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School of Earth & EnvironmentSUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Application of a decision theatre concept to the development of an agent-based modelCatherine Bale, Ruth Bush, Katy Roelich, Jonathan Busch and Mark Powell
Policy Modelling in Practice, CRESS Workshop
8th December 2014
2
Outline
1. Context – policy relevant research questions
2. Decision theatre methodology
• 1st Workshop• 2nd Workshop
3. Insights from methodology
4. Discussion
3
District heating
• 38 per cent of all CO2 emissions are from heat-related activities
• We spend around £33 billion annually on heat
• Fuel poverty is a key concern
• Around 80% of our demand for heat is supplied by natural gas
4
Agents in the heat system
• Local authorities have a key role to play, but host of other agents involved.
• What policies could enable local authorities to develop district heating?
DECCEnergy
companies
LAs LEPs
Other public sector
Commercial
Network operators
Households
Commercial
Communities
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Decision theatre
• Originally developed in Arizona State University, and used by Newcastle University to look at flood risk management.
• Prototypes for making decisions in the face of uncertainty.
• Actively engages researchers and leaders to visualise solutions to complex problems.
• Uses data visualisation, modelling and simulation
References:
ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY, Decision theatre network, https://dt.asu.edu/home.
WALSH, C. L., GLENDINNING, S., DAWSON, R. J., ENGLAND, K., MARTIN, M., WATKINS, C. L., WILSON, R., MCLOUGHLIN, A., GLENIS, V. & PARKER, D. 2013. Collaborative platform to facilitate engineering decision-making. Proceedings of the ICE-Engineering Sustainability, 166, 98-107.
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Decision theatre
Workshop 1 – Oct 2014
• ‘Pre-decision’ theatre – to identify actors, decision process for model development.
Workshop 2 – Spring 2015
• Decision theatre – to use the model with stakeholders.
Used to explore the district heating development process
Pre-planning and heat mapping
phase
Feasibility studies and stakeholder negotiations
Business model
development and finance
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Workshop 1 - Aims
For participants:
• Sharing and learning across different perspectives
• Opportunity to reflect on their organisation’s work with district heating
For us:
• Contribute to research and development of ABM
• Analysis of policy and development processes for district heating
Chatham house rules
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Workshop 1 - Participants
Local authority
Hospital energy manager
University energy manager
Community energy group representative
Energy company
Energy from waste plant manager
Local authority
Local authority
Local stakeholders:
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Workshop 1 - Participants
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Workshop 1 - Activities
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Workshop 1 - Feedback
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Workshop 2 - Plans
• New decision theatre suit as part of Newcastle University’s Science Central.
• Participants will use ABM and other decision-support tools to explore policy interventions.
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Insights
• Value to participants as well as researchers – space to step back from day-to-day.
• Early engagement in model development – test framework.
• Participants on board for next workshop:• More faith in the model having been through process?
• Pre-decision theatre as useful (more so?) as final decision theatre?
• Decision theatre concept has clear benefits for policy-relevant social simulation -> incorporating participatory modelling.
14
Discussion
• Use of decision theatre methods in policy-making context?
School of Earth & EnvironmentSUSTAINABILITY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Thank you for your attention!
Contact: c.s.e.bale@leeds.ac.uk
Twitter: @EnergyFrinWebsite: http://sure-infrastructure.leeds.ac.uk
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