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A
Pepper
Technical Recommendations Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation
Pepper NCDEX June-12 Trading Range : 36100-39860
Review Pepper prices continued the down trend for 3rd consecutive week on back of prevailing bearish sentiments across the
domestic as well as international markets. From starting of the week futures prices traded on negative note on
continued corrections. Exchange interventions in form of higher margins on long side along with that introduction of
staggered delivery mechanisms washed away small and medium traders from the market. However, later n prices took
smart recovery on short covering at lower levels but prices failed to sustain the gains. Prevailing bearish sentiments
across the major growing countries also reflected in Indian market. Therefore, on cues from spot activity futures
remained down and ended the week on negative note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeMay-12 37400 38100 35940 36185 -3.39 8834 -35.38 2043 -42.98Jun-12 37900 38975 37030 38115 -1.04 3553 93.50 1811 101.93Jul-12 38300 39450 37600 38740 -0.92 128 0.78 132 18.94
Outlook
Pepper May prices are expected to trade on weaker note on back of prevailing mixed sentiments. Prevailing bearish
sentiments in global pepper market amid higher supplies from Vietnam is likely to keep prices under pressure.
According to trade sources, despite of tight supply situation prices are remaining down due to subdued domestic
demand. However, any sudden changes in global pepper market fundamentals are likely to cushion prices at lower
levels.
Factors to watch out
Average daily prices at spot market of Kochi declined to `36,200 and `37,700 per quintal, against `36,800 and
`38,300 per quintal reported during previous week for Ungarbled and MG-1 grade respectively
Indian parity in the international market was at $7,150 per MT (c&f) for Europe and $7,450 per MT (c&f) for the
USA and remained competitive and fell in line with others
Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses were at 1610 tonnes as on May 10, 2011
As per Spices Board data, international price of pepper in New York market remained steady at $7.61 per kg during
the week ended May 04, 2012 but quoted higher against $6.84 per kg quoted in the same period last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3May-12 33223 34582 35383 36185 37543 38902 39703Jun-12 35160 36095 37105 38115 39050 39985 40995Jul-12 35893 36747 37743 38740 39593 40447 41443
NCDEX
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36800
37600
38400
39200
40000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Open Interest Volume Price
Derivative Analysis (June) Calendar Spread: July- June
According to derivative analysis, prices have declined while volumes and open interest have improved. This indicates that
new money is coming into the market, showing aggressive new short selling. This scenario will prove out a continuation of
a downtrend.
Technical
200
400
600
800
1000
Contango
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Jeera
Technical Recommendations
Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation
Jeera NCDEX June-12 Buy at 13000-13050 TP 13630/14140 SL below 12700
Review Jeera prices witnessed decent corrections on profit booking at higher levels during the week ended on May 12th. From
starting of week futures prices traded on positive note on back of rising demand at spot front. Good export demand
from Bangladesh and UAE resulted in bulk buying activity at spot market Unjha. However, later on prices turned
negative due to sudden rise in arrivals. Investors also booked their profits at higher levels which resulted in drastic fall
in prices. Therefore, on cues from prevailing fundamentals futures prices also trade on lower note and ended the week
on negative note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeMay-12 12230 13520 12180 13255 -1.55 53094 -28.57 8649 -41.69Jun-12 13600 14132.5 13182.5 13495 -0.90 57003 32.24 18024 10.52Jul-12 12902.5 13120 12725 12925 -6.54 2493 -65.86 3003 -62.45
Outlook
Jeera prices are projected to recover from earlier losses on fresh buying at lower levels in coming week. Strong demand
from exporters is expected to support prices. However, if arrivals increase further at spot front amid rising prices then
we can see some correction in prices during the week. Nevertheless, overall trend is expected to remain positive intact
due to prevailing poor sowing progress in Syria and Turkey. Decline in production in these 2 countries are likely to shift
export demand towards India and might support prices to remain on positive side.
Factors to watch out
Arrivals at spot market of Unjha increased to 25000-26000 bags against 15000-20000 bags reported during
previous week (1 bag= 60 Kg)
In the global market, Turkey’s cumin seed quoted at USD 3,200 per ton (fob), while, Indian cumin seed quoted at
USD 2,600 per ton (c&f) Singapore and 2,750 per ton (c&f) New York.
