SSPPPIICCEEESSS KWWEEEEEKKLLLYYY · 2012-05-12 · Jeera prices witnessed decent corrections on profit booking at higher levels thduring the week ended on May 12 . From starting of

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A

Pepper

Technical Recommendations Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation

Pepper NCDEX June-12 Trading Range : 36100-39860

Review Pepper prices continued the down trend for 3rd consecutive week on back of prevailing bearish sentiments across the

domestic as well as international markets. From starting of the week futures prices traded on negative note on

continued corrections. Exchange interventions in form of higher margins on long side along with that introduction of

staggered delivery mechanisms washed away small and medium traders from the market. However, later n prices took

smart recovery on short covering at lower levels but prices failed to sustain the gains. Prevailing bearish sentiments

across the major growing countries also reflected in Indian market. Therefore, on cues from spot activity futures

remained down and ended the week on negative note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeMay-12 37400 38100 35940 36185 -3.39 8834 -35.38 2043 -42.98Jun-12 37900 38975 37030 38115 -1.04 3553 93.50 1811 101.93Jul-12 38300 39450 37600 38740 -0.92 128 0.78 132 18.94

Outlook

Pepper May prices are expected to trade on weaker note on back of prevailing mixed sentiments. Prevailing bearish

sentiments in global pepper market amid higher supplies from Vietnam is likely to keep prices under pressure.

According to trade sources, despite of tight supply situation prices are remaining down due to subdued domestic

demand. However, any sudden changes in global pepper market fundamentals are likely to cushion prices at lower

levels.

Factors to watch out

Average daily prices at spot market of Kochi declined to `36,200 and `37,700 per quintal, against `36,800 and

`38,300 per quintal reported during previous week for Ungarbled and MG-1 grade respectively

Indian parity in the international market was at $7,150 per MT (c&f) for Europe and $7,450 per MT (c&f) for the

USA and remained competitive and fell in line with others

Stock positions at the NCDEX accredited warehouses were at 1610 tonnes as on May 10, 2011

As per Spices Board data, international price of pepper in New York market remained steady at $7.61 per kg during

the week ended May 04, 2012 but quoted higher against $6.84 per kg quoted in the same period last year

Pivot Point

Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3May-12 33223 34582 35383 36185 37543 38902 39703Jun-12 35160 36095 37105 38115 39050 39985 40995Jul-12 35893 36747 37743 38740 39593 40447 41443

NCDEX

A w e e k l y f u n d a m e n t a l a n d t e c h n i c a l r e p o r t o n s p i c e s 12 May 2012

SSSPPPIIICCCEEESSS WWWEEEEEEKKKLLLYYY

________________________________________________________________________________ KCTL research reports are also available on Bloomberg, Reuters Knowledge & Thomson First Call

A w e e k l y f u n d a m e n t a l a n d t e c h n i c a l r e p o r t o n s p i c e s


36800

37600

38400

39200

40000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

Open Interest Volume Price

Derivative Analysis (June) Calendar Spread: July- June

According to derivative analysis, prices have declined while volumes and open interest have improved. This indicates that

new money is coming into the market, showing aggressive new short selling. This scenario will prove out a continuation of

a downtrend.

Technical

200

400

600

800

1000

Contango




Jeera

Technical Recommendations

Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation

Jeera NCDEX June-12 Buy at 13000-13050 TP 13630/14140 SL below 12700

Review Jeera prices witnessed decent corrections on profit booking at higher levels during the week ended on May 12th. From

starting of week futures prices traded on positive note on back of rising demand at spot front. Good export demand

from Bangladesh and UAE resulted in bulk buying activity at spot market Unjha. However, later on prices turned

negative due to sudden rise in arrivals. Investors also booked their profits at higher levels which resulted in drastic fall

in prices. Therefore, on cues from prevailing fundamentals futures prices also trade on lower note and ended the week

on negative note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeMay-12 12230 13520 12180 13255 -1.55 53094 -28.57 8649 -41.69Jun-12 13600 14132.5 13182.5 13495 -0.90 57003 32.24 18024 10.52Jul-12 12902.5 13120 12725 12925 -6.54 2493 -65.86 3003 -62.45

Outlook

Jeera prices are projected to recover from earlier losses on fresh buying at lower levels in coming week. Strong demand

from exporters is expected to support prices. However, if arrivals increase further at spot front amid rising prices then

we can see some correction in prices during the week. Nevertheless, overall trend is expected to remain positive intact

due to prevailing poor sowing progress in Syria and Turkey. Decline in production in these 2 countries are likely to shift

export demand towards India and might support prices to remain on positive side.


