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State of College Admission2009 Report
David A. Hawkins Director of Public Policy and Research
NACAC
Melissa E. ClinedinstAssistant Director of Research
NACAC
Components of Report• Counseling Trends Survey• Admission Trends Survey• Effects of the Economy Survey• External Data
– US Department of Education IPEDS Data– US Census Bureau– College Board Annual Survey– Other Education Organizations
Chapter 1: The Flow of Students
• Number of HS Grads Peaked at 3.33 Million for 2008–09– Wide Variations By State and Region– Racial/Ethnic Composition Changing
• Total College Enrollment Will Increase At Least Through 2017
• Racial/Ethnic Imbalance in College Enrollment
Projected Percentage Change in Public High School Graduates, by State: 2004–05 to 2017–18
SOURCE: Projections of Education Statistics to 2017. (2008). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Figure 23).
Enrollment in Postsecondary Education In Comparison to Share of College-Aged Population
White Black Hispanic Asian/Pacific
Islander
American Indian/ Alaska Native
Percent of pop. age 18– 2462.0 15.1 17.3 4.3 1.3
Percent of racial/ethnic group enrolled in postsecondary education
Total64.4 13.1 11.4 6.7 1.0
Control
Public64.0 12.4 12.5 7.0 1.1
Private65.5 15.0 8.2 5.8 0.8
Type
Four-year or higher66.9 12.4 8.7 6.5 0.9
Two-year60.1 14.2 16.1 6.9 1.2
SOURCES: Digest of Education Statistics. (2008). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics. (Table 227).
Cumulative Percent Change in US Public High School Graduates Relative to 2004–05 by Race/Ethnicity
2004
-05
2006
-07
2008
-09
2010
-11
2012
-13
2014
-15
2016
-17
2018
-19
2020
-21
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
American Indian/Alaska NativeAsian/PacificIslanderBlack HispanicWhite
SOURCE: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. (2008). Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State and Race/Ethnicity 1992–2022.
Chapter 2. Applications and Selectivity
• Application Volume Continues to Increase
• Share of Enrollment By Selectivity
• Recent Trends in Selectivity and Yield
Percentage of Colleges Reporting Change from the Previous Year in Number of Applications for Fall Admission:
1996 to 2008
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
53
6764
73 7471
74 76
6773 75 78 75
3225
1916 17 19 18 16
2320 18 20 18
158
1411 9 10 8 8 10
7 73
7
Number of applica-tions increased
Number of applica-tions decreased
Number of applica-tions stayed the same
Source: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008
Percentage of Students Submitting Three or More and Seven or More Applications: 1990 to 2008
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
61 60 62 63 62 61 62 61 63 64 67 67 67 70 68 71 71 7174
9 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 16 16 17 18 1922
Submitted three or more applicationsSubmitted seven or more applications
SOURCES: Pryor, J.H., Hurtado, S., Saenz, V.B., Santos, J.L., and Korn, W.S. (2007). The American Freshman: Forty Year Trends, 1966–2006. Los Angeles: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA. Pryor, J.H. et al. (2008). The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 2008. Los Angeles: Higher Education Research Institute, UCLA.
Applications and Enrollment By SelectivityAverage
Applications Per Institution
National Share of Applications
National Share of Full Time, First-Year Students
Enrolled
Selectivity
Accept fewer than 50% of applicants
6,123 31.1 18.3
50 to 70%3,804 39.3 38.9
71 to 85%2,788 24.4 33.0
More than 85%1,267 5.2 9.7
SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2006-07 and 2007-08). U.S. Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Selectivity
0.713 0.69600000000000
1
0.69700000000000
1
0.68800000000000
1
0.68200000000000
1
0.67200000000000
1
0.66800000000000
1
Yield
0.491 0.485 0.472 0.466 0.453 0.448 0.452
32.5%
42.5%
52.5%
62.5%
72.5%
Selectivity and Yield Rates at Four-Year Postsecondary Institutions, 2001 – 2007
SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center. (2001–02 through 2007–08). US Department of Education, Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.
Trends in Admission Data, 2002 - 2006
Percent Change 2002 - 2006
Number of Applications 24.2
Number of Acceptances 20.4
Number of Enrolled Students 9.8
Average Acceptance Rate -3.9%
Average Yield Rate -8.9%
SOURCE: Chart compiled by the National Association for College Admission Counseling as a supplement to the 2009 State of College Admission Report using data from the US Department of Education's Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) online Data Center.
