiththe3monthstoOctober2015:

capitalgoodsfellby2.6%

Atthecommoditylevel,thedataareshowninTable7.

Table7:ChangeinUKmaincommodityvolume,January2016

Monthlychange1 3monthlychange2

Exports

percentage

change

Imports

percentage

change

Exports

percentage

change

Imports

percentage

change

Food,beverages

andtobacco+3.7 +20.8 +2.5 +5.0

Basicmaterials +6.3 +6.9 -2.4 -0.8

Semi-manufactured

goods;ofwhich+2.1 +1.9 -6.7 +1.9

Chemicals +4.1 +2.8 -9.8 +2.8

Finished

manufactured

goods;ofwhich

-1.8 +0.9 -0.6 +0.3

Cars +7.9 +1.9 -2.6 +1.4

Consumergoods

otherthancars-8.0 +0.9 -1.1 +0.9

Intermediate

goods+2.0 +4.9 -0.3 -0.6

Capitalgoods +2.1 +0.9 -5.0 -2.6

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

Notes:

1MonthlychangeisJanuary2016comparedwithDecember2015.

23monthlychangeisNovember2015toJanuary2016comparedwithAugust

toOctober2015.

Wheretofinddataaboutvolumeoftotaltradeingoods,excludingoilanderratics

Thevolumeoftotaltradeingoods,excludingoilanderraticsfiguresareavailableinTable3ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).

Exportandimportpricesfortradeingoods(notseasonallyadjusted)InJanuary2016,comparedwithDecember2015,exportpricesincreasedby0.6%andimportpricesincreasedby0.2%.Excludingtheoilpriceeffect,exportpricesincreasedby1.5%andimportpricesincreasedby1.3%.

Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,whencomparedwiththe3monthstoOctober2015,exportpricesincreasedby0.1%andimportpricesdecreasedby1.3%.Excludingtheoilpriceeffect,exportpricesincreasedby1.2%andimportpricesremainedunchanged.

Figure9:UKtradeingoodsexportandimportprices,January2014toJanuary2016

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

10.

Wheretofinddataaboutexportandimportpricesfortradeingoods(notseasonallyadjusted)Theexportandimportpricesfortradeingoods(notseasonallyadjusted)figuresareavailableinTable3ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).

TradeinoilInJanuary2016,thebalanceoftradeinoilwasindeficitby£0.5billion,adecreaseof£43.0millionwhencomparedwithDecember2015.Oilexportsdecreasedby£0.1billionto£1.3billionandoilimportsdecreasedby£0.1billionto£1.8billion.

Inthe3monthstoJanuary2016,thebalanceontradeinoilwasindeficitby£1.5billion,narrowingby£0.9billionwhencomparedwiththe3monthstoOctober2015.Oilexportsdecreasedby£0.4billionto£4.3billionandoilimportsdecreasedby£1.3billionto£5.7billion.

Figure10:BalanceofUKtradeinoil,January2014toJanuary2016

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

WheretofinddataabouttradeinoilThetradeinoilfiguresareavailableinTables1and7ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).

11.

TradeinservicesInJanuary2016,theUK’sestimatedsurplusontradeinserviceswas£6.8billion.

ExportsinJanuary2016wereestimatedtohavebeen£18.5billionandimports£11.7billion.

Figure11:ValueofUKtradeinservices,January2014toJanuary2016

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

Informationontradeinservicesismainlyobtainedfromquarterlysurveys,insomecasesunderpinnedbylargerannualsurveys.Thismeansthatthedataforthelatestmonthsareuncertain.

InQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2015,thesurplusontradeinserviceswas£20.9billion;financialservicesandotherbusinessserviceswerethelargestcontributorswithasurplusof£9.9billionand£8.1billionrespectively.

For2015,thesurplusontradeinserviceswas£88.7billion;financialservicesandotherbusinessserviceswerethelargestcontributorswithasurplusof£40.0billionand£29.5billionrespectively.

12.

Analysisbyvolume(chainedvolumemeasureCVM)BetweenQuarter3(JulytoSeptember)2015andQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2015,exportsofservicesdecreasedby£0.5billionto£54.5billion.Themaincontributorstothedecreaseweretravelservices(£0.3billion)andotherbusinessservices(£0.3billion).Forthesameperiod,theimportofservicesincreasedby£0.3billionto£34.8billion,themaincontributorstothisincreaseweretravelservices(£0.4billion)andtransportservices(£0.3billion).Theseincreaseswerepartiallyoffsetbyadecreaseinotherbusinessservicesof£0.5billion.

BetweenQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2014andQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2015,exportsofservicesincreasedby£1.2billion.Withinexports,thelargestincreasewasseeninotherbusinessservicesof£2.3billion,thiswaspartiallyoffsetbydecreasesintravelservicesandfinancialservicesof£0.8billionand£0.7billionrespectively.Forthesameperiod,importsincreasedby£4.2billion,reflectingincreasesintravelservices,transportservicesandfinancialservicesof£2.3billion,£1.1billionand£0.8billionrespectively.

ExportsofservicesbyCVMin2015was£216.9billion,withotherbusinessservicesandfinancialservicesbeingthelargestcontributorswith£64.4billionand£45.5billionrespectively.ImportsofservicesbyCVMin2015was£168.0billion,withtravelservicesandotherbusinessservicesbeingthelargestcontributorswith£53.2billionand£42.2billionrespectively.

Figure12:UKtradeinservicesexports,chainedvolumemeasure,Quarter4(OctobertoDecember)2014toQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2015

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

Figure13:UKtradeinservicesimports,chainedvolumemeasure,Quarter4(OctobertoDecember)2014toQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2015

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

Afurtherbreakdownofnon-EUcountriescanfoundintheQuarter3(JulytoSeptember)2015UnitedKingdomEconomicAccounts(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa1-rd/united-kingdom-economic-accounts/q3-2015/index.html).

RevisionsInthisrelease,periodsfromJanuary2015areopenforrevision.

BetweentheDecember2015andJanuary2016UKtradepublication,the2015surplusfortradeinserviceshasbeenreviseddownby£1.6billion,whichreflectedadownwardrevisionof£1.2billioninexportsandanupwardrevisionof£0.4billioninimports.Themaincontributorsforthedownwardrevisioninexportswereinsuranceservices(£1.2billion),financialservices(£1.1billion)andtravelservices(£0.8billion).Thesewereoffsetbyanupwardrevisionintheexportofotherbusinessservicesof£2billion.Themaincontributorsfortheupwardrevisioninimportsweretransportservices(£4.1billion)andotherbusinessservices(£1.8billion),partiallyoffsetbydownwardrevisionsinfinancialservices(£3.3billion),insuranceservices(£1.2billion),constructionservices(£0.6billion)andgovernmentservices(£0.4billion).

BetweentheDecember2015andJanuary2016UKtradepublication,theQuarter4(OctobertoDecember)2015surplusfortradeinserviceshasbeenreviseddownby£1.5billion,whichreflectsadownwardrevisionof£1.0billioninexportsandanupwardrevisionof£0.6billioninimports.Themaincontributorstothedownwardrevisioninexportsweretravelservices(£0.6billion),telecommunication,computerandinformationservices(£0.4billion),financialservices(£0.4billion)andinsuranceservices(£0.2billion),offsetbyupwardrevisionsintheexportofotherbusinessservices(£1.0billion).Themaincontributorstotheupwardrevisioninimportswastransportservices(£1.3billion)andotherbusinessservices(£0.4billion),offsetbydownwardrevisionsintheimportoffinancialservices(£1billion).

Pleasenotethatthemajorityofrevisionstoservicesdatawithinthispublicationareduetoforecastswhichhavebeenreplacedbyactualdataandpartialestimates;improvedsupplierresponseratesforearlierquartershavealsocontributedtothechanges.

WheretofinddataabouttradeinservicesThetradeinservicesfiguresareavailableinTable1CONT.ofthepublicationtablesUKtradedataset(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/publicationtablesuktrade).

WheretofindmoreinformationaboutUKtradestatisticsOtherregularlypublishedUKtradereleasesSupplementaryquarterlydataanalysedbyproductaccordingtotheUKtradeingoodsbyclassificationofproductbyactivity(CPA2008)arealsoavailable.

13.

