Social Gaming Crystal Ball: 2012

Social Gaming Crystal Ball: 2012

Dave RohrlCreative Director, Playdom

Casual Connect EuropeFebruary 9, 2012

What Is the Crystal Ball?

Goal

• Predict important FB gaming trends• Understand reasons• Forecast impacts

Methodology

• But seriously– Year in Social Games reflection• Deflecting trends lines

– General industry trend lines• Inside/Outside social

– Interesting financial events and key quotes

Caveat Auditor

• Hugely speculative• Hard to predict• Consider the source

Prediction #1

Social GoesCasual

(Not Easy Money)

Trend Line

• 2008-2009: Text RPG

Trend Line

• 2008-2009: HTML RPG• 2009-2010: Simple Decorators

Trend Line

• 2008-2009: HTML RPG• 2009-2010: Simple Decorators• 2010-2011: Builder

Trend Line• 2008-2009: HTML RPG• 2009-2010: Simple Decorator• 2010-2011: Builder• 2011-2012: Genre diversification

Dominant Mammal?

• Casual!

2010 Casual Hits

2011 Casual Hits

Why Does This Work?

• Demographics/Psychographics• Large pool of experienced devs• Well-understood core game

Why Now?

• Development experience• Code has been cracked• Market is very, very proven

2011 Casual Hits

Missing From the Picture?

But……

• Expect lots of failure– Merging is hard– Execution is key– Lots of people trying

So?

• Classic casual gameplay as entry point• Stock up on high skill– Both sides of the coin

• Winners win big• Execution wins

Prediction #2

HTML5 Makes A Dent(But Doesn’t Become

Dominant)

What is HTML5?

• Web development standard• Open• Cross-platform• 2D gaming support via canvas• 3D gaming support via WebGL (still in infancy)

Trend Line

• Early yet

Late 2010 Late 2011

Why Now?

• April 2010: “new open standards, created in the web era, such as HTML 5, will win (over Flash)

• September 2010: Zynga buys Dextrose AG• January 2011: Facebook publishes HTML5

browser performance stats, suggests future prefs

• March 2011: Disney acquires RocketPack• November 2011: Adobe abandons Flash for

mobile, focuses on HTML5

Why Does It Matter?

• Web/mobile apps• Web = big $$$ today• Mobile = web of the future– Internet in your pocket

Is Web/Mobile Cross-Platform Always a Good Idea?

• Mostly, kinda, sorta• UI refactor• Different play patterns• Different purchase drivers• Different release cycles• BUT partial is better than nothing

Why Not Dominant?

• Lots of skilled Flash teams• Lots of games in the pipeline• Variable browser performance

So?

• If you’re not gearing up now, you should• You NEED a mobile strategy– Free-ish (with HTML5)

• Watch out for browser performance variance• This section will look VERY different in the

2013 version.

Prediction #3

IP Becomes Really Important

(But Still Isn’t a Magic Wand)

Why is IP Important?

• Facebook had over 550,000 apps as of January 2010– Probably 2MM+ by now

• iPhone had over 300,000 apps as of January 2011– 600,00 by now

Where Do Little Users Come From?

• Directory Search• Game Channel• Virals• Word of Mouth• Advertising

• Directory Search• Game Channel• Virals

IP and Advertising

• Does IP lower acquisition costs?

• Yes!

Oh, and

Additional Benefits

• Fan Base• Price Points• Content Stream

But…

Remember…

• Trial ≠ Conversion• Conversion isn’t just monetization

Prediction #4

Mobile-> Web Gets Leverage

(But Doesn’t Dominate)

Web->Mobile 2010

Mobile->Web Stories 2010

Pseudo Web->Mobile

Mobile->Web Stories 2011

Mobile->Web Stories 2012??

Why?

• Similarity of play patterns• Related expertise• Enough resources

But….

• Not a freebie– UI– Play duration & other variations

• Interoperation is hard• Competition will accelerate

…And the Rest

• The All-Singing, All-Dancing Photorealistic 3D Game Still Doesn’t Make It

• 2009 Won’t Come Back For Hardcore Strategy Games

• 2012 (post-IPO) Will Be An Interesting Year For the Zynga Quality Bar

Thank You!

• Questions?• Feedback!• drohrl@playdom.com