Chapter 3. Admission Strategies
• Early Decision Application Volume Tapers Off– Only 49 Percent of Institutions Reported Increases
• Early Action Application Growth Stalls, But Still High– 65 Percent of Colleges Report Increases
• Wait List Admission Changes Slim– 30 Percent, 13 Percent at Most Selective Colleges
Early Decision Early Action Wait List
Total 17.2% 20.1% 35.0Control
Public 3.2 16.1 33.7Private 22.5 21.7 35.6
Selectivity
Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 50.9 29.1 78.250 to 70% 12.6 25.0 33.071 to 85% 11.4 17.4 28.7More than 85% 6.9 10.5 10.5
Yield
Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students 24.5 41.3 56.430 to 45% 20.8 15.6 34.946 to 60% 3.2 12.7 17.5More than 60% 14.0 6.8 18.2
Percentage of Colleges Using Early Decision, Early Action, and Wait Lists:Fall 2008
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008
Mean
Mean percentage of all applications received at ED colleges through Early Decision 6.4%
Mean percentage of Early Decision applications accepted (ED selectivity rate) 67.4
Mean overall selectivity rate for institutions with Early Decision 53.9
Mean percentage of admitted ED students who enrolled (ED yield rate) 87.9
Mean overall yield rate at ED colleges 34.3
Key Statistics for Early Decision Colleges: Fall 2008
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends, 2008.
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008
Mean
Mean percentage of all applications received at EA colleges through Early Action 33.8%
Mean percentage of Early Action applications accepted (EA selectivity rate) 68.9
Mean overall selectivity rate for institutionswith Early Action 63.2
Mean percentage of admitted EA students who enrolled (EA yield rate) 34.2
Mean overall yield rate at EA colleges 32.0
Key Statistics for Early Action Colleges: Fall 2008
Mean Percentage of Students Admitted off the Wait List: Fall 2008Mean Percent Admitted
Total 30.3
Control
Public 33.7
Private 29.1
Selectivity
Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 13.2
50 to 70% 33.4
71 to 85% 49.1
More than 85% 50.2
Yield
Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students 35.5
30 to 45% 19.6
46 to 60% 48.5
More than 60% 39.7
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008.
Chapter 4. Factors in the Admission Decision
• Top Factors Unchanged– Grades in College Prep Courses– Strength of Curriculum– Test Scores– Overall GPA
• New Questions– Essay Verification– Review Social Networking Profiles
FactorConsiderable importance
Moderate importance
Limited importance No importance
Grades in college prep courses 74.9% 15.7% 5.0% 4.4%
Strength of curriculum 61.5 24.9 8.6 5.0
Admission test scores (SAT, ACT) 54.3 30.6 10.7 4.5
Grades in all courses 52.1 34.4 9.6 3.9
Essay or writing sample 26.6 29.9 22.7 20.9
Teacher recommendation 21.1 38.3 29.7 11.0
Student’s demonstrated interest 20.9 28.7 27.2 23.3
Counselor recommendation 20.4 41.9 26.5 11.2
Class rank 19.2 33.1 32.2 15.4
Interview 11.0 22.4 30.4 36.1
Subject test scores (AP, IB) 7.8 27.0 32.7 32.4
Extracurricular activities 7.4 36.6 37.5 18.5
SAT II scores 6.7 8.2 24.4 60.7
Portfolio 6.7 7.9 34.7 50.8
State graduation exam scores 3.9 14.2 29.3 52.6
Work 1.8 16.9 41.3 40.1
Percentage of Colleges Attributing Different Levels of Importance to Factors in the Admission Decision: Fall 2008
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008
Factors by Institutional Characteristics• Public vs. Private
– Private: essay, interview, counselor and teacher recommendations, work, extracurricular activities, subject test scores (AP, IB), the portfolio, and demonstrated interest
– Public: class rank• Enrollment Size
– Smaller: interview, essay, counselor and teacher recommendations, demonstrated interest, portfolio, state graduation exams
• Selectivity– More Selective: grades in college prep courses, strength of
curriculum, essay, counselor and teacher recommendations, class rank, extracurricular activities, work, portfolios, subject test scores, and SAT II scores
Considerable importance
Moderate importance
Limited importance No importance
Race/ethnicity 6.7 16.7 16.1 60.6
First-generation status 6.1 18.5 23.0 52.4
Gender 3.6 8.2 16.1 72.1
Alumni relations 3.6 14.8 32.8 48.8
High school attended 3.3 18.0 26.7 52.0
State or county of residence 1.2 12.3 23.2 63.3
Ability to pay 2.7 6.0 14.7 76.6
Percentage of Colleges Attributing Importance to the Influence of Student Characteristics on the Evaluation of Factors in the Admission Decision: Fall 2008
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008
21% of Colleges Revoked Admission Offers in 2008
Falsification ofapplication information
Disciplinary issue
Final grades
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
29.0
35.0
65.0
Percentage of Colleges that Revoked Admission Offers for Various Reasons (Among Those That Revoked Any Offers)
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2007.SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008
• Only 5 percent of colleges reported that they take steps to verify applicant essays
• About 8 percent of colleges reported that they review the social networking profiles of prospective students in some cases
Essay Verification and Review of Social Networking Profiles
Chapter 5. College Counseling In High Schools
• Student-to-Counselor Ratios
• Time Spent on College Counseling
Student-to-Counselor Ratios by School Characteristics
Students Per Counselor Students Per College Counselor
Total 246 316
Control
Public 265 331
Private 167 250
Private non-parochial 161 239
Private parochial 177 270
Enrollment
Fewer than 500 190 219
500 to 999 257 315
1,000 to 1,499 269 354
1,500 to 1,999 290 365
2,000 or more 380 608
FRPL
0 to 25% 273 338
26 to 50% 253 309
51 to 75% 265 352
76 to 100% 235 351
SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2008
Percentage of Time on College Counseling
Private Schools
54.4
12.3
11.2
9.4
2.4 64.3
Public Schools
22.8
24.8
20.2
14.8
7.9
4.5 5College counsel-ingHigh School coursesPersonal needsTestingJob counselingTeachingOther
SOURCE: NACAC Counseling Trends Survey, 2008
Chapter 6. The Admission Office
• Application-to-Admission Officer Ratios
• Cost to Recruit
Application-to-Admission Officer Ratios
Applications per admission officer
Total 459Control
Public 825Private 333
Enrollment
Fewer than 3,000 2483,000 to 9,999 75610,000 or more 1091
Selectivity
Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 71250 to 70% 49671 to 85% 380More than 85% 316
SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008.