Arrivals at spot market of Unjha increased to 25000-26000 bags against 15000-20000 bags reported during

previous week (1 bag= 60 Kg)

In the global market, Turkey’s cumin seed quoted at USD 3,200 per ton (fob), while, Indian cumin seed quoted at

USD 2,600 per ton (c&f) Singapore and 2,750 per ton (c&f) New York.

Cumin seed sowing in Syria has been reported less around 30%. On the regular disturbance in Syria there is lack of

laborers and on the unfavorable weather conditions cumin seed production is expected not more than 50 %

NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 10,842 tonnes as on May 10, 2011

As per Spices Board data, international price of jeera in New York market remained steady to $3.75 per kg during

the week ended May 04, 2012 however, was down against $3.79 per kg reported in the same period last year

Pivot Point


NCDEX




12000

12500

13000

13500

14000

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000



According to derivative analysis; prices have dropped while volumes and open interest have increased. It is a good

indication that new money is coming into the market, showing aggressive new selling. However, underline

fundamentals are still positive which might result in recovery in prices.

Technical NCDEX Jeera prices are trading at

13315 levels, Last week prices have

made a high of 14132 and low of

13182 levels. From the last three

week prices have traded at higher

levels, but last week we have seen

prices have not able to sustain at

higher levels and traded lower and it

might be ended at lower levels. The

principles of Fibonacci states that

this week prices have taken the

resistance of 14132 which was

38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels

in the range of 17992-11732 levels.

If breaks this resistance levels prices

may touch 14860 levels which is

50.00% Fibonacci retracement

levels. These week prices may take

support for 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support and might be recovering from these levels. Prices also may take

support of 8 days EMAs and will turn into bullish direction for the coming week, if breaches these levels prices may fall

further and take support of 12510 which was previous week low. Over all trend for Jeera prices may bullish for the

coming week, but we may expect prices may correct in initial days and it will recovered from the lower levels. While

applying momentum indicator RSI_14 days on a weekly chart currently its treading at 46.36 levels near by centre line

which might be supportive for the coming week. For the coming week we may expect prices may trade in both side.

Short term traders may go long at lower levels.

200

250

300

350

400

Contango




Turmeric


Turmeric NCDEX June-12 Buy at 3940-70 TP 4190/4380 SL below 3780

Review

Turmeric prices traded extended bullish trend on back of improved stockiest buying during week ended on May 12th.

Futures prices started the week on higher note extending previous week’s gains. Reports of active buying at lower level

supported prices to push the prices to move up. Prevailing bullish sentiments on reports of Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh

and Tamil Nadu govt. intervening to procure Turmeric kept prices on higher note and on back of this news futures

prices also ended on positive note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeMay-12 3600 3726 3472 3622 6.57 73430 0.05 26030 -44.95Jun-12 3702 3868 3588 3764 7.55 43360 89.60 19255 22.57Jul-12 3970 4420 3932 4420 12.93 12250 61.72 6060 44.11

Outlook

Turmeric prices are expected to continue the bullish trend on back of declining supplies across the spot markets. As

expected north Indian buyers have placed good orders which are likely to push turmeric prices on higher side.

However, government’s decision on procurement is still awaited and this decision is expected to set the trend.

Nonetheless, this news is keeping stockiest anxious and a result heavy buying at spot front. However, if arrivals

increase more than 20,000 bags a day then it might weigh on prices later in the week.


Spot market of Erode witnessed decline in arrivals to 12,000-15,000 bags during the week

Farmers have reduced supplies at spot markets in lieu of further rise in prices as govt. takes any decisions

Some interstate exporters are also buying in small amounts to fulfill orders from Punjab and other north Indian

states

Reports of Governemnt’s team studying turmeric for MSP is resulting in heavy purchese from stockiest and off take

has inproved to 70-80% against 40-50% on daily basis

NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 5800 tonnes as on May 10, 2011

As per Spices Board data, international price of Turmeric in New York market remained steady at $3.53 per kg

during the week ended May 04, 2012 however, down against $6.28 per kg reported in the same period last year

Pivot Point


NCDEX




3500

3600

3700

3800

3900

4000

4100

4200

4300

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000



According to derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest all have increased which indicates fresh buying. Rising

participation on buying side with good open interested indicates that traders are confidant towards buying side and

positive trend will continue in coming days.

