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6/1/2015 SOCIETY,CYBERSPACEANDTHEFUTURE
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SOCIETY,CYBERSPACEANDTHEFUTURE
HowCanNewInteractiveCommunicationTechnologyEnhanceHarmoniousandFunctionalCommunitiesatallScalesWorldwide?
ReportofanExploratoryAspenWorkshopPreparedby:
BruceMurrayCaliforniaInstituteofTechnology
bcm@mars1.gps.caltech.edu
February,1995
Abstract
Rapidgrowthinpopulationandconsumptionwillplaceunprecedentedstressesonnaturalresources,ontheglobalenvironment,andoncurrenteconomicandpoliticalsystemsthroughthenextcentury.Stable,harmoniouscommunitieswillbeessentialfordispersedleadershipatallscalesastraditionalcommandtypepoliticalandofeconomicstructuresdiminishinsignificance.Newinteractivecommunicationstechnologycanandmustplayanessentialroleinconnectingindividualswithindiverse,dispersedcommunities.However,aswithpreviousnewtechnologicaldevelopmentsincommunications,negativeeffectsonthestabilityandfunctionalityofcommunitiesarealsolatent.Inthisreport,wevisualizebothpotentiallypositiveandnegativeeffectsoncommunitiesandidentifyspecificneartermactionsandpolicieswhichcanenhancebroad,informedparticipationincontentrichnetworksinthefuture.
FEEDBACKFORMATENDOFREPORT
1. INTRODUCTION
TheforbiddingchallengeofthenextCenturyloomsoverthePresent.Rapidgrowthinpopulationandconsumptionwillplaceunprecedentedstressesonnaturalresources,ontheglobalenvironment,andoncurrenteconomicandpoliticalsystems.Theoutcomeofthisfatefulconfrontationbetweenhumankind'sinexorablegrowthandtheplanet'sfinitecarryingcapacitywillultimatelydependonthebehaviorofbillionsofdiverseindividuals,whodevelopinandidentifywithanenormousrangeofcommunities.
Communicationstechnologyhasprogressivelyextendedindividualawarenessbeyondthechild'sfacetofacecommunitysinceatleastGutenburg.Books,newspapers,transistorradios,cassetteplayers,andvideohaveeachcontributedtomajorhistoricalchange.Somenewcommunicationtechnologieslikemagazinesinthelate19thandfirsthalfofthe20thCenturyhaveproventobeanintegratingforcesocially.Some,likebroadcastvideo,haveunderminedtraditionalcommunitiesmorethantheyhavehelpeddevelop
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newfunctionalcommunitiesbasedonsharedvaluesandmutualobligations.
Newinteractiveelectroniccommunicationsduringtheearlydecadesofthe21stCenturywillstronglyimpactindividualsandgroups,perhapsasprofoundlyasbroadcastradioandvideoshapedthe20thCentury.Inexpensiveaccesstoeasytouse,twoway,contentrichnetworksarelikelytoattractenormousparticipation,atleastinthedevelopedregionsoftheworld.Thus,itisimportantforthosetryingtofashionpoliciesandactionsleadingtosustainableandenlightenedconditionsthroughthenextcenturytoenvisionhowthetransitionfromonewayelectronicmasscommunicationstointeractiveandnetworkedcommunicationsmayimpactcommunitiesofallkindsandthusmodifythebasisofbehaviorandgovernanceinthecenturyahead.
ThatwastheobjectiveofasmallexploratoryworkshopsponsoredbytheMarkleFoundationofNewYorkCityandhostedbyTheAspenInstituteCommunicationandSocietyProgramatAspen,August2729,1994.TheparticipantsarelistedinAppendixA.Herewepresentabriefsummaryofthegeneralviewsthatemerged.
2. COMMUNITYANDCOMMUNICATION
2.1TheNatureofCommunity.