Cost-to-Recruit
Applicant Admitted Enrolled
Total $506.47 $865.13 $2,382.97
Control
Public 298.65 457.22 973.96
Private 590.26 1,021.90 2,954.13
Enrollment
Fewer than 3,000 691.48 1,139.14 3,173.72
3,000 to 9,999 325.43 648.16 1,864.03
10,000 or more 275.96 381.91 854.20
Selectivity
Accept fewer than 50% of applicants 400.10 1,115.89 3,105.24
50 to 70% 498.42 831.89 2,257.99
71 to 85% 505.16 717.37 2,150.70
More than 85% 728.10 1,009.58 2,284.48
Yield
Enroll fewer than 30% of admitted students493.68 712.05 2,916.52
30 to 45% 479.20 855.88 2,347.48
46 to 60% 479.77 770.63 1,593.97
More than 60% 762.98 1,759.96 2,921.15
NOTE: Figures in italics should be interpreted with caution due to low sample size (fewer than 15 institutions per cell).SOURCE: NACAC Admission Trends Survey, 2008.
Chapter 7. Effects of the Economy on the 2008-09 Admission Cycle
•Changes in Students’ Enrollment Plans
•Increasing Student-to-Counselor Ratios
•Increased Demand for Financial Aid
•Strategies Used by Colleges to Meet Enrollment Goals
Apps. Per Student CC vs. 4-Year Public vs. Private Delay College Forgo Dream School
Inc. Same Dec. Inc. Same Dec. Inc. Same Dec. Inc. Same Dec. Inc. Same Dec.
Total 39.2% 46.3% 14.5% 36.9% 59.1% 4.0% 59.6% 35.4% 5.0% 14.5% 83.8% 1.7% 70.7%
27.5%
1.7%
Control
Public 37.6 45.9 16.5 62.9 34.2 2.9 65.4 28.2 6.4 25.4 72.9 1.7 75.7 21.3 3.0
Private 40.1 46.6 13.3 21.3 73.9 4.7 56.3 39.5 4.2 8.1 90.1 1.7 67.8 31.2 1.0
Percentage of Schools Reporting Change in Students’ Behavior During the Admission Process for Fall 2008-09,
as compared to Fall 2007-08
SOURCE: NACAC Effects of the Economy on the Admission Process Member Survey, Part I, May 2009
Public
Private
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
45%
17%
50%
76%
6%
8%
DecreaseSameIncrease
Public
Private
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
44
8
Series 1
Students Per Counselor
Percent Reporting Change Average Change
Student Counselor Ratios
SOURCE: NACAC Effects of the Economy on the Admission Process Member Survey, Part II, August/September 2009.
Average Loan Amount
# of Students Offered Self-Help Aid
Total Institutional Grant Aid Awarded
# of Students Offered Institutional Grant Aid
Financial Aid Applications
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
62%
68%
76%
74%
89%
36%
31%
19%
22%
9%
2%
2%
6%
4%
1%
DecreaseSameIncrease
Percentage of Admission Offices Reporting Change
Admission Statistics–Financial Aid
SOURCE: NACAC Effects of the Economy on the Admission Process Member Survey, Part II, August/September 2009.
Transfer
Freshmen
Total
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
54%
48%
58%
25%
17%
21%
21%
35%
21%
Decrease Same Increase
Transfer
Freshmen
Total
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
72%
58%
71%
45%
44%
52%
Private Public
Percent Reporting Change Percent Reporting Increases by Type
Admission Statistics–Enrollment
SOURCE: NACAC Effects of the Economy on the Admission Process Member Survey, Part II, August/September 2009.
Initiated a Wait List for First Time
Increased Deferred Admission Offers
Accepted More Students From Wait List
Extended Usual Application Deadline
Compiled a Longer Waitlist
Greater # of ED/EA Applicants Accepted
Offered More Students Grant Aid
Larger Grant Aid Packages
Greater # of Applicants Accepted
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
7%
10%
21%
22%
22%
26%
52%
53%
67%
Admission Office Strategies To Meet Enrollment Goals
SOURCE: NACAC Effects of the Economy on the Admission Process Member Survey, Part II, August/September 2009.
We Welcome Your Input
Melissa Clinedinst mclinedinst@nacacnet.org703-299-6854
David Hawkinsdhawkins@nacacnet.org703-299-6809
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