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Seven Generations of War, Intelligence, & Information

Operations: Placing Iraq on the

Continuum of the Possible

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Seven Generations of War

Evolutionary Eras

1st Generation

2nd Generation

3rd Generation

4th Generation

5th Generation

6th Generation

7th Generation

Linch Pin

Low Tech Mass

New Tech

New Doctrine

Non-State

RMA (C4I)

RIA (IO/Intel)

RGA

Means of Winning

Attrition

Attrition

Maneuver

Asymmetry

Precision Weapons

Precision Intel(!!)

Everything, Always

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DefinitionsIntelligence• JCS: product• JCS: knowledge• CIA: knowledge and

foreknowledge as prelude to decision and action (covert action silent)

• OSS: global coverage, all sources, all languages, 24/7, NRT analysis at all times

Information Operations1. Electronic Warfare (EW)

2. Operations Security (OPSEC)

3. Psychological Operations (PSYOPS)

4. Military Deception

5. Computer Network Ops (CNO).

6. Supporting InfoAssurance– Counter Intelligence

– Physical Security

– Physical Attack

7. Intelligence

8. Public Affairs/Civil Affairs

9. Public Diplomacy & Assistance

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Seven Generations of Intelligence/IO

Evolutionary Eras

1st Generation

2nd Generation

3rd Generation

4th Generation

5th Generation

6th Generation

7th Generation

What Do We Need to Know

Easy: Where is the army?

Easy: Where are the trenches?

Moderate: How many with what?

Hard: Watch every non-state actor.

Hard: Watch everything on the fly.

Hard: Make sense of billions of bits.

Very Hard: 24/7, 29+ languages and get your own house in order.

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US/Allied Intelligence in Iraq

Successes

• Good last minute exiles sent in with money and forged documents to recruit and observe

Failures• No deep clandestine assets• No new nor firm knowledge on WMD• Intel vacuum allowed WH adventurism• Did not locate Saddaam• Could not keep up with battle forces• Unable to do guerilla/urban intelligence• No peace/reconstruction intelligence• (Note: the US corruption is *amazing*)

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US/Allied InfoOps in Iraq

Successes• Saved the

Oil Fields• Inspired

desertions & no fires

• Kept most civilians out of fight

Failures• Sunglasses & armor--aid as PSYOP• Girls forced to urinate publicly (rdblks)• Saddam as Elvis (cowboy IO)• Poor impact on Arabs (bye to Al J.)• Poor impact on Europe (bye to Old E.)• Ignored non-Arab Muslims world-wide

(Central Asia, South Asia, India, Pakistan, Muslim Africa)

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Net Assessment of Iraq Intel/IOF Reconstruction intel

F Post-war Guerilla intel

F Global IO Images

F Covert Ops Options

D WMD actual status

C Battle damage

B Kick-off OOB

D Congressional debate

Bottom line: Intel/IO had no coherent strategy, conflicting or absent capabilities and messages, earns a 3 out of a possible 7 on the continuum.

Note: Policy decisions can be said to have handicapped intelligence.

®What Next: A Conflict of Visions

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Center of Gravity is US Public MindHomeland Security Needs $75B per year incl. Ed., PubHlth.

Big War Must Drop to $250B per year (no overall cut in total NS $$)

PeaceWar and Public Intel Must Go to $100B per year*

SOLIC and Gendarme Must Go to $75B per year**

* Includes environmental sustainability and moral capitalism.** Includes 450-ship Navy with littoral/humanitarian assistance fleet.

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War & Peace Restated

COLD WAR PARADIGM ORIGINAL PARADIGM

Secret Elite Decisions

Command Loyal Military

Defending Business Interests

Drafting Obedient People Informed Healthy Public

Demands Moral Capitalism

Rationalizes National Security

Restores Representative Government

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