JohnGardnerhassingledouttheunifyingnotionof"community"asthekeytoviewingsocialandindividualbehaviorgenerally*.Atthemostbasiclevel,membersofanycommunityarefundamentallyboundbysharedvaluesandasenseofmutualresponsibility.Facetofacecommunities(thefamily,extendedfamily,school,neighborhood)arewhereindividualsfirstlearnthesesharedvaluesandmutualobligations.Asindividualsmaturetheyidentifytovaryingextentswithlarger,dispersedcommunitiesprofessionalandeconomic,recreationalandsports,ethnicandreligious,politicalandgeographic,socialand"moral".However,forcommunitiestobeharmoniousexternallyaswellasinternallytheymustprovidenotonlyasenseofbelongingandwholenessfortheirmembers,butincorporateandtoleratediversityaswell.Thisintrinsictensionbetweenbondinginternallyandasenseofseparatenessevenhostilityexternallyisauniversalattributeofcommunity!
2.2WorldwideObsolescenceofHierarchical,CommandInstitutionshascharacterizedthesecondhalfofthe20thCentury.TheabruptcollapseoftheSovietUnionwasthemostdramaticexampleofthediminishingpowerofcentralgovernmentsworldwidebut,similarpatternsareprevalentintheUS,WesternEurope,China,Africa,CentralAmerica,Japan.Theprevailingglobaltrendnowisstronglytowarddispersionofauthorityandresponsibilitydownwardandoutwardwiththeneedforincreasedtwowaycommunication,asmanifestedbyprivatizationoftraditionalgovernmentfunctions,downsizingoflargecorporations,andgrowthofsmallenterprisesworldwide.
2.3Dispersed,SelforganizingLeadershiponanUnprecedentedScaleisrequiredinthisemergingpostColdWarworld.Thereisthenecessitytogobeyondjustinteractingtoenhancingpositive
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relationshipsandproblemsolving.Communitiesmustoffermembersbondingbeyondsharedmaterialisticneeds(theymustincorporatesubjectivevalues.Thereisauniquelymodernneedtoreinventcommunitywitheachgeneration_theconsequenceoftheunprecedentedrateofsocialandeconomicchangedrivenbyacceleratingtechnologicalchange.
2.4ConflictResolutionLeadersneedtoreceivefeedbackfromcommunitymembers.Hence,theimportanceofinteractivecommunications.Interactivelinksareneededtobindcommunitieslargeandsmall,nearbyandremote,familiarandstrange.Therearesuccessfulexamplesofconflictresolutionthroughinteractivefacetofacecommunication,especiallyatthecitylevel,butalsoinmoredispersedcommunities.Thepotentialofinteractivenetworkstoresolveortoexacerbateconflictneedstobebetterpublicizedandunderstood.
2.5NewInteractiveCommunicationTechnology(NICTfortherestofthisreport)canhelpcommunitiestofunctionbetterbyfacilitatingdispersedleadershipinthepostCommandEra.Butitalsocanerodeacommunity'sholdonmemberswhowillbecomemorecapableofinteractingremotelywithother,competitivecommunities.Likenearlyallnewtechnologiesitoffershopeandproblemssimultaneously.Ourgoalhereistohelpidentifythesepotentialbenefitsandliabilities,andtodelineateneartermactionsandpoliciesthatwilltendtoshiftthebalancetowardbenefits.First,however,wemustconsidertheemergingnatureofNICT.
3. ENABLINGTECHNOLOGICALTRENDS
Thenewinteractivetechnologyburstinguponthesceneinindustrializedcountriesistheresultoftheconfluenceofdiversetechnicaldevelopments.HerewesummarizethemostimportanttrendswhichwebelieveforeshadowaverybroadanddeeppenetrationofNICT.
