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Seasonal Outlook & NWS Resources. Latah LEPC January 14, 2013 Andy Brown. El Ni ño vs La N i ña. ‘Neutral’ Conditions are around average SSTs. Ni ño Indices: Historical Evolution. Ni ño Indices: Recent Evolution. Transition from La Nina to El Nino early last summer. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Seasonal Outlook&
NWS Resources
Latah LEPCJanuary 14, 2013
Andy Brown
‘Neutral’ Conditions are around average SSTs
El Niño vs La Niña
Niño Indices: Historical Evolution
Niño Indices: Recent Evolution
• Transition from La Nina to El Nino early last summer
• Weak El Nino to Neutral conditions persisting the last several months
• Neutral conditions are present across the eastern equatorial Pacific
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) about 0.4 degree above average
• SSTs are showing a moderating or slowing trend right now
Tropical Pacific Status
Consensus ENSO Forecast
Bottom Line…
• Instead, Neutral to very weak El Nino conditions expected
El Nino watch has been…
ENSO & Spokane Snowfall
Seasonal Snowfall
• 35.2” as of February 12• Average approximately another 10” mid February through April• 3 out of the last 4 years measured at least 12” in March and April
Full Season Temperature Outlooks
Feb/Mar/Apr
Mar/Apr/May
Full Season Precipitation Outlooks
Feb/Mar/Apr
Mar/Apr/May
8-14 Day Outlook (Feb 21-27)
Temperature
Precipitation
NWS Resources:Insuring Decision Makers Know
How to Get the Information They Need
NWS Spokane Webpage:
Point and Click Forecast Map
HazardousWeatherOutlook
A more general description of potential weather hazards
(Especially Days 2-7)
Winter Weather Advisory
Detailed HighlightWhatWhenWhereImpacts
Used to convey rapidly evolving hazards
Heavy snow bands Dense fog Thunderstorms
Short Term Forecast (NOW Cast)
weather.gov/spokane
Interactive map highlighting exactly where the hazards/impacts are expected
Resources:Detailed Hazards
Weather Story
Event driven
Highlight the expected impacts
All hazards (severe weather, flooding,
pattern changes, etc)
• All NWS Forecast Offices have Facebook, Twitter, and now Youtube!
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National Weather Service Spokane
@NWSSpokane
NWS Spokane
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“THE NWS HAS ISSUED A __________ WATCH”
Will be converted to…
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