Thelatestreleaseon18DecembercoveredtheperiodQuarter3(JulytoSeptember)2015(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade-in-goods-analysed-in-terms-of-industry/q3-2015/index.html)andthedataisconsistentwithUKtradeNovember2015(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/november-2015/stb-uk-trade--november-2015.html)andcontainedrevisionsbackto1998followingmethodologicalchangesacrossNationalAccounts.Followinganinternalreviewofourpublicationsandawidersurveyofusers(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/consultations-and-user-surveys/consultations/uk-trade-survey/feedback-from-consultations-on-ons-uk-trade-outputs.doc)thereisnolongerastatisticalbulletinassociatedwiththerelease.Insteadwehaveprovidedalonger-termcommentaryalongsidethedatatables.

Thecompleterunofdatainthetablesofthisstatisticalbulletinarealsoavailabletoviewanddownloadinotherelectronicformatsfreeofchargeusingourtimeseriesdatawebsiteservice.Userscandownloadthecompletestatisticalbulletininachoiceofzippedformats,orviewanddownloadtheirownselectionsofindividualseries.

HMRevenueandCustoms(HMRC)publishOverseasTradeStatistics(https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/Pages/MonthlyTimetableofReleases.aspx)onthesamedayaswereleasetheUKtradedataeachmonth.TheseaggregateestimateswilldifferslightlyfromthosethatarepublishedbyusaspartoftheBalanceofPayments(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/united-kingdom-balance-of-payments/2014/index.html)(BoP),asthe2setsofdataarecompiledtodifferentsetsofrules.TheBoPpublicationshowsahighlevelpictureofUKtradeingoods,whereastheOTSpublicationshowsadetailedpictureoftheUK’stradeingoodsbycommodityandpartnercountry.

RecentlypublishedreportsonUKtradetopicsTheEconomicReview(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/economic-review/february-2016/art-economic-review-february-2016.html#tab-Trade)published02March2016includesanalysisoftradewithEUandnon-EUcountries.

On29January2016annualInternationaltradeinServicessurveyresults(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/itis/international-trade-in-services/2014/index.html)for2014werepublished.Thisreleasegivesinformationontheindustryofthebusinessesengagedintradeinservices.

HistoricarticlespublishedonUKtradeOn30October2015wepublishedtheannualBalanceofPaymentsPinkBook2015(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/united-kingdom-balance-of-payments/2015/index.html)whichaswellascontainingmoredetailedinformationontradealsoprovidedanoverviewofthetradedeficitinrelationtothecurrentaccountdeficit.

InourEconomicReview(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/economic-review/september-2015/art---economic-review-sept-2015.html)publishedon3October2015thereisfurthercommentaryonUKexportperformance(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/elmr/economic-review/september-2015/art---economic-review-sept-2015.html#tab-Exports-).

On1October2015,wepublishedanarticleontheeconomicperformanceoftheUK’smotorvehiclemanufacturingindustry(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/abs/annual-business-survey/car-production/sty-car.html).

On26June2015,wepublishedashortstoryontheimportanceofEUtoUKtradeandinvestment(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/international-transactions/outward-foreign-affiliates-statistics/how-important-is-the-european-union-to-uk-trade-and-investment-/index.html).

On9June2015,wepublishedashortstoryontheimportanceofChinatotheUKeconomy(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/international-transactions/outward-foreign-affiliates-statistics/how-important-is-china-to-the-uk-economy-/sty-china.html),includingthevalueoftheUKtradewithChina.

On6February2015,wepublishedanarticleontheRotterdameffect(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/december-2014/sty-trade-rotterdam-effect-.html)anditspotentialimpactontheUKtradeingoodsestimates.

On23January2015,wepublishedashortstoryexploringthereasonsbehindtheUKtradedeficit(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/november-2014/sty-record-trade-surplus-in-services-partly-offsets-record-trade-deficit-on-goods.html).

Publisheduserrequesteddataandanalysis

AdditionalstatisticaldataandanalysesforUKtradestatisticsthathavenotbeenincludedinourstandardpublicationsareavailableundertheEconomysectionofthepublisheduserrequesteddataandanalysispagesonourwebsite.

Methodologicalarticles

DetailedmethodologicalnotesarepublishedintheUKBalanceofPayments-ThePinkBook,2015(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/united-kingdom-balance-of-payments/2015/index.html).

RevisionstotradestatisticsTradeingoodsrevisionsInthisrelease,periodsfromJanuary2015areopenforrevision.

TherevisionstotradeingoodsfromJanuary2015reflectreviseddatafromHerMajesty’sRevenueandCustomsandotherdatasuppliers,revisedestimatesoftradingassociatedwithVATMTICfraud,latersurveydataontradepricesandare-assessmentofseasonalfactors.