3.1Accesstoanduseofnetsforinformationandserviceswillbefueledbyenormousincreasesineaseofuseandaffordability:
Continuedcostreductionincomputingandcommunicationcapabilitiesisuniversallyexpectedbyproducersandusersalike.Localtoglobalaccesstonetsisalreadydrawingmajorcorporateinvestment,includingtheprospectofuniversalwirelessconnectivitythroughverylargenumbersoflowcost,lowaltitudesatelliterelaylinksaccessibleevenbyhandhelddevices.Easierusebyagrowingnumberofdiverseindividualuserswillbeenhancedasnetworksincorporateautomaticlanguagetranslation,andasspeechsynthesisandrecognitionsimplifytheuserinterface.Anincreasinglevelofindividualcapabilityworldwideduetogrowingeducationandexperiencewillcontinuallyexpandthepotentialuserbase.TherecentavailabilityofcolorgraphicsonInternetwithMosaicandNetscape,andtheprospectofvideo,highlighthowrapidlyuserinterfacesfornetworksareevolvingtofullyengageusers.Ultimately,virtualrealitycanbeexpectedtobecommonlyincludedinuserinterfacewithnetworks.
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TheprospectivemergingofinteractiveTV,phonepadservices,andvirtualrealitywithcableandtelephonenetworkstoprovideentertainmentandahostofserviceshasbecomethebasisofmajorevolutionoftheentirecommunicationsandmediaindustries.
3.2Selforganizingpropertiesofnetusershasbeenexhibitedmostvividlyintheexplosive,bottomupgrowthofInternet.Althoughoriginallydrivenbyahighlyexpertcoreofprofessionallyinvolvedcomputerusers,thecurrentgrowthreachesfarbeyondsuchoriginsandindicatesthatselforganizingpatternsofunsophisticateduserswillgrowrapidlyasmorecapableandeasiertouseaccessbecomescommonplace.
3.3Themotivationforwidespreaduseofthe"Net"willderivefrom:Individualempowerment,"private"2waycommunication,multipoint,anonymity,multiplepersonalities,virtualpersonalities.Increasingavailabilityofattractiveandaffordableservices,individuallyselectable,notdrivensomuchbyleastcommondenominatortastesasarebroadcastTVandradio.Emergenceofnewbenefitsforbothcustomersandsuppliersofgoodsandservicesalike,suchasrecordgeneratingcapabilityoftransactions,andcooperativerelationshipswithpotentialconsumerstoreceiverelevantcomparativeproductinformationwheninterestedincontrasttopresentinefficientuseofmassmediatoreachatinyfractionofmassaudiencewhoareactuallypotentialcustomers.
4. PRIMARYCONSEQUENCES
4.1NICTenhanceshorizontalrelationshipsandinstitutions,oftenattheexpenseofverticallyorganizedendeavors.Thistendencyreinforcesthebroadertrendtowardorganizationaldownsizingandflatteningwhichisalreadyacceleratingindevelopedlocalesandregions.Italsomighthelpempowervillagesinthefuture,wheremostoftheworld'speoplesstilllive,andperhapshelpstemthedevastatingmassmigrationfromthecountrysidetourbansprawlthatloomsinthecomingdecades.
4.2NICTgenerallywillenhancetheoperationofmarketsandparticipationofindividualsandgroupsingovernance.However,italsofacilitatesinstantaneousassessmentofopinions,whichmayleadarepresentativegoverningsystemtobesodrivenbyshorttermmassopinionsastobecomeincapableofsustainedgovernance.ARepresentativeDemocracy,whichtraditionallyincorporatedtotimeforleadersandcitizensaliketoevolveattitudesandcompromise,maynotsurviveinthefaceofinstantpollingandpublicizingofthoseinstantopinions."WholenessincorporatingDiversity"maybedifficulttosustaininaneraofinstantaneousopiniongenerationandtallying.
4.3Theroleandstructureofsocietal"intermediaries"willevolverapidly.NICTwillenableindividualsandgroupstobypassexistingsourcesof"news"andinformation,aswellasestablishedcontrolsonaccess,e.g.900telephonenumbers,etc.Newintermediarieswillarisetoauthenticate"information"andtofacilitateaccessanduse.Whowillplaythiskeypoliticalandsocialroleinthefuture?