Cumin seed sowing in Syria has been reported less around 30%. On the regular disturbance in Syria there is lack of
laborers and on the unfavorable weather conditions cumin seed production is expected not more than 50 %
NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 10,842 tonnes as on May 10, 2011
As per Spices Board data, international price of jeera in New York market remained steady to $3.75 per kg during
the week ended May 04, 2012 however, was down against $3.79 per kg reported in the same period last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3May-12 11110 11645 12450 13255 13790 14325 15130Jun-12 12124 12653 13074 13495 14024 14553 14974Jul-12 12332 12528 12727 12925 13122 13318 13517
NCDEX
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12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
Open Interest Volume Price
Derivative Analysis (June) Calendar Spread: July- June
According to derivative analysis; prices have dropped while volumes and open interest have increased. It is a good
indication that new money is coming into the market, showing aggressive new selling. However, underline
fundamentals are still positive which might result in recovery in prices.
Technical NCDEX Jeera prices are trading at
13315 levels, Last week prices have
made a high of 14132 and low of
13182 levels. From the last three
week prices have traded at higher
levels, but last week we have seen
prices have not able to sustain at
higher levels and traded lower and it
might be ended at lower levels. The
principles of Fibonacci states that
this week prices have taken the
resistance of 14132 which was
38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels
in the range of 17992-11732 levels.
If breaks this resistance levels prices
may touch 14860 levels which is
50.00% Fibonacci retracement
levels. These week prices may take
support for 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support and might be recovering from these levels. Prices also may take
support of 8 days EMAs and will turn into bullish direction for the coming week, if breaches these levels prices may fall
further and take support of 12510 which was previous week low. Over all trend for Jeera prices may bullish for the
coming week, but we may expect prices may correct in initial days and it will recovered from the lower levels. While
applying momentum indicator RSI_14 days on a weekly chart currently its treading at 46.36 levels near by centre line
which might be supportive for the coming week. For the coming week we may expect prices may trade in both side.
Short term traders may go long at lower levels.
200
250
300
350
400
Contango
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Turmeric
Technical Recommendations Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation
Turmeric NCDEX June-12 Buy at 3940-70 TP 4190/4380 SL below 3780
Review
Turmeric prices traded extended bullish trend on back of improved stockiest buying during week ended on May 12th.
Futures prices started the week on higher note extending previous week’s gains. Reports of active buying at lower level
supported prices to push the prices to move up. Prevailing bullish sentiments on reports of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh
and Tamil Nadu govt. intervening to procure Turmeric kept prices on higher note and on back of this news futures
prices also ended on positive note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeMay-12 3600 3726 3472 3622 6.57 73430 0.05 26030 -44.95Jun-12 3702 3868 3588 3764 7.55 43360 89.60 19255 22.57Jul-12 3970 4420 3932 4420 12.93 12250 61.72 6060 44.11
Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected to continue the bullish trend on back of declining supplies across the spot markets. As
expected north Indian buyers have placed good orders which are likely to push turmeric prices on higher side.
However, government’s decision on procurement is still awaited and this decision is expected to set the trend.
Nonetheless, this news is keeping stockiest anxious and a result heavy buying at spot front. However, if arrivals
increase more than 20,000 bags a day then it might weigh on prices later in the week.
Factors to watch out
Spot market of Erode witnessed decline in arrivals to 12,000-15,000 bags during the week
Farmers have reduced supplies at spot markets in lieu of further rise in prices as govt. takes any decisions
Some interstate exporters are also buying in small amounts to fulfill orders from Punjab and other north Indian
states
Reports of Governemnt’s team studying turmeric for MSP is resulting in heavy purchese from stockiest and off take
has inproved to 70-80% against 40-50% on daily basis
NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 5800 tonnes as on May 10, 2011
As per Spices Board data, international price of Turmeric in New York market remained steady at $3.53 per kg
during the week ended May 04, 2012 however, down against $6.28 per kg reported in the same period last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3May-12 3233 3353 3487 3622 3741 3861 3995Jun-12 3332 3460 3612 3764 3892 4020 4172Jul-12 3607 3769 4095 4420 4583 4745 5071
NCDEX
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3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
4000
4100
4200
4300
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Open Interest Volume Price
Derivative Analysis (June) Calendar Spread: July- June
According to derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest all have increased which indicates fresh buying. Rising
participation on buying side with good open interested indicates that traders are confidant towards buying side and
positive trend will continue in coming days.
