Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more …

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Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more …

COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow

2 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

COSMO is Cool!

• Impressive amount of work is being done!

• Forecast quality is getting better and better (albeit user expectations are possibly rising even quicker …)!

3 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Relative value – Alert level „yellow“

useful+

- useless

… against false alarmsinsensitive … sensitive …

(03h, 06h and 12h accumulations, cut-off +03h)

4 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

COSMO is Cool!

• Impressive amount of work is being done!

• Forecast quality is getting better and better (albeit user expectations are possibly rising even quicker …)!

• However: Potential synergies (communication, coordination, cooperation) are maybe not fully exploited.

Can we make COSMO even cooler?

5 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Science Plan: Aim

• “… summarising the current challenges,

• speculating on future directions in an educated manner

• offering concrete proposals ( Priority Projects) how to meet these given the limited resources.”

Timeframe:

expected developments in the next 5 yrs with an outlook

out to 10 yrs ahead.

6 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Science Plan: Long-term strategy (~2015)

• Stay at the high end of operational NWP model resolution:• very high resolution (1 km)• short to very-short time-scale• deterministic as well as probabilistic (coarser?)

• New: environment modelling

• Also: climate modelling

7 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Science Plan:Implications (I)

• Assimilation:• appropriate scheme for highly non-linear convective-scale

processes• ensemble assimilation system

• Dynamics and numerics:• steep slopes• closer coupling between the dynamical core an the

parameterisations

• Physics• basic assumptions / approximations still valid?• unified schemes (e.g., turbulence / shallow convection)• 3D schemes?

8 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Science Plan:Implications (II)

• Ensembles:• appropriate perturbations for ICs, BCs, and representation

of model errors• predictability

• Interpretation and Applications• interpretation

• Verification• appropriate verification scores, deterministic as well as

probabilistic

9 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Priority Projects (PPs)

• CDC: Conservative dynamical core

• COLOBOC: Consolidation of Lower Boundary Conditions

• CONSENS: CONSolidation of COSMO ENSemble

• KENDA: Km-Scale Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation

• Sat-Cloud: Assimilation of satellite data with clouds and over land

• UTCS: Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme

• VERSUS 2: VERification System Unified Survey

10 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

PP CDC: Conservative dynamical core

• conservation!

• finite volumes, which may also prove to be beneficial for steep slopes

11 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

PP Sat-Cloud: Assimilation of satellite data with clouds and over land

• Extend 1D-Var efforts (cloud-free, over the sea) to cloudy areas and land points

• Should help to improve the humidity initial conditions.

12 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

PP VERSUS 2: VERification System Unified Survey

• Extension of VERSUS

• Implementation and use in all COSMO member states

13 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

PP CONSENS: CONSolidation of COSMO ENSemble

• Merge COSMO-LEPS and COSMO-SREPS to obtain an ensemble system for days 2-5.

• Boundary conditions for COSMO-DE-EPS

14 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

PP COLOBOC: Consolidation of Lower Boundary Conditions

• Merge all (well advanced) activities related to the lower boundary condition and consolidate these developments• external parameters• TERRA (coupled, stand-alone, SCM)• snow• urban module• mosaic/tile

15 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Priority Tasks (PTs)

• PP SPRT (“Support Activities”) has been transformed into PT “Support Activities”

• Consolidation of cumulus parameterisation scheme(s); coordination of efforts within WG 3 as well as task (v) of PP UTCS

• Consolidation of post-processing routines

• Assessment of humidity bias

16 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Planning and reporting cycle

• planning (PPs, PTs):• driven by Science Plan• responsibility: SMC (WG coordinators & PP leaders)• initiation: a month ahead of the COSMO User Seminar• continuously: work packages (WPs) within the WGs

• reporting (PPs, PTs, WPs):• 4 times per year (main (scientific) reporting at General

Meeting and User Seminar, intermediate reporting by end of Nov & May)

17 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Communication:COSMO User Seminar

• early March (e.g., 9-11.3.2009), in Langen (Germany)

• ideal opportunity for workshops for PPs (and WGs)(e.g. on 11/12/13.3.2009)

18 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

More on communication, coordination, and cooperation …

• “What can COSMO do for me?”• Let us (WG coordinators, PP leaders, SPM, STC) know …• We will try our best!

• “What can I do for COSMO?”• Let COSMO (i.e., your WG / WG coordinator, your PP / PP

leader, the SPM, the STC) know (what you do) …• Please try your best!

19 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

More on communication, coordination, and cooperation …

• www.cosmo-model.org

• cosmo-wg?@cosmo-model.org

• cosmo-all@cosmo-model.org

20 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)

Let’s make COSMO even cooler!

Let’s start right here and now: in Cracow!