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5. POTENTIALOBSTACLES
Anynewtechnologyusuallythreatensthepreviousinfrastructureinsomeway.Newcapitalinvestmentisusuallyrequiredaswell.SothereareinevitablyinstitutionalandotherobstaclestotheintroductionofNICT.Inaddition,theenormouspotentialimpactofNICTonbeliefsandactionswillinevitablyleadtoattemptstocontrolorsubvertit.SomeofthepossibleobstaclestoNICTweforeseeare:
5.1Consolidationofprovidersofaccessandservices,resultingfromnormalmarketforces,couldleadtopricebarrierstoaccess,monopolisticcontrolofaccess,andeventosupplysidefilteringandmanipulation.Thus,thepossibilitycannotbeentirelyignoredofanInternet"wasteland"arisinganalogouslytohowafewchannelsofblackandwhitebroadcasttelevisiononceseemedtopromiseawidelyavailableandaffordablesourceofinformationbutinsteadevolvedintomanytensofcolorchannelscompletelydominated(andcorrupted)byentertainmentneeds.
5.2WillNetanarchyleadtoNetcontrol?Howcandiverseanddecentralizeduserswhonevermeetfacetofaceincorporatemutualobligationwithsharedgoalsandthusbecomeacontinuingcommunity?Ifthiscannotbemaintainedonavoluntary,communalbasis(continuingthebottomupapproachofInternet)thereinevitablywillbeacallfortopdowncontrol.
5.3Tendencyofpoliticalandreligiousauthoritytoseekcontrolofsuchapowerfulnewmeansofhumandiscourseandinteractionislikely.Forexample,willtherebe:
Attemptstocontrolreceivers?.Thispracticemaybeunworkable,likeFaxmachinesinChina."Moral"prohibitionsfromlisteningand,especially,frominteracting?ThatapproachmaybetriedinFundamentalreligiouscommunities,e.g.ShiiteMoslems.
5.4InformationOverloadandSaturationcouldbecomethemostsignificantbarriertoutilizingthepotentialoftheNetforallbutthemostsophisticatedusers.Willsoftware"agents"and"filters"reallyempowerordinaryindividualsandsmallgroupstonavigatethevastoceanofinformation,trivia,misinformation?
5.5EquityIssues.Lackofsophistication,expertise,andcapitalinthecountryside,aswellaswithintheurbanunderclass,couldleadto:
Technicalinterferenceasamanifestationofangeranddisempowerment.Oppositiontogovernmentfundingonthebasisofunfairnessandunequalaccessandpreparation.
6. NEARTERMDESIRABLEACTIONS
6.1EncouragesocietalactivitiesthatcanaccelerategrowthandbroaduseofNIAC,suchasEncouraginginexpensiveanduserfriendlyconnectivityforschoolssothatskillsaredevelopedearly
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andnaturally.MandatingandfundingNIACingovernmentservicesandoperations.Creatingadditionalprivateincentives,suchasaccelerateddepreciationforinvestmentinNIAC.Mandatingandencouragingseparationofownershipofentitiesinvolvedwithcontentproductionfromthosethatprovideaccess.Enhancingtheeducationofpotentialusersofallagesleadingtoincreasedabilitytoselect,use,andinterpretwhattheycanaccessontheNet.
6.2DevelopMeanstoEnhanceParticipationofCountrysideandUrbanUnderclassExpandpositivecityexperiencewithinteractivecommunicationtocountrysidethroughsubsidizeddemonstrationlinks.Increasetheabilityofcountrysideandurbancenterstocompeteinuseofrefswithcitydwellersthroughsubsidizedaccessandtraining.Makemorecredibletheoftpromisedbenefitsoftelecommutingandtheabilitytoworkfromruralandinnercitylocationsthroughnetworking.Encouragelocalownershipofaccesssystemsandencouragelocalinvolvementinsomecontentproduction.Developincentivestomitigatepossiblenegativereactionbydevelopingpeoplesandregionstoperceived"cyberneticcolonialism",suchasearly,subsidizedinvolvementofpoorerregions.