RevisionstononmonetarygoldDuetothetimingofourgoldsurveydata,thenonmonetarygoldestimateinthelatestUKTradedatasetisforecast.Thiswillberevisedwhenmoreaccuratedatabecomesavailable.

TradeinservicesrevisionsInthisrelease,periodsfromJanuary2015areopenforrevision.

TheNationalaccountsrevisionpolicy(http://www.ons.gov.uk/methodology/methodologytopicsandstatisticalconcepts/revisions/revisionspoliciesforeconomicstatistics)canbefoundonourwebsite

14.

AccuracyofthestatisticsAccuracy:Tradeingoodsfiguresforthemostrecentmonthsareprovisionalandsubjecttorevisioninthelightof:

latetraderdata,revis ionstotradepricesandrevisedestimatesoftradingassociatedwithVATMTICfraud

revis ionstoseasonaladjustmentfactorswhicharere-estimatedeverymonth

Tradeinservicesestimateshavebeenderivedfromanumberofmonthlyandquarterlysources.Forcomponentswherenomonthlydataareavailable,estimateshavebeenderivedonthebasisofrecenttrends.Theresultsshouldbeusedwithappropriatecaution,astheyarelikelytobelessreliablethanthosefortradeingoods.

15.

Reliability:Revisionstodataprovideoneindicationofitsreliability.Table8showssummaryinformationonthesizeanddirectionoftherevisionsthathavebeenmadetothedatacoveringa5-yearperiod.Astatisticaltesthasbeenappliedtotheaveragerevisiontofindoutifitisstatisticallysignificantlydifferentfromzero.Anasterisk(*)showsthatthetestissignificant.

Table8:Revisionsanalysis,UKtrade,January2016

£million

Revisionsbetweenfirstpublicationandestimates12

monthslater

Valuein

latest

period

Averageoverthe

last5years(mean

revision)

Averageoverthelast5years

withoutregardtosign(average

absoluterevision)

Totaltrade

exports

(IKBH)

41,386 1018* 1030*

Totaltrade

imports

(IKBI)

44,845 873* 874*

Totaltrade

balance

(IKBJ)

-3,459 137 761

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics

OtherqualityinformationUKtradere-assessment

16.

TheUKStatisticsAuthoritysuspendedtheNationalStatisticsdesignationofUKtrade(http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reports---correspondence/correspondence/letter-from-sir-andrew-dilnot-to-john-pullinger-141114.pdf)on14November2014.TheAuthority'sre-assessmentofUKtrade(http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/assessment/assessment-reports/index.html)againsttheCodeofPracticeforOfficialStatisticshasbeencompleted.

Oneoftherecommendationsofthere-assessmentwastoconsultwithusersontheuseofUKtradestatistics.Theresultsofthisuserengagementsurvey(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/about-ons/get-involved/consultations-and-user-surveys/consultations/uk-trade-survey/feedback-from-consultations-on-ons-uk-trade-outputs.doc)canbefoundonourwebsite.

HMRCmethodologychangeforgasandrevisionstopastyearsHMRCtradestatisticsareamendingthemechanismforthedatasourceusedinthecompilationofNaturalGastradedwithnon-EUpartners(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/uktrade/uk-trade/may-2015/information-note--hmrc-methodology-changes-and-revisions-to-gas.html).Wewillimplementtheserevisionsinaphasedapproach.Moredetailscanbefoundonourwebsite.

EMUenlargementAsof1January2015,LithuaniajoinedtheEuropeanMonetaryUnion(EMU).ThereforetheEMUtotalsinthisUKtradereleaseincludeLithuania.

EMUcoverageThecoverageofEMUcountrieswasextendedtocoverCyprusandMaltafromOctober2008,SlovakiafromJanuary2009,EstoniafromJanuary2011,LatviafromJanuary2014andLithuaniafromJanuary2015.SomeEUandnon-EUbreakdownsofcommoditydataforchainedvolumemeasureswhichareavailableonrequestmaybelessreliablethanthecurrentpricedata.PleaseconsultKatherineKenton+44(0)1633455829ifyouareconsideringusingthem.

