View
214
Download
2
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
Role of NSIs in analysingshort-term economic statistics
– the UK ExperienceRobin YoullDirectorShort Term Output Indicators DivisionOffice for National StatisticsUnited Kingdom
Overview
• UK experience
• Current practice
• Constraints on NSI business
• Recent developments
Background - Interpretation of STIs by UK’s ONS
• What is NSI’s role? – v. Finance Dept or Central Banks?
• Use of trend/cycle analysis?– Cause of debate in the UK– Finance Dept opposes ONS use of trends in key macro-economic
series
• But, can usefully:– Paint coherent pictures (cross referencing between sources)– Set STS in a framework (NA, LM accounting, Social Accounting)– Provide international comparisons
UK Experience - Background
• Generally ‘guarded’
• Focus is on objectivity/integrity
• Need for political neutrality
• Great interest from key policy makers – Bank of England, Finance Dept, Trade Dept, etc.
UK Experience - Current practice Many vehicles for presenting economic statistics
• First Releases /News Releases/’Nuggets’
• Web-based briefing packs
• Face-to-face briefings for analysts and journalists for ONS major releases
• Articles and papers in regular journals (‘Economic Trends’, ‘Labour market Trends’)
• Other regular fora where we describe our data
UK Experience Principles • ‘Information’ service
– not ‘news’ service
• Formulaic production – ‘search and replace’ approach to producing the releases
• ‘Silo’ based production– don’t typically cross-refer between releases
• Use ‘elevator statistics’ – e.g. 13 sectors increased in growth, while 8 fell’
• Explanations=more detail – ‘explain’ movements in our estimates by providing more
detailed estimates (‘drilling down’).
UK Experience Principles (continued)
• Occasional anecdotal evidence: – e.g. ‘Some businesses reported that World Cup 2006 may have contributed
to increased sales of football shirts this month.’
• Rarely attempt broader explanations – e.g. don’t say ‘foot and mouth has been a major factor affecting the
increased output of veterinary services this quarter.’
• Never make ‘political’ points– e.g. we would not say ‘the introduction of tax breaks for small traders may have
contributed to the increased activity in this sector in recent months.’
• Present ‘records’ – these provide ‘media fodder’ for Journalists i.e. ‘headline news’, rather than
a cogent assessment
•
UK Experience Face-to-face briefings
• Still cautious– don’t risk going off message, or providing a broader
interpretation.
• Further use of anecdote, and provision of more detail
• Never ‘forecast’ what the results may imply for what may happen next
• Occasional ‘Chatham House’ rule sessions: – e.g. quarterly Labour Market City Analysts meeting. This
allows for more open, none-attributable, remarks by ONS statisticians
UK Experience Rationale for current approach
• Time constraints– tight even just getting the standard results together.
• Consistency– Concern that changes in personnel may lead to changes in
interpretation – the so called ‘statistician effect’
• No clear user demand for anything else– True of policy departments and of analysts
• Organisational constraints– Make it hard to take a cross-cutting view
UK ExperienceRationale for current approach (continued)
• Systems constraints– systems very clunky and make non-formulaic approach
difficult
• Resource constraints– Only small team of economic analysts
• Natural caution– concern that ONS interpretation may be at odds with
consensus, or be deemed ‘political’.
What else might ONS do?
• Developing trend/cycle analysis– But note earlier observation– Issues with ‘wagging tail’
• ONS ‘Assessment’ box on statistical releases
• More detailed analytical articles– But not interpretation
• Greater emphasis on cross relating outputs– e.g. productivity, output gap, labour market, commodity flow
• Developing more open fora – e.g. under the ‘Chatham House’ rule
Conclusion
• ONS is an information service - little appetite for anything else
• ONS not in competition with policy Departments• Need for:
– Impartiality– Continuity
• Constraints– Resources– Time– Systems
• Some room to develop analysis, but not interpretation
Role of NSIs in analysingshort-term economic statistics
– the UK ExperienceRobin YoullDirectorShort Term Output Indicators DivisionOffice for National StatisticsUnited Kingdom
Recommended