7. NEXTSTEPS
Thepurposeofthesmall,informalAspenconferencewastoexplorehownewinteractivecommunicationswerelikelytoaffecthumanbehaviorinthecomingcentury.Thisisausefulwaytoengagepartofthelargerproblemofcollectivevisualizationoffuturepossibilitiesandthedevelopingofconsensusforneartermmoderatingactions.Fromthepointofviewoftheparticipants,theAspenconferencewasquitesuccessfulinbetterdefiningthetopicsandtheissues.Indeed,somewellfocussedconferencesstartwithawelldefined"termsofreference".Inourexploratorycase,weweredelightedtoendwithsuchwhichbecamethebasisofthisreport.
Theultimateobjectiveofthiskindofworkistocatalyzevisualizationofthefuture,especiallyconcerningwelldefinedtechnologicalthemeslikeinteractivecommunication.Suchwidespreadvisualizationcanstimulateconstructiveresponsesbytheverycommunitieswealludetoinourreportgovernmental,private,andnonprofitatlocal,national,regional,internationalscales.
Asfarasthedirectionnowfortheeffortreportedhere,itisdesirabletobroadenthedialogueanddiscussionandtoimproveandextendtheanalysis.Secondly,itisimportanttogatherrelevant,factualinformation.Forexample,arethereexamplesofinteractiononelectronicnetworksthathavebeenimportantinconflictresolutionandinbuildingcommunity?Wemustalsoaskiftheyhavehadtheoppositeeffect.Thus,wearecirculatingthisreportforcomment.
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AnimmediateapproachbyMurraywillbetomakethisreportavailableontheWorldWideWebandsolicitdiscussionofandinputstoitthroughInternet,especiallyfactualcurrentandpastexamplesthatmayberelevanttoourprojections.
Theresultingimprovedanalysis,withricherdetails,thencanformthebasisofotherkindsofinteractionsinothermedia.
FEEDBACKFORM
APPENDIXA.PARTICIPANTS
CONFERENCEON"THEIMPACTOFINTERACTIVECOMMUNICATIONSONFUTUREATTITUDESANDBEHAVIORS"
Aspen,Colorado
August2629,1994
Ms.EdithBjornsonProgramOfficerTheJohnandMaryR.MarkleFoundation75RockefellerPlazaSuite1800NewYork,NY100196908
Dr.DavidBrin801CalleSantaCruzEncinitas,CA920249661
Dr.AnnieCohenSolal421HudsonStreetApt.603NewYork,NY10014
Ms.EstherDysonPresidentEDventureHoldings,Inc.104FifthAvenue20thFloorNewYork,NY10011
Mr.CharlesFirestoneDirectorTheAspenInstitute
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CommunicationandSocietyProgram1333NewHampshireSuite1070Washington,DC20036
Dr.JohnGaddisOhioUniversityBrownHouse2UniversityTerraceAthens,OH457012979
Dr.JohnGardnerGraduateSchoolofBusinessRoomL281StanfordUniversityStanford,CA943055015
Dr.AllenHammondWorldResourcesInstitute1709NewYorkAvenue,NWSuite700Washington,DC20006
Dr.LloydMorrisettPresidentTheJohnandMaryR.MarkleFoundation75RockefellerPlazaSuite1800NewYork,NY100196908
Dr.BruceMurrayCaliforniaInstituteofTechnologyDivisionofGeologicalandPlanetarySciences17025Pasadena,CA91125
ProfessorMonroePriceCardozoSchoolofLaw555thAvenueRoom527NewYork,NY10003
*See"BuildingCommunity",publishedbyIndependentSector,Washington,DC,1991,and"OnLeadership",TheFreePress,NewYork,1990(Chapter11).2/24/94
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