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Seven Generations of War, Intelligence, & Information Operations: Placing Iraq on the Continuum of the Possible. Evolutionary Eras 1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation 4th Generation 5th Generation 6th Generation 7th Generation. Linch Pin Low Tech Mass New Tech New Doctrine - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Seven Generations of War, Intelligence, & Information
Operations: Placing Iraq on the
Continuum of the Possible
®
Seven Generations of War
Evolutionary Eras
1st Generation
2nd Generation
3rd Generation
4th Generation
5th Generation
6th Generation
7th Generation
Linch Pin
Low Tech Mass
New Tech
New Doctrine
Non-State
RMA (C4I)
RIA (IO/Intel)
RGA
Means of Winning
Attrition
Attrition
Maneuver
Asymmetry
Precision Weapons
Precision Intel(!!)
Everything, Always
®
DefinitionsIntelligence• JCS: product• JCS: knowledge• CIA: knowledge and
foreknowledge as prelude to decision and action (covert action silent)
• OSS: global coverage, all sources, all languages, 24/7, NRT analysis at all times
Information Operations1. Electronic Warfare (EW)
2. Operations Security (OPSEC)
3. Psychological Operations (PSYOPS)
4. Military Deception
5. Computer Network Ops (CNO).
6. Supporting InfoAssurance– Counter Intelligence
– Physical Security
– Physical Attack
7. Intelligence
8. Public Affairs/Civil Affairs
9. Public Diplomacy & Assistance
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Seven Generations of Intelligence/IO
Evolutionary Eras
1st Generation
2nd Generation
3rd Generation
4th Generation
5th Generation
6th Generation
7th Generation
What Do We Need to Know
Easy: Where is the army?
Easy: Where are the trenches?
Moderate: How many with what?
Hard: Watch every non-state actor.
Hard: Watch everything on the fly.
Hard: Make sense of billions of bits.
Very Hard: 24/7, 29+ languages and get your own house in order.
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US/Allied Intelligence in Iraq
Successes
• Good last minute exiles sent in with money and forged documents to recruit and observe
Failures• No deep clandestine assets• No new nor firm knowledge on WMD• Intel vacuum allowed WH adventurism• Did not locate Saddaam• Could not keep up with battle forces• Unable to do guerilla/urban intelligence• No peace/reconstruction intelligence• (Note: the US corruption is *amazing*)
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US/Allied InfoOps in Iraq
Successes• Saved the
Oil Fields• Inspired
desertions & no fires
• Kept most civilians out of fight
Failures• Sunglasses & armor--aid as PSYOP• Girls forced to urinate publicly (rdblks)• Saddam as Elvis (cowboy IO)• Poor impact on Arabs (bye to Al J.)• Poor impact on Europe (bye to Old E.)• Ignored non-Arab Muslims world-wide
(Central Asia, South Asia, India, Pakistan, Muslim Africa)
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Net Assessment of Iraq Intel/IOF Reconstruction intel
F Post-war Guerilla intel
F Global IO Images
F Covert Ops Options
D WMD actual status
C Battle damage
B Kick-off OOB
D Congressional debate
Bottom line: Intel/IO had no coherent strategy, conflicting or absent capabilities and messages, earns a 3 out of a possible 7 on the continuum.
Note: Policy decisions can be said to have handicapped intelligence.
®What Next: A Conflict of Visions
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Center of Gravity is US Public MindHomeland Security Needs $75B per year incl. Ed., PubHlth.
Big War Must Drop to $250B per year (no overall cut in total NS $$)
PeaceWar and Public Intel Must Go to $100B per year*
SOLIC and Gendarme Must Go to $75B per year**
* Includes environmental sustainability and moral capitalism.** Includes 450-ship Navy with littoral/humanitarian assistance fleet.
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War & Peace Restated
COLD WAR PARADIGM ORIGINAL PARADIGM
Secret Elite Decisions
Command Loyal Military
Defending Business Interests
Drafting Obedient People Informed Healthy Public
Demands Moral Capitalism
Rationalizes National Security
Restores Representative Government
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Amazon Rules!• Amazon is global library• My 410+ reviews are
summative and comprise a “Cliff Notes for smart folks”--focus on Intel/NS
• Search for “steele new craft of intelligence”
• Go to and bookmark “see more about me”
• Support reviews with votes
®
Email Costs Nothing
• If I can be helpful to you, email is free, to <bear@oss.net>
• My lectures and many other references are free at www.oss.net.
• Do come to PKI at Carlton in December and OSS ‘04 in April.
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