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Raven’s Rock and the Raven’s Rock and the Tanawha TrailTanawha Trail
Sarah DochowSarah Dochow
Andrew MayAndrew May
Callie SafleyCallie Safley
PurposePurpose
• Estimate Value
• Determine Demand for the Environmental Resources
• Investigate Factors– Permit– Ranger Presence– Maintenance
TheoryTheory
• Demand Curve – Created by putting trips on the horizontal axis
and the travel cost on the vertical axis
• Consumer surplus – Region below the demand curve and above
the average price level
MethodMethod
• Random Interviews– At or near Tanawha Trail and Raven’s Rock– Hypothetical questions used to establish shifts
in the demand curve
• Demand curve– Derived from interview responses
• Confirmed confidentiality – Made results available if requested
DataData
• Sample size = 38 people
• Average Number of Trips to Tanawha Trail– 3.13 ± 0.67
• Average Number of Trips to Raven’s Rock– 1.907 ± 0.464
Data (cont.)Data (cont.)
• Average Willingness to Pay for hiking permit – $7.59 – SD = $10.81
• Average Travel Cost (.36*roundtrip distance)– $79.08 – SD = $113.76
Data (cont.)Data (cont.)
• 63% were male participants
• Average Education level was 3.5 years of college
• Average age was 34
• 74% were willing to pay for a permit
Statistical ResultsStatistical Results
• We took the natural log of RP-trips and add one to get the values for the horizontal axis: ln(trips+1)
• We had travel cost on the vertical axis calculated by: (.36*roundtrip distance)
• We had three possible demand shifters but only one was statistically significant at the 92% level: (1-pvalue)= (1-.08)=.92
Demand ModelDemand Model
CoefficientStandard
Error t Stat
Intercept 0.85 0.131 6.53
Demand Slope -0.0015 0.00062 -2.40
Park Ranger 0.028 0.171 0.165
Trail Maintenance 0.313 0.171 1.83
Consumer SurplusConsumer Surplus
• Consumer Surplus • Semi-log: –x/b; where x = Number of
Trips, b = travel cost coefficient• b = -.0015• Number of trips to Ravens Rock: x =
1.908; CS = 1.908/.0015 = $1272• Number of trips to Ravens Rock with the
quality improvement: Δx = 1.36; ΔCS = 1.36/.0015 = $908
Aggregate CSAggregate CS
• Individual ΔCS = $908
• Population of 5 counties = 903,568
• We assume that 5% are hikers (Outdoor Recreation Participation Study)
• Aggregate ΔCS = 41,021,987.2
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