SAFEFOODERA Stakeholder Group Meeting with Retailers – Emerging Risks – Ljubljana, 8 - 9...

SAFEFOODERASAFEFOODERA

Stakeholder Group Meeting with Retailers

– – Emerging Risks –Emerging Risks –

Ljubljana, 8 - 9 February 2007

Why Emerging Risk Identification?Why Emerging Risk Identification?

timely recognition of critical situations

increased number of options for action to risk managers

Emerging risk identification

crucial part of any coherent,effective and dynamic food policy

Europe: Article 34Europe: Article 34of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002

... [EFSA] .... shall establish monitoring proceduresfor systematically searching for, collecting, collating and

analysing information and data with a view to theidentification of emerging risks in the fields within its mission.

major preventative instrument

usually neglected: long-term consequences andimpacts of factors outside the food chain

not incorporated adequately: various interacting processes which influence the evolution of a risk

often ignored: human factor (only simplistic or standardised schemes of behaviour)

Limitations of Risk AnalysisLimitations of Risk Analysis

PERIAPT- Workshop (Bonn, July 2004)

International Organisations

Research institutions

Industry

Consumer Organisations

Governmental Bodies

Hazard a biological, chemical or physical agent in,or condition of, food or feed with the potential to cause anadverse health effect

DefinitionsDefinitionsArticle 3 of Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002

Risk a function of the probability of an adverse healtheffect and the severity of that effect, consequential to a hazard

Emerging Risk a potential food or feed borne or diet-related hazard that may become a risk for human health in the (near) future

DefinitionsDefinitionsPeriapt 2004

AWACS (Airborne Early Warning and Control System)

The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard itself!

Early Warning System: AWACSEarly Warning System: AWACS

D A R TDeep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis

Early Warning System:Early Warning System:TsunamiTsunami

The detected indicator (signal) is the hazard itself!

Weather Balloon (Antarctica)

Drought (Africa)

Flooding (Prague)

Observed indicators are not part of the hazard

but (possibly) suitable to detect a

risk proactively

Pro-active Methodology: Climate Forecast Pro-active Methodology: Climate Forecast

Emerging Risks: The Holistic ApproachEmerging Risks: The Holistic Approach

Food SafetyFood Safety

Science and Science and TechnologyTechnology

Culture/ Culture/ DemographyDemography

EconomyEconomy

MediaMedia

Nature Nature EnvironmentEnvironment

Consumer Consumer behaviorbehavior

Regulations/ Regulations/ enforcementenforcement

AgricultureAgricultureIndustryIndustry

Analysing the environment of the food supply chain.

Economy Globalisation

increasing complexity of food production chain – limitations in traceability

Nature & Environment Climate

modified behaviour of microorganisms could lead to new or different biological food risks

. . . .

„„Holistic Vision“Holistic Vision“

Flow diagram holistic approachFlow diagram holistic approach Periapt 2004

Influential sectors Critical factors Indicators

Nature &Environment

ClimateRainfall &

Temperature

Example: Emerging risk of contamination of crop by mycotoxin-producing moulds

Threats: interdisciplinary,complex and global issue

Status in 5 – 15 years:Status in 5 – 15 years:

Will fish from the arctic regions still be safe to eat?Will fish from the arctic regions still be safe to eat?

Key characteristics of anKey characteristics of anEmerging Risk IdentificationEmerging Risk Identification System System

anticipatory approach

process

no replacement of Early Warning Systems

What to do?What to do?

pro-active identification of food related risks

consideration of plurality of involved factors; identification and weighing of key issues

combination of specialised knowledge fromvarious disciplines

consideration of changing factors

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!