Technical
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
Contango
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4700
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000
11000
Open Interest Volume Price
Chilli
Technical Recommendations Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation
Chilli NCDEX June -12 Buy above 5010 TP 5280/5440 SL below 4820
Review
Chilli prices witnessed very choppy trend in absence of fresh market cues. From starting of the week Futures prices
traded on down on back of prevailing bearish sentiments. However, later on prices took smart recovery on lower level
buying but prices failed to sustain the gains. Therefore, futures prices ended the week slightly lower note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeJun-12 4878 5090 4784 4984 -2.29 12750 -36.63 11010 0.77Jul-12 5074 5146 4912 4950 -2.79 2710 -32.67 2750 18.03
Outlook
Chilli prices are expected to witness mixed to slightly positive trend in absence of fresh market cues. Spot market of
Guntur will remain close for a month due to rising mercury levels. Therefore, no major changes can be expected during
this period and prices might trade in a narrow range. However, prices are expected to recover from these losses in
short to medium term as after market opening fresh buying will be witness in market supporting the prices to move up.
Factors to watch out
Spot market of Guntur will be closed from May 7th, 2012 for one month due to peak summer month
According to traders, now farmers will directly deposit their produce to cod storages
NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 8810 tonnes as on May 10, 2011
As per Spices Board data, international price of chilli in New York market remained unchanged to $3.20 per kg
during the week ended May 04, 2011 down against $3.64 per kg quoted in the same period last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Jun-12 4427 4609 4717 4826 5007 5189 5297Jul-12 4713 4827 4957 5086 5201 5315 5445
NCDEX
Derivative Analysis (June) Calendar Spread: July- June
60
80
100
120
140
Contango
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According to derivative analysis, prices and volumes have declined while open interest has increased. It is a good indication
that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for Downtrend.
Technical
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Cardamom
Technical Recommendations
Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation
Cardamom MCX June-12 Trading Range : 1180-1456
Review
Cardamom prices continued the bullish trend for 2nd consecutive week. From starting of the week prices started trading
on positive note on back improving spot auction prices along with reports of crop damage. Limited arrivals amid end of
arrivals season also cushion the prices and futures prices closed the week on higher note.
Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeMay-12 1094 1214 1071.2 1173.9 10.49 43370 -8.40 11111 -19.67Jun-12 1090 1242 1058.1 1181.4 7.08 14584 121.37 2456 67.63Jul-12 1276 1299.1 1151.7 1151.9 4.77 2039 59.05 644 28.07
Outlook
Cardamom futures are expected to continue the positive trend in coming week. According to trade sources, now supply
and demand has become balanced which is keeping prices stable at spot auction. Rising demand from local buyers and
exporters ahead of Ramadan month is likely to support the prices. Reports of crop damage due to poor water problem
occurred in recent past might also support the positive trend. IMD has released monsoon update of monsoon onset in
southern India which might result in small corrections in prices during the week.
Factors to watch out
Arrivals Daily auction declined to 20-60 tonnes while average prices moved up to Rs.711-850 per Kg.
Total Arrival during the week improved by 2% by to 1,95,772 Kgs. as compared to last week
Crop failure in Guatemala has also shifted export demand towards Indian which might further add to the upside
Total arrivals during this season, from August 1 were 16,041 tonnes and sales 15,535 tonnes, against 8,732 tonnes
of arrivals and 8,511 tonnes of sales in the same period last year
As pr data released by spices Board, cardamom exports from Apr-11 to Jan-12 were reported at 3,900 tones up by
391% Y/Y
MCX warehouse stocks of Cardamom as on May 11, 2011 were 25.5 tonnes
As per Spices Board data, international price of Cardamom in Saudi Arabia market improved to $23.54 per kg
during the week ended May 04, 2011; against $25.31 per kg quoted in the same period last year
Pivot Point
Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3May-12 949 1010 1092 1174 1235 1296 1378Jun-12 895 977 1079 1181 1263 1344 1447Jul-12 955 1054 1103 1152 1250 1348 1398
NCDEX
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1050
1150
1250
1350
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Open Interest Volume Price
Derivative Analysis (June) Calendar Spread: July- June
According to derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest all have increased which indicates fresh buying. Rising
participation on buying side with good open interested indicates that traders are confidant towards buying side and
positive trend will continue in coming days.
Technical
20
40
60
80
Contango
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