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Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more …. COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow. C OSMO is C ool!. Impressive amount of work is being done! Forecast quality is getting better and better (albeit user expectations are possibly rising even quicker …)!. Relative value – Alert level „yellow“. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Federal Department of Home Affairs FDHAFederal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss
Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more …
COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, Cracow
2 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
COSMO is Cool!
• Impressive amount of work is being done!
• Forecast quality is getting better and better (albeit user expectations are possibly rising even quicker …)!
3 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Relative value – Alert level „yellow“
useful+
- useless
… against false alarmsinsensitive … sensitive …
(03h, 06h and 12h accumulations, cut-off +03h)
4 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
COSMO is Cool!
• Impressive amount of work is being done!
• Forecast quality is getting better and better (albeit user expectations are possibly rising even quicker …)!
• However: Potential synergies (communication, coordination, cooperation) are maybe not fully exploited.
Can we make COSMO even cooler?
5 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Science Plan: Aim
• “… summarising the current challenges,
• speculating on future directions in an educated manner
• offering concrete proposals ( Priority Projects) how to meet these given the limited resources.”
Timeframe:
expected developments in the next 5 yrs with an outlook
out to 10 yrs ahead.
6 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Science Plan: Long-term strategy (~2015)
• Stay at the high end of operational NWP model resolution:• very high resolution (1 km)• short to very-short time-scale• deterministic as well as probabilistic (coarser?)
• New: environment modelling
• Also: climate modelling
7 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Science Plan:Implications (I)
• Assimilation:• appropriate scheme for highly non-linear convective-scale
processes• ensemble assimilation system
• Dynamics and numerics:• steep slopes• closer coupling between the dynamical core an the
parameterisations
• Physics• basic assumptions / approximations still valid?• unified schemes (e.g., turbulence / shallow convection)• 3D schemes?
8 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Science Plan:Implications (II)
• Ensembles:• appropriate perturbations for ICs, BCs, and representation
of model errors• predictability
• Interpretation and Applications• interpretation
• Verification• appropriate verification scores, deterministic as well as
probabilistic
9 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Priority Projects (PPs)
• CDC: Conservative dynamical core
• COLOBOC: Consolidation of Lower Boundary Conditions
• CONSENS: CONSolidation of COSMO ENSemble
• KENDA: Km-Scale Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation
• Sat-Cloud: Assimilation of satellite data with clouds and over land
• UTCS: Towards Unified Turbulence-Shallow Convection Scheme
• VERSUS 2: VERification System Unified Survey
10 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
PP CDC: Conservative dynamical core
• conservation!
• finite volumes, which may also prove to be beneficial for steep slopes
11 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
PP Sat-Cloud: Assimilation of satellite data with clouds and over land
• Extend 1D-Var efforts (cloud-free, over the sea) to cloudy areas and land points
• Should help to improve the humidity initial conditions.
12 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
PP VERSUS 2: VERification System Unified Survey
• Extension of VERSUS
• Implementation and use in all COSMO member states
13 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
PP CONSENS: CONSolidation of COSMO ENSemble
• Merge COSMO-LEPS and COSMO-SREPS to obtain an ensemble system for days 2-5.
• Boundary conditions for COSMO-DE-EPS
14 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
PP COLOBOC: Consolidation of Lower Boundary Conditions
• Merge all (well advanced) activities related to the lower boundary condition and consolidate these developments• external parameters• TERRA (coupled, stand-alone, SCM)• snow• urban module• mosaic/tile
15 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Priority Tasks (PTs)
• PP SPRT (“Support Activities”) has been transformed into PT “Support Activities”
• Consolidation of cumulus parameterisation scheme(s); coordination of efforts within WG 3 as well as task (v) of PP UTCS
• Consolidation of post-processing routines
• Assessment of humidity bias
16 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Planning and reporting cycle
• planning (PPs, PTs):• driven by Science Plan• responsibility: SMC (WG coordinators & PP leaders)• initiation: a month ahead of the COSMO User Seminar• continuously: work packages (WPs) within the WGs
• reporting (PPs, PTs, WPs):• 4 times per year (main (scientific) reporting at General
Meeting and User Seminar, intermediate reporting by end of Nov & May)
17 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Communication:COSMO User Seminar
• early March (e.g., 9-11.3.2009), in Langen (Germany)
• ideal opportunity for workshops for PPs (and WGs)(e.g. on 11/12/13.3.2009)
18 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
More on communication, coordination, and cooperation …
• “What can COSMO do for me?”• Let us (WG coordinators, PP leaders, SPM, STC) know …• We will try our best!
• “What can I do for COSMO?”• Let COSMO (i.e., your WG / WG coordinator, your PP / PP
leader, the SPM, the STC) know (what you do) …• Please try your best!
19 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
More on communication, coordination, and cooperation …
• www.cosmo-model.org
20 Science Plan, PPs, PTs, and more … | COSMO General Meeting, 18 September 2008, CracowMarco Arpagaus (marco.arpagaus [at] meteoswiss.ch)
Let’s make COSMO even cooler!
Let’s start right here and now: in Cracow!