Seminar of Government ExpertsIndian Perspective

Surya P. SethiAdviser (Energy)

Planning Commission, Govt. of India

Roadmap of Presentation

Have Annex I countries met their commitments?

What GHG-forecasting models are good for?

What India is doing to address GHG emissions?

Sustainable lifestyles

Trends in meeting Annex I Commitments

Source: UNFCCC 2003

Trends in aggregate GHG emissions, 1990-2000

Trends of CO2 Equivalent Emissions

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

% c

hang

e w

.r.t

1990

Australia Canada EUJAPAN Netherlands Russian federationUSA

Sharp decrease for Russian Federation

Essentially flat for EU-15

Significant increase for Australia, Canada, Netherlands, Japan, USA

Transfer of finance

GEF allocation during 2nd replenishment period USD 648.31 mn Against a pledge of USD 2750 mn

Co-financing ratio of 4.7:1(in 279 GEF climate change projects). However all co-financing: Not “new and additional” finance Often sourced from host country

Only 7.2% of bilateral ODA commitment of DAC of OECD for climate change between 1998-2000

Transfer of technology (TT)

National communication reporting of technology transfer Very few examples of actual successful “hard”

TT Information networks, capacity building

reported as TT Programmes reported include those for

improving trade relations (e.g. Asia Eco-best, TACIS)

Commercial sales equated with technology transfers

Forecasts Using CGE Models

Different CGE Models run with same scenarios give widely varying results (e.g. Indian share of global emissions)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

%

2000 2050 2100

Different CGE Models Reference Scenario

GTEM

merge-hc

merge-lc

DNE21

IMAGE2.2

MARIA

EPPA

AIM

MiniCam

SGM

0

5

10

15

20

25

%

2000 2050 2100

Different CGE Models 550 ppmv Scenario

GTEM

merge-hc

merge-lc

DNE21

IMAGE2.2

MARIA

EPPA

AIM

MiniCam

SGM

Source: Weyant & Parikh, 2004

Qualitative result: carbon intensity of GDP for India

Source: Weyant & Parikh, 2004

India’s Initiatives

Improving energy efficiency

Promoting hydro and renewable energy

Power sector reforms

Promotion of clean coal technologies

Energy and infrastructure development

Coal washing

Cleaner and lesser carbon intensive fuel for transport

Environmental quality management

Key Energy Programmes and policies

India’s Energy Policies: Scenarios simulated by MARKAL (2001-2036)

Baseline (BAU Without Energy Initiatives):Base year 2001, GDP growth 8%, IPCC emissions factors, Official demographic projections, 8% discount rate

S5: Baseline with GDP growth 6.7%

Energy Scenarios with baseline assumptions

S1: Cleaner fuels for power generation S2: Electricity for all by 2012, decentralized renewable options

efficient cook stoves S3: 20% increase in share of public road transport

Greater CNG use in buses, taxis, 3-W vehicles S4: S1+S2+S3

Change in India’s CO2 intensity as a result of Government policy initiatives

CO2 Intensity

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Years

MM

T/B

illi

on

US

$

Baseline S1 S2 S3 S4 S5

TERI analysis

CO2 emissions

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Year

MM

T

BASELINE S1 S2 S3 S4 S5

TERI analysis

Lifestyle Differences

CO2 emission from agricultural sector--from Field (production) to Table (processed food)-excluding cooking

0.1 0.1

1.7 1.8 1.9 2.02.2

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

India China UnitedKingdom

Germany Netherlands Australia United States

ton

CO

2/m

kca

l of

food

ene

rgy

Production related CO2 emission (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)

Processing related CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)

Total CO2 emissions (tonne CO2/million kcal of food energy)

Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)

30

47.353

70

0

20

40

60

80

US Germany Japan India

4810

23

0

5

10

15

20

25

USA UK Germany India

Average rate of recycling (%);excludes reuse

GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp)

Municipal solid waste

Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources

16

118

193

0

50

100

150

200

250

India EU (15 countries) USA

Estimated CO2 emissions from passenger transport (gm/passenger-km)

Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources

Conclusions Annex I I commitments not met – emissions still

rising, transfers of finance/technology minimal.

Numerical forecasts of relative or absolute growth in GHG emissions from models vary widely and hence cannot drive policies

However, qualitative insights if replicated by a range of models are useful

Low per-capita GHG emissions in India are due to sustainable lifestyles & not poverty alone

India is doing enough in mitigation of GHGs. Technological and Financial barriers to achieving identified energy initiatives must be removed