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Seminar of Government ExpertsIndian Perspective
Surya P. SethiAdviser (Energy)
Planning Commission, Govt. of India
Roadmap of Presentation
Have Annex I countries met their commitments?
What GHG-forecasting models are good for?
What India is doing to address GHG emissions?
Sustainable lifestyles
Trends in meeting Annex I Commitments
Source: UNFCCC 2003
Trends in aggregate GHG emissions, 1990-2000
Trends of CO2 Equivalent Emissions
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
% c
hang
e w
.r.t
1990
Australia Canada EUJAPAN Netherlands Russian federationUSA
Sharp decrease for Russian Federation
Essentially flat for EU-15
Significant increase for Australia, Canada, Netherlands, Japan, USA
Transfer of finance
GEF allocation during 2nd replenishment period USD 648.31 mn Against a pledge of USD 2750 mn
Co-financing ratio of 4.7:1(in 279 GEF climate change projects). However all co-financing: Not “new and additional” finance Often sourced from host country
Only 7.2% of bilateral ODA commitment of DAC of OECD for climate change between 1998-2000
Transfer of technology (TT)
National communication reporting of technology transfer Very few examples of actual successful “hard”
TT Information networks, capacity building
reported as TT Programmes reported include those for
improving trade relations (e.g. Asia Eco-best, TACIS)
Commercial sales equated with technology transfers
Forecasts Using CGE Models
Different CGE Models run with same scenarios give widely varying results (e.g. Indian share of global emissions)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
%
2000 2050 2100
Different CGE Models Reference Scenario
GTEM
merge-hc
merge-lc
DNE21
IMAGE2.2
MARIA
EPPA
AIM
MiniCam
SGM
0
5
10
15
20
25
%
2000 2050 2100
Different CGE Models 550 ppmv Scenario
GTEM
merge-hc
merge-lc
DNE21
IMAGE2.2
MARIA
EPPA
AIM
MiniCam
SGM
Source: Weyant & Parikh, 2004
Qualitative result: carbon intensity of GDP for India
Source: Weyant & Parikh, 2004
India’s Initiatives
Improving energy efficiency
Promoting hydro and renewable energy
Power sector reforms
Promotion of clean coal technologies
Energy and infrastructure development
Coal washing
Cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel for transport
Environmental quality management
Key Energy Programmes and policies
India’s Energy Policies: Scenarios simulated by MARKAL (2001-2036)
Baseline (BAU Without Energy Initiatives):Base year 2001, GDP growth 8%, IPCC emissions factors, Official demographic projections, 8% discount rate
S5: Baseline with GDP growth 6.7%
Energy Scenarios with baseline assumptions
S1: Cleaner fuels for power generation S2: Electricity for all by 2012, decentralized renewable options
efficient cook stoves S3: 20% increase in share of public road transport
Greater CNG use in buses, taxis, 3-W vehicles S4: S1+S2+S3
Change in India’s CO2 intensity as a result of Government policy initiatives
CO2 Intensity
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Years
MM
T/B
illi
on
US
$
Baseline S1 S2 S3 S4 S5
TERI analysis
CO2 emissions
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
MM
T
BASELINE S1 S2 S3 S4 S5
TERI analysis
Lifestyle Differences
CO2 emission from agricultural sector--from Field (production) to Table (processed food)-excluding cooking
0.1 0.1
1.7 1.8 1.9 2.02.2
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
India China UnitedKingdom
Germany Netherlands Australia United States
ton
CO
2/m
kca
l of
food
ene
rgy
Production related CO2 emission (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Processing related CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Total CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)
Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)
30
47.353
70
0
20
40
60
80
US Germany Japan India
4810
23
0
5
10
15
20
25
USA UK Germany India
Average rate of recycling (%);excludes reuse
GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp)
Municipal solid waste
Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources
16
118
193
0
50
100
150
200
250
India EU (15 countries) USA
Estimated CO2 emissions from passenger transport (gm/passenger-km)
Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources
Conclusions Annex I I commitments not met – emissions still
rising, transfers of finance/technology minimal.
Numerical forecasts of relative or absolute growth in GHG emissions from models vary widely and hence cannot drive policies
However, qualitative insights if replicated by a range of models are useful
Low per-capita GHG emissions in India are due to sustainable lifestyles & not poverty alone
India is doing enough in mitigation of GHGs. Technological and Financial barriers to achieving identified energy initiatives must be removed
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