Technical

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Contango




4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

1000

3000

5000

7000

9000

11000


Chilli


Chilli NCDEX June -12 Buy above 5010 TP 5280/5440 SL below 4820

Review

Chilli prices witnessed very choppy trend in absence of fresh market cues. From starting of the week Futures prices

traded on down on back of prevailing bearish sentiments. However, later on prices took smart recovery on lower level

buying but prices failed to sustain the gains. Therefore, futures prices ended the week slightly lower note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeJun-12 4878 5090 4784 4984 -2.29 12750 -36.63 11010 0.77Jul-12 5074 5146 4912 4950 -2.79 2710 -32.67 2750 18.03

Outlook

Chilli prices are expected to witness mixed to slightly positive trend in absence of fresh market cues. Spot market of

Guntur will remain close for a month due to rising mercury levels. Therefore, no major changes can be expected during

this period and prices might trade in a narrow range. However, prices are expected to recover from these losses in

short to medium term as after market opening fresh buying will be witness in market supporting the prices to move up.


Spot market of Guntur will be closed from May 7th, 2012 for one month due to peak summer month

According to traders, now farmers will directly deposit their produce to cod storages

NCDEX accredited warehouse stocks were at 8810 tonnes as on May 10, 2011

As per Spices Board data, international price of chilli in New York market remained unchanged to $3.20 per kg

during the week ended May 04, 2011 down against $3.64 per kg quoted in the same period last year

Pivot Point

Exchange Contract S3 S2 S1 Previous close R1 R2 R3Jun-12 4427 4609 4717 4826 5007 5189 5297Jul-12 4713 4827 4957 5086 5201 5315 5445

NCDEX


60

80

100

120

140

Contango




According to derivative analysis, prices and volumes have declined while open interest has increased. It is a good indication

that a sharp rally against downtrend will develop creating a sell point for Downtrend.

Technical




Cardamom

Technical Recommendations

Commodity Exchange Contract Recommendation

Cardamom MCX June-12 Trading Range : 1180-1456

Review

Cardamom prices continued the bullish trend for 2nd consecutive week. From starting of the week prices started trading

on positive note on back improving spot auction prices along with reports of crop damage. Limited arrivals amid end of

arrivals season also cushion the prices and futures prices closed the week on higher note.

Contract Open High Low Close % Change Volume % Change Open Interest % ChangeMay-12 1094 1214 1071.2 1173.9 10.49 43370 -8.40 11111 -19.67Jun-12 1090 1242 1058.1 1181.4 7.08 14584 121.37 2456 67.63Jul-12 1276 1299.1 1151.7 1151.9 4.77 2039 59.05 644 28.07

Outlook

Cardamom futures are expected to continue the positive trend in coming week. According to trade sources, now supply

and demand has become balanced which is keeping prices stable at spot auction. Rising demand from local buyers and

exporters ahead of Ramadan month is likely to support the prices. Reports of crop damage due to poor water problem

occurred in recent past might also support the positive trend. IMD has released monsoon update of monsoon onset in

southern India which might result in small corrections in prices during the week.


Arrivals Daily auction declined to 20-60 tonnes while average prices moved up to Rs.711-850 per Kg.

Total Arrival during the week improved by 2% by to 1,95,772 Kgs. as compared to last week

Crop failure in Guatemala has also shifted export demand towards Indian which might further add to the upside

Total arrivals during this season, from August 1 were 16,041 tonnes and sales 15,535 tonnes, against 8,732 tonnes

of arrivals and 8,511 tonnes of sales in the same period last year

As pr data released by spices Board, cardamom exports from Apr-11 to Jan-12 were reported at 3,900 tones up by

391% Y/Y

MCX warehouse stocks of Cardamom as on May 11, 2011 were 25.5 tonnes

As per Spices Board data, international price of Cardamom in Saudi Arabia market improved to $23.54 per kg

during the week ended May 04, 2011; against $25.31 per kg quoted in the same period last year

Pivot Point


NCDEX




1050

1150

1250

1350

0

1000

2000

3000

4000



According to derivative analysis, prices, volumes and open interest all have increased which indicates fresh buying. Rising

participation on buying side with good open interested indicates that traders are confidant towards buying side and

positive trend will continue in coming days.

Technical

20

40

60

80

Contango




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Documents

SSPPPIICCEEESSS KWWEEEEEKKLLLYYY · 2012-05-12 · Jeera prices witnessed decent corrections on profit booking at higher levels thduring the week ended on May 12 . From starting of