DatahavebeencombinedfortheUnitedStatesandPuertoRicoandforDubai,AbuDhabiandSharjah(theUnitedArabEmirates)fromJanuary2009onwards.EstimatesareseparatelyavailablefortheUnitedStatesandDubaiuptotheendof2008onrequest.

Erratics

Non-monetarygoldisnowincludedintheerraticsseries;alongwithships,aircraft,preciousstonesandsilver.IncompliancewiththeBPM6changes,non-monetarygoldwhichisheldasastoreofwealthisnowrecordedwithintradeingoods.

DeflationItiscommonforthevalueofagroupoffinancialtransactionstobemeasuredinseveraltimeperiods.Thevaluesmeasuredwillincludeboththechangeinthevolumesoldandtheeffectofthechangeofpricesoverthatyear.Deflationistheprocesswherebytheeffectofpricechangeisremovedfromasetofvalues.

Chain-linkedindices(chainedvolumemeasures),whichareindexedtoformthevolumeseriesinthisbulletin,differfromfixedbaseindicesinthatthegrowthfromoneyeartothenextisestimatedbyweightingthecomponentsusingthecontributiontovalueoftradeintheimmediatelyprecedingyear(effectivelyre-basingeveryyear).Thisseriesofannuallyre-weightedannualgrowthsisthen“chain-linked”toproduceacontinuousseries.

Theimpliedpricedeflators,derivedbycomparingcurrentpricedatatochainedvolumemeasuresdataarenotthesameasthepriceindicespublishedinthisstatisticalbulletin,becausetheformerarecurrentweightedwhilethelatterarebase(2012)weighted.

ChangesintradeassociatedwithVATMTICfraudmeanthatcomparisonsofvolumeandprices(bothincludingandexcludingtradeassociatedwithVATMTICfraud)shouldbetreatedwithagreatdealofcaution.

InterpretingthedataInmonthswherequarterlyand3-monthlyendingpercentagechangesforindexdatacoincide,theremaybesmalldifferencesbetweenthedataformethodologicalreasons.Quarterlydataaretheindexedformofanunderlyingconstantprice(forvolumeindices)orconsistentquantity(forpriceindices)series.3-monthendingdataaretheaverageoftheindexdatainthatperiod.

SeasonaladjustmentSeasonaladjustmentaimstoremoveeffectsassociatedwiththetimeoftheyearorthearrangementofthecalendarsothatmovementswithinatimeseriesmaybemoreeasilyinterpreted.

RecordssheetTheUKtraderecordinformationforJanuary2016(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/uktraderecordssheet)canbeaccessedonourwebsite.

17.

Backgroundnotes1. Thismonth’srelease

What'snew-tradedevelopmentplan

Thetradedevelopmentplan(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/uktradedevelopmentplan/2016)hasnowbeenlaunchedforconsultation.Weareseekingfeedbackby27May2016,anycommentsorfeedbackshouldbedirectedtotheUKtradeinbox(trade@ons.gsi.gov.uk).

2. SpecialeventsAnarticleoutliningtheONSpolicyonspecialevents(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/general-methodology/special-events-group/index.html)isavailableonourwebsite.

3. CodeofPracticeforOfficialStatisticsNationalStatisticsareproducedtohighprofessionalstandardssetoutintheCodeofPracticeforOfficialStatistics(http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/the-national-statistics-standard/code-of-practice/index.html).Theyundergoregularqualityassurancereviewstoensurethattheymeetcustomerneeds.Theyareproducedfreefromanypoliticalinterference.

4. SummaryqualityreportAqualityandmethodologyinformationreportforthisstatisticalbulletinandassociateddatacanbefoundonourwebsite.

5. PublicationpolicyAlistoftheorganisationsgivenpre-publicationaccesstothecontentsofthisbulletincanbefoundonourwebsite.

6. Detailsofthepolicygoverningthereleaseofnewdataareavailable(http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/code-of-practice/index.html)orfromtheMediaRelationsOfficeemail:media.relations@ons.gsi.gov.uk.TheseNationalStatisticsareproducedtohighprofessionalstandardsandreleasedaccordingtothearrangementsapprovedbytheUKStatisticsAuthority.

18.

ContactdetailsforthisstatisticalbulletinKatherineKenttrade.in.goods@ons.gsi.gov.ukTelephone:+44(0)1633455829

MethodologyUKtradeQMI(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/qmis/uktradeqmi)

19.